A lot has been written in the conservative blogosphere about redistricting in Florida, most of it conspiratorial regarding the 22nd District represented by Alan West. To summarize, many believe that the House redistricting chair Will Weatherford is deliberately screwing West because he is a Romney supporter. In actuality, Weatherford originally endorsed Pawlenty and switched to Romney when Pawlenty dropped out. Additionally, Florida picks up two seats this year due to population growth. As a result, all of the state’s congressional districts get smaller. Furthermore, simple demographics in West’s area- southeast Florida- dictate the district political configurations more than any grand conspiracy or GOP ineptitude in the Florida legislature. The deck is stacked against the GOP in this area as it is highly Democratic, comprised mainly of that party or Republicans who are certainly more moderate than Alan West. This is the area of retired northeasterners who tend to be more liberal or, if Republican, more moderate in their political outlook. I see no conspiracy or ineptitude, but demographic reality in this process. Regardless, there seems to be way too much emphasis among conservative voices about the alleged wrongs against West. Realizing that he is a rarity- a black conservative voice in the GOP- the tendency to protect him are understandable. Still, when one looks at these new districts, it is obvious that the Republicans have more to worry about this year in Florida.

A lot of confusion enters the discussion since a lot of these current districts are renumbered in the process. Perhaps the best analysis is to go district by district and look at each in turn. The 1st is basically unchanged, heavily Republican and Jeff Miller will win. The 2nd is also largely unchanged, Republican and Southerland will win. The new 3rd is the old 6th and Cliff Stearns should win here and likewise in the Republican 4th which remains unchanged as Alan Crenshaw should win. The new 5th is the old 3rd and Corrine Brown is the Democratic representative. However, it does take in some additional Republican territory and a strong GOP candidate may give her a challenge.

The new 6th is the old 7th and currently vacant, although it is nominally Republican. Once candidates emerge, expect a GOP victory. The new 7th retains more than half its old territory, but adds more than half of the old 24th. Hence, it sets up a GOP primary between incumbents John Mica and Sandy Adams with the winner likely going back to Congress and the loser going home. The new 8th is mainly the old 5th and strongly Republican. Expect Bob Posey to win here. Meanwhile, the new 9th takes in large parts of the old 8th and 15th and takes on a Democratic character. Expect the Democrats to pick up this seat as former congressman Alan Grayson will likely return. The 10th is the old 8th and another term for Republican Daniel Webster.

The new 11th is significant parts of the old 5th and 6th, both represented by Republicans. Hence, it will remain Republican. The 12th takes in parts of the old 5th and 9th, again both represented by Republicans. However, it takes in enough swing territory of Hillsborough and Pinellas counties. However, with Bilirakis running here and the district’s familiarity with him, I expect a GOP victory. The 13th is the old 10th and is a pure swing district, but should also stay in the Republican column. The 14th is the old 11th and nominally Democratic as incumbent Mary Castor will likey win for that party. And the new 15th is basically the old 12th and 9th and should be a GOP victory.

The 16th is the old 13th held by Vern Buchanan and although slightly more Democratic, should be won by Buchanan. The 17th takes in large parts of the old old 12th and 16th which had the potential to set up a Ross-Rooney primary match up. However, Ross opted for the 15th leaving Rooney the likely winner in 2012. The new 18th takes in parts of the old 16th and 22nd- again, both held by Republicans, one of them being Alan West who will run in this district instead of the 22nd. Although the GOP can count on Martin County, West will have to make serious inroads in St. Lucie County, but cannot count on the parts of Palm Beach County that remain in the new district. Thus far, the Democrats have no candidate, but one can suspect that West’s days in Congress are numbered. The new 19th is the old 14th and should be won by a Republican again (formerly held by Connie Mack who is running for Senate). The 20th is the old 23rd and should be retained by Hastings, a Democrat.

The old 19th is now numbered the 21st and Ted Deutch will win again. The new 22nd certainly retains a large portion of its former territory, but loses enough of the Republican enclaves to send Alan West to the 18th. Expect a Democrat to win here. Meanwhile, the new 23rd is basically the old 20th held by my favorite Democratic moon bat- Debbie Wasserman-Schultz, who is not going anywhere. The 24th is the old 17th and safely Democratic while the 25th is an amalgamation of the old 21st and 25th, Hispanic and GOP-leaning and likely victory.

Half of the old 25th is now part of the 26th, Hispanic and certainly more Democratic-leaning than in the past. Hence, GOP incumbent David Rivera will have a difficult time retaining this seat and one should not be surprised if a Democrat wins, as I predict. Finally, the 27th is parts of the old 18th and 21st, both currently held by Republicans. Although popular Iliana Ros-Lehtinen will run again, should the Democrats field a strong, Hispanic candidate, the newly designed district is even more Democratic than the 26th. However, until a candidate is named, we will leave this district in the GOP column.

The current delegation favors the GOP 19-6. Only Corrine Brown could be considered vulnerable this year. Hence, five of the six Democratic incumbents will definitely win. Of the 19 incumbent Republicans, I am predicting that two will definitely lose- Alan West and either John Mica or Sandy Adams, most likely Adams. That leaves seven Republican incumbents vulnerable this year. That sets up a recipe for disaster. It also underscores the importance of the presidential race as coat tails WILL play a role in this state. Of those seven Republican incumbents, I would count Webster, Bilirakis, Ross and Diaz-Balart as likely winners. That would make the count, asssuming Brown prevails (a big assumption), that would make the count 14-6 for the GOP. Expect Grayson to pick up a seat; hence 14-7 now. In the 13th, I am expecting a Democratic pick up: 14-8. The 22nd will flip: 14-9 I think because of voter familiarity, both Rivera and Diaz-Balart will win: 16-9. A Republican will take the vacant 6th: 17-9. Meanwhile, a Democrat will likely take the other slot: 17-10. This represents a two seat loss for the Republicans plus a 4 seat pick up for the Democrats for a net Democratic gain of 6 House seats out of Florida in 2012.

With Obama’s approval ratings in Florida at 45% (they were at 47% before the latest poll), the GOP’s chances have improved. If Santorum or Gingrich is the Republican nominee, the state belongs to Obama. In short, it would appear that only Romney stands a chance of defeating Obama in Florida (latest poll has him trailing Obama by one point 45-44%). If Obama was two points higher in his state approval rating, I would give him this state with no doubts. However, the fact that he has dropped gives me serious pause. I am going to err, for now, on the side of incumbency having its advantages and give their 29 electoral votes to Obama with a big FOR NOW.

However, I also believe it will be a mixed bag of success here as Connie Mack will defeat Bill Nelson.

Finally tally:
Obama wins the Presidency 290 to 248 electoral votes;
A net gain of 3 Governors;
A net gain of 5 Senate seats as the GOP takes the Senate;
A net loss of 9 House seats as the GOP retains the House.

Georgia gains a seat in the House due to population growth. In presidential politics, I personally have my worries in Georgia. With state approval ratings above the national average, Obama’s chances of picking up an unanticipated 16 electoral votes is a real possibility. While it is true that Georgia has been a fairly reliable GOP state since 2000, the margins have not been exactly stellar averaging 51.7% of the total vote. Should Obama pick off Georgia in 2012, it changes the entire electoral picture and math. An August 2011 Gallup poll put his approval rating in Georgia at 48%. At first, this would seem strange and certainly bucks the trend after a dismal summer for Obama. More recent polling from sources in Georgia put his approval rating in the low to mid 40s. That would give me some hope here. The GOP cannot take Georgia for granted and needs to defend these votes. I will go with recent electoral history and call their 16 votes for the Republicans, although it will be very, very close.

In the House races, things become interesting because of the addition of a district this year. The new district is numbered the 9th and is located in the northeastern part of the state. The current House delegation favors the GOP 8-5.

Three of the incumbent Democrats are safe in their newly drawn districts. John Lewis in the 5th, which comprises urban Atlanta, will face only a primary challenge from Fulton County Judge Michael Johnson. Hank Johnson’s 4th District, which includes the eastern part of Atlanta, became slightly less Democratic, but is safe. David Scott in the 13th falls into the same category. The 2nd District, held by Sanford Bishop, won with 51% of the vote in 2010 against Rick Allen and 2012 is shaping up as a rematch. This is a minority district in the southwestern corner of Georgia. However, it is expected Bishop will fare better in 2012 as the district picked up Macon. Still, the race bears some watching and could be indicative of the political winds in Georgia this cycle.

For Republicans, of their eight current seats, all appear safe. No major changes were made to the 3rd or 7th Districts. In the 1st District, Jack Kingston has at one time or another represented every part of his new territory. He added a Democratic stronghold in Savannah- a direct blow to the 12th- but he won with 72% of the vote in 2010 leaving him a comfortable margin of error. Tom Price in the 6th will have a considerably different looking district this time out. He added the northern parts of Cobb, Fulton and DeKalb counties while losing Cherokee County. In 2010, he ran unopposed and although he may draw a challenger this year, he is safe. The 8th District stretches from the Florida border to Monroe County. Considered somewhat vulnerable, Austin Scott probably gained the most in redistricting. He lost Democratic territory, including Macon, to the 2nd District and gained some solid GOP territory in the exchange. Although he may face former representative Jim Marshall in a general election, the area has been definitely drawn to Scott’s benefit and he should improve on his 53% of the vote from 2010.

Paul Gingrey sees a possible electoral and financial gain by having the wealthy northern part of Atlanta drawn into his district- the 11th. Meanwhile, Paul Broun in the 10th gains new territory to conquer. Whenever this happens, there is always the possibility of a primary challenge popping up, but there are none thus far. Regardless, Broun is known for his grassroots organization that already has tentacles in these new areas. And in the 14th, Tom Graves, which is the northwest corner of the state, faces only a primary challenge. That wil come from both Steve Tarvin and Jerry Shearin both who admit it will be difficult to beat Graves or even run to the right of his conservative voting record. Graves received a boost when Bob Barr- a former representative and 2008 Libertarian Party presidential candidate- announced he would remain at his law firm rather than mount a primary challenge. In conclusion, we can safely say that all current Republican incumbents will win reelection, leaving only the new 9th District and the 12th, currently held by Democrat John Barrow.

The new district- labeled the 9th- is located in the growing and somewhat conservative northeast corner of the state. It is generally believed that a Republican will win this seat. The only question is who? In effect, this race will be a microcosm of the national debate in the GOP- the establishment versus the Tea Party/outsiders.

On the Tea party side is talk show host Martha Zoller. She has thus far gained the support and endorsement of Herman Cain and Redstate’s own Erick Erickson. On the establishment side is state representative Doug Collins. Although Governor Nathan Deal has not officially endorsed anyone in this race, his finger prints are all over the race. Several operatives from Deal’s campaign are now working for Collins. Collins was a major floor leader in the legislature for the Deal agenda. Nathan Deal pushed for the creation of the district in this part of the state, tacit approval of a Collins candidacy. And Collins was one of the most vocal boosters of the seat in this area.

If ever a Democratic incumbent had a target on his back it would be John Barrow in the 12th District. In redistricting, he lost his home base of Savannah while gaining the heavy Republican suburbs of Augusta. Barrow is a leader of the Blue Dog Democrats in the House and has shown some independence from the Democratic leadership of Pelosi. However, a sober analysis of his voting record indicates that he voted with the Democratic Party 91% of the time. What sets him apart, however, is his votes on some marquee issues- the vote against TARP, Obamacare and cap-and-trade. Under ordinary circumstances, this would be enough to keep him in office. But his likely GOP opponent- state representative Lee Anderson- will remind voters of two key votes by Barrow- his support of the Obama stimulus and his vote against repeal of Obamacare.

One cannot count out Barrow. He has been on the short end of the stick in redistricting in the past and survived. He is considered a tireless campaigner and is politically savvy. He is already trying to spin those votes Anderson will highlight to his advantage. For example, with the stimulus he is saying that the amount spent was not a problem given the circumstances at the time, but there was a definite problem with HOW those funds were spent. With Obamacare, he says that the law is here to stay, that the repeal attempts were window dressing, and that the law should and can be improved without outright repeal.

The worst case scenario in Georgia is for Barrow to win and Obama to claim their 16 electoral votes. A better scenario would be for Barrow to win while Obama loses the 16 electoral votes. The best case scenario would be for the GOP to take the 16 electoral votes, the new 9th District, and for Barrow to lose. I am taking the middle ground and saying the GOP picks up a seat in the House (the 9th) and Obama loses the state.

Running totals thus far:
Obama 261 votes to 247 for the GOP;
Net gain 3 Governors;
Net gain 4 Senate seats;
Net loss 3 House seats.

Next: Florida, part 1

Politics in South Carolina is not for the faint of heart. In 1978, a stooge third party candidate was created to hurl anti-Semitic remarks against a Democratic House candidate. There was the 1980 campaign of Strom Thurmond orchestrated by noted operative and South Carolina native, Lee Atwater, that added the phrase “push polling” to the political lexicon. Everyone is familiar with the strategy employed by the Reagan campaign to discredit Geraldine Ferraro. In 1988, after Tom Foley became Speaker of the House, the RNC under Atwater’s leadership, questioned his conservative credentials by stating he was “in the closet,” a phrase that also questioned his sexuality. In 2000, the whisper campaign directed against John McCain left South Carolina primary voters believing his wife was a drug addict and that he fathered an illegitimate black child. McCain never recovered and Bush went on to win. As technology grew in importance, the practice of “robocalls” were perfected in South Carolina. Lest anyone think that the GOP has a monopoly on this, in the aftermath of Obama’s primary victory, race was injected into the Clinton-Obama contest after a historically accurate and non-racial observation by Bill Clinton that Jesse Jackson had also won in South Carolina at one time. In 2010, as Governor Mark Sanford was hiking the Appalachian Trail by way of Argentina, a relatively obscure state politician, Nikki Haley, rose to prominence but not before staving off unsubstantiated allegations of affairs which depicted her as nothing less than a whore, let alone a “rag head.”

And to say that race does not play a role in the state is to deny reality. While not as overt as in the Thurmond years, a look at voting results demonstrate the extreme racial polarization in the state. In 2008, Obama won 96% of the black vote while McCain took 73% of the white vote. Four years previous, Bush took 78% of the white vote. In the GOP primary, 95% of those casting ballots are white while whites make up only 67% of the state’s population. While some in the liberal press have portrayed legitimate differences between the parties as being racially motivated, the differences go deeper. Many see programs that only benefit minorities- education and job training. The rightward shift of older voters see Democratic programs that are of no benefit to them directly. Interviews with the rank and file black citizens reveals that they perceive the GOP in South Carolina as racist. The shadow of Thurmond stretches long over politics there. This state will not be critical to Obama’s chances in 2012 and he knows it. That might explain his war on the state such as unleashing the NRLB against the Boeing plant in South Carolina. It also explains why Holder’s DOJ is taking the state to task over voter ID laws. Obama realizes he can count on 95% of the black vote. Our first “post-racial” President is not above racial politics. These efforts are nothing more than an effort to “punish” the white voters of South Carolina.

And Obama and Holder have done a great job in further polarizing racial politics in the state. They have portrayed the voter ID law as an attempt to disenfranchise blacks in the state who, they assume, lack the ability to get a state-issued ID. That is, the first black President and his black Attorney General believe that blacks are just plain stupid and lack the ability to get an ID. They have also portrayed the GOP as being particularly hard on Obama only because of his skin color. To them, it has nothing to do with his policies.

However, Democrats engage in this racial politics at their own peril as the 2010 census bears out. South Carolina’s population increased to the point where they gain a House seat in 2013. Additionally, most of the population gain occurred not in Democratic areas, but more white and conservative areas.

In the 1st District, Tim Scott, a Republican who happens to be black, seeks to defend the seat he won in 2010. Based along the state’s southern coast, it includes large portions of Charleston and Beaufort counties, including Hilton Head. It remains favorable to Republicans. If anything, Joe Wilson’s 2nd District became more Republican as it takes in heavy GOP territory in Aiken and Lexington counties. Another Republican, Jeff Duncan, represents the 3rd located in the northwest corner of the state along the Georgia border and is heavily GOP leaning. In 2010, freshman Republican Trey Gowdy won the 4th District with 64% of the vote. Located along the border with North Carolina, it mirrors the neighboring 3rd District. It is believed Jim Tobias will challenge Gowdy.

Yet another Republican freshman, Mick Mulvaney, unfortunately may have taken the brunt of any damage to the GOP in South Carolina in what can best be described as a trade off for the creation of the new district favorable to the GOP to the east. Specifically, portions of the more Democratic Fairfield and Lee counties were added to the 5th. This may make Mulvaney vulnerable to a primary challenge or a strong, centrist Democratic opponent.

The minority dominated 6th District is a gift to incumbent Jim Clyburn, the lone Democrat in the House delegation. It is possible a strong black Republican candidate would make this race more interesting, but Clyburn is a mainstay in this district and should win.

The new 7th District is centered around Myrtle Beach and encompasses most of the state’s northern coastal region. At least ten Republicans have stepped forward in what may be one of the most crowded fields in the country. Best known among them are Andre Bauer (ex-Lt. Governor, ex-state senator and one time challenger to Haley). Horry County politicians should dominate here as both Chad Prosser and Tom Rice have also announced their intentions to run. For the Democrats, state representative Ted Vick looks like the strongest Democratic candidate.

This rendition of the congressional map almost did not come about. Looming over the ultimate decision was DOJ approval of the map under the VRA. Originally, there was a competing plan to create a new district based in Beaufort County to the south that would have allowed state senator Tom Davis to run for the new seat. Instead, Davis eventually backed the Horry County-centered district fearing that courts would intervene and draw new lines and jeopardize other Republican gains this year. In short, Davis took one for the team and eventually backed down in his demands. And even though the GOP field is crowded, there is the belief that state representative Alan Clemmons, considered the best candidate in this new district, will eventually enter the race.

With approval ratings in the low 40s and no conceivable upside, the GOP candidate will win the state’s nine electoral votes. Put another way, the Obama Administration has so pissed off the people of South Carolina that it is likely his approval ratings will DROP rather than rise as November nears. I expect the GOP nominee to improve upon McCain’s 54% showing from 2008. Likewise, the GOP will gain a seat in the House out of South Carolina this year. There are too many qualified, strong Republicans in the new district, indicative of its GOP leaning status. The only thing would be for Vick to present himself as a DINO and Republicans killing themselves in a fight for the nomination. Being South Carolina, anything could happen.

Running totals thus far:
Obama with 261 electoral votes to 232 for the GOP;
Net gain of 3 Governors;
Net gain of 4 Senate seats;
Net loss of 4 House seats.

Next: Georgia

If Barack Obama had little room to maneuver in neighboring Virginia, there is an even smaller margin of error in North Carolina in 2012. Barely winning the state’s 15 electoral votes in 2008 will translate into an even tougher job this time around. Mainly reliant on heavy voter turnout in the state’s more urban centers, he will be hard-pressed to replicate his performance. Still, he does maintain an approval rating in the state that should cause worry within the GOP. Based strictly upon those numbers, one would have to give the nod to Obama here. However, the margin of victory would be approaching recount territory, especially if the electoral count is close. There IS a reason the Democrats are holding their convention here. And one can rest assured that Obama will be showing his mug a lot in North Carolina this year. Only because these predictions are so early in the cycle and will be revisited as the elections grow near, I will stick with my original criteria and give the Tar Heel state to Obama again, although I firmly believe that by time November rolls around, this could change.

There will also be a Governor’s race this year that is tied to redistricting efforts in the state. A little on that in a few moments. However, things changed very quickly in the dynamics of this race when incumbent Democrat Bev Perdue decided not to seek another term after reading the political tea leaves. Given the state’s fiscal situation and unemployment rate which worsened under her tenure, she would likely face certain defeat. Deciding to save what was once a promising political future, she opted out. Lining up for the Democrats so far are Lt. Governor Walter Dalton and state representative Bill Faison. However, those names are sort of the B-list of candidates. Other names being bandied about are Bill Etheridge, Mike McIntyre and Heath Shuler. Etheridge has been the most cagey in responding to his political aspirations- one day thinking about a run for Governor, the next thinking of taking on Renee Elmers again in the House race. This is where redistricting figures into the whole picture as the legislature made it decidedly more difficult for Democratic incumbents to win reelection in their districts with certain exceptions. That was the main reason Brad Miller decided to retire rather than run for reelection.

For the GOP, the former mayor of Charlotte, Pat McCrory is the frontrunner and will likely face only token opposition in the primary. They would come into the general election well-rested and funded. Preliminary hypothetical polling indicates that McCrory would defeat any likely Democratic candidate at this time. This is sort of indicative of the damage done to the Democratic brand in the state inflicted by the Perdue tenure. It is also a reason to believe that this will affect Obama at the top of the ticket. Still, anything can happen as Shuler especially has shown independence from Democratic orthodoxy in the House and the fact he took on Pelosi for the leadership role bolsters him. Regardless, at this point I am predicting a McCrory victory and unanticipated GOP pick up of a Governor’s seat.

The current House delegation is 7-6 Democratic. In redistricting, what goes around comes around. Years of Democratic gerrymandering in previous redistricting cycles produced the 7-6 split that exists to this day. But, this remains a fairly consistent conservative state and people like McIntyre, Kissel and Shuler had to adopt a centrist stance and some independence from the Democratic leadership in order to win. With the goal of shoring up incumbent Republicans, the map changed that it endangers these Democrats.

First, the safe Democrats. In the 1st, George Butterfield should win in a district that stretches from the Virginia border yo Greeneville. The other safe district would be the 12th held by Melvin Watt. This is a minority district, the infamous gerrymandered serpentine one that was left alone. He will seek a challenge from Tea Party activist Jack Brosch.

The 4th, represented by David Price, is the area west of Raleigh and includes the college towns of Durham and Chapel Hill. In fact, Price worked and fought very hard to keep Chapel Hill in his district. The interesting part is that Brad Miller was drawn into this district from his current 13th District. Rather than face a primary against Price- one he would likely lose- he decided upon the new 12th. Price will likely face George Hutchins who ran against Price in 2010 and lost.

As far as the safe Republicans, Howard Coble, described as a moderate and representing the 6th District in the central part of the state around Greensboro, announced he will run and likely win. In the 9th, far right Republican Sue Myrick will likely face a primary challenge from Tea Party activist Michael Stein. This is the southern and western suburbs of Charlotte. And Walter Jones’ 3rd District in the northern coastal area of the state is considered a safe retention. In the 5th, the district of Virginia Foxx became slightly more Democratic. This area extends from the Virginia border to the Winston-Salem area. She will probably face Treva Johnson, the former chair of the Wilkes County Democratic Party, but should win.

If any Republicans face a tougher time in 2012 than in the past, the first would be Renee Elmers who defeated Bob Etheridge in 2010. He is mulling a run against Elmers who could be considered a more centrist Republican representing the area around Raleigh. However, Etheridge is being pushed towards a gubernatorial run. Considering that Elmers won with 49% of the vote in 2010 and being a freshman, another run against Etheridge would appear tough, especially if Obama increases voter turnout here. Until a decision is announced by Etheridge, one would have to give the nod to Elmers at this point. Patrick McHenry took one for the team in the 10th District. Extending from South Carolina to the Tennessee border, the district took in a huge chunk of Democratic Buncombe County including the city of Asheville. In fact, he will probably run against the former mayor of that city, Terry Bellamy. It is believed he retained enough GOP territory to fight off a challenge, but this will be a tougher race this time out and he will not win with 71% of the vote as he did in 2010. He will also have to survive a primary battle against Ken Fortenberry.

Republicans believe they can take the 7th from Mike McIntyre. The area was made more favorable for the GOP. Located in the southeastern part of the state along the coast and extending to Fayatteville, 2010 challenger Iliaro Pantano is considering another run much to the chagrin of the North Carolina GOP. They believe that state senator David Rouzer would be a better candidate. This could become academic if McIntyre decides on a run for governor. The 8th, represented by Larry Kissel, became more favorable to the GOP. So far, the Republican field is crowded.

In the 11th, Heath Shuler recently announced he would not seek reelection which fuels speculation he will run for governor. Located in the southwestern part of the state, it lost a large part of Democratic Buncombe County. In all reality, despite his Blue Dog status, votes against most of the costly and controversial Obama programs and his stand against Nancy Pelosi, Shuler would have faced a tough battle to win another term. One can only imagine what would have happened if Shuler had prevailed in his fight against Pelosi. Most likely, this seat will be won by District Attorney Jeff Hunt, a Republican gain.

Finally, there is the 13th where Brad Miller announced he is vacating the seat. He, too, may seek the gubernatorial nod. Running from Raleigh north to the Virginia border, the new district took in more GOP territory which would have made it harder for any Democrat- including Miller- to win. That is true especially since the fairly popular ex-mayor of Raleigh, Paul Coble, announced his intention to take on Miller in the general election. Coble will, however, face a primary against perennial candidate Vernon Robinson and George Holding, best known as the prosecutor who investigated former Senator and presidential candidate (and wife cheater while she suffered from cancer, which makes Newt Gingrich look almost saintly) John Edwards.

In conclusion, and with the caveat that things could change quickly, I will assign the state’s 15 electoral votes to Obama for now. I believe McCrory has enough of a head start on any challenger and will be the next Republican Governor- an unexpected pick up. Because Obama will win by the skin of his teeth, his coat tails will have no effect down the ticket. With the elimination of Miller and Shuler, the GOP can expect at least a two seat pick up.

Running totals thus far:
Obama with 261 electoral votes to 223 for the GOP;
Net gain of 3 Governors;
Net gain of 4 Senate seats;
Net loss of 5 House seats.

Next: South Carolina

If we say nothing while watching someone walk off a cliff and plunge to her death we would be criminally negligent.  If we ride past a home in the early morning and see smoke rising from the roof and don’t call 911 we would be criminally negligent.   Today, as we watch our nation walk off a cliff, as we watch the smoke rise from the home of the brave and the land of the free, if we do not do all we can to raise the awareness of our fellow Americans we are criminally negligent.   

Those who are awake to the coming end of limited government have watched this slow motion train wreck for our entire lives.  We have watched as inch by inch the Federal Government has lured our fellow citizens into one entitlement trap after another.  We have wondered when they will wake up and pay attention.   

Election after election we have marveled at the shallowness of the debate.  One side says, “If you elect them they will gut the safety net and throw Grandma off the cliff!”  And after every election no matter who wins the safety net becomes more of a hammock.  The other side says, “If you elect them they will gut the defenses and whoever the currently fashionable model of a barbarian horde happens to be will soon stifle freedom, walk upon Old Glory and turn us all into slaves.”  And after every election the defense budget grows and the policeman of the world continues to walk the beat. 

Blind justice may be good but a blind electorate is falling for these two straw man arguments electing demagogues whose motto might as well be, “You know I’m lying but you like what I say.”  The social safety net will not be eliminated by any of these empty suits. It will instead become the sack the cats are sewn in before the crazy guy throws it in the river.  The defense budget will not be gutted.  It won’t even be reduced.  Baseline budgeting and secret off budget black ops funding will make sure our 900 base 130 country overseas empire continues to make sure the sun never sets on the stars and stripes.  

As each constitutional guarantee falls by the wayside we wonder when enough people will turn off the game, forget about the vampires, the hoarders, and the dysfunctional non-reality reality stars and realize our nation and our children’s heritage is being transformed into what our ancestors fought a revolution to be rid of?   

Most of us, even the comatose can recite, “We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty, and the pursuit of Happiness.”  Our assembly line public education has drilled that into our heads. 

What our one more brick in the wall system hopes we don’t recall is the next line, “That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed,”  And they pray that we don’t shout the next line, “That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to affect their Safety and Happiness.” 

When a government uses the excuse of security to tap our phones, monitor electronic communications, and generally read our mail without a warrant, to arrest and detain American citizens on American soil without a warrant, and hold them indefinitely without trial, to wage war without declaration or even congressional approval what we have here is more than a failure to communicate.  What we have is a central government establishing a tyranny in the name of providing security. 

Ben Franklin told us, “Those who desire to give up freedom in order to gain security will not have, nor do they deserve, either one.” 

Looking for substance we tune into the ad nauseam insipid debates organized and orchestrated by a partisan press merely trying to make the Republicans look like the bar scene from Star Wars.  What do we hear?  Except for the lone exception we hear one after another big government professional calling for less spending, less regulations and more war.  Out of that list all we will get is more war.  And the lone exception is continuously relegated to the status of an also ran by every news organization including the supposedly conservative one. 

On the other side we are offered four more years of this: four more years of total transformation until we wake up one day in the Progressive version of Heaven: a cradle-to-grave nanny state fighting endless wars for peace.  Regimented, controlled, secure and listening as the same comatose voters who brought us to this place repeat the pabulum that jumps off the teleprompters into the mouths of the info-announcers as if these were their own opinions. 

We cannot, we must not allow this to happen without at the very least exerting every effort to wake up anyone within the sound of our voice.  To do this we of course must be awake and aware ourselves.   

If we do not know where we came from how can we know where we are?  If we don’t know where we are, how can we know where we are going?   

We must study to show ourselves approved.  If we lose the foundation how will the structure stand?  We must know and understand the constitutional and historical underpinnings of this noble experiment in human freedom if we are to preserve it.  We must know and understand the flow of current events if we wish to shape the future. 

Study, learn, share, and look for the lights in the tower.  One if by land and two if by sea, we must recognize the signs of the times and try to wake up as many people as we can.  The time is late, the hour is dark, but the right shall prevail. 

Forty-seven years ago a young pre-rap poet songwriter tried to wake people up to the intrusion of government and the need to recognize it when he said, “Maggie comes fleet foot face full of black soot talkin’ that the heat put plants in the bed but the phone’s tapped anyway Maggie says that many say they must bust in early May orders from the D.A.  Look out kid Don’t matter what you did. Walk on your tiptoes don’t try “No-Doz” better stay away from those that carry around a fire hose keep a clean nose watch the plain clothes you don’t need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows”   

Knowing which way the wind blows should tell us that we must do our duty to save our country or it will be lost.  I don’t know about you but in the future when my grandchildren ask, “What did you do to hold back the night?”  I want to be able to say more than, “I didn’t notice the darkness.” 

Keep the faith, keep the peace, we shall overcome. 

Dr. Owens teaches History, Political Science, and Religion for Southside Virginia Community College.  He is the author of the History of the Future @ http://drrobertowens.com © 2012 Robert R. Owens drrobertowens@hotmail.com  Follow Dr. Robert Owens on Facebook or Twitter @ Drrobertowens

Virginia may very well prove to be an early predictor of results on Election Day 2012. Obama desperately needs to hang onto Virginia’s 13 electoral votes in order to be reelected. Although he would still have a path to victory, especially if he manages to retain a Pennsylvania or Ohio (although I am putting them in the GOP column at this point), it would create greater pressures on his chances in North Carolina or Florida. I still firmly believe this race will come down to Florida, especially since they get two extra electoral votes in 2012. However, the vital importance of Virginia cannot be taken for granted.

In 2008, Obama won Virginia with 52.6% of the vote. A close analysis of that election indicates that there was a lot of red territory on the map of this state. Where Obama concentrated on was the more “liberal” areas of the DC suburbs and other growing urban areas of the state. The only highly populated counties he won outside the DC area were Ablemarle in the north central part of the state and Montgomery County in the southwestern part of the state. Obviously, this will be his strategy going forward in 2012. Any Republican inroads in these areas will eat away at that 52.6% vote count and spell trouble for Obama. Polling out of the DC suburbs especially must be closely monitored. Also, note that the GOP does not have to win these areas, just make them close to prevail.

With a hotly contested Senate race coupled with some interesting House races along with a fairly popular Republican governor and an Attorney General at ground zero in the Obamacare case, Obama has a lot of work to do in Virginia. When assigning these electoral votes, I generally look to approval ratings from a variety of sources in the particular states. For Virginia, he stands at 47.5%. Generally, that is close enough to push him over the 50% of the vote threshold for victory. The trend in Virginia mirror those nationally. Not to burst the bubble of anyone, but at this point I would have to assign Virginia’s 13 electoral votes to Obama.

The Senate race was made interesting when incumbent Jim Webb decided not to run. There were inklings since he ceased fund raising. Some polling indicated that he would have problems in light of GOP gains in 2010. Some polls even showed him trailing George Allen. That then left the door open for Tim Kaine to enter the race. He is the former head of the DNC and also a popular former Governor of Virginia succeeding Mark Warner. His tenure as governor certainly does not cast him as a liberal, but more of a centrist. He opposes abortion, but does not call for over-ruling Roe vs. Wade. Although opposed to capital punishment, he resided over 11 executions. His accomplishments as mayor of Richmond cannot be overlooked either. Still, his electoral history is one of winning close elections on a statewide basis.

With minimal token primary opposition, Kaine should enter the general election rather unencumbered. He has a rather sizable war chest and his connections when head of the DNC should provide additional money as needed. Since he was tapped by Obama to run the DNC, that could have its advantages, or disadvantages depending on which way the political winds are blowing in October 2012 in Virginia. Only Courtney Lynch, a consultant, has been mentioned as a possible outsider type roadblock to his candidacy especially since the more popular ex-congressman, Thomas Perreillo declined to run after Kaine announced he would run.

On the Republican side is former Governor, congressman, and Senator George Allen. In 2000, he won the Senate seat by defeating incumbent Chuck Robb. His voting record was fairly conservative while a Senator. In 2006, he ran for reelection against Webb and was moving towards another term until the infamous “macaca” incident. It will not be recounted here as I am sure it will throughout this campaign. Technically speaking, Allen fits the mold of a good fit also for Virginia. The only real knock on him is these comments- some real, but others unsubstantiated.

Unlike Kaine, Allen will face a tougher primary challenge. Some polls put Allen way up, even against the generic “more conservative” choice. Bob Marshall of the Virginia house of delegates is one person. However, the one I find interesting and intriguing is the head of the Virginia Tea Party Patriots, Jamie Radtke. From everything I have heard and read, if I were a Virginia resident, I would give her a good long look (and I am not necessarily a booster or cheer leader for the Tea Party). Since Virginia opted for a primary, the advantage goes to Allen. Still, keep an eye on Radtke in the future.

In hypothetical polling thus far, there is tremendous back and forth. Interestingly, when a state senator, Allen represented Ablemarle County and that could pull votes from Obama there. Of course, both candidates are well known to Virginia voters. Many decisions will be last minute. However, if I had to, I think the advantage at this point currently lies with Kaine. Thus, and this could change with the wind, the seat should remain in Democratic hands.

The current House delegation is 8-3 Republican. Population changes within the state mandated changes in boundaries with the overall effect being not a GOP over reach, but making sure incumbents were protected. The 1st District, comprised of the Tidewaters region, gained Caroline County, but lost Hampton and Newport News. Incumbent Rob Wittman should win reelection here. Likewise, Randy Forbes in the 4th is more safe as his district now extends from the North Carolina border to the suburbs of Richmond, but loses the Democratic stronghold of Petersburg and parts of Suffolk. Robert Goodlatte’s 6th District extends along the West Virginia border and includes some of the most conservative areas of the state including Lynchburg. Eric Cantor will win in the 7th. Finally, 10th District representative Frank Wolf has an area that stretches from the DC exurbs to the West Virginia and Maryland borders. He received more conservative territory, but some that could open him to a primary challenge in the future, or a strong Democratic challenger. In 2012, it will a former Assistant Secretary of the Navy, John Douglass.

That leaves three Democratic districts and three held by freshmen Republicans. Bobby Scott’s Third District is the only minority one in the state. Before redistricting, it was 53% minority and 60% afterwards. That has brought on a chorus of subtle racism innuendo and assertions that the state is concentrating blacks in one district. However, that district was 64,000 under the ideal and thus added Hampton, Norfolk and Newport News as well as Petersburg. The 8th- the bulk of the DC suburbs including Alexandria and Arlington- should be an easy win for Jim Moran. And Gerry Connolly’s 10th, which includes Fairfax and the far western suburbs of DC, became more Democratic.

As for the freshmen Republicans, the 2nd changes little and includes the western shore and Virginia Beach. Scott Rigell, the strongest of the freshmen, remains vulnerable to a strong Democratic challenger in the future, but not this year. The 5th- held by Robert Hurt- grew and now extends from the North Carolina border to Fauquier County, a fast growing suburban county. Finally, the Ninth is represented by Morgan Griffith and comprises the southwestern area of the state which is very conservative territory and should remain in his hands.

In conclusion, this is a state so close on the edge that a minor event one way or the other can change outcomes. Although I predict an Obama win in Virginia, it will be very close. If the electoral vote is very close, the results in Virginia may be fodder for a recount. Also, I think Tim Kaine will prevail, again by a very small margin. The only area where a prediction can be made with any confidence is with the House races where the current 8-3 makeup should prevail.

Running count thus far:
Obama with 246 electoral votes to 223 for the GOP
net gain of 2 Governors;
net gain of 4 Senate seats, and;
net loss of 7 House seats.

Next: North Carolina

There is another Senatorial race in 2012 in Delaware. Democratic incumbent Tom Carper, to read the liberal press in the First State, is not particularly popular. However, this seems to be the mantra every year in Delaware when it comes to a Senate race. The problem for the GOP is that there are few viable candidates to take on these “substandard” Democratic opponents. Thus far, the only Republican to step forward is businessman Kevin Wade. His website sounds great and he has begun a “get acquainted” tour of Delaware. Most likely, however, this will not be that close of a race. The same can be said of their lone House seat as the Democrats should win that one also. And in keeping with the blue nature of Delaware, look for them to take Delaware’s three electoral votes.

The District of Columbia gets no representation in Congress, but they do get three electoral votes. Considering that they gave Obama greater than 80% of the vote in 2008, I think we can safely assign those three electoral votes to Obama in 2012 also.

Obviously, the main focus of this entry is Maryland. Considered deeply blue, this is a state that has elected exactly two Republican governors since 1960, and only one of them served a full term. There is a Senate race as incumbent Ben Cardin will likely win another term to the Senate over Tom Mangione, a former police officer and Secret Service Agent.

Instead, the House races and redistricting is where all the action is in Maryland. There are three dominant themes here among the House races: Baltimore, Roscoe Bartlett, and John Sarbanes. In 2010, Andy Harris defeated Democrat Frank Kratovil to win Maryland’s Eastern Shore area with 54% of the vote. His district, inadvertently, became a little safer as the Democratic legislature obviously had other ideas in mind- Baltimore, John Sarbanes and Roscoe Bartlett. However, Harris may be vulnerable to a challenge later in the decade.

The safe Democratic seats are the 2nd represented by Dutch Ruppersberger who won with 64% of the vote in 2010. His new district takes in parts of Anne Arundel, Baltimore, Harford and Howard counties as well as part of the city of Baltimore. The GOP has a 4-man field in the primary led, probably, by state senator Nancy Jacobs, although any of the others (Larry Smith, Richard McDonough, and Richard Impallaria) could emerge. The 4th, although losing parts of Democratic Montgomery County, should be safe in the hands of Donna Edwards. She opposed this redistricting plan that went into effect, but bit the bullet for the good of the party. Regardless, she should win easily, although not with 83% of the vote as she did in 2010.

Steny Hoyer- Nancy Pelosi’s water boy- should be safe in the 5th which extends north into parts of Anne Arundel County although don’t discount a strong run by Anthony O’Donnell for the GOP. He is the minority leader in Maryland’s house of delegates. Elijah Cummings in the 7th- basically Baltimore proper- also is a shoo-in. Finally, Chris Van Hollen’s 8th District becomes a little more Democratic by taking in the bulk of Montgomery County at the expense of Edwards.

The key changes are the 3rd District held by John Sarbanes and the 6th District held by Republican Roscoe Bartlett. Generally speaking, the 3rd District expanded outwards and enlarged to take in as much physical territory as humanly possible. In essence, it becomes sort of a statewide district without encompassing the entire state. The reason is that the Democrats are clearly attempting to expose incumbent Democrat John Sarbanes to a larger segment of the population. Sarbanes is the son of a former Governor and Senator from Maryland, Paul Sarbanes. He is frequently mentioned by Maryland Democrats as a future Senate or Governor candidate for the party. Unfortunately, by enlarging his district, they created some odd looking districts that would have 6th grade civics students screaming “gerrymander!” But, such is the nature of politics in Maryland. And surprisingly, no lawsuits. Hmmmm….

Which brings us to the 6th District represented by Roscoe Bartlett. Originally, this district encompassed rural and conservative areas in the western part of the state along the West Virginia and Pennsylvania borders. However, with redistricting, in addition to the existing Allegany, Garrett and Washington counties, parts of Montgomery and Frederick counties, traditionally Democratic areas that skirt the DC suburbs, were added. Bartlett is a trooper however and has stated that he will seek reelection in this district despite having an obviously large target on his back. Additionally, this was done to the benefit of state senator Robert Garagiola who intends to run against Bartlett should he survive the GOP primary. Because new areas were drawn into the district, it opened Bartlett to primary challengers chief among them state senator David Brinckley. Assuming Bartlett survives, he will be a somewhat weakened candidate against a rested and funded Democratic opponent. If Bartlett defeats Garagiola, then it would be one hell of a Republican stand.

So, what does this all have to do with Baltimore? Over the decade, the city has seen population loss. Other areas, mainly Montgomery County and the general area around the DC suburbs has shown population increases. Yet, Baltimore or its immediate surroundings is represented by four different districts. This may be a future talking point as the population shifts further. The Democrats in the Maryland legislature may have settled some scores and may have increased Democratic chances this year and maybe through this decade. But, they, by ignoring demographic reality, may have sown the seeds of discontent later in the decade, especially if Baltimore continues to lose population.

Between all three entries here, there will be no change in the Senate and the Democrats will likely take Maryland’s 6th District, which is unfortunate. Still, I expect Bartlett to make a concerted stand against Garagiola and it should be close. If he loses, he is not going down without a fight. Plus, all the electoral votes from this area go to Obama.

Running totals thus far:
Obama with 233 votes to 223 for the GOP
Net gain of 2 Governors;
Net gain of 4 Senate seats;
Net loss of 7 House seats.

Next: Virginia

Obama, Jim Messina, David Axelrod and David Plouffe are feeling pretty smug about the upcoming Presidential Election of 2012. Obama’s ratings have crept up a little and they’re pretty confident that they have just bagged a second term for Obama. But, there are some major glitches in their assumptions.

The truth is Obama is running on empty when it comes to a solid campaign agenda. His 2012 campaign is just a repeat of 2008; Obama and gang are hanging their hats on one thing only (the money in his war chest.) They believe American can be bought if the price is right and they’re betting that the lazy stupid Americans are dumb enough to buy a “pig in a poke,” which is all Obama is selling again this year.

But this isn’t 2008 and America as we know it has eroded and digressed under the Obama Administration. Jobs created under Obama’s watch remain at “O” or zilch. Consumer confidence is at an all – time low. Unemployment is increasing, not decreasing. The National Deficit is increasing $3.98 billion per day and our credit rating is at risk again.

Obama has created turmoil in the Middle East supporting the Muslim Brotherhood, which puts America at a much greater risk of terrorist attacks on our turf. He supports the Wall Street Protestors who continue raping, maiming, destroying property and creating havoc in our States.

EPA is running around foot loose and fancy free restricting any chance of business growth. Obama and EPA are the ones who stopped the Keystone Pipeline. Obama and EPA stopped drilling on our Eastern coasts so he could invest our money with George Soros and drill in Brazil, not in America. Obama and EPA have ruthlessly attacked our businesses (Big and small.)

Obama and his team have a selective memory; they forgot to tell you three very important things.

1. When they were oohing and awing over the 8.3% unemployment rate, they forgot to tell you that Americans who were working temporary or part time jobs were counted. They conveniently forgot to tell you that 1.1 million of our workforce wasn’t counted in January 2012. This information is on the Bureau of Labor website – it’s factual and proven. Check it out – don’t take my word for it.

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

2. They forgot to tell Americans that hundreds of businesses are going to be laying off employees in 2012. They forgot to tell you that the Obama Administration is responsible for the lay- offs. They forgot to mention the latest CBO (Congressional Budget Office) report just released.

The CBO report is projecting that the federal government’s budget deficit will exceed $1 trillion for the fourth year in a row. The CBO says the national debt is on pace to grow to unsustainable levels in the years ahead. Folks, the CBO says if our Government continues their spending spree we won’t be able to keep afloat. Four more years of Barack Obama and our Nation will no longer be the land of the free or America the beautiful. China is laughing all the way to the bank while Obama keeps redistributing and spending money that we don’t have…

3. They forgot to tell you that the great jobs creator (Jeffrey Immelt) CEO of General Electric and the Obama Administration are stealing jobs from Americans. GE is moving their X-ray division from Waukesha, Wis. to China. It is estimated that GE will invest about 2 billion with China in this venture.

Did they remember to tell you that GE decreased its U.S.-based employees by 18,000 in 2009, according to the company’s 2009 annual report and Obama gave GE 24.9 million dollars of our stimulus money. General Electric is one of the companies who avoided paying taxes to our Country via various tax loopholes.

So, the only questions Americans need to answer today is this: “Are you better off now, than you were in 2009?” “Are your children and grandchildren better off now than they were in 2009?” “Are you going to leave a legacy to your children, grandchildren and future generations that they can wrap their arms around with pride?”

The high approval rating of Obama’s at this time verifies his statement, “That Americans are Stupid.” It signifies that 50% will sell their souls and their children’s’ souls to the devil if the price is right.

May God Bless America
As Always,
Little Tboca

New Jersey is my home state and I consider it the California of the east coast, but things are looking up. In 2012, the political news will be a mixed bag of news and results. On the presidential front, Obama won this state in 2008 with 57% of the vote. In fact, the state has not voted for a Republican presidential candidate since 1988. Hell, we haven’t had a Republican Senator since the 1970s. Generally, Democratic presidential candidates carry somewhere between 53% and 57% of the vote. That sounds about right for 2012, although one would venture it will be at the lower end of the range. However, New Jersey has one less electoral vote this year. While Obama’s job approval nationally hovers around the 44% mark, in New Jersey it stands at 51.3%. That is safe enough territory to give their 14 electoral votes to Obama.

Incumbent Democratic Senator Robert Menendez is up for reelection. Originally appointed to fulfill the term of Jon Corzine when he became one of the most disastrous Governors in New Jersey history, he won a full term in 2006 with 53% of the vote against Tom Kean, Jr., the son of the former Governor. In early 2011, Menendez had a job approval rating of 44%, but by early 2012, it stands in the mid 30s. Sensing vulnerabilities, the GOP has been hard pressed to find a viable candidate to take him on in 2012. But first, he will actually face a primary challenge from Gwen Diakos, a defense contractor, who until recently was a registered Republican. She is a political novice going up against a well-funded ($10 million and counting) opponent. Additionally, in his tenure as head of the DSCC, he is credited with keeping the Senate in the hands of the Democrats in 2010 despite the political mood at the time. Many other incumbent Senators who successfully defended their seats attribute that success to Menendez and have promised their financial support.

Thus far, only state senator and Christie ally Joseph Kryillos has declared his candidacy for the GOP and this sets up a little intrigue and subplot in the election. There is not exactly good blood between Menendez and Christie and Kryillos is a Christie friend and ally. As US Attorney in New Jersey, Christie initiated an investigation into some questionable practices and activities by Menendez. Although no indictments have been returned, the investigation remains active. Democrats claim the whole thing is politically motivated. At the time, it was alleged that Christie was on the Alberto Gonzalez “hit list” of US Attorneys. Suddenly, his name came off the list after the investigation against Menendez was initiated. Welcome to New Jersey politics.

Should Kryillos emerge the winner from the primary, it would be a well-funded Democrat against a Christie ally- a surrogate Christie, if you will. Polling at this point puts Kryillos about 12 points down. There are other names being mentioned and with a June primary, there is plenty of time for decisions to be made. State senator Mike Doherty has been mentioned and would appeal to the more conservative/Tea Party factions of the party. However, out of deference to Christie and GOP unity, he opted against a primary challenge, and this only enhances his chances for a run, possibly against Lautenberg should he decide to run again. Tom Kean, Jr. might present a better challenge this time around. Not short on money, the Kean name in New Jersey is akin to the Kennedy name in Massachusetts. The knock on Kean is that he is a less than energetic campaigner and personality. Hypothetical polling puts him down by 5 points to Menendez, but that may be attributable to name recognition.

There are two other names out there that bear mentioning. One is Anna Little, the Tinton Falls resident, who threw a scrare into Frank Pallone in the 2010 6th District race losing by only 16,000 votes. In fact, she managed to carry Pallone’s home Monmouth County after aligning herself with the Tea Party. The other name is former CNN anchor Lou Dobbs who has been making some political noise. He certainly has the name recognition and star quality. One scenario has Dobbs running as an independent, but that would likely steal votes from any GOP candidate and allow Menendez to win with a plurality.

With the current congressional delegation 7-6 in favor of the Democrats, the state loses a seat in the House in 2013. Prior to 2010, the delegation count was 8-5. The state has a bipartisan redistricting commission and when the final map was released and approved in December, it became quickly obvious that the Republicans had gained an advantage. With no incumbents announcing any intention to retire, it was obvious that an incumbent-incumbent race was inevitable somewhere. And since population growth in the northern part of the state was in decline or stagnating, obviously any changes would occur there. Once this was done, all the pieces fell into place.

Of the twelve new districts, five have absolutely no interest- the 1st, 2nd, 8th, 10th, and 12th- three Democrats and two Republicans. Originally the most vulnerable Republican was freshman John Runyan in the 3rd District. However, his district became more favorable to the GOP when rural areas of Burlington County were added and Democratic Cherry Hill was removed. Although not likely out of the woods yet, he became a little safer. Likewise, Chris Smith, another Republican, was made safer when his main opponent was drawn out of his area.

In the 6th District, Frank Pallone appears safe and even safer if Little opts for a Senate run, although she has also expressed interest in another run at Pallone. Leonard Lance, the Republican in the 7th District, originally faced a couple of serious challengers, but both are now out for different reasons. Jun Choi was drawn out of the district while Ed Potosnak, who faced off against and lost to Lance in 2010, withdrew to accept a job with the New Jersey League of Conservation Voters. I mention Rush Holt in the 12th District only because challenger Ed Beck, a South Brunswick businessman, has been gaining some ground and notice for the GOP. That leaves the 5th and 9th districts.

Steve Rothman, a Democrat, was drawn into a potential contest against Republican incumbent Scott Garrett in the 5th District. Looking at that district, the territory clearly favors Garrett. The 5th stretches along the northern border with New York wrapping around to the Pennsylvania border to the west. It is considered New Jersey’s hinterlands- perfect Republican territory. When redistricted, it picked up some of Rothman’s territory, but not enough to alter its Republican nature. Rothman would be hard-pressed to win over voters in these areas. Instead, Rothman decided to run in the neighboring 9th District. Rothman’s home base of Teaneck has much more in common with the Hackensack-based 9th District held by Democrat Bill Pascrell. Of course, that sets up a Democratic primary between Pascrell and Rothman. That leaves Terry Duffy or Adam Gussan to run against Garrett in the 5th, and likely lose. Thus, the good news out of New Jersey for the GOP is a new delegation count of 6-6, a one seat Democratic loss.

In a sense, the Democratic belly aching illustrates their hypocrisy. Their main argument is that a 6-6 split is not truly representative of New Jersey’s blue status. However, it was a Democrat- Steve Rothman- who decided not to go head-to-head against a Republican when he had the chance. It is the Democratic Party that cannot field a viable candidate in the 2nd, 3rd, or 5th districts, nor in those central parts of the state, including Ocean County, a growing Republican bastion. It is the Democratic strongholds of the northern part of the state that have shown the greatest population losses over the decade. While it may be true that to win statewide all one need do is win six or seven northern counties, that is not true at the congressional district level. It proves that even sensible Democrats will flee from excessive taxation and regulation which have characterized New Jersey under successive Democratic administrations.

To conclude, Obama claims their 14 electoral votes while Menendez become the default choice as Senator. However, the Democrats lose a seat in the congressional delegation representing a one seat GOP gain.

Running totals thus far:
Obama with 217 electoral votes to 223 to the GOP;
net gain of 2 Governors;
net gain of 4 Senate seats;
net loss of 6 House seats.

Next: Delaware, Maryland and DC

Deeply blue Rhode Island saw just enough population growth to justify its two House seats. And in a state so small, there was some controversy in redistricting as David Cicillene’s 1st District was redrawn to his benefit. It shed some rural, marginally Republican areas for other areas south of Providence. The rationale was that Providence had to be split between two districts to receive adequate attention and influence in Washington. Whatever…

In 2008, Obama enjoyed a 28 point victory. Like most states, that margin will be smaller in 2012. But, 28 points is a lot of leeway to still win by a landslide. And he will take their 4 electoral votes,

There is a Senate race as incumbent Democrat Sheldon Whitehouse is up for reelection. The only declared candidate for the GOP is Barry Hinckley who describes himself as a “liberty Republican” dedicated to individual liberty, limited government and free market economics. It sounds great but whether the message resonates in Rhode Island is another question. Thus far, he has spoken at several Tea Party events and like most New England Republicans, he is pro-choice. This could be an interesting race.

Whitehouse seeks reelection under not the best of circumstances. He “enjoys” dismal approval ratings in the area of 33%. For comparative purposes, Jack Reed, the senior Senator from the state, has approval ratings of 46%. He has proven himself a polarizing figure in the Senate. While Republicans were being vilified for calling Obama a “liar,” Whitehouse was invoking images of Aryan supremacy and Nazi tactics to describe opponents of Obamacare. He also managed to cash in some stock with great financial pay offs before the credit crunch of 2008 after sitting in on meetings with Bernanke and Paulson. He will likely win regardless, but if Hinckley can even make the race close, it could be a GOP victory since it would force Democrats to invest in a race they never thought would be a problem. Whitehouse does have $2 million in the bank. But, Hinckley must have struck a cord somewhere as he has raised $300,000 in a single quarter. This may be the sleeper race of 2012. Also, there is time for others to jump into the race. Two names mentioned are Scott Adevisian, the former mayor of Warwick, and John Robitaille, who almost won the Governor’s race in 2010.

In the 2nd District, incumbent Jim Langevin should have no trouble defeating Mike Riley. Instead, most of the interest will be in the 1st District which is why the legislature tried to shore up the area. Freshman incumbent David Cicillene is considered vulnerable. Should he win his primary, as expected, there are two qualified Republicans waiting to take him on.

Cicillene’s problems are many. First, he took over a seat held by Patrick Kennedy and had, in their minds, large shoes to fill. Second, he is a freshman Democrat in a Republican controlled House. Compare that with Kennedy who sat on the powerful Appropriations Committee. Third, he has shown a flair for a failure to keep staff. And fourth, although making assurances to the contrary, his successor in the mayor’s office was left with huge deficits to deal with after Cicillene left.

Two Republicans are lining up to take him on- former state representative John Loughlin and former head of the state police Brendan Doherty. Doherty has done a better job fund raising but is a political neophyte. Because the GOP primary is generally a low turnout affair, Doherty would have to attract some independents to defeat Loughlin. Loughlin, although losing in 2010, played very well in debates against Cicillene.

In Rhode Island, a presidential election draws more voters and since there are more Democrats than Republicans, there is a decided advantage for Cicillene. Although I believe the Senate race will be closer than expected, it should be a clean sweep for the Democrats.

Redistricting had little effect on the partisan make up of the congressional districts in Connecticut and they are all safely Democratic. John Larson should win the 1st while John Courtney will take the 2nd and Rosa DeLauro the 3rd. Jim Himes will face the winner of a crowded GOP field. This is the one seat where Republicans believe they have a chance every year since they held it until 2006. The 5th is being vacated by Chris Murphy who will run for the Senate. Chris Donovan, the speaker of the Connecticut House, looks to be the frontrunner although former state representative Elizabeth Etsy and Dan Roverti are well funded and in the mix. On the GOP side, it is a three person race: 2010 candidate Justin Bernier, Mike Clark and Lisa Wilson-Foley. This can be an interesting race, as most open ones are, and may prove competitive as the GOP tries to gain a toehold in the state.

With Joe Lieberman retiring, the seat is now open. In 2010, the race between Linda McMahon and Mike Blumenthal, despite heavy media attention and tons of money, was not particularly close in the end. Chris Murphy, long considered a possible Senate candidate, sees his turn now. However, it puts him on a collision course with the equally aggressive former secretary of state Susan Bysiewicz. That should make for some fireworks. Adding to the mix is state representative William Tong who maybe sees a chance to slip in while the other two battle it out.

The Republican primary will feature two heavyweights also. After losing his House seat in 2006, Chris Shays moved out of the state, but has since returned. He then announced his candidacy after meeting the requirements. He will face off against 2010 nominee Linda McMahon, she of WWF fame and the deep pockets. In hypothetical polling, if Bysiewicz prevails, she would defeat McMahon by about six points but lose to Shays by 6 points. A Murphy-Shays match up shows Murphy up by 5 points and Murphy up by 11 points over McMahon.

This is a great race featuring some political heavyweights in the state of Connecticut politics. However, both Shays and Murphy have positioned themselves sufficiently moderate enough to win over independent voters in the general election should they survive their primaries. Still, McMahon and her money- as 2010 proved- cannot be counted out. If nothing else, this is shaping up as one of those potentially close, expensive races that forces Democrats to spend where they never expected. However, I believe that in Connecticut Obama will have just enough of a coat tail effect to push Murphy over the finish line.

Running totals thus far:
Obama with 203 electoral votes to 223 for GOP nominee;
Net gain of 2 Governors;
Net gain of 4 Senate seats;
Net loss of 7 House seats.

Next: New Jersey