1. Stimulus and Unemployment: Real vs. Projected (Source)

This chart is taken straight from the Obama administration, and was used by them to sell the $800,000,000,000¹ economic stimulus bill. The only change has been to fill in the actual unemployment numbers. There are two conclusions one can reach here:

1. By their own numbers, the stimulus has made the situation significantly worse than it would have been had we done nothing. We should not have done it.
2. As the ability to make accurate predictions is the true test of knowledge, we can safely assume that they simply don’t know what they’re talking about when it comes to the economy. This is also a good reason not to let them burn $800 billion.

2. The Deficit (Source)

Though this chart was not put together by the White House, the numbers come directly from them and the Congressional Budget Office. The next somebody tries to rhetorically ask why people weren’t up in arms about Bush’s spending, you need merely show them this graph.

3. Partisan Composition of Antiwar Protests, 2007-2009 (Source)

Personally, I find this the most damning one of all. As you near the 2008 election, Democrats find themselves extremely interested in the Iraq War. As soon as their guy is elected, this interest disappears. As the months pass, the War continues, but somehow Democrats never regain much of an interest in protesting it.

It’s exactly what you would expect to see if you thought that they protested the war not because they cared about the war, but because they didn’t like Bush. What makes this especially troubling is that it is not merely Democratic politicians playing politics with the war (one can’t expect too much in the way of ethics from politicians), but the Democratic rank and file. I’d wager this tracks rather directly with your own experience; you surely know people who were once concerned about the war. Have you heard anything from them recently? Because the war is still on; the only difference is that Bush’s policies are now being run by a guy with a D after his name.

¹ For comparison, the past 7 years of the Iraq War have cost about $719,000,000,000.

Pat Toomey, the Pennsylvania Republican who scared Specter out of the primary and who will likely take his seat in the next election came by Lancaster this morning. I joined the crowd to hear what he had to say and find out how I could be of assistance. Here are my notes, jotted down from memory a good 6 hours after the event.

Toomey gave his background and a quick rundown of a few of the problems with the recently rammed-through Obamacare. He emphasized in particular the fact that we don’t have the money for it, pointing out that Obama’s deficits are far, far worse than even Bush’s worst. He pledged to do everything in his power to repeal the bill, stealing the thunder from me, since that was going to be my first question. It was a pretty good spiel, giving a decent amount of information in a brief amount of time, then opening the floor to questions.

At one amusing point, somebody expressed concerns that Toomey had described himself as a moderate, and worried the he would turn out to be just another RINO. Toomey seemed a little offended, and invited everybody to look at his record in the House, as well a pointing to his history with the Club For Growth.

I asked how he would respond to those who say that the Republicans will never be able to repeal an entitlement. He said that it would be tough, but this is also a special case. Because the Democrats structured the bill so the taxes kick in early and the entitlements don’t kick in until much later in order to lie about the cost, the entitlements won’t actually be there yet if the Republicans can capture the Presidency next election.

He also discussed ways Republican can fight back earlier if (as he and I think likely) they win back at least one house of Congress. The vast sprawling bureaucracy that will be required to put this into action will require funding, and Congress can simply refuse that funding. It is a promising path that I’ve heard talk of elsewhere.

One guy asked him who was on his shortlist for president, to which Toomey laughingly said that he probably shouldn’t answer that. Nevertheless, he did say that there were several guys he thought would be good. In particular, he said nice things about Indiana governor Mitch Daniels.

A guy with a thick accent asked for Toomey’s views on immigration reform. Toomey said it was complicated. He opposes amnesty because it it wrong to reward people for breaking the law and encourages further lawbreaking. On the other hand, he does feel we need to improve the immigration process so that people who want to come here and work hard are not hindered from doing so. It is not an issue that I care about deeply, but it was interesting to hear brought up, especially since Democrats are likely to try to use it as a wedge issue for the upcoming elections.

“Common sense” conservatism was the major theme. Cap and Trade was mentioned, which will hit industrial Pennsylvania especially hard. Other more local concerns were also touched upon (there was a brief digression about some new regulations on tractor drivers, for example). Overall, good show. I’ll need to do a little more research, but barring any big surprises, he has my vote.

The battle over this health care thing has gone on for so long that it's easy to lose track of everything that has transpired. For your reference and mine, I've mapped out a timeline of major promises and events. As ever, I've sourced everything for your fact checking pleasure. Normal links go to outside sources; * goes to another item on the timeline. Timestamps may be late by a few days; they tend to be the date of the earliest source article I could find, which may not be exactly the same as the event described. Close enough for government work, as they say. 1940s. US Government imposes caps on wage raises. In an effort to still pay better workers what they're worth, companies offer more generous health insurance. 1943. The IRS rules that employer-provided health benefits are tax-exempt. "Insurance" that covers events with a 100% chance of occurring thus becomes the norm. ca. 1985. A young Obama buys liability insurance for his car. It gets rear-ended, and the law school graduate is shocked to learn that liability insurance is different from collision insurance. He vows to one day make sure that every American is forced to buy insurance for every aspect of driving, and that no car is ever denied coverage because of the pre-existing condition of having been totaled. (I may have dramatized this slightly, but only slightly.) 2008 Democratic Primary. Candidate Obama distinguishes his health care plan from that of Hillary and Edwards by pointing out that it does not include an individual mandate. He even runs a campaign ad against Hillary, warning voters that her plan "forces everyone to buy insurance, even if you can't afford it, and you pay a penalty if you don't." 2008 Campaign. Candidate Obama promises repeatedly to air all health care negotiations on C-SPAN, exercising complete transparency throughout the process. 2008 Campaign. Candidate Obama attacks McCain for the 'Cadillac tax' in his plan. "The bottom line: the better your health care plan – the harder you’ve fought for your good benefits – the higher the taxes you’ll pay. You see, Senator McCain would pay for his plan, in part, by taxing your health care benefits for the first time in history." September 12, 2008 "I can make a firm pledge: Under my plan, no family making less than $250,000 a year will see any form of tax increase. Not your income tax, not your payroll tax, not your capital gains taxes, not any of your taxes. You will not see any of your taxes increase one single dime." - Candidate Obama. January 20, 2009. President Obama is inaugurated. Take a moment to go back and review those campaign promises I listed. Before this timeline ends, every single one of them will be broken.

This was the moment when the rise of the oceans began to slow Last week was wonderful politically. It started off with a Republican winning in deep-blue Massachusetts by running against the health care bill, which in turn probably killed off a bill that was so bad they had to insert special bribes into it just to get Democrats to vote for it. Plus, it foreshadows good things for the Republican party in upcoming elections. Far more significantly, the Supreme Court finally killed the abomination that is McCain-Feingold, concluding that "Congress shall make no law... abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press" really does mean that you're not allowed to suppress a political documentary. Finally, Air America went under, which wasn't a major story, but topped the week off nicely. Brown's victory is somewhere in the middle of the other two in terms of importance, but it's the one I'm interested in talking about. One year ago, after their massive victory, Democrats were gleefully declaring that the Republicans were going to spend a generation in the political wilderness. Honestly, while I was not happy about the results, I always found this unlikely for a pair of reasons. The first is that I've been spending the past eight years building up a political memory, and could easily recall that not long ago the Republicans were talking about building their own "permanent majority." This wasn't without basis either; they expanded their congressional majorities in both the 2002 and 2004 elections, which is not how it usually goes for the president's party. Things changed, and they would surely change again. The wheel turns.

“We are God’s partners in matters of life and death.” -President Obama

For a conservative political junkie such as myself, the recent debate over the health care plan has been great fun to watch. Obama’s poll numbers have been tumbling, conservatives have been mobilized, and somehow the Democrats are having difficulty passing things through a Congress where they control both houses with filibuster-proof margins. Having failed to rush a thousand page bill through by the original deadline of three weeks ago, it seems desperation has set in. On one side, you’ve seen a lot of people voicing their concerns about potential consequences. On the other side, you have people declaring that all those people with concerns are liars, or, as Obama recently put it “bearing false witness.” Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid even coined the term “evil-mongers” to describe protesters (I am not making that up), and the White House has gone so far as to encourage supporters to report anybody who says something “fishy” about health care. (Again, I am not making this up.)

Especially odd is that it is near certain that the people declaring others to be liars have not actually read any of the several bills in question, which you’d think would be an important step when declaring that something is not in there. (House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md) actually laughed at the idea that congressmen should have to read bills, a view shared by at least one of his colleagues). I haven’t read them either, but I have followed enough to know that there is sufficient reason for concerns, such that the proper answer should be more than “you’re a liar!” What follows is essentially a cheat sheet of reasons why the supposed myths are in fact plausible.

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“To avoid being mistaken for a sell-out, I chose my friends carefully.” – Barack Obama, Dreams from My Father

As you well know, the election is nearly here. If you’re like most people, you probably know a fair amount by now about Joe Plumber’s background (he goes by his middle name! The horror!), and you may even have heard a bit about Palin’s wardrobe, but you could likely tell me little to nothing about the background of Barack Obama, Presidential Hopeful. Well, that need no longer be the case! Before you, I lay an exhaustively researched probe of the various people who have been influenced him in his thinking and helped get him where he is today. At the risk of giving away the ending, it’s not a pretty picture.

For reasons of space, I have had to omit a great deal. There are a number of ties I haven’t even touched on in here. I have been careful to leave no claim unsourced, and have followed the data back to the most primary sources possible, so long as that didn’t involve actually leaving the house.

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Obama likes to claim that he’ll push for greater openness in government, but so far he has failed to do so in his own campaign. All the records from his time in the Illinois Senate have mysteriously disappeared, and he has been minimizing press access to his campaign as much as possible. Though supporters like to claim that he has released his medical records, in fact he only released a one-page summary, declaring him to be in "excellent health."