I’m not saying that he’s necessarily right, but he’s at least attempting to apply some consistent methodology unlike the MSM polls and Gallup’s new model which are basically just pulled out of their…um…backside. So, based on that and his record in past elections, that’s the only poll outside of 4% that gives me pause.

As to the weightings of the other polls mentioned elsewhere in this thread, they’re at least within historical norms where party turnout has varied up to 4% one party over the other unlike the MSM polls which have ridiculous numbers like more Is than Rs and 14 point spreads and using Census data as their criteria. That’s why I view those 4 as more valid.

Look, most of these polls showing double digit leads for Obama are nothing but a joke and yet another way for the MSM to depress the right and buoy ‘the one’. But I bought into the whole ‘the polls are totally off’ meme in ’06 and woke up with a hangover.

So, my personal opinion is that McCain is about 3-5 behind right now, which is absolutely doable. In fact, if we can keep Jack Murtha and Joe Biden spouting off through their pie holes, I can see where McCain loses the popular vote, takes PA, and becomes Prez even if he loses NM & CO. (Thank you Founding Fathers for your wisdom in creating 50 different elections)

But when there isn’t a single poll showing our guy in the lead (just like in ’06), I don’t want us to become delusional in our own echo chambers.

We are behind….we can make it up… we must work harder. Send emails to undecided friends, donate to downticket candidates, put up yard signs, turn out, turn out, turn out.

They they gradually moved it up to

41D 38R & 18I

And today they went back to

41D 37R 18I

There is a reason we have polling. Its ironic that pollsters who conduct polling think they know how certain demographics are going to turn out. Part is a myth of Obama youths and blacks. But what about Palin and Women? There are a lot more women that balcks even if if she doesnt turn women like Obama turns blacks.

Phony D registrations by ACORN distorted the perception of increased D registrations. Same is true for Operation chaos. There are not as many Ds as pollsters think.

Why Rasmussen believes he’s has projected turnout nailed is beyond me. I don’t buy his poll, and he was not good during the primaries with regard to Obama. He consistely overstated his support. He’s doing it again. Big mistake in my book.

That’s why the RCP avg is such a joke. The only polls that I look at are Ras, IBD, Battleground & Hotline. They are showing an avg. of +4 Obama. The outlier there is Ras at 7 and since they have the most sophisticated method I know of for voter ID that’s the one that troubles me the most. The media driven polls, however, are a joke.