ACORN and the Polls; Need Some Help, Math People and Poll People Stat


Read This and Let Me Know if I'm Crazy

Okay, please read this and let me know if I’m crazy:

It is being reported that Ohio Secretary of State Brunner has been concealing 200,000 unmatchable voter registrations. In just one Indiana County, ACORN submitted 5,000 new registrations. Every single one was tossed.

The ACORN numbers are growing and growing, state by state. The numbers are becoming staggering. I haven’t researched all the numbers, but ACORN claims to have registered well over a million people.

This is not news around here, but then something dawned upon me. All the 2008 polls are being weighted heavily towards the Democrats because of the increase in Democratic Party affiliation. This is being partly justified by the rapid rise in new Democratic voter registrations as compared to new Republican voter registrations. In other words, polls are sampling more Democrats than Republicans because more people have registered as Democrat than Republican.

All this begs the question, is this rise in Democratic registrations real? I suspect it is to a certain extent. I think this would be overreaching inquiry if the ACORN scandal was limited to one office here or 5,000 registrations there, but it is not. In Ohio alone there could be tens of thousands of fraudulent Democrat registrations.

How many fraudulent Democratic registrations will be scrubbed? How many fraudulent Democratic registrations will be no shows at the polls? Most importantly, have the phony Democratic registrations artificially altered polling samples.

When polls are conducted using party affiliation as reflected in the 2000 election or the 2008 election, the numbers are much, much, much closer. This could be big. I need help flushing out the numbers.


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6 Comments Leave a comment

S Y .Brilliant!! A Redstate EXCLUSIVE!

mikeleader (Diary) Wednesday, October 15th at 7:31PM EST (link)

I have to think Mc C might gain up to 2 pts in some swing states…GREAT ORIGINAL THINKING!!

mikeleader

 

Registration and voting

izoneguy (Diary) Wednesday, October 15th at 7:43PM EST (link)

so registration is one thing, voting another. Just because you register does not mean you will vote. Look for another tactic on election day. ACORN will try and swamp traditional republican
districts with a bunch of stooges. They will bus in hundreds and thousands of people and have them stand in lines and just
muck up the process. I think election officials have to get out ahead of this. One way would be to have a proof of residency in the precinct BEFORE you can get in line. Any election officials out there that would like to comment?

The point cannot be made often enough: Modern liberalism, as embodied in the Obama presidency, is the defender of the status quo. And the status quo is a road to economic ruin. Political forces cannot redistribute the wealth that the economic system does not produce.

I Was Talking About Polling

Swamp_Yankee (Diary) Wednesday, October 15th at 7:50PM EST (link)

Pollsters often adjust their responses according to pre-determined number of “Rs” and “Ds”. This is based on party affiliation, but if the party affiltions are bogus than so wouldnt the polling samples and then the polls themselvse.

 
 

Shall we import some purple paint from Baghdad?

Uma Richie (Diary) Wednesday, October 15th at 9:32PM EST (link)

Swamp Yankee, my fear is that the poll workers will vote for Obama on behalf of “Mickey Mouse” and other fraudulent ACORN registrants. This needs to be resolved before election day, or the GOP needs to find 100,000 ballot box babysitters (some at risk of life and limb) in the next three weeks.

 

Hard to know for sure, but...

conservativechick Thursday, October 16th at 3:54AM EST (link)

DJ Drummond over at Wizbang has some very good articles about polling and party weighting. For the record, the TIPP poll was the most accurate in the last election and they have McCain down by 3. I think generally Rasmussen and Zogby are pretty close now, but it’s all going to depend on turnout; other factors could be the PUMA’s and race, but I’m not sure they will be major factors. ACORN could end up being a big factor, but McCain has got to keep the race close. I do believe if he can keep it under 4/5 with Zogby in the battleground states he may be able to win. The internals today of Zogby showed that McCain has gained ground on independents in the past week. If McCain can inch up within 2 or 3 I think he will win. Zogby believes that in the weekend before the election the race will turn one way or another and will be an electoral landslide w/ a close popular vote. He also believes the longer “undecideds” remain “undecided” the more likely they will break for McCain, who they may not love, but are more comfortable with. Obama’s numbers for unprepared for the presidency largely remain unchanged since the summer (45%), and are only lower than Dukakis’ of modern elections. In his close races, GW Bush had unprepared numbers in the 30′s. We all know Obama has not closed well and has only won basically uncontested races or with trickery (ie. superdelegates). I think the electoral landslide could break either way and that McCain is certainly the underdog, but there are still many reasons to be optimistic. I definitely think you people on this blog should ban any negative ranting and get your butts to work. Have some courage to fight and inspire others. Stop the doom and gloom. It’s not helping anyone.

 

See Alinsky, think it is Rule 4.

Achance (Diary) Thursday, October 16th at 4:54AM EST (link)

“Make them live by their own rules.” Others have commented on this as well.

There’s no doubt that fraudulent registrations have skewed the D-R balance in polling towards the Ds. Now they have it set up for screaming about Republican voter fraud if they lose. “Selected not elected” redux.

In Vino Veritas