Virginia may very well prove to be an early predictor of results on Election Day 2012. Obama desperately needs to hang onto Virginia’s 13 electoral votes in order to be reelected. Although he would still have a path to victory, especially if he manages to retain a Pennsylvania or Ohio (although I am putting them in the GOP column at this point), it would create greater pressures on his chances in North Carolina or Florida. I still firmly believe this race will come down to Florida, especially since they get two extra electoral votes in 2012. However, the vital importance of Virginia cannot be taken for granted.

In 2008, Obama won Virginia with 52.6% of the vote. A close analysis of that election indicates that there was a lot of red territory on the map of this state. Where Obama concentrated on was the more “liberal” areas of the DC suburbs and other growing urban areas of the state. The only highly populated counties he won outside the DC area were Ablemarle in the north central part of the state and Montgomery County in the southwestern part of the state. Obviously, this will be his strategy going forward in 2012. Any Republican inroads in these areas will eat away at that 52.6% vote count and spell trouble for Obama. Polling out of the DC suburbs especially must be closely monitored. Also, note that the GOP does not have to win these areas, just make them close to prevail.

With a hotly contested Senate race coupled with some interesting House races along with a fairly popular Republican governor and an Attorney General at ground zero in the Obamacare case, Obama has a lot of work to do in Virginia. When assigning these electoral votes, I generally look to approval ratings from a variety of sources in the particular states. For Virginia, he stands at 47.5%. Generally, that is close enough to push him over the 50% of the vote threshold for victory. The trend in Virginia mirror those nationally. Not to burst the bubble of anyone, but at this point I would have to assign Virginia’s 13 electoral votes to Obama.

The Senate race was made interesting when incumbent Jim Webb decided not to run. There were inklings since he ceased fund raising. Some polling indicated that he would have problems in light of GOP gains in 2010. Some polls even showed him trailing George Allen. That then left the door open for Tim Kaine to enter the race. He is the former head of the DNC and also a popular former Governor of Virginia succeeding Mark Warner. His tenure as governor certainly does not cast him as a liberal, but more of a centrist. He opposes abortion, but does not call for over-ruling Roe vs. Wade. Although opposed to capital punishment, he resided over 11 executions. His accomplishments as mayor of Richmond cannot be overlooked either. Still, his electoral history is one of winning close elections on a statewide basis.

With minimal token primary opposition, Kaine should enter the general election rather unencumbered. He has a rather sizable war chest and his connections when head of the DNC should provide additional money as needed. Since he was tapped by Obama to run the DNC, that could have its advantages, or disadvantages depending on which way the political winds are blowing in October 2012 in Virginia. Only Courtney Lynch, a consultant, has been mentioned as a possible outsider type roadblock to his candidacy especially since the more popular ex-congressman, Thomas Perreillo declined to run after Kaine announced he would run.

On the Republican side is former Governor, congressman, and Senator George Allen. In 2000, he won the Senate seat by defeating incumbent Chuck Robb. His voting record was fairly conservative while a Senator. In 2006, he ran for reelection against Webb and was moving towards another term until the infamous “macaca” incident. It will not be recounted here as I am sure it will throughout this campaign. Technically speaking, Allen fits the mold of a good fit also for Virginia. The only real knock on him is these comments- some real, but others unsubstantiated.

Unlike Kaine, Allen will face a tougher primary challenge. Some polls put Allen way up, even against the generic “more conservative” choice. Bob Marshall of the Virginia house of delegates is one person. However, the one I find interesting and intriguing is the head of the Virginia Tea Party Patriots, Jamie Radtke. From everything I have heard and read, if I were a Virginia resident, I would give her a good long look (and I am not necessarily a booster or cheer leader for the Tea Party). Since Virginia opted for a primary, the advantage goes to Allen. Still, keep an eye on Radtke in the future.

In hypothetical polling thus far, there is tremendous back and forth. Interestingly, when a state senator, Allen represented Ablemarle County and that could pull votes from Obama there. Of course, both candidates are well known to Virginia voters. Many decisions will be last minute. However, if I had to, I think the advantage at this point currently lies with Kaine. Thus, and this could change with the wind, the seat should remain in Democratic hands.

The current House delegation is 8-3 Republican. Population changes within the state mandated changes in boundaries with the overall effect being not a GOP over reach, but making sure incumbents were protected. The 1st District, comprised of the Tidewaters region, gained Caroline County, but lost Hampton and Newport News. Incumbent Rob Wittman should win reelection here. Likewise, Randy Forbes in the 4th is more safe as his district now extends from the North Carolina border to the suburbs of Richmond, but loses the Democratic stronghold of Petersburg and parts of Suffolk. Robert Goodlatte’s 6th District extends along the West Virginia border and includes some of the most conservative areas of the state including Lynchburg. Eric Cantor will win in the 7th. Finally, 10th District representative Frank Wolf has an area that stretches from the DC exurbs to the West Virginia and Maryland borders. He received more conservative territory, but some that could open him to a primary challenge in the future, or a strong Democratic challenger. In 2012, it will a former Assistant Secretary of the Navy, John Douglass.

That leaves three Democratic districts and three held by freshmen Republicans. Bobby Scott’s Third District is the only minority one in the state. Before redistricting, it was 53% minority and 60% afterwards. That has brought on a chorus of subtle racism innuendo and assertions that the state is concentrating blacks in one district. However, that district was 64,000 under the ideal and thus added Hampton, Norfolk and Newport News as well as Petersburg. The 8th- the bulk of the DC suburbs including Alexandria and Arlington- should be an easy win for Jim Moran. And Gerry Connolly’s 10th, which includes Fairfax and the far western suburbs of DC, became more Democratic.

As for the freshmen Republicans, the 2nd changes little and includes the western shore and Virginia Beach. Scott Rigell, the strongest of the freshmen, remains vulnerable to a strong Democratic challenger in the future, but not this year. The 5th- held by Robert Hurt- grew and now extends from the North Carolina border to Fauquier County, a fast growing suburban county. Finally, the Ninth is represented by Morgan Griffith and comprises the southwestern area of the state which is very conservative territory and should remain in his hands.

In conclusion, this is a state so close on the edge that a minor event one way or the other can change outcomes. Although I predict an Obama win in Virginia, it will be very close. If the electoral vote is very close, the results in Virginia may be fodder for a recount. Also, I think Tim Kaine will prevail, again by a very small margin. The only area where a prediction can be made with any confidence is with the House races where the current 8-3 makeup should prevail.

Running count thus far:
Obama with 246 electoral votes to 223 for the GOP
net gain of 2 Governors;
net gain of 4 Senate seats, and;
net loss of 7 House seats.

Next: North Carolina

George Allen’s Senate campaign has a new ad out on the President’s decision to nix the Keystone XL pipeline, and how that decision adds another link to the chain around Tim Kaine’s neck:

It’s a pretty good ad.

However, I suggest that while the pipeline decision is terrible policy, there are potential winners: the railroads.

Increasing rail transport of oil from Canada is an interesting way around the problems of building a pipeline that the administration’s green allies just don’t want. and according to this report, railroads could eventually carry far more Canadian oil than any pipeline on the drawing board. And this bit is too rich to ignore:

The study commissioned by the State Department estimated that rail alone could haul 1.25 million barrels of Canadian crude daily by 2030, or nearly twice the amount of the proposed pipeline.

“U.S. and Canadian rail sectors have a history of expanding to meet clearly defined demand increases,” according to the study, which cited North Dakota’s booming oil patch as a recent example.

That would be the same State Department the White House over-ruled in its Keystone decision.

A truly cynical mind would say that blocking the pipeline, with the clear understanding that railroads could more than make up for the difference, was actually a gift to one of the President’s great supporters: Warren Buffett. Through Berkshire Hathaway, Buffett owns Burlington Northern Santa Fe (BNSF). And yes, the company ships petroleum products, even from Canada’s oil sands, though its partnership with CN.

Amazing thing, those fungible commodities. They always find a way to market.

OK, let me try to explain just what is going on in this court order involving the VA GOP primary ballot. For those who came in late: back in December, Virginia’s primary registration system ended up producing a result where only two Republican candidates (Mitt Romney and Ron Paul) qualified for the ballot. This resulted in some frankly unkind things said about virtually everyone involved in the process, from the candidates to the Republican party of Virginia – usually involving competence levels, although conspiracy theorizing certainly wasn’t underrepresented. While that was going on, Gov. Rick Perry filed a lawsuit (one later joined by Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, and Rick Santorum*) challenging the constitutionality of the process. Yesterday the judge hearing the case ordered the Commonwealth of Virginia not to issue absentee ballots; today’s order explains why.

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OK, let me try to explain just what is going on in this court order involving the VA GOP primary ballot. For those who came in late: back in December, Virginia’s primary registration system ended up producing a result where only two Republican candidates (Mitt Romney and Ron Paul) qualified for the ballot. This resulted in some frankly unkind things said about virtually everyone involved in the process, from the candidates to the Republican party of Virginia – usually involving competence levels, although conspiracy theorizing certainly wasn’t underrepresented. While that was going on, Gov. Rick Perry filed a lawsuit (one later joined by Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, and Rick Santorum*) challenging the constitutionality of the process. Yesterday the judge hearing the case ordered the Commonwealth of Virginia not to issue absentee ballots; today’s order explains why.

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A very big development in the ballot access lawsuit filed in federal court in Virginia by Texas Governor Rick Perry and joined by Newt Gingrich, Rich Santorum, and Jon Huntsman. Judge John Gibney just filed a five-page order in which he states that

there is a strong likelihood that the Court will find the residency requirement for petition circulators to be unconstitutional. The authorities make clear that circulating petitions for candidates is a form of protected speech, and that the Commonwealth has a heavy burden to justify the restriction on speech by showing not only that the limitation achieves a valid state interest but also that the limitation is no broader in scope than necessary to achieve that purpose. As in all strict scrutiny cases, the state has a difficult task to demonstrate the propriety of its limitation on protected speech. For this reason, the Court believes that the plaintiffs have a substantial likelihood of succeeding on the merits, at least on the issue of the validity of the residency requirement.

Yesterday, Judge Gibney ordered the Virginia State Board of Elections to notify all local county electoral boards that they are barred “from ordering any ballots” or “from mailing out any absentee ballots” until after the judge holds a hearing on the case on January 13. The judge says in the order that he will make a decision on the merits of the temporary restraining order (TRO) and preliminary injunction being sought by the candidates on the 13th.

Additionally, the ACLU of Virginia filed an amicus brief today on the side of the Republican presidential candidates, arguing that Virginia’s 10,000-signature requirement for a presidential candidate to appear on the ballot “reduces the quantity of [political] speech available in Virginia, and directly infringes on the First Amendment rights of candidates, voters, petition circulators, and political parties.”

The ACLU also argues that Virginia’s residency requirement for petition circulators is not narrowly tailored to serve a compelling government interest. In fact, the ACLU says that Virginia has “fail[ed] even to articulate a compelling interest.” It asks the court to grant the plaintiffs’ request for a TRO and a preliminary injunction. Looks like the judge agrees with the ACLU.

So we should know by the end of the day on Friday whether Perry, Gingrich, Huntsman and/or Santorum will be added to the ballot or if the only choices for Virginia voters will be Mitt Romney and Ron Paul in the Republican primary on March 6. With this latest order from the judge, it is highly likely that there will be additional candidates on the ballot.

http://blog.heritage.org/2012/01/10/breaking-more-gop-candidates-on-virginias-presidential-primary-ballot/

Ken Cuccinelli, Virginia’s AG, has sworn an oath to follow the law of his state and the US. However, in this case, while the law is valid, it makes a mockery of Virginia’s Republican Primary.

Although it borders the nation’s capital, no candidate will campaign here in Virginia and as a result, Virginia’s primary will be a non-entity in the national media once the dust settles over the legal challenge mounted by the candidates who are not named Romney or Paul.

This situation is but one example of an archaic process designed to find the standard bearer of one of the two major parties – note that if these candidates were Democrats and Obama was a Republican (A facetious analogy to be sure), the result would be the same.

This situation comes a week before a caucus in Iowa that is about as backward as possible in terms of representing the true intentions of most Iowa Republicans.

Imagine meeting in the middle of a large room with all of your fellow Republicans in your town or district and then being told to stand under the sign or banner of “your” candidate – publicly in front of your friends and neighbors.

This goes counter to the principle of a secret ballot – which assures anonymity in voting – and (in my humble opinion) assures a larger voter turn-out.

What makes this caucus even more absurd is that consistently, year after year, Iowa chooses the candidate first.

While I do not begrudge Iowans their historic place in the voting order, I only ask that all states share the same process in selecting “their candidate”.

I will not even begin to explain why or how we should change the Electoral College.

As far as I am concerned, the entire election process needs a major overhaul to follow the spirit of the Declaration of Independence whether or not it is spelled out in states’ constitutions nationwide.

Sorry, Virginians and my apologies to the people of Iowa.

Interesting; and a pretty strong reversal from Saturday’s statement.

“I obviously feel very strongly that Virginia needs to change its ballot access requirements for our statewide elections,” Cuccinelli said in a statement.

“However, after working through different scenarios with Republican and Democratic leaders to attempt to make changes in time for the 2012 presidential election, my concern grows that we cannot find a way to make such changes fair to the Romney and Paul campaigns that qualified even with Virginia’s burdensome system.

“A further critical factor that I must consider is that changing the rules midstream is inconsistent with respecting and preserving the rule of law — something I am particularly sensitive to as Virginia’s attorney general.”

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Interesting; and a pretty strong reversal from Saturday’s statement.

“I obviously feel very strongly that Virginia needs to change its ballot access requirements for our statewide elections,” Cuccinelli said in a statement.

“However, after working through different scenarios with Republican and Democratic leaders to attempt to make changes in time for the 2012 presidential election, my concern grows that we cannot find a way to make such changes fair to the Romney and Paul campaigns that qualified even with Virginia’s burdensome system.

“A further critical factor that I must consider is that changing the rules midstream is inconsistent with respecting and preserving the rule of law — something I am particularly sensitive to as Virginia’s attorney general.”

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[FURTHER UPDATE] Drudge is not reporting that Perry/Gringrich are on the ballot; but Bachmann, Gingrich, Huntsman, and Santorum have joined Perry’s lawsuit.

The Attorney General of Virginia “plans to file emergency legislation to address the inability of most Republican presidential candidates to get their names on the ballot;” as everyone reading this already knows, the recent Virginia primary ratification process ended up with only Mitt Romney and Ron Paul getting on the ballot. Newt Gingrich and Rick Perry had too many of their signatures invalidated by the process; the other candidates didn’t even try. As I understand the situation, emergency legislation will require a super-majority in the state (well, Commonwealth) legislature; but the fact that Cuccinelli is already getting bipartisan backup (and the reported support of the Governor) suggests that such a thing may be actually achievable.

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[FURTHER UPDATE] Drudge is not reporting that Perry/Gringrich are on the ballot; but Bachmann, Gingrich, Huntsman, and Santorum have joined Perry’s lawsuit.

The Attorney General of Virginia “plans to file emergency legislation to address the inability of most Republican presidential candidates to get their names on the ballot;” as everyone reading this already knows, the recent Virginia primary ratification process ended up with only Mitt Romney and Ron Paul getting on the ballot. Newt Gingrich and Rick Perry had too many of their signatures invalidated by the process; the other candidates didn’t even try. As I understand the situation, emergency legislation will require a super-majority in the state (well, Commonwealth) legislature; but the fact that Cuccinelli is already getting bipartisan backup (and the reported support of the Governor) suggests that such a thing may be actually achievable.

Read More →