Scott Armstrong of the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania is co-author of a paper which was presented to the International Symposium on Forecasting in June. The conclusion: “The paper explained the need for simple methods and conservative forecasts in the face of uncertainty and complexity and pointed out that simple no-change benchmark forecasts are sufficiently accurate for policy decisions. In contrast, simple causal models with CO2 as the policy variable are not credible.”
Prediction markets for temperatures in three and ten years time agree that the no-change forecast is the more likely outcome than the IPCC 0.03C per annum forecast. Finally, similar (analogous) alarms in the past identified by the authors and others turned out to be false alarms. The slides for the talk are available as a PowerPoint file and as a PDF file.
In layman’s terms, Armstrong et al conclude that if you had to bet what the temperature will be in ten years, “the same as today” is a more accurate than any scientific model. And the no-change model is the one they recommend using for climate change policy.
This sounds absurd! Why, there is a well-known Scientific Consensus on man-made global warming! Do you think they’re wrong? Then here’s your chance to make some easy money: The Climate Bet.
Scott Armstrong of the Wharton School challenges Al Gore $20,000 that he will be able to make more accurate forecasts of annual mean temperatures than those that can be produced by climate models. Scott Armstrong’s forecasts will be based on the naive (no-change) model; that is, the forecasts would be the same as the most recent year prior to the forecasts. The money will be placed in a Charitable Trust to be established at a brokerage house. The charity designated by the winner will receive the total value in the fund when the official award is made at the annual International Symposium on Forecasting in 2018.
So far, Al Gore has proffered several reasons for declining the bet. Among the more laughable – “Mr. Gore does not make financial bets”. No, Mr. Gore likes a financial “sure thing’, like being a partner in Kleiner Perkins.
But, dear reader, don’t think that this bet is only available to Nobel laureates like Mr. Gore. You, too, can have a financial stake in the outcome! There is an Intrade market for the proposition “Gore vs Armstrong”. Betting Armstrong to win costs you $62 right now (to win $100); taking the Gore side of the bet would win $100 on only $38 at risk – over 150% profit! Given the overwhelming scientific consensus behind anthropogenic global warming, how can you possibly say “no” to this proposition?
Paradoxically, over the last 150 or so years, a 10-year forecast of “no change” has been more accurate 68% of the time, despite the fact that the underlying temperature trend is increasing.
[I encourage anyone with a curiosity about climate statistics to examine the linked Powerpoint presentation. It is full of interesting factoids like the following table, which should be titled “Correlation Does Not Imply Causation”. The authors examined several time-series data sets and evaluated each in terms of its correlation coefficient with respect to global temperature.]
| Variable | Correlation |
| Atmospheric CO2 1850-2008 | 0.86 |
| U.S. Postal rates 1885-2009 | 0.85 |
| U.S. Price Index 1850-2009 | 0.85 |
| NOAA* expenditure 1970-2006 | 0.82 |
| Books published in U.S. 1881-2008 | 0.73 |
| No change (naïve model) | 0.00 |
Steve Maley
Neil Stevens
Daniel Horowitz
We Must defeat obamacare - contact the Blue-dogs daily!
njre Saturday, August 29th at 7:44AM EST (link)Cap and trade next, but first we need to defeat obamacare aka the KILL BILL!
Please contact the blue-dogs! Writing to them does help! A Lautenberg assistant told me that every piece of communication is categorized and given a tracking number and tracked!!
Not much time left. Please write daily.
For your convenience:
List of their emails:
tessa.gould@mail.house.gov, john.zody@mail.house.gov, dean.mitchell@mail.house.gov, pia.carusone@mail.house.gov, kate.haas@mail.house.gov, trish.reilly@mail.house.gov, meg.joseph@mail.house.gov, scott.fairchild@mail.house.gov, peter.chandler@mail.house.gov, donna.pignatelli@mail.house.gov, susan.mcavoy@mail.house.gov, ron.carleton@mail.house.gov, denis.fleming@mail.house.gov, melanie.morris@mail.house.gov, stacey.alexander@mail.house.gov, brad.morris@mail.house.gov, april.metwali@mail.house.gov, lisa.quigley@mail.house.gov, ashley.jones@mail.house.gov, phyllis.hallmon@mail.house.gov, beecher.frasier@mail.house.gov, chad.causey@mail.house.gov, jason.buckner@mail.house.gov, matt.walker@mail.house.gov, drew.goesl@mail.house.gov, hayden.rogers@mail.house.gov, angela.kouters@mail.house.gov, sharon.wheeler@mail.house.gov, joe.bonfiglio@mail.house.gov, mark.brownell@mail.house.gov, tim.mccann@mail.house.gov, sam.marchio@mail.house.gov, linda.macias@mail.house.gov, vickie.walling@mail.house.gov, howard.bauleke@mail.house.gov, stuart.chapman@mail.house.gov,
rebecca.coleman@mail.house.gov, nichole.reynold@mail.house.gov, nichole.reynolds@mail.house.gov, scott.schloegel@mail.house.gov, sarah.benzing@mail.house.gov, drew.goesl@mail.house.gov, ms01ima@mail.house.gov, chad.causey@mail.house.gov, in09ima@mail.house.gov
Sample letter for ref.:-
Congressmen,
In a media conference call sponsored by Campaign for America’s Future, Congressman Stark called Blue Dogs “brain dead,” and went on to say:
“They’re just looking to raise money from insurance companies and promote a right-wing agenda that is not really very useful in this whole process.”
Are you going to take such nonsensical, ill-willed attacks from them?
Please stay strong, stand up tall! NO ONE can make you compromise on your principles. NO ONE can arm-wrestle you to go against the wishes of your constitutents! NOT Obama, NOT your fellow Democrats, NOT the illogical blind-supporters of obamacare which is simply government takeover of healthcare!
NO PUBLIC OPTION! NO COMPROMISE!
Thank you.
njre check this out
h ttp://www.scribd.com/doc/20917727/WHOARETHEBIRTHERS4-0
h ttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mpQlTN9kgfo
Oh, good. Another spammer. nt
Steve Maley (Diary) Saturday, August 29th at 7:54AM EST (link)The blogger formerly known as ‘Vladimir’.
This kind of statistical analysis
fmaidment (Diary) Saturday, August 29th at 8:30AM EST (link)is nice and makes an excellent point, but what is really needed is double-blind research, where the people doing the study don’t know who is paying for the study, and vice-versa.
Government research doesn’t count, either. Researchers know that, without the prediction of climate change, they won’t get climate change funding. They have a vested financial interest in predicting warming.
Follow Me on Twitter
“I would rather be exposed to the inconveniences attending too much liberty than to those attending too small a degree of it.”
– - Thomas Jefferson, to Archibald Stuart, 1791
Global Warming ... Proof
rickz77 Saturday, August 29th at 8:33AM EST (link)Global Warming is real.
The temperatures now in the Northeast are 50 degrees F higher than this past February.
At this rate, temperatures will be 1,000 F higher in just 10 years.
We MUST stop and Trade Caps immediately.
Anyone want a NY Mets Cap ??
no, just want
dsmurf (Diary) Saturday, August 29th at 8:54AM EST (link)K rod back with the Angels, keep your Cap
Save the planet - cut postal rates!
MikeWas (Diary) Saturday, August 29th at 8:44AM EST (link)U.S. Postal rates 1885-2009 0.85
This clear correlation requires us to take immediate action to slash postal rates to prevent future warming.
just the opposite Mikewas
kyle8 (Diary) Saturday, August 29th at 8:52AM EST (link)Save the planet, or at least save the trees by raising the bulk postal rate. I would raise it by a factor of 100 and cut out all the many many many huge tons of crap mail I get every damn day, Just think the savings to the forest, the savings in fuel, and landfill space.
In fact If I were the benevolent dictator of the country I would introduce capital punishment for any of the following: Bulk mail solicitation, door to door solicitation (this includes Mormons and jehovah’s witness), spam email. (If they did it from offshore I would launch military strikes into other nations to kill them.) And Telephone spam.
You should be inviolate in your own home!
“Nothing works like freedom, Nothing succeeds like liberty”
Kyle
^5. Sign me up. nt
Steve Maley (Diary) Saturday, August 29th at 8:59AM EST (link)The blogger formerly known as ‘Vladimir’.
Left wingers are so smug and think that they are the
kyle8 (Diary) Saturday, August 29th at 8:45AM EST (link)smart ones and we are so dumb. But let’s analyze the things they believe. They believe that a tiny increase in a gas that makes up a tiny bit of our atmosphere, and has a weak greenhouse effect is going to kill us all in ten years.
They believe that you can, indeed spend your way to prosperity.
They believe that when the government takes over something they will run it more efficiently and politics will not play a role in decisions. They actually believe that!
They believe that socialism is better for the majority of people despite the recent history of dozens of nations trying to crawl away form socialism and introduce market reforms as quickly as they can.
They believe that talking nice nice to madmen, thugs and dictators will keep us safe.
No, they are not smarter than conservatives, they are quite stupid.
“Nothing works like freedom, Nothing succeeds like liberty”
Kyle
Other, more useful correlates
Loren Heal (Diary) Saturday, August 29th at 8:52AM EST (link)To find some argument other than cum hoc ergo propter hoc, we have to dig a little deeper.
The number of communications satellites has, um, skyrocketed in the last 50 years, leading many to deduce that the heat from rocket blasts has warmed the atmosphere.
A look at the number of descendants of George Foreman. In fact, George is probably to blame for the whole mess, since his boxing career and infomercials drove the growth in satellite television viewing, first to get the pay-per-view boxing matches, and then to find something other than a commercial to watch.
–
Join the Concord Project, and follow @lheal, if you dare.
These guys are always wrong.
tomllewis (Diary) Saturday, August 29th at 10:01AM EST (link)If there is going to be “climate change” it’ll probably be colder, just because these guys – Malthus, Paul Ehrlich, Rachael Carson, Al Gore, etc have always been wrong.
I remember being really concerned in the early 1970′s when the “Environmental” movement began to seep into the culture. There were articles about it in such reputable publications as Time and Newsweek (yech). So I figured, it MUST be true. And then, guess what, er.. we meant Global WARMING. Which, is now Climate Change – so they’ll be right whichever happens.
So I guess I’ll bet on: it’ll probably be just like it is today. Then they’ll be wrong again. And we will only have wasted us a few TRILLION dollars.
tomllewis
Perspective
Paul_In_Houston Saturday, August 29th at 1:20PM EST (link)Let’s try for some perspective, time-wise.
For those comfortable with the metric (S.I.) system, imagine a line about 4.6 kilometers long (a bit under 3 miles). That would represent the 4.6 billion year age of the Earth at 1,000,000 years/meter; 1 mm (about the thickness of a paper clip) would represent a THOUSAND years.
That line would span the downtown area of quite a few large cities, with some to spare. Here in Houston, the downtown streets are 16 to the mile, making their spacing about 100 meters. Thus, that line would be about 46 blocks.
The reign of the dinosaurs ended around 65 million years ago (65 meters, about 2/3 of a city block down that line from today).
The first of our ancestors verging on intelligence may have emerged from 2 to 4 million years ago (2 to 4 meters, say 6.5 to 13 feet; your living room could be around 4 meters in one of its’ dimensions).
What we call “modern” man may go back 40,000 years or so (40 mm, TWO FINGER-WIDTHS on that line).
Written history goes back 6000 years (six millimeters, 1/4 inch on that line).
Fahrenheit’s thermometer is around 300 years old ( 0.3 mm, you’re approaching the thickness of a business card now, or the diameter of a grain of salt).
The portion of that time-line during which precise temperature measurements were recorded would be literally microscopic.
And from that portion, we dare to make really long range climate predictions, and mandate actions based on them? And decide to totally destroy our economy because of them?
I live about three miles west of some of Houston’s major downtown buildings, so it’s easy for me to visualize that line.
Looking at that time-line of Earth’s history (the universe’s may be four times that), and the flyspeck of our own existence upon it, the notion of asserting that ANY science has been “settled” strikes me as arrogance beyond comprehension (as in “only a politician could possibly believe that”).
-
anyone here take a science class?
wfku Tuesday, September 1st at 7:43PM EST (link)You do realize an american city was just destroyed by a hurricane right? also there was a tornado last summer in NYC, something thats never happened before, Does anyone remember hurricane andrew? You would think that it would have put jeb and the rest of the bush Atrocdynasty on the correct path, but whatever,
as a surviver of 3 hurricanes and 3 tornados (one in NYC) (one in Vermont) I would like to take to mention that talking about the weather is a big deal and much less banal then it used to be.
As a someone who has lived in NYC all their life, This strikes me as very odd. P.S. It used to snow here
But if you want, Ignore the world around you, keep looking at the computer screen, it really won’t matter if you don’t go outside
-Whiskey
www.WFKU.org
I've got a masters in Trollology(nt)
blooch Tuesday, September 1st at 7:52PM EST (link)“Lieutenant Dike wasn’t a bad leader because he made bad decisions. He was a bad leader because he made no decisions.”
He wasted a whole day to post his crap,blooch
Richard Mullins (Diary) Tuesday, September 1st at 8:33PM EST (link)It’s only fitting that he might not reappear for a while or might just lurk. Either way, we know who he/she is.
Richard Phillip Mullins BlogThe Squash Satire SiteNews on Happy Jet Airlines
Rmullins Pics
Rpmullins Twitter
Joe Biden is like a Decrepit Park owner with a Meth lab that happens to not only be a dealer but a user.
Let’s Bankrupt the Democratic paty. Make spend all the money to defend thier candidates.
Yeah, Skippy. I did. You need COOL air to meet with
Danielle Davis (ocleverone) (Diary) Tuesday, September 1st at 7:58PM EST (link)warn air to make a tornado.
You must have been on vacation March 2, 2009 when snow closed schools and canceled flights at the airports.
To me, “consensus” seems to be the process of abandoning all beliefs, principles, values and policies. So it is something in which no one believes and to which no one objects … There are still people in my party who believe in “consensus” politics. I regard them as Quislings, as traitors … I mean it. — Margaret Thatcher
Kowalski
Danielle Davis (ocleverone) (Diary) Tuesday, September 1st at 8:01PM EST (link)It should read warm air. My brain is fried from acquisition classes.
To me, “consensus” seems to be the process of abandoning all beliefs, principles, values and policies. So it is something in which no one believes and to which no one objects … There are still people in my party who believe in “consensus” politics. I regard them as Quislings, as traitors … I mean it. — Margaret Thatcher
I think the real problem is you don't understand science at all
Richard Mullins (Diary) Tuesday, September 1st at 8:01PM EST (link)If you did, you would have understood it. BTW, it wasn’t but a over a decade ago that the East coast got hit by a blizzard. Wild weather happens all the time(tornadoes here in Texas are common), we can’t say that more or less of them is due to “global warming”. Next time you have something to post, don’t be a troll or a Moby.
Richard Phillip Mullins BlogThe Squash Satire SiteNews on Happy Jet Airlines
Rmullins Pics
Rpmullins Twitter
Joe Biden is like a Decrepit Park owner with a Meth lab that happens to not only be a dealer but a user.
Let’s Bankrupt the Democratic paty. Make spend all the money to defend thier candidates.
einhard's observations
northwind1 Sunday, August 30th at 2:21PM EST (link)Between 829 and 836, Einhart, a man of noble birth who served for decades as a counsellor to Charlemagne wrote an account of the great rulers’ death as part of his “Vita Caroli”. “Many portents marked the approach of Charlemagne’s death” reports Einhard, citing events within a few years of the death of Charlemagne including eclipses of the sun and moon. Einhard was generous in his estimations of the timing of the events he talks of as “portents” but he could scarcely have been the only one of even the best educated men of the time to believe that in a time of great loss, the death of a great man, a great Christian leader, that signs and portents would occur. It is worth remembering that while Charlemagne himself was illiterate and remained so while he subdued the Saxons and came to control a country that included the whole of modern day Belgium and Switzerland, almost the whole of modern France and much of Germany he was a great admirer of learning and did much to promote literacy and learning during his life and long reign. Charlemagne, I would like to believe, would be fascinated to know that it is possible to not only predict eclipses of the sun and moon in the future with certainty but also to establish duration, path of totality and all the other parameters of an eclipse for dates going far back into history. Moreover, he would be astonished to learn that an average citizen with this marvellous tool of communication called the internet can go online and research historical eclipses of the sun and moon. There is some math involved in the calculations of these events obviously, but more than that it necessary to understand and accept as true the observations and models of our solar system which give rise to the math. We may still believe that coincident events are coincident for a purpose. As I said at the outset, any individual in the midst of a significant event may be forgiven the connection between what personally touches us and what may occur coincidentally. Some people have greater significance than others and many, many people may wish to believe that events in close conjunction with events involving great people are connected. And maybe they even are connected but the point is that by adopting certain habits of observation, by sticking rigourously to certain methods of analysis it is possible to take a still wondrous and dare I say, portentous, event and render it predictable and therefore clearly not sent to influence battles or mark the passing of great men. I do not think it ungodly to bring some wit to bear and to introduce a tad more rigour to our discussion of matters of great importance.