I’ve decided to go in a radically different direction with this latest post.  Instead of spouting off opinions, which you can all get anywhere else on here (or any other blog), I’m going to get bold and actually offer predictions here that I’m willing to be held to.  Today, in early June, I think we have enough information now to safely make predictions for the rest of the calendar year.

Also, on most blogs, political predictions tend to have the unfortunate quality of reflecting the desires of the predictor.  As you can see below, most of what I predict below is NOT what I’d like to see, but what I expect reality to be.  Keep in mind, I’m NOT rooting for what’s going to happen below, nor am I being unnecessarily pessimistic to offset whatever biases I may have.  I’m just calling it as I see it.

Important Note:  All predictions are based on the premise that there are no dramatic surprises in 2009 (ie:  new terrorist attacks in USA, shocking events in Iraq/Afghanistan, economy completely collapsing, major White House scandal, etc).  If any of these things occur, all bets are off.

With that in mind, here goes:

Economy:  Continues to underperform economists’ expectations.  Stock market plummets to mid-5000s before ending 2009 in high-6000s.  Unemployment surpasses WWII-high at 11.2% in late 2009 before it drops a notch to 10.9%.  A second, smaller stimulus ($250-$300 billion) bill is passed in late autumn in response to this.  More tea parties follow, but bill passes regardless.

Iraq/Afghanistan:  Very little news.  Higher than expected casualties in Afghanistan as a variety of secret operations unfold there.  Difficult to get any decent news reported on exactly what’s going on there.  In Iraq, small uptick in dramatic terror attacks in Baghdad, while ironically small-scale attacks in Baghdad and throughout the country decrease.  Plans stay, more or less, on course for major US withdrawal in 2010.

Future of Gitmo:  White House decision is finally made to build major expansion to Supermax facility in Florence, Colorado, where Gitmo detainees will be moved to.  Colorado congressional delegation goes apesh*t and vows to fight it tooth-and-nail, but Obama will cut secret deal with Reid & Pelosi to rush thru a late-night vote on funding it in an amendment to a major appropriations bill.  Colorado delegation votes “No” unanimously, but is ultimately powerless to stop it.  Obama announces Gitmo will stay open several extra months beyond original Jan 2010 deadline to wait for construction in Colorado to finish, and will amend his original Executive Order accordingly.  Despite enormous White House pressure, less than 50 of the 240 current detainees are accepted by foreign nations before the rest are moved to Colorado.

Health Care:  Obama offers up surprisingly center-right health care plan…on the surface.  In an effort to get something passed quickly, Obama will appear to eschew single-payer, and offer something similar to Mitt Romney’s Massachusetts plan, which makes health care a responsibility for all individuals to purchase.  Obama will actually team up with the Blue Dogs in the House to get a bill drafted, which will pass.  Devil is in the details which will include hidden aspects, such that if the plan is underfunded at all, federal government will pick up the tab, which sets in motion the conversion of the entire plan to a single-payer-like system in several years.

Republicans will expose these flaws, which will scare off some Blue Dogs, which will ultimately result in a grand compromise bill which removes some, but not all, “poison pill” aspects.  Reid threatens to use reconciliation process to pass a very leftist health care plan as leveage, and Republicans fold.  Ultimately, a wierd hybrid center-left bill which has both personal responsibility (for young, healthy, above-poverty individuals) AND single-payer aspects (for very poor individuals) passes.  Bogus CBO and OMB numbers show plan to be relatively cheap, but real numbers come out soon after Obama signs it.  Nobody is particularly happy, but Obama gets his health care plan passed in 2009, and Congress vows to revisit the issue in 2010.

Sotomayor:  Only Jon Kyl & Jeff Sessions on Republican side go after her during her hearings.  Kyl presses a little too hard, and Sotomayor snaps back quite viciously, exposing her Latina temper.  Republicans sense a chance to make hay about her temperment, but only conservatives are outrraged.  Democrats, especially Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) on committee, who attempts to make a name for herself as primary Sotomayor defender, are rattled but remain unanimously behind her.  Sotomayor’s snapping does galvonize most Republicans against her, though.  No committee Republican is willing to support her, so Sen. Pat Leahy (D-VT), as Chair, is forced to embarassingly change the committee rules in a straight party-line vote to get her out of committee.   Once on the floor, no filibuster is even attempted and Sotomayor is confirmed in a near-party-line vote by the Senate, 62-38.  The only Republicans who vote for her are the two female Senators from Maine.  All Democrats support her.

2009 Midterm elections:  Democrats hold the Governor seats in both VA & NJ by the narrowest of margins (less than 2% in both), with NJ actually being closer and going to an automatic recount, because Corzine bombs badly in his two debates with Christie.  Republicans are happy they made small gains in both houses of both legislatures in each state.  Both parties, predictably, claim victory with the results.  Obama stays out of both races, for the most part, only doing radio ads and/or lending his voice to robo-calls.

Obama approval rating:  President Obama ends 2009 with a 58-39 approval-disapproval number.  Obama never goes over 67 or under 55 in approval for the rest of the year.  His disapproval is at its highest (39) at the end of the year.  The poor economy ever so slowly (for Republicans’ taste) keeps slowly bleeding away support 1% point at a time, but he does recover 5 points the day after he signs health care reform in mid-October, but the drain restarts.  Internal White House polling (never released to the public, but is leaked) shows that public still blames Bush for bad economy, but is unlikely to accept that as an excuse starting in 2010, forcing Obama’s political team to shift strategies and find new scapegoats, which will include references to “Wall Street” among other unpopular groups.

Overall:  2009 just isn’t a good year for the GOP, no matter how you slice it.  Yet there’s reason for hope.  The public still finds Reid & Pelosi distasteful, and Reid enters 2010 in real danger of defeat in Nevada.  Dick Cheney continues to aggressively defend the Bush Administration on all fronts, and in shocks of shocks, manages to boost his approval rating to 45 and Bush’s to 47, which is far higher than they are today.  It also helps the Republican brand bounce back several points, which was desperately needed.  Obama is still widely popular, but not as widely.  Weak economy is still the #1 issue headed into 2010 and forces both parties to shift their entire political strategies based on that.