Is McCain surging or are pollsters tightening up their models to salvage some credibility? Either way, the MSM is desperately trying to supress Republican enthusiasm and smug elitist Beltway conservatives are eating their baloney. We must spread the truth and generate energy ourselves.
Monday polling is historically bad for Republicans. Much of the data is based on Saturday or Sunday, when working famililes and people of faith are less inclined to answer the phone. Polls based on weekend data tend to favor Democrats. That being said, the first four polls of Monday show McCain has:
- shaven 3 points off Rasmussen – Obama +5
- shaven 5 points off Zogby – Obama +5
- shaven 1 point off GW/Battleground – Obama +3
- shaven 3 points off biased Kos pollster Research USA – Obama +8
Word is the McCain internals had him down four over the weekend. If McCain can get it within a couple of points, and he has over a week to do so, McCain can win. The majority of the battleground states are states that Hillary whipped Obama despite polling. If the polling/election trends for the general mimic the polling/election trends for Democratic Primary, McCain wins Ohio, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania.
Keep the faith. Keep fighting. Spread the good news.
Dan McLaughlin
Moe Lane
Neil Stevens
Steve Maley
Thank,
pwest (Diary) Monday, October 27th at 9:16AM EST (link)Swamp! For some reason, McCain’s camp has always believed the election is won in the last 72 hours; let’s hope they are right.
Remember, gang, Turn out, Turn out, Turn out!
Pam
McCain will win
wiseprince (Diary) Monday, October 27th at 9:44AM EST (link)Not because the polls say so. Try your best to ignore them
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Actually the BG poll is the same as Friday
PaRep (Diary) Monday, October 27th at 9:48AM EST (link)but the 4 man race is 48 to 45
The polls again..
clove Monday, October 27th at 9:54AM EST (link)Well, for the left’s sake, they better hope McCain loses. Because, McCain did promise to go after everybody involved that used the economy, to disrupt society enough to do everything they possibly could to get a communist elected. That, would be better than x-mas and I can’t wait for the truth to be brougt out in front of the world. Left, your time is coming. I know the polls have been wrong from the get go, people are just not that dumb.
Rasmussen changes weighting in favor of Dems *again*
Finrod (Diary) Monday, October 27th at 9:55AM EST (link)It’s now 40.0 to 32.8, a half-point towards the Dems over last week.
Let’s get down to brass tacks here. How much for the ape?
Obama is up 5 in Ras, with a +7.2 affiliation advantage?
Dave_in_Fla (Diary) Monday, October 27th at 10:08AM EST (link)How does that bode well for Obama? Even if we get a 1996 election with Dem +4, that puts this race inside the MOE.
There has been a lot of chatter about how grim the McCain folks are because their internals show them down 4. I’ve got to wonder if their internal polling firm might be making some of the same party ID assumptions (not this bad of course). And they absolutely have to be getting the same unusually high refusal rate of the other firms, since no one would know they are being polled by an internal firm.
“If they were merely incompetent, then at least SOME of their actions would have been to the benefit of the country.” – Joe McCarthy
Dave,
pwest (Diary) Monday, October 27th at 10:52AM EST (link)4 is doable because of so many undecided. Bottom line guys, this election is about undecideds and Turn out, Turn out, Turn out!
We have to get our vote out, so turn off the polls and get to work. Turn off the TV; read Red State and listen to Rush, and VOTE!
Pam
There was a time when we thought Zogby polled accurately
nogyro35 (Diary) Monday, October 27th at 11:38AM EST (link)It was after CNN hired Zogby that their polling started predicting huge Democratic advantages, especially during the month prior to the 2004 election. Their models came closer to reality only in the last week, but were still way off.
I’m beginning to wonder about Rasmussen now that they are polling for Fox. Fox is usually fair and balanced, yet even the conservatives on the network seem readily swayed by politics in DC. I wonder if this subtle shift in Fox is being reflected in the change in demographics in Rasmussen.
They seemed to use more accurate models when they did not work for one of the major networks, just like Zogby.