Insider Advantage has new polling out for Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Florida.
Romney leads in New Hampshire and Florida with Cain second. Gingrich is 3rd in Florida and Paul third in N.H.
Cain leads in Iowa and South Carolina with Romney second in both. Gingrich is third in Iowa and Perry third in SC.
The breakdown is at RCP, I won’t list them all here as they are numerous. If you have a favorite state and are interested in the numerical breakdown the link is at the bottom, but most know where the polls section of RCP is.
The question was pretty basic “If the Republican presidential primary or caucus were held today would you vote for ( and then they name all the candidates.)
Not sure how reflective the polls are, but Santorum and Huntsman may need to do a little soul searching.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/
Victoria Coates
Daniel Horowitz
Looks like Perry is suckin' wind everywhere. nt
Jim Tomasik (Diary) Monday, October 17th at 10:01AM EST (link)….
Perry doesn't have the poll numbers to win.
jackdaniels11 Monday, October 17th at 7:30PM EST (link)And Cain doesn’t have the money to compete in states like Florida, Texas, New York, and California.
Luckily, there is a candidate who has the brains, the experience, and the likeability to win.
And he won’t pass a 9% national sales tax.
well he would have the money
tngal (Diary) Monday, October 17th at 7:57PM EST (link)If everybody who said ” Cain can’t win” would send a dollar.
Or those who said ” Cain who?” would send a dollar
Or those who argued “but he’s not a politician” would chip in fifty cents.
No he doesn’t have it now, but to fight back the two money machines nipping at his heels it will take all the grassrooters to chip in. Because right now the big name players are too afraid he’ll slip down so they won’t caugh up the cash. More than anything they want to back Perry so they don’t have to support Romney. But that Cain guy is posing quite a conundrum, because he might actually have the support.
yeah, Jim it does (but don't say that loudly)
tngal (Diary) Monday, October 17th at 10:11AM EST (link)I wasn’t gonna say that here for fear of rotten tomatoes being thrown at me. Then again, I don’t know much about Insider Advantage and the polls left some details out. Like was it done via online, cell or landline phones, people in shopping mall etc. Little skimpy on the methodology.
That SC poll is the one I thought was interesting.
Jim Tomasik (Diary) Monday, October 17th at 10:31AM EST (link)Has FL moved there primary ahead of SC now?
SC is 1/21 and FL is 1/31 (I think)
tngal (Diary) Monday, October 17th at 10:48AM EST (link)If my grey cells remember right SC is still before Florida. And New Hampshire and Nevada are duking it out for other prime dates. A few of these candidates would do well to look at their money and the timing and make a tough decision. I know T-Paw feels he got out to early but come on, if you haven’t gotten a foothold now when are you going to get one.
new CNN/OpRe numbers are in. Romney-Cain Virtually tied
tngal (Diary) Monday, October 17th at 4:33PM EST (link)I say virtually because there is a one point differnce . Romney 26, Cain 25 which falls within the MOE. Perry has 13, all others single digits.
Once again you can check out the numbers at RCP. Or check more info from CNN. BTW this was more of a nationwide poll I guess rather than state specific as the Insider Advantage from above.
Check out this poll and see where McCain was...
gekster (Diary) Monday, October 17th at 4:40PM EST (link)at the same time before the 2008.
Clinton 32%
Giuliani 22%
Obama 19%
Edwards 13%
McCain 11%
Thompson 9%
Romney 7%
It’s anybodies game.
And I’m not comparing 2008 with 2012.
I’m showing the meaningless of polls this far out.
They say Republicans are for the rich, Democrats are for the poor.
If they need more voters,
then they have to make more of who they are for.
We are there in the various Tea Party groups, leaderless, but not rudderless.
We steer always toward the Constitutional principles this nation was founded upon.
Erick Brockway
Ok folks, 2012 is here. Get involved
gekster, don't let neil hear you say that
tngal (Diary) Monday, October 17th at 5:05PM EST (link)I’m looking at every poll coming down the pike this year because I’m looking for the trends that tell will me more people are getting motivated. What many are showing , apart from leaders and laggers, are how many people say I can change my mind, or I’m not firm, stuff like that. Also if people aren’t looking at polls now, and they are hopelessly enamored with say a Huntsman or Santorum who remain at the bottom, then they are deluding themselves.
I like Cain and Bachman and Newt. But who do I send five or ten bucks to when I get a few extra bucks? The answer lies in what the rest of the nation is doing. I can’t send much but I don’t want it wasted. I don’t believe Bachman and Gingrich can get back up. So it will go to Cain who needs it as he has momentum. Romney and Perry obviously don’t need the money.
As to your chart above, yes I gave to Fred. And I’ve never once regretted it.
Also, I would never tell Neil S. polls mean nothing early on. He might whack me with something.
All polls are not created equal.
acat (Diary) Monday, October 17th at 5:34PM EST (link)Head-to-head and “who do you love”* polling, this far out, is not predictive. Favorable / unfavorable trends, however, can be useful.
This may be why Neil doesn’t cover all the polling, eh?
Mew
*
——

Caveat Suffragator
I agree with you on this one, kitty.
westcoastpatriette (Diary) Monday, October 17th at 5:44PM EST (link)Polls this early are totally fickle. RSers are not normal voters, either.
Neil doesn't use a poll....
gekster (Diary) Monday, October 17th at 6:04PM EST (link)from today to pick the winner on 11-2012.
They say Republicans are for the rich, Democrats are for the poor.
If they need more voters,
then they have to make more of who they are for.
We are there in the various Tea Party groups, leaderless, but not rudderless.
We steer always toward the Constitutional principles this nation was founded upon.
Erick Brockway
Ok folks, 2012 is here. Get involved
No the polls aren't predictive, but they can be educational
tngal (Diary) Monday, October 17th at 6:17PM EST (link)As I pointed out so I know where i want to send money. Also if a trend is showing low support in say Alabama, given my locale, I can hop down for an afternoon and do door knocking. Not a huge need if my presumptive candidate is so far down it won’t make a difference or already leading by a wide margin then they wouldn’t need me. Plus, looking at the other states numbers are interesting.
No they’re not predictive, but they provide information. And since when was learning a bad thing. I don’t bet the farm, but I like to help out in primaries too not just a general.
McCain Never led in polling in 2007
jimmyg Monday, October 17th at 6:03PM EST (link)McCain polled in a somewhat narrow range, but never led in the polling. Guilliani and Thompson led most of the year. The most dramatic difference is that Gov. Perry started out strong, and for a time led in the polls, and once the electorate kicked the tires, decided on Cain, at least for the time being. I wonder if there is any analogous situation where a candidate announces, leaps to the top of the polls, and within two months flames out.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/28141/gallup-poll-review-john-mccain.aspx
Question: Just when ARE we allowed to look at polls
tngal (Diary) Monday, October 17th at 7:46PM EST (link)I get its early for some people and not a lot can be read from these early polls. But do we pick a candidate in say, August, then hang on for dear life till we read in the paper they’ve dropped out? If we really like our candidate we probably can’t be swayed with a little negativity. its going to take a serious blow. Like say losing much of your support across the nation. What’s wrong with keeping up?
So, if we’re not allowed to peek now when can we take a peek?
Look at polls all day long.
gekster (Diary) Monday, October 17th at 8:00PM EST (link)Don’t use them to make up your mind though.
Do YOU let anyone tell YOU what to do. How to live.
Are YOU going to let people YOU have never met say who YOU should vote for.
At this time, YOU look at the candidates and find the one that most adheres to YOUR values and principles.
YOU vote for them in the primary.
If YOUR candidate wins, then good.
If not, then YOU vote for the Republican in the general election.
I emphasize YOU because it all falls to all of us YOUs to vote.
And using polls to pick a candidate is like putting a finger in the wind,
and then going that way.
It may not be the way to go.
They say Republicans are for the rich, Democrats are for the poor.
If they need more voters,
then they have to make more of who they are for.
We are there in the various Tea Party groups, leaderless, but not rudderless.
We steer always toward the Constitutional principles this nation was founded upon.
Erick Brockway
Ok folks, 2012 is here. Get involved
geks, you're a little outa line
tngal (Diary) Monday, October 17th at 8:18PM EST (link)I thought i made it clear how I use the polls. I knew who my candidates were. Early on. As time passed , I was able to slim it down based on not only what the candidates said but I also looked at what others are saying. I keep an open mind.
As i’ve stated I could got with Cain, Newt or Bachman. If Newt’s numbers were where Cain’s are now I’d be sending him money. Or if Bachman was up there, same thing. But I send what little I have partly based on what I believe to be momentum. Sorry, but if I just blindly gave to Newt now I think I’d be wasting my money. I could be wrong. And door knockin’ at this point is not going to help MB or NG a whole lot. I see nothing wrong with lending support at this point in the game. Its not just the polls, its the totality of what I read, and what i see when I go to a rally, what my neighbors are saying and yes the momentum I find in polls.
So do these unknown people three states away have a little sway in where I put my money? Just a bit, yeah. Totality is the key word.
Stating facts is not out of line.
gekster (Diary) Monday, October 17th at 8:22PM EST (link)I am clearly within the margin.
But you go ahead and let the polls tell you who to vote for.
You don’t want to think for yourself, that’s fine, it is your perogotive.
They say Republicans are for the rich, Democrats are for the poor.
If they need more voters,
then they have to make more of who they are for.
We are there in the various Tea Party groups, leaderless, but not rudderless.
We steer always toward the Constitutional principles this nation was founded upon.
Erick Brockway
Ok folks, 2012 is here. Get involved
tngal- You obviously like the poll numbers
Scope (Diary) Monday, October 17th at 8:16PM EST (link)for your candidate Cain right now. You are putting all of your eggs in the basket of polling numbers. The polling numbers have been all over the place over the last few weeks. Wait until things start settling out before you jump on the Cain bandwagon, before you believe that the polls have made your guy the new inevitable. Wasn’t Romney there last week, or yesterday?
scope,
tngal (Diary) Monday, October 17th at 8:24PM EST (link)please read reply to gekster up above. thanx. Didn’t see you respond. Not saying he’s inevitable. But if I want someone to win over, say Romney, who has been annointed by the media, what’s wrong with sending money. And rather than take ten bucks and dividing it three ways, between three favs I chose a system to send where i believe it’ll do the most good. Hey if Bachman’s up at the middle of next month, she’ll get my money. Same with gingrich. Or I can send nothing to any of them and say, ya’ll are great but you’re on your own.
Good to know tngal
Scope (Diary) Monday, October 17th at 9:03PM EST (link)That you support candidates depending on where they are in the polls. Do you have any values, principles, or positions that you hold candidates to other than where they are in the polls? I really did think that voters looked for a little something more than who is polling first. I thought we got off that roller coaster, but you prove we haven’t.
What is with you guys and the word totality
tngal (Diary) Monday, October 17th at 9:32PM EST (link)Did you not read where I said totality? I know their stands on obamacare, on 2nd amendment, on israel, on illegal immigration, on Tarp, Guantanimo, the gold standard, budgets and on a boatload of stuff that matters to me. Based on reading, going to rallies, watching debates, (that’s probably a negative too) listening to neighbors, interviews on news, and yea catching the polls.
WHAT I SAID WAS…. I have several candidates whom I like. I like to give money and time to my candidates. I cannot give to all whom I like so I support based on a number of factors INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO where they stand in the polls. Polls are one of several factors. Did you understand all the different factors I listed above.????
No I’m not giving to Romney. (he’s not a choice for one of my candidates.) No I’m not giving to Santorum. (not high enough) No I’m not giving to Huntsman (squishy) No I’m not giving to Perry because he has enough money to choke an elephant and i like others more. No I’m not giving to Sara (she’s not even running) and No I’m not giving to Christie (for several reasons, including not running) No I’m not giving to Paul (nuff said)
Newt and Bachman could still earn my money and my legs when resources allow provided it really can benefit them. But how can it benefit them if they’re at 2 percent in polls and Cain is at 20??? My five bucks and two feet can’t swing their movement that far!
I like to think of myself as thorough. I take it if I would have left out the whole part about reading polls ya’ll would’ve been happy as pigs in mud.