God willing, the Gulf Coast may be spared Prince-William-Sound-like images of waves of tarry goo slapping ashore, while wild birds and cuddly mammals struggle for survival in asphaltine muck.
Last Friday, the Lafayette Daily Advertiser reported on the rescue of the first oil-covered bird Louisiana:
It was the only animal being cleaned late Friday morning, but rescuers expected many more to come in throughout the day.
Hmmm. Seen any more pictures? Me either.
Today’s news brings reports of dead jellyfish …
… it’s not uncommon to see jellyfish floating dead during high winds, but the number of dead found so far is beyond normal.
and sea turtles in Mississippi, at least 25 miles from the leading edge of the advancing oil.
Although this is the time of year when dead turtles are often found on the beach, scientists say the number is more than double what they would expect.
What gives?
Several factors may be at play in diminishing the shore impact of the current spill.
- Natural wave action will aerate and break up the slick. Chemical dispersants are being applied to speed up the process.
- The oil is lighter than the Alaskan crude from the Valdez spill, and hence is more prone to evaporate.
- The source of this spill is in open water some 50 miles from the nearest land, so the dispersants, the responders and Mother Nature have some time to do their thing before landfall.
If we apply a few calculations, we can figure out how dispersed the oil might be.
BP’s estimate is that the well is making some 5,000 barrels of crude oil per day. For convenience, we’ll say the well has been flowing for 14 days, or 70,000 barrels total. One barrel is 5.615 cubic feet, so the total volume of spilled oil is something like 400,000 cubic feet.
Let’s say the size of the spill is 50 miles by 50 miles, or 2,500 square miles. (Actually, the size of the spill’s extent as shown in the New York Times graphic below is more like 5,100 square miles. I’ve embellished the original NYT graphic to depict these theoretical & estimated areas.)
Four hundred thousand cubic feet of oil over 2,500 square miles is 160 cu ft per square mile, or just 1/4 cubic foot per acre. Spread uniformly over the entire 50 mi x 50 mi area, that would equate to a layer of oil 0.00007 inches thick.
And that’s if none of the oil has evaporated, which it has.
As we’ve seen in the pictures, the oil does tend to clump up in thicker ribbons. But the fact remains that much of the 5,100 sq mi is covered by “sheen”, which is what you get on the surface of a swimming pool if you go in after applying a generous layer of Coppertone.
None of this is intended to minimize the potential for damage to specific populations and localized areas. For example, a brown pelican rookery was devastated just a few years ago by a small volume of oil spilled in a very vulnerable place at a very vulnerable time.
As disappointing as it may be to some journos and enviros, the jellyfish and the sea turtle kills may well turn out to be natural events, unrelated to the oil spill. I’m praying that this spill event will end in the near future without a calamitous impact on either the wildlife or the human population of the Gulf Coast.
Cross-posted at VladEnBlog.
Moe Lane
Steve Maley
KnightsofMalta
Dan Spencer
Dan McLaughlin
I knew it .
NeoKong (Diary) Monday, May 3rd at 7:21PM EST (link)They have been pulling our chain.
All oil spills are bad but this one isn’t the coastal killer they said it was.
I’m glad.
It would have sucked.
Follow me on Twitter.
Vladimir- You put everything into perspective
Scope (Diary) Monday, May 3rd at 7:23PM EST (link)and also Brit Hume tonight reported, I believe from the 70′s when there were 200 and something oil spills/leaks, we have gotten that down to just 25 lately. And, the most of the leaks/spills came from the tankers bringing the oil into the country from those that do not like us much.
I heard something today about NOAA having already had the response capability/plans without needing approval, to respond to oil spills. But it was not engaged by the administration, until late in the game. Do you know anything about that Vladmir?
Not really. The Coast Guard is the "go to" gov't agency. nt
Steve Maley (Diary) Monday, May 3rd at 7:39PM EST (link)The blogger formerly known as ‘Vladimir’.
Anything that involves oil in the water has
Achance (Diary) Monday, May 3rd at 8:33PM EST (link)the USCG as first responder as they are the guardians and enforcers of the MARPOL regulations which are a treaty obligation of the US. Even if you only have a pleasure boat above a certain, fairly small, size, you have to have that MARPOL placard near your mechanical spaces with the 800 number for the USCG oil/polution response center – and if you spill oil, you’d best call them because it is a whole lot better for them to hear about it from you than for you to hear about it from them.
NOAA is mostly a research and observation agency as well as doing marine cartography. They have lots of ocean going vessels so they get involved in spill response but they are peripheral. Likewise FEMA only has a response duty in the initial incident command management team. If a federal disaster is declared, then FEMA becomes the US’s ATM for disaster relief; they’re not going to be out stringing booms or washing oiled birds. That was what was so unfair to GWB about Katrina with all the blame going to FEMA; it wasn’t their job to pull people off roofs, it was local and state government law enforcement and public protection then state ordered National Guard, and only with a federal declaration at the request of the state is there any federal involvement at all and FEMA’s only role is in incident command and in writing the checks.
In Vino Veritas
agrred, but one of the main reasons news reports play down the impact is to protect the slow boy President - nt
Mike gamecock DeVine (Diary) Tuesday, May 4th at 1:02PM EST (link)Mike DeVine’s Examiner.com, Charlotte Observer and The Minority Report columns
“One man with courage makes a majority.” – Andrew Jackson
It'll be ho-hummed by the "O"philes
anotherindyfilmguy (Diary) Monday, May 3rd at 7:32PM EST (link)who’d rather see us all slaves of a socialist state or be crippled economically from a massive oil slick hitting the shore before they’d do anything to risk the O looking bad…
Santorum? Well, at least he’s not Romney…
http://www.zazzle.com/enemy_of_the_statist_tshirt-235977043035297478
Rush had a guy call in today...
WoodstockRedCat Monday, May 3rd at 7:44PM EST (link)Who specifically mentioned a NOAA vessel that hadn’t been activated that they said had the best equipment to deal with measuring the environmental impact.
Vlad, I PRAY that the facts you have stated end up not making this the sealife and coastal industry killer that it could be.
Thanks for the reasoned, factual approach to this.
Greens should be thrilled now
CincoSolas_del_Bronx (Diary) Monday, May 3rd at 7:58PM EST (link)Major Victory Declared in War against AGW
5K bbl/day which will never be burned!
Increased albedo drastically reduces surface temp over massive area!
Those dreading urbanization should remember that though the Kingdom of God first appeared in a temporal Garden, at the end of the book it is established in an eternal City. (paraphrase, James M. Boice)
soli Deo gloria
And that dead sea turtle - one less CO2 emitter NT
David123 (Diary) Monday, May 3rd at 9:35PM EST (link)David123
Vladimir- What is your take
Scope (Diary) Monday, May 3rd at 8:01PM EST (link)on this article-
http://blog.al.com/live/2010/05/fire_boom_oil_spill_raines.html
My take is somebody has a boom they want to sell.
Steve Maley (Diary) Monday, May 3rd at 9:03PM EST (link)Booms work fine in calm seas. There has been some rough weather since the spill.
Oil spill experts tell us that the best thing is to keep the spill offshore & let the waves work it.
The blogger formerly known as ‘Vladimir’.
It's quite the coincidence.....
NeoKong (Diary) Monday, May 3rd at 8:23PM EST (link)As soon as everyone started to blame the lack of response on Obama suddenly the spill ain’t so bad anymore.
I have to hat tip that to acat.
“Hang the problem on Obama….and it all goes away.”
Follow me on Twitter.
Not only that, Neokong,
blooch Monday, May 3rd at 9:28PM EST (link)but the man who was praised for his calm unflappability during the campaign is back. The MSM has its legs on this story, finally:
“While the rabid right worked itself into a lather over Obama’s seeming inaction, our First Cool President was suavely multitasking behind the scenes. Boy, don’t his political opponents look foolish now. All that anger seems to have clouded their vision. Can they be trusted with any real power?”
Rush will have a mega-montage of talking heads parroting this line by Friday…heck, by Wednesday.
And suddenly, for the first time in ages, Greenpeas and the Earthfisters will find themselves shut out of the news cycle.
“Lieutenant Dike wasn’t a bad leader because he made bad decisions. He was a bad leader because he made no decisions.”
I think the oil spill story is being played to avoid...
LaborUnionReport (Diary) Monday, May 3rd at 10:49PM EST (link)the Enquirer story about BHO stepping out on Michelle.
Just a thought.
“I bring reason to your ears, and, in language as plain as ABC, hold up truth to your eyes.” Thomas Paine December 23, 1776
In any compromise between food and poison, it is only death that can win. In any compromise between good and evil, it is only evil that can profit.-Ayn Rand
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He told them to run the "stepping out on Michelle" stuff
blooch Monday, May 3rd at 11:29PM EST (link)because they were running too much “gay Barry” stuff. Make no mistake, they’re in his pocket just like the rest. Next week they’ll be running “Obama has a monster in his pants, Michelle is in awe” stuff.
lol
“Lieutenant Dike wasn’t a bad leader because he made bad decisions. He was a bad leader because he made no decisions.”
It's because Barry has been working on this since day one..
speciallist (Diary) Monday, May 3rd at 11:10PM EST (link)Day OOOOhhhh,
blooch Monday, May 3rd at 11:20PM EST (link)Me say day me say day me say daaaay oh.
“Lieutenant Dike wasn’t a bad leader because he made bad decisions. He was a bad leader because he made no decisions.”
NAVY from Day One? I strongly doubt that.
Steve Maley (Diary) Tuesday, May 4th at 12:10PM EST (link)USCG was involved from day one. Nobody will dispute that.
Janet should know the difference; USCG is DHS & works for her.
Navy is DOD.
I’d like to know which DOD assets were there from day one.
The blogger formerly known as ‘Vladimir’.
I hope you are right...
snowshooze (Diary) Monday, May 3rd at 8:36PM EST (link)But..I reserve judgment. The Gulf of Mexico is almost a Sea… the oil could possibly kill the entire Gulf.
Go look at it on Google Earth…..it isn’t a very encouraging prospect at this point.
Now, here in Alaska, we have a heavier oil. Good point, and even better than that, our water temperature is a lot colder than the Gulf, that is a great difference. When was our spill? I think ’85..
You can still dig a few inches into the gravels of Prince William Sound beaches gravels and hit a nice thick layer of gooey oil…forget the ” Recovered” bs you getta read, not a single clam in the old beds where you used to be able to dig more than you could eat all in one small hole.
My opinion..Obama wants the worst disaster he can get. He is already on his soap box yelling about BP. Instead of helping, as previously mentioned by others, sending the NOAA boat, or commandeering a couple shipyards to assist the fabrication effort for the emergency capping effort, he sends SWAT and Lawyers..
I’ll bet they are calculating the possible claims right now. So far as he is concerned, the worse, the better.
Strap down, I think this is gonna be a rough ride, and we are going to see devastating damage. But it is more than obvious, our fearless leader is no help, and could have saved us all a lot of grief, but he is not a leader. He will capitalize on this and milk it for everything he can get out of it. Bet on it.
I agree Obama will get off scot free
Doc Holliday (Diary) Monday, May 3rd at 8:44PM EST (link)just as Bush was burned at the stake for Katrina. But I doubt this will kill the entire Gulf, men smarter than Obama are working on it.
Molon Labe!
Even I am smarter than Obama...
snowshooze (Diary) Monday, May 3rd at 9:27PM EST (link)I am just crippled by morals, pride, honesty, respect and a few other vices that were bestowed on me by my progenitors..Grandparents and Parents…so I am a victim, right???
If I flushed all that down the toilet, I could be the biggest scumbag in history. Not even a problem.
I cannot lower myself to the level of Obama…and no interest to try.
So, unfortunantly, that probably puts me in the same boat as the rest of the RedStaters…hopeless individuals whom are inflicted with the poisons of honor and integrity…
As my old uncle once said, “Good guys always come in last.”
I hear it is different in heaven. I am banking on it, but I wouldn’t be any different anyway…
All those left-wing environmental greenies
The_Rebel (Diary) Monday, May 3rd at 11:37PM EST (link)that are not only seeking to stop the new off-shore drilling program for Virginia, but are also trying to roll back existing off-shore drilling in the gulf, may be in for a big surprise.
I don’t hear any such talk from the politicians and officials most affected in Louisiana, Texas, Mississippi or Alabama. In fact, the democrat senator from Louisiana, Mary Landrieu, recently compared the spill to the Challenger disaster. She said we didn’t stop the space shuttle program after that disaster, nor should we stop drilling because of this spill.
Further, in 1970, the U.S. produced about 10 million barrels of oil per day. We now produce about 5 million barrels per day. But we consume 21 million barrels per day. We import the rest. If the environmental left were to get their way, we would be producing nothing and getting all of our energy from either wind or solar, or from the likes of Chavez in Venezuela. Since wind and solar account for maybe 1% of our energy needs, good luck with that.
Maybe some of the saner heads on the left realize all of this, and are now starting to downplay their rhetoric.
The only talking points you hear from MSM?
Common_Cents (Diary) Monday, May 3rd at 8:47PM EST (link)How BP is on the hook for clean up costs, AND economic impact.
Glad to see obama immediately sent a swat team of prosecutors to help out. That’s what an oil spill needs!
Obama=Golfer in Chief, Leading from,
behind, the Back Nine.Leaders don’t create movements. Movements create leaders. Get involved. Your future depends on it.
Govt “invests” YOUR tax money for POLITICAL return rather than economic return.
Stay tuned - that's the topic of my next blog. nt
Steve Maley (Diary) Monday, May 3rd at 9:05PM EST (link)The blogger formerly known as ‘Vladimir’.
Right on Vlad..
snowshooze (Diary) Monday, May 3rd at 9:41PM EST (link)Don’t forget to mention how Gates said we have our foot on the throat of BP…with a smile.
That’s why I think they aren’t doing more to stop the mess, they want to vilify BP and sue them into oblivion… rather than pitch in and help stop the potential damage. The worse it is, the better it is….
Let the house burn down, and hopefully the kids will be in it so we can sue for more…
Sick bastards.
Gettum, Vlad.
Vladimir, what is this cement capping process?
hickorystick (Diary) Monday, May 3rd at 10:16PM EST (link)I’m hearing it leaking around a cap of cement that sets a blow-out valve??
If I understand correctly...
Steve Maley (Diary) Tuesday, May 4th at 9:27AM EST (link)… they were in preparation to “temporarily abandon” this well, to come back later with another rig to prepare it to produce. That process is called “completion”.
Part of the TA procedure is the setting of cement plugs in the well that are to be drilled out later. In this case, they did that, then closed their blowout preventer to displace the riser (above the BOP) with seawater. When they opened it again, there was a gas bubble.
This is based on a rig survivor call-in at the Mark Levin show.
Beyond that, I really don’t want to speculate.
The blogger formerly known as ‘Vladimir’.
What concerns me
Raven (Diary) Monday, May 3rd at 10:47PM EST (link)Is that same that concerns Rush:
Why the SWAT teams?
“If you do not have a sword, sell your cloak and buy one.”
Luke 22:36
It's a blitz of MMS inspectors...
Steve Maley (Diary) Monday, May 3rd at 11:05PM EST (link)…to all deepwater rigs.
DOI doesn’t have real SWAT teams.
Real SWAT teams are for septugenarians at Tea Parties.
The blogger formerly known as ‘Vladimir’.
Danderous misnomer
txgho1911 Wednesday, May 5th at 11:52AM EST (link)Corp USA is utilizing the term for lazy remote analysis of conversion problems or sold as rapid response trouble shooting and fixing technical team. Could be in IT fields or retail merchandising campaigns. The use of the term and topical subject is very broad.
They are not stationing S.W.A.T. teams on exploration and production facilities in the GOM.
S.W.A.T. = Special Weapons And Tactics
The misuse of the term is misleading and dishonest. Dangerous
another angle - the trial lawyers
MF (Diary) Tuesday, May 4th at 2:37PM EST (link)I can think of another reason why Obama hasn’t made more of a priority of getting the response team out there ASAP and getting it all cleaned up. The more damage, the more monetary damages that can be claimed. The trial lawyers will love that! We all know how deeply in bed the Dems and Obama are with those pond scum. (Now if only the oil sank to the bottom – the bottom-feeding trial lawyers would naturally clean it all up without being able to help themselves.)
Note that I’m not saying all lawyers are evil. Lawyers serve a great purpose, but far too many of them are just like John Edwards. And class action lawsuits are so frequently about making money for the lawyers, not about righting wrongs or anything constructive like that.
Jellyfish can go
Warrior (Diary) Tuesday, May 4th at 2:42PM EST (link)away with my blessings…
“Racial criteria are irrational, irrelevant, [and] odious to our way of life.” — Thurgood Marshall for the NAACP Legal Defense Fund in the 1950 Supreme Court case of McLaurin v. Oklahoma