Besides the Presidential sweepstakes in Minnesota, there is also a Senate race and eight Congressional seats up for grabs. Throw in some redistricting drama and the general weirdness of the Minnesota voters and the state can be potentially perilous for the GOP in 2012. So much depends on the movement of district lines here and there and the entire dynamic can change. In addition, Minnesota has one of the latest redistricting deadlines in the country.
Some have looked to the north for an opportunity for the GOP to pick up 10 electoral votes. I do not see it happening. The population, at large, despite pockets of conservatism, has a progressive streak that allows this state, like Wisconsin to the east, to be one of those states where it is hard to get a read on their political proclivities. However, it would be foolish at this point to expect a Republican victory out of this state. One major reason is that while Obama’s approval ratings nationally are in the mid 40s, in Minnesota they have been consistently over the 50% mark. I really do not expect it to drop in the future, but may actually increase. I think that we can safely assume that the 10 electoral votes go to Obama in 2012.
In the Senate, incumbent Democrat Amy Klobuchar seeks her second term in the Senate. She has a clear, unchallenged path to the nomination facing a token primary challenge from perennial candidate Dick Franson. In 2006, Klobuchar won with 58% of the vote. The problem for the GOP is finding a top tier candidate to at least make this race close. Norm Coleman, who lost a protracted legal battle against Al Franken (see what I mean about Minnesota voters?) passed on a chance to challenge the incumbent as did state senator Dave Thompson, the most outspoken and recognizable state legislator. That pretty much leaves state representative Dan Severson. Severson was Tea Party before there was a Tea Party. But there is a serious problem from the start. Klobuchar has a war chest of $5.1 million and rising for an election ten months away. In his one filing, Severson had raised $3,700. To put that in perspective, that Democratic perennial candidate mentioned earlier raised $5,700. In one interview, he stated that a donor mentioned that it was the consensus Klobuchar would win and it made greater sense to financially support her.
Instead, Severson has said he will use other means to paint Klobuchar as a stone cold liberal out of step with the basic values of most Minnesotans. Another possible strategy will be to somehow link and relate Klobuchar to Al Franken. Severson has asserted that corruption in the Minnesota Attorney General’s Office is what guaranteed the win for Franken in the first place. In fact, all three potential major announced candidates for the GOP nomination may actually be way to the right for Minnesota voters. Preliminary polls indicate Klobuchar will win by about a 20 point margin. In the end, it would seem unreasonable to honestly expect the GOP to take this seat. Given her advantage in so many areas, Klobuchar will be returned to the Senate.
A lot will depend on redistricting when it comes to the House races. That will not occur until late February. Since Minnesota neither gains nor loses any seats, changes will reflect population shifts in the state. The 1st District currently stretches along the southern length of Minnesota and is represented by Democrat Tim Walz in what is nominally considered a Republican area. If Republicans are going to gain any seats in Minnesota, it will be in the name of Mike Parry who will likely oppose Walz. However, Walz has the advantage of incumbency and a sizable war chest.
John Kline should win reelection in the 2nd. Erik Paulson, another Republican, represents the 3rd. In actuality, he would be a formidable foe in the Senate race, but he declined the opportunity to run against an incumbent. Al Franken may be a better target. Sharon Sund should be his opponent. In the 4th, Betty McCollum faces little chance of losing as does Democrat Keith Ellison in the 5th, although Republican challenger Lynne Torgerson shows some life.
In the 7th, Democrat Colin Peterson will likely face Lee Byberg in a race that will likely be closer than most people are thinking. However, I believe that Peterson will prevail. In the 8th District, if Republicans think they can pick off Tim Walz, the Democrats have a chance to pick off Chip Cravaak in the 8th. He will face a very serious challenger in Tarryl Clark who last ran against Michelle Bachmann in the 6th.
Which brings us to the 6th District currently held by Bachmann. Redistricting may very well alter her district to the point that she will have more difficulty in 2012 than in the past. Truth be told, her margins of victory in the past have not been stellar. With the more liberal elements encroaching on her territory, she faces a tough challenge from here on out. Minnesota law prohibited her from running for two federal offices at the same time so she had to suspend her congressional campaigning when she declared her Presidential run. With that now officially ended, she can concentrate on things back home. She has star quality and maintains a high profile and can easily raise money. Additionally, no Democrat has declared their candidacy. However, despite a Bachmann in 2012, her days are numbered and 2014 may be the end of the road for her House career. That would most likely mean that she would consider a run against the vulnerable Al Franken.
In conclusion, Minnesota’s ten electoral votes will go to Obama while Klobuchar will return to the Senate. I cannot see a change in the Congressional delegation as far as numbers go. However, there may very well be a swap of sorts where the Democrats lose Walz and the Republicans lose Cravaak.

Running totals thus far:
Obama with 93 votes to 107 for the GOP nominee;
Net gain of 2 Governors;
Net gain of 3 Senate seats, and;
Net loss of 6 House seats.

Next: Iowa

Promoted from the diaries.  The key message here is the first and last sentences.  Remember that when/if you threaten to “stay home” from the election(s) … Ed.

So…..do they suck WORSE than Obama?

All of the candidates are politicians.  ALL of them think that government has answers….YES, even Ron Paul.  THAT’S WHY THEY ARE IN POLITICS.

Let’s see….

Romney is a front runner because he’s electable….except when he’s not.  He’s conservative….except when he’s not.  He’s a businessman….except when he’s not.  He’s been running for office since the Last election.  Desire for public office like this raises the hackles of many Americans.  He’s a liberal Republican.  Either we vote for him or Obama is elected and runs the nation into the ground like a meteor hitting the earth.

Gingrich is a front runner because he’s fighting back.  He’s not electable….except he seems to have A LOT of support in many states.  Is he a conservative?  Depends on how you define conservative and to whom you compare it to……like the 1994 Democrats.   Does he think government has the answers?  Yep.  If elected….he will use government power to enact “conservative” ideas, by HIS definition.  This isn’t a secret and was, until recently, a point of attraction to many Republicans.  Is he an insider? Yep.  Is he a former philanderer? Yep.  All of his scandals are common knowledge.   Is that a point in favor or against his nomination?  No one knows.  Either we vote for him or Obama is elected and runs the nation into the ground like a meteor hitting the earth.

Perry is a front runner…or was.  Unfortunately, he doesn’t seem to do well in the format that was chosen for this primary Charlie Foxtrot.  His ideas, when presented, are huge applause lines.  He’s consistent on message about downsizing the federal government.  He’s pro-defense, pro-border enforcement, has executive experience, and has a record of improving business climates.  According to some, he too, has grown government and his former “Democratness” is a liability, as his immigration stance.   Either we vote for him or Obama is elected and runs the nation into the ground like a meteor hitting the earth.

Paul…..what can you say about Paul that hasn’t been said, refuted, argued about, refuted again, and repeated.  His message about limited government is music to the Tea Party.  His foreign policy, when more closely examined, is horrible.  And his belief that America is the cause of all of our problems, his white washing of the fact that SOME governments across the world ARE evil…..is just the deal killer. Except he’s still better than another four years of Obama.  Either we vote for him or Obama is elected and runs the nation into the ground like a meteor hitting the earth.

Read More →

Promoted from the diaries.  The key message here is the first and last sentences.  Remember that when/if you threaten to “stay home” from the election(s) … Ed.

So…..do they suck WORSE than Obama?

All of the candidates are politicians.  ALL of them think that government has answers….YES, even Ron Paul.  THAT’S WHY THEY ARE IN POLITICS.

Let’s see….

Romney is a front runner because he’s electable….except when he’s not.  He’s conservative….except when he’s not.  He’s a businessman….except when he’s not.  He’s been running for office since the Last election.  Desire for public office like this raises the hackles of many Americans.  He’s a liberal Republican.  Either we vote for him or Obama is elected and runs the nation into the ground like a meteor hitting the earth.

Gingrich is a front runner because he’s fighting back.  He’s not electable….except he seems to have A LOT of support in many states.  Is he a conservative?  Depends on how you define conservative and to whom you compare it to……like the 1994 Democrats.   Does he think government has the answers?  Yep.  If elected….he will use government power to enact “conservative” ideas, by HIS definition.  This isn’t a secret and was, until recently, a point of attraction to many Republicans.  Is he an insider? Yep.  Is he a former philanderer? Yep.  All of his scandals are common knowledge.   Is that a point in favor or against his nomination?  No one knows.  Either we vote for him or Obama is elected and runs the nation into the ground like a meteor hitting the earth.

Perry is a front runner…or was.  Unfortunately, he doesn’t seem to do well in the format that was chosen for this primary Charlie Foxtrot.  His ideas, when presented, are huge applause lines.  He’s consistent on message about downsizing the federal government.  He’s pro-defense, pro-border enforcement, has executive experience, and has a record of improving business climates.  According to some, he too, has grown government and his former “Democratness” is a liability, as his immigration stance.   Either we vote for him or Obama is elected and runs the nation into the ground like a meteor hitting the earth.

Paul…..what can you say about Paul that hasn’t been said, refuted, argued about, refuted again, and repeated.  His message about limited government is music to the Tea Party.  His foreign policy, when more closely examined, is horrible.  And his belief that America is the cause of all of our problems, his white washing of the fact that SOME governments across the world ARE evil…..is just the deal killer. Except he’s still better than another four years of Obama.  Either we vote for him or Obama is elected and runs the nation into the ground like a meteor hitting the earth.

Read More →

http://www.mlgoodell.webs.com

One of my favorite memories of the Detroit Symphony Orchestra, back before the players transformed Orchestra Hall into a UAW Union Hall, is of Neeme Jarvi conducting “O Fortuna,” at the end of  “Carmina Burana.” Jarvi was a most entertaining conductor, who threw himself into the music with even more enthusiasm than many of the musicians. I will always remember Jarvi reaching up and out to cue the clanging gong and clashing cymbals. Casting thunderbolts, I called it.

Casting thunderbolts is fast becoming a Newt Gingrich specialty as well, as each week he seems committed to making some statement so shocking, so outrageous, so terrifying true that it threatens to cause Rachel Maddow’s head to explode. As certain as the White House obscuring proof of felonies and treason beneath huge dumps of documents each Friday afternoon, Newt is going to say something provocative.

Two weeks ago, it was his Scrooge-like “call for the repeal of child labor laws.” This was Newt’s suggestion of how to instill good working habits among the very poor. Not only did the leftist media misinterpret the gist of his comments, they also condemned him for being racist. Now, to refresh your memories, Newt said “Really poor children in really poor neighborhoods have no habits of working and have nobody around them who works.”

It is instructive that when liberals hear “really poor children in really poor neighborhoods,” they think Black People. Then they condemn the speaker for being racist. “This is not the way Black People live,” they sputter. “You’re using stereotypes.” Uh, right. Let’s move on.

In this week’s Gingrich Answer to the Document Dump, Newt announced that “I think we have an invented Palestinian people who are in fact Arabs and historically part of the Arab community,” sending liberals and Lutherans and Arabs around the world fulminating and gesticulating, and looking for Dutch film makers to murder. Sunday’s talk shows will give off a Fukushimaniacal glow, so impassioned will the condemnations be.

It doesn’t matter that his statement is true, which any serious student of the region’s history will acknowledge, and any honest advocate for peace will concede. The land of Palestine was occupied by Arabs, Jews and Christians. None of these constituted a separate race. Palestinian National Orchestra was formed by Jews in Jerusalem. Jews called themselves Palestinians until they formed their own nation, at which time they called themselves Israeli. So, basically, Newt is right again.

This is why he will not be elected President. He is a conversational saboteur. He delights in making outrageous statements which have the advantage of being true. It’s an endearing quality to have in a dinner guest. It’s a great quality to have in a teacher. But it is a lousy quality to have in a Presidential candidate. The American people don’t want an know-it-all in the White House.

Actually, it’s hard to tell what the American people want. They don’t seem to like the competence and professionalism Mitt Romney brings to the job. Herman Cain has demonstrated that while they may like pizza, but they don’t care for anchovies. Michelle Bachmann has proved that Americans definitely don’t like scary eyes. With Rick Perry we learned that while Americans don’t like people who are too smart, they don’t like them when they’re dumber than a fencepost, either. And Obama has shown that the American people respect a sincere man, no matter how often he lies.

It won’t take long before people get tired of Newt’s smirk, his gotchas, his intrinsic need to turn heads and reduce normally inarticulate TV personalities to sputtering incoherence. Newt would probably make a good HHS Secretary. He would be refreshingly wonky when it came time to start dismantling the atrocity which is Obamacare. HHS would be a good office from which he can cast his thunderbolts. In the meantime, enjoy the flying liberal spittle.

Re-posted from PJMedia.com

The Republican Jewish Coalition Presidential Candidates Forum was held on Wednesday in Washington, D.C., with around 450 attendees who paid $500 a ticket to hear all the GOP candidates (except Ron Paul who was not invited).

Rick Santorum summed it up best when he said, “It’s not easy to be a Jewish Republican.”

This is true, considering Obama’s promise of hope and change won 78% of the Jewish vote in 2008, the most he garnered from any group except African Americans.

But for Jewish Republicans 2012 represents a different kind of hope and change. Hope that in the next presidential election a large chunk of their brethren will see the error of their ways, change parties, and vote for anyone but Obama.

Hope, after all, has always sustained the Jewish people. However, historic voting patterns offer little hope because Jewish loyalty to the Democrat Party has been in the high 70% percent range for decades.

For example, when I told a liberal Jewish family member that I was attending the Republican Jewish Forum she said, “GOP Jewish Forum? What a joke!”

But all the Republican presidential candidates did not think this gathering was a joke. The proof is they all made time in their busy schedules to attend, speak alone on stage for about 20 minutes, and then answer questions directly from the audience.  As a group they were impressive and extremely articulate. They pledged support for Israel and not one used a teleprompter.

On my personal applause meter, on a scale from 1 to 10, here is how the candidates moved the Jewish Republicans, and how I determined today’s “winner.”

Rick Santorum earned a 4 when he was introduced and a 5 when he concluded. He got polite applause but made no great connection… truly a warm-up act.

Jon Huntsman was a 5 when introduced and a 5 when he concluded. He is qualified to be president but he is lacking passion.

Mitt Romney earned an 8 when he took the stage with a standing ovation. Then Romney earned another 8 when he finished his remarks but then close to a 9 and another standing ovation when he finished answering questions from the audience.  Romney was the main act, but Newt was still to come.

Chris Christie was passionate as a lunch speaker earning an 8 on the applause meter. However, Christie, being a Romney supporter, did not even mention Romney, which I found odd.

After lunch, Newt Gingrich was introduced, earning a 6 on the applause meter.  He made news by saying he would ask Former UN Ambassador John Bolton to be his Secretary of State. But the longer Gingrich spoke (lectured I should say), he seemed to lose the energy of the crowd and received a 4 on the meter.

Rick Perry earned a 5 when introduced and a 7 when he left the stage with a standing ovation.  The crowd warmed to him during a long question and answer period.  He had a great line when he said, “This city is not ready for me!”

Michele Bachmann received a standing ovation and a 6 on the applause meter. When she concluded her remarks, she earned another standing O and a 7 on the meter.  Then, like Romney, she received a third standing O and another 7 applause when she finished answering questions from the audience. Bachmann speaks from her heart when she talks about Israel and the crowd fell in love.

So after hearing all the candidates speak for about 30 minutes I declare the winner of the Republican Jewish Coalition Presidential Forum to be Mitt Romney. This is based on the applause levels and standing ovations for his stirring speech about leadership and his command performance on the stage.

The high point of Romney’s speech was when he said as president he would make Israel his first foreign trip. This is in contrast to President Obama who has not visited Israel as president.

Organizationally, just for the record, a minute before Romney had finished his speech I received an email of the speech as a press release. His is a campaign organization that is ready to roll and face the “Campaigner in Chief.”

Not wanting to rely just on my own instincts,  I asked several other attendees who they thought had been the “winner” and all agreed it was Romney because he looked and acted the most presidential.

The Republican Jewish Presidential Candidates Forum ended with the battle cry, “Remember in November! — and the Jewish community will play a historic role.”

Let’s hope great change will occur within the American Jewish community at large in 2012 to nip away at the 78% of the vote that Obama won from them in 2008.

The Jewish vote significantly shifting in a few key states like Florida could make 2012 a November to remember.

There’s a great Republican line up for the 2012 Presidential race; most of the candidates would like to receive Donald Trump and Sarah Palin’s endorsement. In fact if they both endorse the same candidate the polls could change drastically.

Who will Sarah Palin endorse – it sounds like she’s eyeing Rick Santorum, but Sarah isn’t going to waste her energy and support on anyone at this time until she observes a couple more debates.

Sarah is doing her own vetting and looking for the candidate who will enforce transparency, balance the budget, secure our borders and embrace our Constitution. During an interview on FOX news Sarah complimented Rick Santorum‘s Conservative strengths mentioning his agenda on cutting taxes, abortion and dealing with Iran.

Glenn Beck suggested that people take a good hard look at Rick, although Glenn isn’t planning on endorsing anyone at this time. Rick is just starting to gain traction and coming from behind may be an ideal fit for Rick, because he can analyze his competition and make necessary adjustments.

Donald Trump will be the moderator for the Presidential Debate on December 27, 2011 and the Donald said this debate will be different from previous debates. Mr. Trump will be doing his own vetting during this debate – foreign policy and jobs will definitely take the spot light. Donald feels the next President needs to be equipped to handle China, India, Iran, OPEC and bring the big Corporations back to the United States. Donald said he would make his decision on an endorsement sometime after this debate.

As we all know, it’s anyone’s horse race at this time and polls can change literally by the hour. Rick Perry has a gigantic war chest of money at this time and is fighting valiantly to overcome his problems during the various debates. Rick is a devout Christian man and he’s not shy in exposing Obama’s weaknesses as Commander in Chief.

Rick feels Obama’s energy and job plans stem from the advice of the environmental activists; Governor Perry is promoting his energy and job plan and giving America hope for the future, Rick says, “The next economic boom is right under our feet.”

Ron Paul’s faithful supporters never seem to waiver and many say that “Ron” is the only authentic Conservative in the race. If Ron should become our next Commander in Chief we can expect a much smaller government, States will resume their position as decision makers and Americans will once again become the active voice for a Government of the people, by the people and for the people.

Ron Paul never waivers from his convictions that our Government has become a meddlesome, irresponsible and corrupt mechanism that has stifled our potential to be truly independent. Our Rights and freedoms will be restored if Ron steps into the Oval Office.

Newt Gingrich has steadily climbed to the top and will be unmercifully cremated by the Obama Administration and the Liberal News Media. Newt will undergo intense scrutiny due to errors made previously when he was Speaker of the House, but Newt says he has learned some very hard lessons and he’s made his peace with “God.” Newt is following the yellow brick road to Donald Trump’s not so humble abode for Newt respects the Donald and would love to have “The Donald’s” endorsement.

Jon Huntsman along with Ron Paul may be making a very bad decision for both have declined Trump’s Presidential debate the end of December. It appears that Ron Paul and Jon Huntsman have declined the Trump debate due to personal grievances; Ron thinks a debate with Donald Trump as mediator is a total waste of time and beneath him. Only time will tell if these two candidates were wise in their decisions.

Jon’s quick jump into the political fray while Obama’s ambassador to China has been a little disconnected, but Jon is determined and it remains to be seen, if he can emerge a victor. Jon, like Mitt Romney is a staunch Mormon and one of the most popular Governor’s in Utah’s history.

Nothing more needs to be discussed at this time about Hermann Cain, because Hermann’s life has been completely tossed to the vultures as he’s been accused of one affair after another.

Mitt Romney has been the turtle of the pack, he’s been consistently staying in the middle of the road honing his debating skill – vetting Mitt has been a real problem, because he’s played his cards close to his chest. Whether he can weather the “flip flop” accusations remains to be seen. Just in the past couple of days, Mitt has emerged from behind closed doors, boxing gloves in hand and the real Mitt Romney just stood up!

Last but not least is Michelle Bachmann, a Conservative lady who may emerge in January as one of the front runners. Michelle reminds me of a comment about mamma grizzlies made by Sarah Palin. Michelle is a successful business person, believes in our Constitution, securing our borders and isn’t afraid of the devil himself.

Michelle has exposed the Obama Administration many times and will continue on this path as she moves forward in her Presidential Campaign. Some say, “We’re not ready for a strong patriotic woman to take over the helm as Commander in Chief. Others say Michelle is the answer to restoring our Nation, one step at a time.

Bottom line is this: any of these six candidates running for the Presidential Election in 2012 can take the Presidential title from Barack Obama.

May God Bless Our Nation
As Always,
Little Tboca

As you may be aware, Senator John McCain, reading from a Wall Street Journal editorial on the Senate floor Wednesday, invoked Tolkien, quoting the passage here:

The idea seems to be if the House GOP refuses to raise the debt ceiling, a default crisis or gradual government shutdown will ensue and the public will turn en masse against Barack Obama. The Republican House that failed to raise the debt ceiling would somehow escape all the blame. Then Democrats would have no choice but to pass a balanced budget amendment and reform entitlements, and the Tea Party hobbits could return to Middle Earth having defeated Mordor.

Well not to go all nerd on you, Senator, but they were already IN Middle Earth. They had to return to The Shire. -3 internets to you. And we’ll leave aside that he and the author of the editorial might have found a more timely reference, what with the end of Harry Potter, and therefore life as we know it, so close at hand. The fact is that this Hobbit sees an opportunity for some photoshop fun.

PHOTOSHOP CONTEST!!!

So here are the rules: produce Tolkien themed tea party photoshops and post them in the comments. Or don’t. I’m a blog post, not a cop. Keep it clean. Winners will be announced in their own minds, and the best will probably be destined for Twitter glory. Or not. This is a hypothesis, not the all seeing eye of Sauron. Keep it clean. People who don’t will be cast into the fiery pit of Mt. Doom. By Moe.

So nerd it up, Hobbitses. Let’s see what you got. I’ll start below the fold.

Read More →

As you may be aware, Senator John McCain, reading from a Wall Street Journal editorial on the Senate floor Wednesday, invoked Tolkien, quoting the passage here:

The idea seems to be if the House GOP refuses to raise the debt ceiling, a default crisis or gradual government shutdown will ensue and the public will turn en masse against Barack Obama. The Republican House that failed to raise the debt ceiling would somehow escape all the blame. Then Democrats would have no choice but to pass a balanced budget amendment and reform entitlements, and the Tea Party hobbits could return to Middle Earth having defeated Mordor.

Well not to go all nerd on you, Senator, but they were already IN Middle Earth. They had to return to The Shire. -3 internets to you. And we’ll leave aside that he and the author of the editorial might have found a more timely reference, what with the end of Harry Potter, and therefore life as we know it, so close at hand. The fact is that this Hobbit sees an opportunity for some photoshop fun.

PHOTOSHOP CONTEST!!!

So here are the rules: produce Tolkien themed tea party photoshops and post them in the comments. Or don’t. I’m a blog post, not a cop. Keep it clean. Winners will be announced in their own minds, and the best will probably be destined for Twitter glory. Or not. This is a hypothesis, not the all seeing eye of Sauron. Keep it clean. People who don’t will be cast into the fiery pit of Mt. Doom. By Moe.

So nerd it up, Hobbitses. Let’s see what you got. I’ll start below the fold.

Read More →

Michael O’Brien over at The Hill is reporting that Congressman Barney Frank (D, Mass.) is backtracking on his previous support of Rep. Michelle Bachmann’s (R, Minn.) bill that would prevent federal money from going to the corruption plagued Association of Community Activists for Reform Now (ACORN).

Bachmann had initially gotten Frank’s support for a bill that would toughen regulations on community organizers preventing groups like ACORN from getting federal money if any of its employees came under indictment for voter fraud.

Read More →

Michael O’Brien over at The Hill is reporting that Congressman Barney Frank (D, Mass.) is backtracking on his previous support of Rep. Michelle Bachmann’s (R, Minn.) bill that would prevent federal money from going to the corruption plagued Association of Community Activists for Reform Now (ACORN).

Bachmann had initially gotten Frank’s support for a bill that would toughen regulations on community organizers preventing groups like ACORN from getting federal money if any of its employees came under indictment for voter fraud.

Read More →