Newt Gingrich had about six weeks at the top or tied, but that run is over. Gallup has shown a slow decline for the Speaker, and now Mitt Romney benefits. He takes his first national lead since early November.
Just in time for the actual delegate selection process to begin.
Newt Gingrich had about six weeks at the top or tied, but that run is over. Gallup has shown a slow decline for the Speaker, and now Mitt Romney benefits. He takes his first national lead since early November.
Just in time for the actual delegate selection process to begin.
Newt Gingrich has now led eleven national straight polls, counting just the latest Gallup tracking, and now covering a span of four weeks. He’s been ahead a month. That’s already four times longer than Herman Cain ever led, and getting close to the span of Rick Perry’s lead, which lasted about five weeks.
But is there any sign of weakness?
Newt Gingrich has now led eleven national straight polls, counting just the latest Gallup tracking, and now covering a span of four weeks. He’s been ahead a month. That’s already four times longer than Herman Cain ever led, and getting close to the span of Rick Perry’s lead, which lasted about five weeks.
But is there any sign of weakness?
Candidates for office aren’t always well known at first. This difference in name recognition can distort early polling, which is why in this Republican Presidential primary race I keep watching approval ratings for clues.
So my personal find today of Gallup’s Positive Intensity Score tracker I think is worth a look, especially as we consider whether Newt Gingrich’s lead is here to stay.
Candidates for office aren’t always well known at first. This difference in name recognition can distort early polling, which is why in this Republican Presidential primary race I keep watching approval ratings for clues.
So my personal find today of Gallup’s Positive Intensity Score tracker I think is worth a look, especially as we consider whether Newt Gingrich’s lead is here to stay.
We went 10 days without a poll in the field, and then after that, we went another 5 days of no news. That’s nerve wracking when the last poll was so radically different from the past.
But fortunately the new Gallup is in, and it tracks very well with the Rasmussen poll. In fact if we pretend there’s no randomness, the poll lends itself perfectly to a new narrative.
We went 10 days without a poll in the field, and then after that, we went another 5 days of no news. That’s nerve wracking when the last poll was so radically different from the past.
But fortunately the new Gallup is in, and it tracks very well with the Rasmussen poll. In fact if we pretend there’s no randomness, the poll lends itself perfectly to a new narrative.
To read more details from our extensive poll of likely 2012 voters in Overland Park, KS, go to StateandLocalEducation.org. Below is a portion.
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Part 3 of results
Telephone survey among likely 2012 voters in Overland Park, KS. Conducted Tuesday, August 9, and Wednesday, August 10, by the State and Local Educational Foundation of Kansas. Margin of error +/- 5.4%. Party breakdown: 51% Republican, 29% Unaffiliated, 20% and Democratic. 55% Female, and 45% Male. 50% over the age of 50, and 50% under the age of 50.
For detailed accompanying information for comparison and background purposes, click here. To view part 1 of our results, click here. To view part 2 of our results, click here. More information about survey methodology can be found at the bottom of this page.
Summary:
- Overland Park:
Our results indicate that 48% of Overland Park’s voters are conservative (among likely November Overland Park voters). This includes 16% who are “very conservative.” Thirty-six percent (36%) are moderate, and 16% are either “somewhat liberal” or “very liberal.”
Given that Overland Park’s voters supported John McCain over Barack Obama by a 53-46% margin, when the nation voted for Obama by a 53-46% margin, our results are comparable to Gallup’s national numbers. According to Gallup, 41% of United States adults are conservative.
Other comparisons:
- Our results show 66% of Republicans to be either “very” or “somewhat conservative.” Gallup’s figure was 71%.
- Gallup found 24% of Republicans to be moderate. Our number was 29%.
- Among Independents, Gallup found 35% to be conservative, and 44% to be moderate. We found 34% of Unaffiliated voters to be conservative, and 45% to be moderate.
Age and poltical views:
Among likely 2012 voters in Overland Park, 48% are over the age of 50, and 52% are under the age of 50. We find that over-50 likely Overland Park voters are only slightly more conservative than under-50 Overland Park voters. However, it is within the margin of error in our sub-sample (there was a sample size of 170 each of over-50 and under-50 voters, with a margin of error of 7.7% for each sub-sample).
Among over-50 voters in Overland Park, 49% are conservative; among than under-50 voters, 46% are conservative. There are slightly fewer moderate voters among over-50 (35%) than with under-50 voters (37%). Among over-50 voters, 15% self-identified as liberal; 17% of under-50 likely Overland Park voters are liberal.
As the clock ticks closer to Friday’s deadline for an extension of the continuing resolution currently funding government operations, the voices on the left and in the media grow ever louder and shrill at the prospect of a government “shutdown.” Note the scare quotes in use there, because in reality what will happen if Congress cannot agree on spending levels for the current fiscal year will be anything but what the term “shutdown” implies.
Republicans are on the right side of the argument in principle and are in line with the political mood in the country. As evidenced by their overwhelming victory in November, Americans want Congress to cut federal spending. Republicans campaigned on it, and the voters expect them to keep their promises.
So why, then, do polls like this one from Gallup show that 6 in 10 Americans do not favor a government “shutdown” in lieu of an agreement to cut spending? The answer is in the framing. Republicans can’t win a debate with liberals by accepting their use of terms. What is needed is a way to frame the debate on spending in a way that more accurately reflects what will really happen on Friday at midnight if the government “shuts down.”
Moe Lane: MoeLane: #rsrh RS at CPAC: Question and answer with Allen West. http://t.co/i0aIVrYS
Neil Stevens: It's not often I say KBH, McCain, and Murkowski are right. On opposing the cyberseucurity bill, they absolutely are. #rsrh
Moe Lane: MoeLane: #rsrh So, about this Santorum abortion thing. http://t.co/rokwHbYx
Steve Maley: Alternative Energy: No Free Lunch. #rsrh http://t.co/LF4ItCnN
Daniel Horowitz: The President’s budget will increase debt from $15.35 trillion to $25.90 trillion in FY 2022 #rsrh
Moe Lane: MoeLane: #rsrh Joking aside, armed robbery is terrifying. http://t.co/UL9i9JfP
Moe Lane: MoeLane: #rsrh Those miserable MMfA... so-and-sos. http://t.co/ut60KEFS
Jake Walker: Again, I'd rather be governed by 535 randomly selected #CPAC attendees than the entire Congress & Senate. #tcot #CPAC2012 #rsrh
Moe Lane: MoeLane: #rsrh So, AttackWatch is back! (NSFW) http://t.co/0za5hxTr
Steve Maley: An energy boom looms, despite Obama. #rsrh http://t.co/u7h9w1fC
