Georgia gains a seat in the House due to population growth. In presidential politics, I personally have my worries in Georgia. With state approval ratings above the national average, Obama’s chances of picking up an unanticipated 16 electoral votes is a real possibility. While it is true that Georgia has been a fairly reliable GOP state since 2000, the margins have not been exactly stellar averaging 51.7% of the total vote. Should Obama pick off Georgia in 2012, it changes the entire electoral picture and math. An August 2011 Gallup poll put his approval rating in Georgia at 48%. At first, this would seem strange and certainly bucks the trend after a dismal summer for Obama. More recent polling from sources in Georgia put his approval rating in the low to mid 40s. That would give me some hope here. The GOP cannot take Georgia for granted and needs to defend these votes. I will go with recent electoral history and call their 16 votes for the Republicans, although it will be very, very close.

In the House races, things become interesting because of the addition of a district this year. The new district is numbered the 9th and is located in the northeastern part of the state. The current House delegation favors the GOP 8-5.

Three of the incumbent Democrats are safe in their newly drawn districts. John Lewis in the 5th, which comprises urban Atlanta, will face only a primary challenge from Fulton County Judge Michael Johnson. Hank Johnson’s 4th District, which includes the eastern part of Atlanta, became slightly less Democratic, but is safe. David Scott in the 13th falls into the same category. The 2nd District, held by Sanford Bishop, won with 51% of the vote in 2010 against Rick Allen and 2012 is shaping up as a rematch. This is a minority district in the southwestern corner of Georgia. However, it is expected Bishop will fare better in 2012 as the district picked up Macon. Still, the race bears some watching and could be indicative of the political winds in Georgia this cycle.

For Republicans, of their eight current seats, all appear safe. No major changes were made to the 3rd or 7th Districts. In the 1st District, Jack Kingston has at one time or another represented every part of his new territory. He added a Democratic stronghold in Savannah- a direct blow to the 12th- but he won with 72% of the vote in 2010 leaving him a comfortable margin of error. Tom Price in the 6th will have a considerably different looking district this time out. He added the northern parts of Cobb, Fulton and DeKalb counties while losing Cherokee County. In 2010, he ran unopposed and although he may draw a challenger this year, he is safe. The 8th District stretches from the Florida border to Monroe County. Considered somewhat vulnerable, Austin Scott probably gained the most in redistricting. He lost Democratic territory, including Macon, to the 2nd District and gained some solid GOP territory in the exchange. Although he may face former representative Jim Marshall in a general election, the area has been definitely drawn to Scott’s benefit and he should improve on his 53% of the vote from 2010.

Paul Gingrey sees a possible electoral and financial gain by having the wealthy northern part of Atlanta drawn into his district- the 11th. Meanwhile, Paul Broun in the 10th gains new territory to conquer. Whenever this happens, there is always the possibility of a primary challenge popping up, but there are none thus far. Regardless, Broun is known for his grassroots organization that already has tentacles in these new areas. And in the 14th, Tom Graves, which is the northwest corner of the state, faces only a primary challenge. That wil come from both Steve Tarvin and Jerry Shearin both who admit it will be difficult to beat Graves or even run to the right of his conservative voting record. Graves received a boost when Bob Barr- a former representative and 2008 Libertarian Party presidential candidate- announced he would remain at his law firm rather than mount a primary challenge. In conclusion, we can safely say that all current Republican incumbents will win reelection, leaving only the new 9th District and the 12th, currently held by Democrat John Barrow.

The new district- labeled the 9th- is located in the growing and somewhat conservative northeast corner of the state. It is generally believed that a Republican will win this seat. The only question is who? In effect, this race will be a microcosm of the national debate in the GOP- the establishment versus the Tea Party/outsiders.

On the Tea party side is talk show host Martha Zoller. She has thus far gained the support and endorsement of Herman Cain and Redstate’s own Erick Erickson. On the establishment side is state representative Doug Collins. Although Governor Nathan Deal has not officially endorsed anyone in this race, his finger prints are all over the race. Several operatives from Deal’s campaign are now working for Collins. Collins was a major floor leader in the legislature for the Deal agenda. Nathan Deal pushed for the creation of the district in this part of the state, tacit approval of a Collins candidacy. And Collins was one of the most vocal boosters of the seat in this area.

If ever a Democratic incumbent had a target on his back it would be John Barrow in the 12th District. In redistricting, he lost his home base of Savannah while gaining the heavy Republican suburbs of Augusta. Barrow is a leader of the Blue Dog Democrats in the House and has shown some independence from the Democratic leadership of Pelosi. However, a sober analysis of his voting record indicates that he voted with the Democratic Party 91% of the time. What sets him apart, however, is his votes on some marquee issues- the vote against TARP, Obamacare and cap-and-trade. Under ordinary circumstances, this would be enough to keep him in office. But his likely GOP opponent- state representative Lee Anderson- will remind voters of two key votes by Barrow- his support of the Obama stimulus and his vote against repeal of Obamacare.

One cannot count out Barrow. He has been on the short end of the stick in redistricting in the past and survived. He is considered a tireless campaigner and is politically savvy. He is already trying to spin those votes Anderson will highlight to his advantage. For example, with the stimulus he is saying that the amount spent was not a problem given the circumstances at the time, but there was a definite problem with HOW those funds were spent. With Obamacare, he says that the law is here to stay, that the repeal attempts were window dressing, and that the law should and can be improved without outright repeal.

The worst case scenario in Georgia is for Barrow to win and Obama to claim their 16 electoral votes. A better scenario would be for Barrow to win while Obama loses the 16 electoral votes. The best case scenario would be for the GOP to take the 16 electoral votes, the new 9th District, and for Barrow to lose. I am taking the middle ground and saying the GOP picks up a seat in the House (the 9th) and Obama loses the state.

Running totals thus far:
Obama 261 votes to 247 for the GOP;
Net gain 3 Governors;
Net gain 4 Senate seats;
Net loss 3 House seats.

Next: Florida, part 1

[You be the judge - NS]

I was asked by a friend on Facebook to post my views on two topics. The current republican presidential primary, and the problems with the legislative branch of the federal government. While these items should be treated as two separate topics I will, for the sake of the request try to cover both here.

The Republican Presidential Primary

I am currently, on the eve of the South Carolina debate, firmly in the Not-Romney camp. I think Gingrich had a fantastic showing in the last debate and that Santorum did well also. I also have NO intention of voting for Obama. That said, I am more concerned about the media narrative that it’s already over and decided because Romney has more money than anyone else.

Be warned that we allowed the media to select our candidate last go around in 2008 and we ended up being defeated by a first term congressman from Illinois with no record and only charisma on his side (oh and his willing accomplices in that same media who REFUSED to vet him properly sweeping all his peccadilloes under the rug).

The debate going on right now is just fine. I did like Gingrich’s high road approach early on, to which he has returned now. But I was troubled by his drift to the language of the liberal left when he attacked Romney on Bain Capital as well as the egregious errors used by his Superpac. He himself, as well as the other candidates, when referring to Romney’s own Superpac has said candidates do exert influence and control over what they present, so Gingrich et al do have culpability in the content of their ads. That said, while Newt has some issues that need to be addressed (like sitting on the couch with her highness Pelosi and supporting the idea of global warming to name a few). I do like how many good ideas he has, what he has accomplished in the past (to some degree) i.e. Contract With America, and how he isn’t afraid to take it to Obama.

Santorum, well I like much of what he says but I don’t know enough about his record and past. I do know he was defeated for reelection, but I don’t know the circumstances behind it or why. I REALLY like what he said at the last debate when he was asked about voting for No Child Left Behind. He admitted in an widely viewed public forum that it was wrong of him to vote for that legislation and he wished he hadn’t. This kind of candor and chutzpah is what is needed by our next president. This kind of willingness to say ‘I was wrong’ has been needed in Washington for a LONG time. On this one thing alone I am currently inclined to pull the lever for Santorum, but the primary isn’t to Georgia yet. We shall see.

What is Wrong with the Legislative Branch of the American Federal Government

They currently have no regard for our founding documents, the founders intent of those documents, or the freedoms those documents guarantee to the people of this country. Establishment politicians need to be reigned in. Power to these individuals needs to be curtailed, not granted. As examples I give you the blatant disregard for procedure in the recent recess appointments made by our current president. I’d also through out the clear disregard for the private property i.e. the money we earn embodied in the confiscatory nature of the individual mandate in the health care legislation.

How about the NDAA that strips American citizens of their rights on accusations alone without due process? How about the double speak of the current president concerning US Government debt? It was convenient to accuse President Bush of being ‘…unpatriotic…’ for running up his debt with China, but when President Obama wants to spend TWICE what Bush spent in less than half the time, it’s okay (that’s not unconstitutional, just offensive on the face of it). How about the abridgment of free speech embodied in the SOPA and PIPA acts? How about saying jobs are his number one priority on the campaign trail (at taxpayer expense by the way) and then killing the Keystone Pipeline, which his own advisory board is pleading with him to enact? How about sending secret letters to our enemies to talk while they threaten to sink our carriers and kill our sailors?

What’s wrong with the legislative branch of the federal government? If you’re sitting at home and don’t think anything is wrong with the legislative branch of the federal government, just wait. They’ll be at your door soon enough to explain it to you in words you will understand, and when you begin screaming about how your freedoms are being infringed upon, the rest of us will only have the sad comfort of knowing at least we were right in decrying it when it started back in the campaign of 2008.
That’s my opinion. You are still free to express yours….for now.

Cross posted on my site firstchevalier.com

I am firmly in the camp of ‘Anybody but Mitt’. However, my preferred candidate is not in the race so I am left squarely undecided. I am researching and listening to everyone in the field, yes everyone. I haven’t made up my mind yet, and won’t until the primary gets to Georgia. My concern is that we are all so apoplectic about NOT choosing Mitt Romney we cannot unit strongly enough behind any one candidate to beat him. This will mirror 2008 giving us a squishy like McCain, which will hand the election to four more of Obama I fear.

I have been saying ‘I will NOT vote for Mitt Romney no matter what’. I am now squarely faced with the very real possibility of having to vote for a third party candidate, and I DO NOT WANT TO DO THAT. I realize a third party vote is all but assuring us of four more with Hoppey McChange the socialist clown. I do not want that, but I will NOT compromise my principals anymore and ‘hold my nose’ because either the media intelligentsia or the Establishment Republicans say ‘He’s the only one who can beat Obama’.

No he is not.

So, here is an open call to Mitt Romney (not his operatives or supporters) to explain why what he’s done in the past that wasn’t conservative won’t happen again?

Before you Mitt supporters post something like, ‘well that’s what he had to do to get elected in Massachusetts’ understand that is an answer that will drive me away. That is an answer from someone who has no convictions, principals, or moral standing who is going to stick a finger in the wind and run in the direction of the mob. My fear about Mitt Romney is he will tout all the right conservative catch-phrases during the primary and once he has secured the nomination he will break the sound barrier as he runs to the middle, which is where he will govern from.

To escape and repair the damage done these past three years (four by the time the next president is elected) we will need someone who believes, TRULY BELIEVES government isn’t the answer. We don’t need someone who thinks like Establishment Republicans that if only ‘We’ could do it ‘Our Way’ everything would be right. No, not at all.

We do not need more laws and regulations. To create jobs businesses need less. We do not need more handouts and entitlements. People need to be required to stand on their own or they won’t learn how to walk. We don’t need more Federal spending to get the economy going again. We need less debt looming over our heads to give us hope again. Ultimately it is that hope things will get better that will move people to action, taking risks again. We need the risk takers. We need them to look to the rewards worth risking for or they won’t. If you remove the prospect of failure, which is the downside of risk, you also remove the possibility of reward which is why the risk was taken in the first place.

So, my question is simple: Mr. Romney et al how do you propose to return the prospect of success and the hope of things worth being risked for to the American people?

Cross posted at my website, firstchevalier.com

The Federal Bureau of Investigation reports that crime in America is down, but too many in state and federal governments wouldn’t know a crime if billy club-wielding New Black Panthers intimidated white voters outside of a polling booth on election days. But just let an election registrar ask a black person for a photo ID before they vote for sheriff and the “return of Jim Crow” is at hand, according to a former President of the United States and faux civil rights “leaders.”

Moreover, the current President of the United States has even deemed the police as criminals when they questioned a man trying to jimmy his way into a Harvard professor’s house. Only a “Beer Summit” at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue got Barack Obama’s mind right about such crime-identification stupidity.

Into this milieu comes the just released FBI’s Preliminary Semiannual Uniform Crime Report which finds Metro Atlanta crime rates generally down in the first six months of 2011 as compared to the first half of 2010.

Atlantans are reminded of similar reports of crime down in 2009 from 2008, with much of the drop in crime thought to be due in large part to self-deporting illegal immigrants in the wake of the Great Recession and a new Georgia law making it harder for illegals to obtain employment.

Surely it is good that crime is down, relatively speaking, and it is most assuredly heartwarming to have drops occur as poverty has increased, especially given decades of assurances that crime is a result economic deprivation. It seems the “experts” have missed some “data” on morality unencumbered by Marxist economic theory?

But who has time to celebrate less crime two years ago or this year, when:

• Atlanta Public School teachers conspire to essentially steal federal taxpayer No Child Left Behind money as they leave students behind in the wake of a test score teaching scandal?;
• Georgia Tech students are the victims of a violent crime wave in the heart of the City too Busy to Hate and when the City of College Park is number one in metro crime?; and
• Atlanta is home to DeKalb County prosecutors that wouldn’t even seek the death penalty against a Sheriff that murdered his successor after losing his bid for re-election and Fulton County juries that wouldn’t exact the ultimate punishment against a mass-murdering perpetrator in their own county courthouse?

The problem is that crime remains high and too many people simply won’t do what is necessary to take criminals off the streets and deter crime generally.

For instance, will Georgians now favor a proposed concealed carry law that would allow students to arm and protect themselves as do college students in Utah? Heard of any Beehive State crime waves at BYU? I didn’t think so.

Gun-free zones invite crime. Georgia Tech is a gun-free zone. So was Virginia Tech. It still is.

Praise God for the drop in crime but when the race lobby has invaded Attorney General Eric Holder’s Justice Department who view the Civil Rights and Voting Rights Acts as only applying to non-whites and who have so much disdain for the right to self defense that they conspire with foreign criminals to wage a “Fast and Furious” fraud campaign against the Second Amendment, we know that there is no time to celebrate statistics.

Mike DeVine

Atlanta Law & Politics columnist –  Examiner.com

Editor - Hillbilly Politics

Co-Founder and Editor - Political Daily

“One man with courage makes a majority.” – Andrew Jackson

More DeVine Gamecock rooster crowings at Modern Conservative, Unified Patriots,  and Conservative Outlooks. All Charlotte Observer and Atlanta Journal-Constitution op-eds archived at Townhall.com.

A sure sign of just how close to anarchy we’ve come is this new notion that ‘democracy’ or majority rule should be a sure way to know the will of the people.  Whoever shouts loudest, longest, hardest wins the day.

The Founding Fathers knew how dangerous mob mentality can be; they’d seen in.  And so when they set out to devise government, they came up with ways to keep tyrant-kings from crushing folks with whim taxes or crushing mandates.  Freedom was paramount in the infrastructure to protect our new nation.  And so it was decided that a Republic would suit the bill.  Voices would gather to choose an official would speak on their behalf.  The ‘local level’ would work amongst themselves to figure out who would speak, and what they’d say.  This would preserve the diverse interests of our nation, while keeping the cacophonous voices organized.

It seems natural and sensible that groups would gather geographically, decide rules of behavior and govern themselves according to their beliefs.

So it was with great interest that I noticed a new lawsuit this morning.  A suit that challenges the formation of newer, smaller cities in the metropolitan Atlanta area.

Finding themselves on the fringe of the bustling metropolis and really suburb-cities with shopping zones and city services, etc. the citizens believed they could be better served by more-local voices.  After years of planning, districting, jockeying with county and city officials, working with the state…these small cities became efficient and strong; safe and clean.

What could possibly be wrong?

Blacks aren’t in control.  And we just can’t have that with a black President and a black mayor…we can’t permit there to be any areas where white people clump up and have the majority. Divide like the Red Sea this clump of white folks!

http://www.ajc.com/news/lawsuit-seeks-dissolution-of-888729.html

Maybe Atlanta wants the taxes back.  Maybe it’s because the state has a record 50/50 white to black ratio.  Whatever the case, Liberals want it both ways. They want to be the majority and the minority.  They want to be the loudest voice even if they are the fewest in the room.

Can you imagine the outcry if a white Reverend launched a lawsuit to dissolve cities that are predominantly black (and there are those) in the same area? The outcry would be Racism. And so this play is Racism.

This mood, this tactic is making the rounds.

This echoes what’s happened in Wisconsin.  Use the law as a weapon to blast into power.

And if the majority votes go against them, they cry foul…they want a court to stop everything until they can wrest control back again.

This is what’s happening in the Federal level as well.  It is not simply good enough for the Conservatives to keep the Liberals from progressing, we must beat them back; repeal their measures, bend the rules the way they’ve shown us they will…at least as far as they have.

Rep. Steve King reminds us that the Vietnam War was ended by a Liberal Congress defunding the war during a Continuing Resolution.  A Conservative Congress can surely defund ObamaCare using the same tool and the same language.

——

Follow-up…Salon.com did an article on the most segregated cities in America.

http://www.salon.com/news/politics/war_room/2011/03/29/most_segregated_cities/slideshow.html

But segregation does not equal racism.  The article could just as easily have been named “Black Strongholds” or “African American Supermajorities”

This posting is a duplicate.  The original posting is at

http://breadandcircusesforamerica.blogspot.com/2011/03/government-busting-liberal-style.html

On the 10th anniversary of Bush v. Gore, we re-visit our Man of the Decade

There seems to be a lot of happy talk surrounding Barack Obama’s recent trip to Capitol Hill, and his attempt to sell his stimulus bill to Republicans by adding a few ‘tax cuts.’  But bipartisan bonhomie notwithstanding, there’s no more reason to embrace Barack Obama’s stimulus plan today than there was a week ago.

It is still a tremendous waste of taxpayer dollars, will do nothing to help the economy, and will blow an even bigger hole in a deficit that has risen from $162 billion to $1.2 trillion annually since Democrats took control of Congress. What Obama is selling and what he’s offering are two different things.  While the economy needs a genuine stimulus, Obama is offering to ‘spread the wealth.’  And in so doing, he’s brazenly disregarding his read-my-lips campaign pledge to offer a net spending cut at a time when everyone else is tightening their belts.

Under the proposal, as presently described, successful businesses would get no tax cuts.  Unsuccessful businesses would get taxpayer subsidies.  The government would be all in with respect to picking winners and losers in what used to be the free market.  Likewise, Obama’s “tax cuts” are actually an end run around welfare reform — giving the most money to people who pay little or no taxes, then taking that money away if they get a pay raise or a better job. Nothing proposed by Obama — not the infrastructure spending, not the aid to the states, and not the redistributive tax cuts — would help create jobs or wealth.  In fact, taxing the people of each state to give money back to their own state government isn’t just robbing Peter to pay Paul, it’s robbing Peter to pay Peter.  If states need to raise more revenue, let their governors make that case directly to their taxpayers.

The best plan we are aware of to create jobs and wealth starts with making the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts permanent.  These reductions in capital gains taxes and dividend taxes, as well as the elimination of the death tax, are far more likely to get the economy moving again than anything proposed by Barack Obama or his Congressional allies. Absent that, there is no reason for Congressional Republicans to lend support in the crafting of an ineffective and wasteful pork barrel bill. 

If the Democrats will not make the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts permanent, the GOP should not even hint at supporting the Democrats’ plan. Two Republican Senators, Mitch McConnell of Kentucky and Saxby Chambliss of Georgia, are already suggesting they can work with Barack Obama on his “tax cuts” as presented.  Just callling something a tax cut does not make it so, just as calling something a stimulus does not make it so. 

Mitch McConnell, Saxby Chambliss, and the rest of the Republican caucus could probably use some encouragement to avoid the siren song of tax cuts and stimulus before they lend their support to a bill that is neither.

There seems to be a lot of happy talk surrounding Barack Obama’s recent trip to Capitol Hill, and his attempt to sell his stimulus bill to Republicans by adding a few ‘tax cuts.’  But bipartisan bonhomie notwithstanding, there’s no more reason to embrace Barack Obama’s stimulus plan today than there was a week ago.

It is still a tremendous waste of taxpayer dollars, will do nothing to help the economy, and will blow an even bigger hole in a deficit that has risen from $162 billion to $1.2 trillion annually since Democrats took control of Congress. What Obama is selling and what he’s offering are two different things.  While the economy needs a genuine stimulus, Obama is offering to ‘spread the wealth.’  And in so doing, he’s brazenly disregarding his read-my-lips campaign pledge to offer a net spending cut at a time when everyone else is tightening their belts.

Under the proposal, as presently described, successful businesses would get no tax cuts.  Unsuccessful businesses would get taxpayer subsidies.  The government would be all in with respect to picking winners and losers in what used to be the free market.  Likewise, Obama’s “tax cuts” are actually an end run around welfare reform — giving the most money to people who pay little or no taxes, then taking that money away if they get a pay raise or a better job. Nothing proposed by Obama — not the infrastructure spending, not the aid to the states, and not the redistributive tax cuts — would help create jobs or wealth.  In fact, taxing the people of each state to give money back to their own state government isn’t just robbing Peter to pay Paul, it’s robbing Peter to pay Peter.  If states need to raise more revenue, let their governors make that case directly to their taxpayers.

The best plan we are aware of to create jobs and wealth starts with making the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts permanent.  These reductions in capital gains taxes and dividend taxes, as well as the elimination of the death tax, are far more likely to get the economy moving again than anything proposed by Barack Obama or his Congressional allies. Absent that, there is no reason for Congressional Republicans to lend support in the crafting of an ineffective and wasteful pork barrel bill. 

If the Democrats will not make the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts permanent, the GOP should not even hint at supporting the Democrats’ plan. Two Republican Senators, Mitch McConnell of Kentucky and Saxby Chambliss of Georgia, are already suggesting they can work with Barack Obama on his “tax cuts” as presented.  Just callling something a tax cut does not make it so, just as calling something a stimulus does not make it so. 

Mitch McConnell, Saxby Chambliss, and the rest of the Republican caucus could probably use some encouragement to avoid the siren song of tax cuts and stimulus before they lend their support to a bill that is neither.

https://www.saxby.org/Contribute.aspx

Greetings to my friends, family and extended family. Last week on November 4 we as conservatives and Republicans took a huge drubbing in the general and Presidential elections. Democrats now have a huge chance to reshape not only the political landscape but to affect the very way we live our lives. I am not trying to spread fear or to make people paranoid but we need to realize the gravity of the situation.

But the news is not all bad. Saxby Chambliss the Republican senator from Georgia won his senate race thereby ensuring that the Democrats do not have a filibuster proof majority in that house. Unfortunately Chambliss won less that %50 of the vote which means he faces a runoff election on December 2nd against his democratic challenger Jim Martin.

The Obama camp, seeing an opportunity to get closer to the 60 votes they need to override vetoes in the senate, are pouring money and people in to Georgia to help defeat Saxby. And he needs our help, he has to campaign again since the Democrats are going to be working very hard to change people’s minds.

So here is the proposition: we are going to drop a Money Bomb on Georgia! We are not going to give large amounts of money, we are regular people, but there are a lot of us. If each of us donates just $5 but also gets all of our friends on facebook and our email buddies to donate $5 we can truly make a difference. Our power comes not from our wallets but from our connections to friends through a common goal.

So here’s the deal, Money Bomb this Saturday. Mark it on your calendar: on Saturday November 15 donate $5 to the Saxby Chambliss campaign. Your job is twofold, first is obviously to donate $5(more if you can) on Saturday morning using this link: https://www.saxby.org/Contribute.aspx . Second and probably MORE important is to send that link to all of your friends, post it on your facebook, writ about it in your blog and write emails to all of your friends. You have two days to get the word out the key is not how much you donate but how many donators you can recruit.

We can do this, we can make a difference, our way of life literally depends on it. The liberals in the Democratic party have signaled that they are going to do whatever it takes to enact their agenda. Which includes but is not limited too:
-Return of the “fairness doctrine” to silence Rush Limbaugh, Sean Hannity etc
-The repealing of all abortion laws including parental consent and partial birth laws
-Return of the death tax
-Repealing of all the Bush tax cuts, including the return of the death tax

And that’s just a few. Democrats have also signaled that they will force all Democrats to toe the leftist line, including the Southern Democrats who won by running on conservative platforms. So there will be no dealing, filibusters are literally our only defense against liberal attempts to remake this great Country.

All it takes is $5 and the courage to share your enthusiasm for what you believe with the people around you. It’s not too late to make a difference, pass the word on!