Promoted from Diaries – Soren Dayton.
As Jim Tedisco’s Finance Chairman I was in close proximity to some of the decisions that were made in the NY20 campaign.
I’ve known Jim for well over a decade and was very pleased when he asked me to help him raise money for his campaign. I assumed, and was correct; that it would be relatively easy to get donors to give to his campaign since everyone who knew him assumed he would win. I certainly did. We raised over $1.5 million in eight weeks (more details on that in a later post). The Republican candidate in the 2008 race had only brought in $1.1 million in 16 months.
Here was a well-liked state legislator, who became the Minority Leader of the New York State Assembly. He earned some national attention in successfully challenging Governor Spitzer when he tried to float giving drivers licenses to illegal aliens, which had garnered him support as a strong leader. We all thought: how could he possibly lose to someone who hadn’t done a thing in the district and who had zero name recognition?
Because I consider him a friend, and have been friends with some members of his campaign staff, I don’t want to delve into who did what and point fingers. What I do want to write about, briefly, is my opinion of the two main reasons why he was defeated.
1) He should have come out against the Stimulus bill on day one. I had a few discussions with the campaign “leaders” to find out why he didn’t do this. The answer seemed to revolve around the polling that showed a 48-48 split. As the 20th CD has been trending more and more Democrat every year since Bush won in 2004 I understood their thinking. But personally, as a conservative, I wanted him to come out against it, and plainly say that the $787 billion wasn’t really a Stimulus bill, it was a big spending bill. WHICH IS WHAT IT IS.
2) He should have had his TV ads peppered with at least 50% positive ads. Jim had a great story to tell, as was shown by the overwhelming victory he had in Saratoga County (almost 1/3 of the district) where everyone knew him.
Had he come out strongly against the Stimulus he would have been carrying the torch for most republicans and every conservative thinker in the country. It would have been the same message that propelled thousands of people to the Tea Parties. It would have defined him as the fighter that I have known him to be.
Once he took that middle road, taking no position, his opponent was able to define him as a “typical politician.” Lesson learned: Sometimes you have to ignore the campaign professionals and act on principle.
It’s sad for many of us in the 20th district and sad for Jim who put his life into the race 100%.
I still believe that conservative ideas will win out in America, over time, because they are the best ideas to elevate the whole country.
(This item has been cross posted on TheNextRight)
Daniel Horowitz
Neil Stevens
Steve Maley
Jake Walker
You forgot it's NY. 39 is better than 68. -nt
Rod_Patrick (Diary) Sunday, April 26th at 1:52PM EST (link)Issues that worked
SteveLA (Diary) Sunday, April 26th at 2:15PM EST (link)tom
Your after action report is interesting, but out of curiosity, what issues besides coming out against the stimulus were working with the electorate in your district?
Sort of when Jim Tedisco spoke on the stump about X people seemed to listen, seemed to resonate with what he was saying. I realize that sort of response is hard to gauge, but overtime with the campaign you might have got a feel for what connects with ordinary folks in your district.
______________________________________
Competency over ideological purity and litmus tests
Issues that worked
tomllewis (Diary) Sunday, April 26th at 2:38PM EST (link)steve,
I was so immersed in fund raising that I paid little attention to what the campaign was doing (other than the OBVIOUS, which is what I just wrote about).
That said, the only issues that I can recall that resonated were: 1) he continually said he wouldn’t raise taxes, 2) he was against Card Check (thank god), and 3) he railed against Wall St. & the AIG bonuses.
The bulk of his appeal IMO was his personality. He is a very engaging, and a very motivating speaker.
tomllewis
Thanks
SteveLA (Diary) Sunday, April 26th at 5:49PM EST (link)Tom
Good information, appreciate your answer.
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Competency over ideological purity and litmus tests
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exitsfunnel Sunday, April 26th at 3:20PM EST (link)That’s an interesting After Action Report and I agree that NY-20 is exactly the kind of blue state district in which vigorous opposition to the stimulus would have played well.
I do have a question about advertisements though. Your diary implies that he went primarily negative. Not living in or near the district I didn’t see much of it, so I’m wondering whether he attacked Murphy personally or the Obama administration, or what?
The only ad I saw, was the one posted on Redstate a couple of times which used Murphy’s opposition to the death penalty as an excuse to trot out the 9-11 hijackers and I remember just being gobsmacked with how politically tone-deaf it was and hoping that this was not something which was going to actually make it onto the airwaves.
-exits
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tomllewis (Diary) Sunday, April 26th at 3:49PM EST (link)example of one script:
Scott Murphy is a self-proclaimed liberal from Wall Street…
…who gave himself a bonus while others lost billions in retirement savings.
Used tax loopholes his own party condemned.
Caught hiding investment overseas … Bankrolled jobs overseas, then tried to hide it.
And Murphy discriminates against our men and women in uniform.
I’m Jim Tedisco, and I approve this message because I’m fighting for jobs, lower taxes, and YOU.
tomllewis
Thanks
exitsfunnel Sunday, April 26th at 4:05PM EST (link)Attacking him for having been successful on Wall Street is an interesting approach as, in a normal cycle, it’s what you’d expect from the democrats not the GOP.
One last question: do you expect Tedisco to be the nominee in the 2010 cycle?
-exits
2010
tomllewis (Diary) Sunday, April 26th at 4:10PM EST (link)It’s too close to March 31, 2009 for me to guess what might happen in 2010.
tomllewis
I like it.
Thrhheggeegwc Jjtkylkfofud (Diary) Sunday, April 26th at 4:10PM EST (link)But I think it needs a quote to go with the troop discrimination line to flesh it out a little more. Also, a very short blurb about Tedisco’s plans, just before the sign-off line.
Follow-up comment below. (nt)
Thrhheggeegwc Jjtkylkfofud (Diary) Sunday, April 26th at 4:17PM EST (link)I don't have a problem with negative campaign advertising.
Thrhheggeegwc Jjtkylkfofud (Diary) Sunday, April 26th at 4:16PM EST (link)Well-founded, fact-based negative campaign ads makes voters scrutinize candidates more, and prevents candidates from basing an entire campaign on vague bromides and unfulfilled promises. I do not, however, appreciate campaign ads composed entirely of smears.
I suppose Tedisco’s ads could have been a little more positive, but I thought most of them were spot on.
If you ask me what Tedisco’s main problem was, I would have to say Tedisco. IMHO, he was a pretty lame candidate.
negative campaigning
tomllewis (Diary) Sunday, April 26th at 4:27PM EST (link)George, I also don’t mind negative campaigning either, if it’s well-founded and fact based. I know they work. My point was that it seemed as if it was 90% negative and I was suggesting more balance – especially in the beginning few weeks.
But the ads were of a secondary issue – at least with me. Not taking a strong position on what I thought was THE most important issue fed into his opponents narrative about Tedisco – he was just another “Albany politician.”
I also observed that it seems as if there’s a different “standard” between Republicans & Democrats. I believe that it’s only Republicans (many of who are RINO’s) who don’t like it when Republicans go negative. Whereas Dems love it when a Dem attacks a Republican.
tomllewis
Tom, I Think You Nailed It
IJB Sunday, April 26th at 4:50PM EST (link)I think the problem was that Jim Tedisco was too easily labeled as a “just another career” politicians.
I also think failing to oppose the stimulus, and his anti-Wall Street populist rhetoric (which generally does not play well with Republican base voters), were both examples of tone-deaf campaigning.
But I really think being labeled a “career politician” in the current environment (and I expect this environment to last at least through 2010, if not 2012) is pretty much *death* to most candidates running for office, esp. GOP ones.
This anti-’career politician’ mood, as much as the points about the stimulus position and the populist rhetoric, is the message that must get through to the RNC and the Republican campaign committees.
Because the Republicans running Jim Tedisco/John McCain/Orrin Hatch-type career politicians for most of the House/Senate/Governor seats that open up in 2010 will, I can almost guarantee, be a losing proposition. (The only prominent exception I can think of is Castle in DE…)
I think you might want to look at Stay-at-Homes
Section9 Sunday, April 26th at 10:25PM EST (link)How many rank-and-file Republicans decided that Tedisco wasn’t willing to take a stand on the Stimulus issue. Hand this to Murphy, at least he was willing to play to his Base.
Yah, there’s a time for Negativity, but a coherent argument against trillions of dollars in new debt would have resonated. I suspect there are huge numbers of latent Perot-style voters that can be mined in this district, and I don’t think that Jim, much less the RNC, caught on to the demand for fiscal discipline in hard times.
Let’s see Jim go at it one more time. He’s a good guy. I just don’t like the way the campaign was handled at the RNC level. I know you guys did the best you could, however.
“History will be kind to me, for I intend to write it”-Winston Churchill
Stay at homes
tomllewis (Diary) Monday, April 27th at 6:04AM EST (link)Your comments are right on the mark. a coherent argument against all the spending and debt WOULD have resonated.
I agree that Jim is a good guy, but I think the chances of him running for the set again are near zero.
tomllewis
Honestly the issues don't matter...
Aaron Gardner (Diary) Sunday, April 26th at 4:38PM EST (link)Consistency does….the bottom line in any election is do you or do you not allow your opponent to define you. If you are consistently principled you make that much harder for them to do. Once you delve into micro targeting and varying principles by issue you lose…that is if you are a republican…democrats don’t have this problem because they don’t work on principle at all…they only pander pander pander…while waiting for the opportunity to make their opponent look like a hypocrite.
conform and celebrate diversity….or else!!!
“We’d be much better off if We The People had desired small government enough to keep it.” acat
Follow @Aaron_RS
Aaron is right
olsmithie (Diary) Sunday, April 26th at 5:02PM EST (link)Character is not the main issue, it’s the only issue!
Please keep us posted on future developments.
Don’t beat yourself up with self reflection and “if only’”, except where it helps next time.
We are proud of you guys for putting up the good fight.
The only way to actually lose is to quit.
I see no quitters here.
Regards
Aaron is right
tomllewis (Diary) Sunday, April 26th at 5:15PM EST (link)I agree with both of you. One of the reasons why Ronald Reagan is so frequently identified as such a solid conservative. He was principled and had great character.
tomllewis
Aaron you are absolutely right.
antisocial (Diary) Sunday, April 26th at 5:49PM EST (link)Jim allowed himself to be defined by Scott’s campaign as a career politician.
While Scott came out For the stimulus, Jim’s response was at best muted.
Jim never pointed out the budget deficit NY is facing and the budget for this year is still more than last year. That Albany can’t keep spending the money it doesn’t have. And Gov. Paterson wants to pay this deficit with Stimulus money.
Jim did not really say what he was “for”. Lower taxes and jobs is something that doesn’t work New York. New Yorkers have learned to live with it.
I don’t think he missed a lot.
The overall mood in the country was anti GOP. We are not done with hangover. While post-mortem of defeat is vital, I still think it was an OK campaign if not very good. He fought and lost. In this environment which is very hostile to GOP to come so close to my mind is pretty good.
This seat is winnable… If only…. Lets fight better going forward.
Obama Doctrine – Boot On The Throat
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What is to be done?
——————————
No. You can’t – Moe Lane
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The Emperor has no clothes!!!
winnable
tomllewis (Diary) Sunday, April 26th at 6:16PM EST (link)I also agree that the mood was still anti GOP, and as to a hangover… I can really relate to that. Working as hard as many people did, it’s pretty depressing. And most of us thought it was winnable. Such is politics.
tomllewis
For all the Dem Triumphalism, Jim came Close.
Section9 Sunday, April 26th at 10:27PM EST (link)A lot of D’s are fat and happy about this race, but let’s be clear, for a D trending purple district, Murphy should have done better.
NRCC should keep this on its Blue to Red list.
“History will be kind to me, for I intend to write it”-Winston Churchill
Right. Magic of Barack Obama's historic win(???) has not worn off yet from majority of electorate
antisocial (Diary) Sunday, April 26th at 10:58PM EST (link)Nationwide it’ll be lot more interesting next year. Though media will do its best to keep this historic and greatest thing going, I believe most of the voters will be out of this mindset.
Let us not scream for blood ( Leonidas / IJB ). While it is frustrating to see our candidate loose, the backlash and screaming doesn’t do any good. We got to learn from every defeat or even victory and not repeat our mistakes.
Obama Doctrine – Boot On The Throat
—————————–
What is to be done?
——————————
No. You can’t – Moe Lane
——————————
The Emperor has no clothes!!!
Magic
tomllewis (Diary) Monday, April 27th at 6:12AM EST (link)I also believe that the Magic is wearing off. The spending, taxing & borrowing cannot be sustained.
tomllewis
Jim came close
tomllewis (Diary) Monday, April 27th at 6:09AM EST (link)Jim did come very close, doing 12 points better than our last candidate Sandy Treadwell (of course that was with Obamamania sweeping the district). But I really think he should have won, and my original post was only to try to learn from the race for the next time.
tomllewis
Consistency
tomllewis (Diary) Sunday, April 26th at 4:44PM EST (link)Aaron, I think you are exactly right, on every point.
tomllewis
Fought a Good Fight
red4ever (Diary) Sunday, April 26th at 4:58PM EST (link)You only lost by 400 votes in a district that had been trending democract. A win would have bee nice. But, as has often been stated here, in a democracy, sometimes the other guy wins. Stick to your principles and come out fighting another day.
The hottest places in hell are reserved for those who, in times of great moral crisis, maintain their neutrality.
Dante
Sticking to principles
tomllewis (Diary) Sunday, April 26th at 5:07PM EST (link)Thanks for the Dante quote Elizabeth. I know that if I were ever to run for office, this race taught me more than ever to stick to principles. And on this one, it seemed so clear cut. The Stimulus bill is a such a boondoggle and so many people get it.
tomllewis
TomLLewis, thank you for not only posting the diary
mbecker908 (Diary) Sunday, April 26th at 5:28PM EST (link)but for responding to the comments. Too often we get incumbents, candidates and staffers who post here, and they just toss the diary into the mix and ignore the comments.
Please come back. And encourage Jim to drop by as well.
Comments
tomllewis (Diary) Sunday, April 26th at 5:38PM EST (link)Maybe it’s because I’m neither an incumbent, candidate or staffer. Just a volunteer. Or more likely, I’m very new to blogging and find the whole process fascinating. It’s great discussing something we’re all passionate about.
The trolls do get annoying though. They like to argue. I like to discuss.
I also have great respect for Erick. I’ve learned a lot getting into Twitter, blogging and FB. There are are some very smart and talented people I can learn from.
tomllewis
Tedisco Blew It!
leonidas Sunday, April 26th at 5:45PM EST (link)I voted for Tedisco.
But he was a TERRIBLE CANDIDATE.
He doesn’t't live in the district. He came across as an Albany hack who isn’t very bright. He didn’t seem to have a clue about what he thought, or why, and the good-looking liberal Harvard guy ate his lunch.
It was a huge error not to nominate John Faso or Sandy Treadwell.
The NY State Republican chairman should resign. There was no reason to lose this race. But now with reapportionment coming, a chunk of Albany will be dumped into the district and it will be Blue forever. Nice going, Republicans.
(Remember that Mr. Barrret, former chairman of the NY State Republican Party, is having a fundraiser for Andrew Cuomoe (!) if you want to see how pathetic is the NY State Republican apparatus.)
Leonidas
And This Is Exactly Why Tedisco Can Not Be Allowed to Run Again in 2010 (nt)
IJB Sunday, April 26th at 6:40PM EST (link)(I’ve appreciated your local insight into this race over these past weeks, BTW…)
We need good candidates
leonidas Monday, April 27th at 10:40AM EST (link)Thanks.
We Republicans can’t win tight races with second-rate candidates.
I’ve met Scott Murphy in business and he is sharp. Tedisco is not; it’s that simple.
The fact is, that this was a winnable race with the right candidate.
Gillibrand crushed Treadwell. She was popular in the district and Treadwell (whom I also know, slightly) did not make a compelling case for why NY 20 should replace a well-like and energetic incumbent.
The fact that the margin ended up being a few hundred votes (out of 150,000 cast) shows that this was winnable — a Democratic victory was not a foregone conclusion the way it is on, say, the Upper West Side of Manhattan — but it was not winnable by a nonentity like Tedisco.
The Dems were smart and we weren’t and there’s no excuse for it.
Leonidas
winnable
tomllewis (Diary) Monday, April 27th at 11:18AM EST (link)I agree with you that the race was winnable. That’s why I volunteered my time to raise money. I was sure it WAS winnable. Your point about the margin of error CLEARLY shows that.
And who the candidate is, is always THE most important thing.
I also agree with your statement that: “The Dems were smart and we weren’t and there’s no excuse for it.” I’ve wished to be smarter my whole life.
I don’t think there was anything in my original post that said there WAS an excuse for it. If so, it was not my intent.
tomllewis
umm...
cannedjam (Diary) Sunday, April 26th at 7:05PM EST (link)“Lesson learned: Sometimes you have to ignore the campaign professionals and act on principle.”
With all due respect, acting on principle is the only way the Republican party will become relevant once again.
Until the party roots out every member who is not acting on principle they will not gain the widespread support of conservatives at large. Sure we have been voting for the Republicans as the lesser of two evils, however, to spark a grassroots groundswell of support we need anti-candidates that do not need “professionals” to tell them how to think.
http://cannedjam.com
umm...
tomllewis (Diary) Sunday, April 26th at 7:15PM EST (link)THAT’s exactly what I was trying to say. I guess I wasn’t being articulate.
I do agree with your comment:
“Acting on principle IS the only way the Republican party will become relevant once again.”
That WAS the lesson that I hope would be learned.
Sorry if I wasn’t clear.
tomllewis
Campaign Imagery
dld1717 (Diary) Sunday, April 26th at 9:35PM EST (link)The race once agin proved to me that Imagery still wins day to most voters
A youthful, family oriented guy vs Career politician with bit of Sopranos in him ( I am Italian so I can say this)
Voters love the young guy with cute family
campaign imagery
tomllewis (Diary) Sunday, April 26th at 9:54PM EST (link)A very astute observation. That is what campaign consultants ARE good at. Murphy’s team was the DCCC, who is very very good at imagery. Thanks for your comment.
tomllewis
Age Group Problem
tedpomeroy (Diary) Sunday, April 26th at 10:08PM EST (link)Look at the NY 20. The WWII generation is disappearing a the polls.
We need new strategies.
age group
tomllewis (Diary) Monday, April 27th at 5:53AM EST (link)Good observation. I know the demographics of NY20 well, and that older generation WAS very Republican. They have been dying off. Younger people living here tend to be Dems or Independents.
tomllewis
Age Group Problem
tedpomeroy (Diary) Monday, April 27th at 7:36AM EST (link)See No Student Left Behind posting.
Refreshing
jeffreywturner (Diary) Monday, April 27th at 3:35AM EST (link)It is refreshing to at least have a campaign staffer voicing his opinions after a losing campaign in an open forum rather than as an unnamed source for the MSM, as those cowards working for John McCain did.
“Life is too short, can’t we all just eat pork and kill some terrorists?”
Your point on campaign "professionals" does not go far enough.
Martin Knight (Diary) Monday, April 27th at 4:43AM EST (link)Newt Gingrich referred to Republican campaign consultants as a fundamentally stupid class of people with no sense of history or capacity for long-term thinking.
NOTE to all Republicans; the job of a campaign consultant is not to tell you what position to take, whether it be in a campaign or in office. It’s your job to figure out your position and it’s his job to help you sell it.
That’s how it’s supposed to work.
"professionals"
tomllewis (Diary) Monday, April 27th at 5:58AM EST (link)Martin, you are so right. The more distance between election day, the more frustrated I am that something so simple could have been abandoned “because the polling said so.”
I have heard Newt say that many times, and once again he’s been proven right. It must be annoying to Newt, because he was very helpful with the NY20 race. Very disappointing.
Thanks for your comment.
tomllewis
Thanks for posting this Tom. We can learn more from our failures
Brian Hibbert (Diary) Monday, April 27th at 7:32AM EST (link)than we learn from victories. But only if people will honestly analyze the defeat and change whatever tactics didn’t work.
I especially liked this paragraph:
“Once he took that middle road, taking no position, his opponent was able to define him as a “typical politician.” Lesson learned: Sometimes you have to ignore the campaign professionals and act on principle.”
Though I would break them out as 2 separate lessons.
“Once he took that middle road, taking no position, his opponent was able to define him as a “typical politician.” ” This is how Blago won Illinois last time. He defined Judy Topinka for Governor and her response was weak. He spent about a year running negative ads on Judy and positive ads on himself in about 50% measure. Judy burned most of her cash fighting a primary campaign.
“Lesson learned: Sometimes you have to ignore the campaign professionals and act on principle.” As stated above, a Republican always has to stand on principal.
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learning from failure
tomllewis (Diary) Monday, April 27th at 7:43AM EST (link)Thanks for your comments Brian. I’ve certainly learned more from failures (in as life as well as politics) than from successes. That’s probably because failures are so painful.
This is certainly one I will never forget.
tomllewis