Iowahawk Dismantles East Anglia ‘Value Added’ Data


Something for Geeks and non-Geeks

Taking a break from his regular (brilliant) schtick, Iowahawk gives us Fables of the Reconstruction:

In short, it’s a detailed how-to-guide for replicating the climate reconstruction method used by the so-called “Climategate” scientists. Not a perfect replication, but a pretty faithful facsimile that you can do on your own computer, with some of the same data they used.

It would appear that the boy knows a thing or two about statistics.

I’m an engineer who uses baby statistics by comparison. While Iowahawk’s disassembly of the CRU data will be of interest to technical folks, even non-technical types should find a new appreciation of what goes in to “adding value” to raw data measurements, and what a big deal it is that not all the raw data still exists.

What the leaked emails reveal, among other things, is some of that bit of principal component sausage making. But more disturbing, they reveal that the actual data going into the reconstruction model — the instrumental temperature data and the proxy variables themselves — were rife for manipulation. In the laughable euphemism of Philip Jones, “value added homogenized data.”

H/T and Happy Birthday to dennism


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14 Comments Leave a comment

The real damage to the world's economies

anotherindyfilmguy (Diary) Saturday, December 12th at 6:04PM EST (link)

these manipulative grant seeking charlatans are trying to do is the real catastrophe here.

Manipulating data for an essentially political/quasi-religious fraudulent claim they would bankrupt anyone they can and impose a draconian level of obedience to an entirely *new* lifestyle in which that they dictate all that is acceptable.

At least Communism for all it’s flaws seemed a bit more straightforward in it’s (ultimately failed) aims.

Those who seek power over others, no matter the cause, should be looked at skeptically and tarred, feathered and ran out of town on a rail as needed (at a minimum)…

Santorum? Well, at least he’s not Romney…
http://www.zazzle.com/enemy_of_the_statist_tshirt-235977043035297478

 

No one cares

opus402 Saturday, December 12th at 6:25PM EST (link)

just giving you cons a heads up…No one cares what you say.

The data the emails discuss has been available for years…it’s been studied for years. hacking in and cherry picking sentences isn’t going to prove anything except to show how easily cons are manipulated and controlled.

go ahead, scream and yell, you’re only proving what real Americans have been saying for years…now go sit in a corner, pray to your zombie lord and let the adults take care of the important issues.

G'bye

Neil Stevens (Diary) Saturday, December 12th at 6:54PM EST (link)

Fascists not welcome.

RS contributing editor, technical administrator, and “a hardy variety of crabgrass.”
Read the RedState Posting Rules

Unlikely Voter: Poll Analysis, Election Projection.

“I rejoice that America has resisted.” – William Pitt, the Elder

 

So, just to recap...

Steve Maley (Diary) Saturday, December 12th at 7:20PM EST (link)

These smart guys in a think tank worked the data and came to a conclusion… no need for anyone else to look at it and offer alternative interpretations.

How very scientific.

Here’s another scientific observation: “Sunlight is the best disinfectant.”

The blogger formerly known as ‘Vladimir’.

Haven't you heard? The Science is Settled

6eorge Jetson (Diary) Saturday, December 12th at 8:49PM EST (link)

because folks like Al Gore said so. No need to actually examine the scientific data. Move along…

 
 
 

Dangit

dennism (Diary) Saturday, December 12th at 7:08PM EST (link)

I had a real clever rejoinder to opus402′s vomitus but it looks like he withdrew his comments.

Thanks for the b/day greeting vladimir.

I withdrew it for him (nt)

Neil Stevens (Diary) Saturday, December 12th at 8:32PM EST (link)

RS contributing editor, technical administrator, and “a hardy variety of crabgrass.”
Read the RedState Posting Rules

Unlikely Voter: Poll Analysis, Election Projection.

“I rejoice that America has resisted.” – William Pitt, the Elder

If by withdrew we mean 'smashed up, like his account' (nt)

Neil Stevens (Diary) Saturday, December 12th at 8:32PM EST (link)

RS contributing editor, technical administrator, and “a hardy variety of crabgrass.”
Read the RedState Posting Rules

Unlikely Voter: Poll Analysis, Election Projection.

“I rejoice that America has resisted.” – William Pitt, the Elder

 

Rats.

Charles Cianfrocca (Diary) Monday, December 14th at 8:40AM EST (link)

So he really did write more than the title. Sorry I missed it; those things can be such a hoot, and I could have used a good belly laugh to start the week.

“Get your hand out of my pocket. Ain’t nothin’ there that belongs to you.”

- Sonny Boy Williamson

 
 
 

Excellent post at Iowahawk

WarEagle01 (Diary) Saturday, December 12th at 7:23PM EST (link)

Until reading the Iowahawk post, it never occurred to me that the “models” the warm-mongers have been talking about were simply OLS multiple regressions. I guess I was thinking scientists would have something really cosmic and sciency, especially since the policy implications of what they are peddling are so huge. And after reading that, what they are peddling is manifestly a load of crap.

“A wise, doughy leg with rich tingly experiences will always reach better conclusions than will a more tanned, muscular leg that hasn’t felt those thrills.” –Chris Matthews’ Leg

“The alternative to the awful extremity of abortion is the indispensable joy of introducing this flawed world to someone who might make it better.”–John Hayward (AKA Dr. Zero)

All models are wrong, but some are useful

tankertodd (Diary) Saturday, December 12th at 10:52PM EST (link)

George Box’s famous quote.

I don’t think you can prove a hypothesis (or rather, fail to reject one) with a model either.

———————————
The way to stop discrimination on the basis of race is to stop discriminating on the basis of race – Chief Justice Roberts

 
 

And what about R Squared?

tankertodd (Diary) Saturday, December 12th at 10:51PM EST (link)

Even if you assume Mann et al. are exactly right about their model, according to Iowahawk you get an R Squared of ,5, which means 50% of the “meaning 50% of the variation in actual 1856-1980 temperatures can be accounted for by the principal components (and by inference the original ice core and tree ring proxy variables).”

If we’re going to spend trillions on this, I want the science to be a lot more dead-to-rights than this. And tossing out your raw data is a major no-no. How do I validate the data cleaning effort? Those two things make this all a non-starter. Go back and get better science.

———————————
The way to stop discrimination on the basis of race is to stop discriminating on the basis of race – Chief Justice Roberts

 

And when Climategate shows...

skorrent1 (Diary) Saturday, December 12th at 10:54PM EST (link)

That the proxy values like Brissa’s MXD don’t come near matching “real temps” after 1960, and they ignored this, “hid the decline”, and published 850 years of “hockey stick” proxy data anyway …, well, can you spell f-r-a-u-d?

 

Excellent post! Thanks for the link.

6eorge Jetson (Diary) Sunday, December 13th at 12:09AM EST (link)