We are now two days away from the Florida presidential primary.

If you are to believe the narrative in the media and the results of most polls, Mitt Romney has pulled out to a substantial lead in the race, up by an average of 8-10 pts.

It’s worth noting that the polling has been schizophrenic…

Romney held a commanding double digit lead here prior to the South Carolina primary, which Newt Gingrich erased entirely as he rode the momentum of his dominant win in that primary to a strong lead of his own. We then saw the ‘machine’ go to work on Newt, giving us the current results. And this has all occurred in the past 10 days.

What the polling suggests is that this is a very volatile race that can turn quickly and with two days to go, anything is possible. But for the moment, let’s assume that Romney prevails in Florida. What does that mean?

It will mean that, in spite of the great awakening of the American people brought on by Rick Santelli’s famous Chicago rant, money still controls politics.

It will mean that the politics of personal destruction and negative campaigning prevails as an effective path to winning elections.

It will mean that after three years of trying to restore honor and integrity in the political arena, these virtues remain lost in the wilderness.

It will mean that all the sacrifices over the past three years by so many to reestablish government of the people, by the people and for the people has been for naught. That such a concept is still but a distant memory.

It will mean that the ‘politics of old’ reigns supreme.

My greatest fear, that the American people will not comprehend all that is at stake in this election, seems to be playing out before my very eyes.

When Ronald Reagan ran in the 1980 presidential race, he took his case directly to the American people, not depending on the media and the political class, both of whom were aligned against his candidacy, to get his message out.

When you take an honest look at Mitt Romney, he has taken the exact opposite path.

As we Floridians have witnessed over the past week, Newt Gingrich has maintained a punishing schedule to get before the folks, with thousands turning out to hear his visions of America. Meanwhile, there is but a ripple on the ground from Camp Romney.

Yes, it seems Romney has avoided the great unwashed for the most part, endeavoring instead to ensure the support of the political class and the ‘machine’ it controls through the Republican Party. Even if it requires peddling the potential influence he acquires should he prevail, right Ms. Bondi?

Beyond the courting of Florida’s political elite, Romney has also put his sizable financial advantage to work inundating the airwaves with negative ads targeting Newt Gingrich, Ronald Reagan’s 11th Commandment be damned.

And speaking of, exactly when did we become a people who ridicule big dreams and grandiose ideas? Was America not built on dreams? Is that not the very foundation that made this the greatest country in the history of the world? And we embrace the purveyor of this ridicule?

So what does a Mitt Romney win mean Florida?

It will mean the moderate wing of the Republican Party, the very faction that gave us John McCain in ’08, is firmly in control of the conservative movement in America.

It will mean the tea party message will become just another populist movement that came and went. And most importantly, it will mean that government of the elite, by the elite and for the elite is still how things get done in America.

Two days… so much can happen in two days.

Cross Posted at Florida Political Press

It is only fitting that the mudslinging now coming out of the Mitt Romney camp is occurring here in Florida. When it comes to dirty politics, the Sunshine State stands in a class all it’s own.

After Newt Gingrich’s overwhelming victory in the S.C. primary and subsequent surge in the polls, a real sense of desperation set in for Romney.

Desperation that manifests itself in the aggressive demeanor he’s taken on and in the negative campaign ads that have inundated the airwaves in Florida.

Such as the ad that falsely claims that Gingrich “resigned in disgrace” which Romney is still running and even had aired during last night’s CNN debate. A claim that none other than Charles Krauthammer himself has stated is not accurate.

Although, were you to ask Mitt Romney about this ad, odds are you will get feigned ignorance. A bothersome trend from the former Governor, whether you’re asking about sleazy campaign ads or Swiss bank accounts, is for him to deny knowledge and divert the responsibility to others.

Yet, desperate times call for desperate measures and fortunately for Romney, his chief campaign strategist and several of his most senior campaign staff were Charlie Crist’s top political advisers who are ever so familiar with the political turf here in Florida.

And this ‘win at whatever cost’ approach now seen coming from the Romney camp is eerily reminiscent of good ol’ Charlie, leaving one to wonder if this is driven by the sense of entitlement that seems to be inherent in the political class, a.k.a. the establishment?

And make no mistake about it, the ‘establishment’ is fully behind Mitt Romney, as evidenced by the likes of John McCain and Connie Mack IV out stumping on his behalf. Individuals who are always quick to rail against the very system they have become an embodiment of.

In truth, McCain’s appearance signals something far more sinister. Mitt Romney has not put forth much effort to court tea party support, much like Crist’s moderate, ignore-the-tea-party strategy. Which makes sense considering the same individuals are behind both campaigns.

As we often see in both Washington and Tallahassee, the political class is first and foremost about outmaneuvering it’s opponents and the tea party needs to understand that the moderate wing of the GOP sees it as much of an opponent as it does the Democrats. Perhaps more so, since both parties share a common benefit from a continuation of the status quo.

And if Mitt Romney can secure the nomination without so much as crossing the street for the tea party, it will serve the dual purpose of ensuring the establishment retains control with ‘their guy’ and will go a very long way toward suppressing the rightward shift of the party brought on by the tea party.

Yes, the GOP presidential primary comes down to the moderate wing versus the conservative wing of the party – the establishment vs. the tea party.

With Newt Gingrich, in all his glory, representing the conservative tea party position.

In reality, this has been a two man race for some time now. Rick Santorum is reportedly pulling up stakes on Sunday and returning home two days before voting takes place. Simply put, he just doesn’t have the resources to compete in an expensive state like Florida where it’s winner take all.

Much like former Gov. Sarah Palin, who wants to see the nomination process continue to play out, Santorum supporters AND the tea party movement in Florida must see the long term effects of a Romney win. If he prevails here, the race is all but over.

A vote for Newt Gingrich ensures a continuation of this process and all parties involved live to fight another day.

One thing is clear, with Romney as the Republican nominee, the tea party may as well pack up and go home – it will have zero influence in his organization.

The moderate wing of the party is counting on the political immaturity of the tea party to prevail, the fierce independence of the many groups to prevent it from seeing the long term strategy playing out.

What is really encouraging here is that just as it has been from the very beginning, the people have it within their power to control the outcome. The question is do we choose to exercise this power.

Cross Posted at Florida Political Press

I first saw you, Governor, on Greta van Susteren’s show when you did a segment on illegal  immigration.  You were relaxed, articulate as you discussed the issues with her flying in a helicopter over the Texas/Mexico border.  You caused me to sit up in my chair and say, “WOW”.  That’s when I initially entered your corner and couldn’t wait for you to make the decision to run for the Republican nomination.

With the exception of the last two debates, no one needs to point out to you that you left a lot of chips on the poker table.  I’ve often wondered if your heart was really in the run, but I never doubted your intent was good.  You have a significant record of accomplishment as Governor, but somehow you’ve not yet fully made your case to the American people.

The main stream media has not helped you.  Your “oops” moment, at least for me, was just that.  What was the big deal, until the moderator wouldn’t let go, until embarrassment was total, but you handled it with grace and humor.

But down to the nuts and bolts.  I don’t know if you can still pull this out, but as “Iron Lady” Margaret Thatcher said to George HW, “now is not the time to go wobbly.”  My advice:  talk to me.  Talk to me and millions of other voters out there, as you would talk to your best friend.  As you talked to Greta in that helicopter.  Stand in front of the camera and talk to it as if you were talking to one individual person.  That’s how you connect.

Give a face to each issue.  Don’t just tell me why you want to eliminate three Cabinet positions, but tell me what the consequences are if we do not.  Don’t just tell me how you created jobs in Texas, but tell me why what worked in Texas can work in Illinois or Ohio or Wyoming.

What’s going to win the 2012 Presidential election for the Republicans is a candidate who not only has a vision for America, but can articulate that vision from his heart, because that’s where his belief in the America comes from.   To paraphrase Newt Gringich, whoever delivers the boldest contrast to Barack Obama can win the election.  That person can be you.

With the Iowa Caucus about to begin, we are just hours away from the official launch of the critically important 2012 presidential electoral process.

About the only thing that is certain at this point is that the Iowa results, be what they may, will be spun six ways to Sunday by the campaigns, their supporters and the talking heads in the media.

In these analyses, motive will be long and truth hard to find as everyone tries to seize the momentum. Which is really about the only role Iowa plays as it is far from a microcosm of the American people and the caucus process itself is suspect in many ways.

As things stand, the odds makers say Mitt Romney will prevail with Ron Paul coming in a very close second, the results of which could easily flip flop. Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum will battle it out for third place, with Rick Perry potentially factoring in. It’s very likely that Iowa will spell the end of Michele Bachmann’s 2012 efforts and Jon Huntsman, who’s putting all his eggs in a New Hampshire basket, will be an afterthought.

With the media being diligent in it’s never ending quest to remove all obstacles to the progressive Shangri-la it so desires, a trend already beginning to play out is to cast the electoral results as the death knell of the tea party.

We will be told that this is supposed to be the year that the tea party picked the Republican presidential candidate, a ‘great opportunity for conservatives to finally get a nominee without compromising’. And any success by Romney, Gingrich or even Ron Paul will be used as the measuring stick to point out the utter failure of this objective.

Newsflash… no it’s not!

The success or failure of the tea party will be predicated on one fact and one fact alone, that being the fate of Barack Obama. Replacing the current occupant of the White House is the key aspiration of the tea party, a fact confirmed in a recent Rasmussen poll. Not to suggest that it doesn’t matter which candidate accomplishes this, but it’s not the driving factor.

Of course, politics being what it is, it will be confusing because at the same time the media is selling you on the impending doom of the tea party, the frontrunners will all be trying to convince us that they are the tea party candidate. Particularly Ron Paul.

News flash… no he’s not!

Ron Paul will be the one candidate that will get an assist from the media in propagating the idea that he is the tea party choice because it serves their ultimate goal to associate the movement with some of his more quirky ideas. If successful in that endeavor, the media will then expose those ideas for what they see them as, ‘killing two birds with one stone’ if you will.

Additionally, any lack of success by Bachmann, Perry or Santorum will also be hung around the neck of the tea party, used by the media to highlight the inability of the movement to push the candidates that best represents it’s values to the forefront. Particularly Bachmann, being Chair of the tea party caucus in Congress.

Newsflash… no it’s not!

Since the historic success of it’s early days when there was a laser focus on T.A.R.P., Stimulus I & II and ObamaCare, the tea party has become very fragmented and it’s purpose waylaid by far too many self serving principles calling themselves ‘leaders’. The one consistency that remains is the understanding of how damaging four more years of Obama can be. The realization that this man has emboldened the enemies, both foreign and domestic, of a free and prosperous America like no other.

In what may very well be the only remaining success of this great awakening known as the tea party, defeating Barack Obama in 2012 is job one and the average, everyday Americans who’ve always been the strength of the tea party are looking for that one candidate that can accomplish this, ideology aside.

Which explains why Bachmann, Perry and Santorum struggle to resonate more than they do – the perception being that they do not have what it takes to defeat Obama in the general election.

Some may call placing ideology aside selling out, capitulating or simply the maturation of the tea party toward the realities of politics, but I think it’s indicative of something else all together. And that is, when it comes to defeating Barack Obama, failure is not an option.

Cross Posted at Florida Political Press