Just moments ago, the motion vote on the confirmation of Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court passed a critical procedural vote, cloture, by 51-49. Lisa Murkowski voted no, Democrat Joe Manchin voted yes.

This is how it shapes up for tomorrow.

The actual fight is over the votes of three senators: Collins, Murkowski, and Manchin. Jeff Flake gave his word, for whatever that’s worth, last week that he would vote to confirm Kavanaugh. In reality, it seems that Joe Manchin is a yes.

https://twitter.com/GlennKesslerWP/status/1048225836359475202

Susan Collins is giving a floor speech today at 3 p.m. where she will announce her vote:

NEWS: @SenatorCollins will announce how she plans to vote on Kavanaugh’s final confirmation during a 3pm Senate Floor Speech.

— Frank Thorp V (@frankthorp) October 5, 2018

There is no telling what Collins will do but my gut says she announces she is a yes vote. Regardless of her love of abortion, Collins has normally been a good soldier when it comes to party votes. She’s on record as saying that she’s satisfied that the right to kill babies is safe with Kavanaugh on the bench and, as Kavanaugh is an establishment figure rather than a Trump supporter, she’s unlikely to screw over her social circle or Mitch McConnell by voting against him. Again, I may be eating my words after 3 p.m. today but I think she’s a yes.

Given Murkowski’s vote on cloture, a lot of people are saying that she’s a no tomorrow. I’m not sure that’s the case. My read is that she’s a yes tomorrow. I think her cloture vote was a protest against the fact that the FBI background investigation was not unlimited in time and scope.

Murkowski, via @Gabriel_Pogrund, said she did not yet know if FBI had been thorough enough in its investigation or spoken to enough witnesses. “What would be helpful for me would be kind of a list of those interviews. We’re not done, we’re not done in there,” she told reporters

— Seung Min Kim (@seungminkim) October 4, 2018

And she also seems to be in agreement with Collins that the right to kill the unborn is safe with Kavanaugh on the bench:

Murkowski told me she concurs with Susan Collins’ view that Kavanaugh probably wouldn’t overturn Roe.

— Steven Dennis (@StevenTDennis) October 4, 2018

What makes me more convinced that this is the way it will play out is that Montana Senator Steve Daines will not be in Washington tomorrow. His daughter is getting married and he is walking her down the aisle.

Spokeswoman for @SteveDaines confirms that he will indeed be walking his daughter down the aisle on her wedding day on Saturday, won’t be present for a Kavanaugh confirmation vote if it happens then. 👰

— Seung Min Kim (@seungminkim) October 4, 2018

Just cast my vote for Judge Kavanaugh getting him one step closer onto #SCOTUS. We spoke last night, and I assured him, I will be back to vote YES this weekend if needed. Looking forward to calling Judge Kavanaugh, Justice Kavanaugh. pic.twitter.com/KzfdX2HIMc

— Steve Daines (@SteveDaines) October 5, 2018

I don’t think anyone wants Kavanaugh to go to the Supreme Court with Mike Pence casting the deciding vote. In particular, I don’t think Murkowski would want that. Likewise, I don’t think Collins and holding the vote open until Sunday so Daines can make it back to DC would have horrible optics for the GOP.

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