Polls are showing a wide spectrum of results, but some polls show McCain doing much better than others. For those that don’t know, the GW/Battleground poll was extremely accurate in 2004. The same is true for the IBD/TIPP. Not all polls are worthy of equal attention.
The GW/Battleground poll is not a push poll. There is no way for those conducting that poll to interject their preferences and influence the respondents. GW/Battleground does not prompt people by naming the candidates. They simply ask for the voters’ preference in a certain race. This eliminates bias. Second, they stick with a likely voter model, which time and again has proven to be more accurate than registered voter models. Despite this fact, major media outlets insist on using registered voter models. Finally, GW/Battleground does not conduct polling on weekends. It is widely accepted that working people with families and people of faith are less inclined to be responsive over the weekends. Therefore, polls that reflect weekend data often underestimate Republican support. Still, major media outlets consistently cite polls that use unstable weekend data.
I state this because Republicans are often accused of cherry picking polls that favor McCain. The GW/Battleground has McCain down by two points. For the reasons stated above, we cite this poll for good reason. (Note that the GW/Battleground is not the same as the Big Ten/Battleground.) Other, more scientific polls like IBD/TIPP show the race much closer as well. The traditional Gallup poll has McCain down four, but major media outlets insist on referencing their new unproven model to repeat the myth that McCain is down double digits. That is a MSM lie designed to suppress Republican enthusiasm. I cannot believe all the major media outlets that are running with these stories about McCain being down by double digits and Republicans bailing ship.
It is an outrageous lie. Its bogus. Don’t beleive the hype. This is an epic battle and with a strong finish and a strong GOTV effort, not only can John McCain win, he can win decisively.
- GW/Battleground – Obama +2
- AP – Obama +1
- IBD – Obama +1
- Real Gallup – Obama + 4
- Startegic Vision – leads in OH and FL
Don’t let the media get away with perpetuating its double digit lead lie.
Moe Lane
Steve Maley
Daniel Horowitz
Jake Walker
Victoria Coates
Exactly!
NDPhog (Diary) Friday, October 24th at 7:49AM EST (link)I don’t get the feeling here in SW Ohio that voter turnout will be repressed. That’s usually not a problem here, though. What we need to do is make sure McCain voters in Cleveland, Columbus and Toledo vote, even though they will be out-numbered. Every vote counts. We don’t do this by county, so margin of defeat is very important in losing counties (typically urban counties). That’s true in OH, VA, PA, and everywhere else.
Hey Swamp - ya mean like the CBS/NYT
eburke (Diary) Friday, October 24th at 8:13AM EST (link)poll that came out last night showing a 13 point BHO lead? Internals? Well, the original respondents came out approx. (I’m going on memory on this portion so I may be off a bit) 38 Dem 34 Pub and 28 I. They then ‘reweighted’ the poll to 41 D, 31 I, and 28 R. A 13 point advantage for Dems when there has NEVER been more than a +4 for either party.
That’s why the RCP avg is such a joke. The only polls that I look at are Ras, IBD, Battleground & Hotline. They are showing an avg. of +4 Obama. The outlier there is Ras at 7 and since they have the most sophisticated method I know of for voter ID that’s the one that troubles me the most. The media driven polls, however, are a joke.
“All that need be done for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing.”
Unified Patriots
Interesting...
Fallon (Diary) Friday, October 24th at 8:14AM EST (link)I volunteered to be sent to a battleground state for the last week of the election and am being sent to a small town in Wisconsin. This is a new office being set up. It appears that Wisconsin is still very much in play.
Rasmussen
bigfoot (Diary) Friday, October 24th at 9:02AM EST (link)Don’t wanna sound like a dead horse about the Rasmussen poll, but he’s weighs dems at nearly 7 points higher than repubs. If you change the weighing of dems to historical actual turnout, suddenly it’s a dead heat.
Why Rasmussen believes he’s has projected turnout nailed is beyond me. I don’t buy his poll, and he was not good during the primaries with regard to Obama. He consistely overstated his support. He’s doing it again. Big mistake in my book.
“To believe in nothing is to believe in everything. To believe in everything is to believe in nothing”
Obama, ACORN and Operation Chaos
Swamp_Yankee (Diary) Friday, October 24th at 9:10AM EST (link)Pollsters, I believe, mistakenly wiegh Democrat party affiliation.
There is a reason we have polling. Its ironic that pollsters who conduct polling think they know how certain demographics are going to turn out. Part is a myth of Obama youths and blacks. But what about Palin and Women? There are a lot more women that balcks even if if she doesnt turn women like Obama turns blacks.
Phony D registrations by ACORN distorted the perception of increased D registrations. Same is true for Operation chaos. There are not as many Ds as pollsters think.
Hotline Blows too
PaRep (Diary) Friday, October 24th at 9:12AM EST (link)they were weighting it 41 D 36R 18 I
They they gradually moved it up to
41D 38R & 18I
And today they went back to
41D 37R 18I
Battleground 3 point for Obama 48% to 45%
PaRep (Diary) Friday, October 24th at 9:17AM EST (link)http://www.tarrance.com/files/10.23-Public-tables.pdf
I will grant that Ras has not been as on this
eburke (Diary) Friday, October 24th at 9:54AM EST (link)election but his methodology for assessing the current makeup of the electorate is at least intellectually consistent. He has a separate bank of voters who are asked only what their party affiliation is (I believe it’s in the 25,000 range) and then does a rolling 3 month average.
I’m not saying that he’s necessarily right, but he’s at least attempting to apply some consistent methodology unlike the MSM polls and Gallup’s new model which are basically just pulled out of their…um…backside. So, based on that and his record in past elections, that’s the only poll outside of 4% that gives me pause.
As to the weightings of the other polls mentioned elsewhere in this thread, they’re at least within historical norms where party turnout has varied up to 4% one party over the other unlike the MSM polls which have ridiculous numbers like more Is than Rs and 14 point spreads and using Census data as their criteria. That’s why I view those 4 as more valid.
Look, most of these polls showing double digit leads for Obama are nothing but a joke and yet another way for the MSM to depress the right and buoy ‘the one’. But I bought into the whole ‘the polls are totally off’ meme in ’06 and woke up with a hangover.
So, my personal opinion is that McCain is about 3-5 behind right now, which is absolutely doable. In fact, if we can keep Jack Murtha and Joe Biden spouting off through their pie holes, I can see where McCain loses the popular vote, takes PA, and becomes Prez even if he loses NM & CO. (Thank you Founding Fathers for your wisdom in creating 50 different elections)
But when there isn’t a single poll showing our guy in the lead (just like in ’06), I don’t want us to become delusional in our own echo chambers.
We are behind….we can make it up… we must work harder. Send emails to undecided friends, donate to downticket candidates, put up yard signs, turn out, turn out, turn out.
“All that need be done for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing.”
Unified Patriots
?
Herodotus Friday, October 24th at 11:24AM EST (link)None of those combinations = 100%
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