BREAKING: IOWA CALLED FOR MIKE HUCKABEE
By Erick Posted in 2008 — Comments (77) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
Fox News just called it for Huckabee.
Current Results with 25% reporting:
Huckabee 35
Romney 24
Thompson 14
McCain 12
Paul 11
Giuliani 4
[UPDATE:] Late breaking undecideds went 27% to Huck and 21% to Fred.
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BREAKING: IOWA CALLED FOR MIKE HUCKABEE 77 Comments (0 topical, 77 editorial, 0 hidden) Post a comment »
The Huckaboom surge continues.
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Molon Labe!
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"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777
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Underlying most arguments against the free market is a lack of belief in freedom itself. - Milton Friedman
goes on to win the nomination, and then is elected President!
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Considering where the good doctor's head was, when practicing medicine, is it any wonder that the man has issues?
Not actually true. Generally true, but not actually true.
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Underlying most arguments against the free market is a lack of belief in freedom itself. - Milton Friedman
He won Iowa in 1988.
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Considering where the good doctor's head was, when practicing medicine, is it any wonder that the man has issues?
because it's an all-star pundit party on CNN right now.
I understand statistics quite well. But what is this nonsense? How do you call it with so few precincts reporting?
Was pretty conclusive. Massive, unbelievable evangelical turnout. That makes Huckabee totally unbeatable... they would have to get that polling very wrong for him to lose. They could've called it with 0%.
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Underlying most arguments against the free market is a lack of belief in freedom itself. - Milton Friedman
Please, Hugh is already preparing a story about the huge Romney comeback. It's victory night in Hugh's alternate universe!
"The Constitution was made to guard the people against the dangers of good intentions."
CNN called it too
alas, i do not get Fox News
What a pathetic disappointment... Anybody but that goob.
"Don't ever be afraid to see what you see." ~Ronald Reagan
but I am happy that Fred Thompson is in third.
Freedom of Religion not Freedom from Religion
spoiler...
Freedom of Religion not Freedom from Religion
At this point in FL in 2000 we had a President AL Gore
"No compromise with the main purpose, no peace till victory, no pact with unrepentant wrong." - Winston Churchill
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Molon Labe!
Apparently they were out in force. Huckabee has them locked up solid.
So 60% of voters were evangelicals but Huckabee only got about 32% of the vote. So even if every Huck voter was an evangelical he is winning about half of them.
So much for that coalescing theory.
I'd call that locked up in a 5 man race. He has a 30 point advantage among evangelicals over Romney and Thompson.
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Underlying most arguments against the free market is a lack of belief in freedom itself. - Milton Friedman
When this is a 2-man race? If Thompson drops out first, is half still "locked up" when Romney is likely to have almost as many?
I don't deny he has a big advantage. But winning half of a voter group is not "a lock" - it is simply a big advantage.
And like I said, that assumes that every Huck voter is an evangelical - and I know there are stupid non-evangelicals who are voting for the man too. So I don't think the actual total evangelical vote for Huck is 50%.
Half the evangelicals (49%) said they were going to vote for Huckabee. The next closest was Romney/Thompson at about 20% each. So if that means that just about everybody who voted for Huckabee was an evangelical, it looks like that is the case. It's reasonable to think Huckabee would grab a big chunk of those remaining 50% if it were a 2 man race... of course, how much all depends who the 2nd man was.
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Underlying most arguments against the free market is a lack of belief in freedom itself. - Milton Friedman
I believe this is a significant bit of information. I'm gratified to see that a substantial part of the evangelical vote in Iowa could see past the one-dimensional nature of Huckabee and look at other factors. What will really be interesting is to see how this changes in the various states. I think it was a given that the evangelical vote in IA was significant, but what about NH? SC? And beyond?
The Unofficial RedState FAQ
“You are not only responsible for what you say, but also for what you do not say. ” - Martin Luther
It was their entrance poll data... not sure if they have that available online somewhere. The IA evangelical vote was beyond significant... 60% according to their entrance poll. That far exceeds their proportion of the population, meaning even though there are lots of evangelicals in Iowa, they were also greatly overrepresented at the caucus. It would be hard to duplicate that in very many states. I still have high hopes that Huckabee will go down in a ball of flames. Hopefully SC will be smart enough to see through his scam.
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Underlying most arguments against the free market is a lack of belief in freedom itself. - Milton Friedman q
to generate turnout. But 60%?? As you say - hard to duplicate.
The Unofficial RedState FAQ
“You are not only responsible for what you say, but also for what you do not say. ” - Martin Luther
61% of those under 30 with poor judgment. Wisdom comes with age...
The Unofficial RedState FAQ
“You are not only responsible for what you say, but also for what you do not say. ” - Martin Luther
Hopefully SC will be smart enough to see through his scam.
Don't get your hopes up. His social conservatism is no scam. Huck will likely win SC by double digits.
I wonder how much the Iowa Christians know about Huck. (I say this as a strong Christian who really wants people to do their homework before voting.)
I am an evangelical and a born-again Christian and I support Fred and I am not alone here
What's more, I NEVER supported Huckabee
Joanie
RV Wanna-be
Maddie the Wonderdog
"apackof2, coming to a town near you!"
It is of the LORD's mercies that we are not consumed, because his compassions fail not.
Lamentations 3:22
That is a huge generalization. The only evangelical born-again Christians I know (at least those that have shared their opinions with me) that vote for Huckabee are Arkansans.
"I'm just beginning...The pen's in my hand...Ending unplanned"
Yes. Thank goodness for the winter break. I might have gone crazy without it. I'm ready to go back to practicum, but I could do with another semester off from school. ;)
"I'm just beginning...The pen's in my hand...Ending unplanned"
" Got to love the Lord for making things like that."
Morally Compromised
"I'm just beginning...The pen's in my hand...Ending unplanned"
post here occasionally. Happy New Year!
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Considering where the good doctor's head was, when practicing medicine, is it any wonder that the man has issues?
We're both sitting here watching the caucus on our individual computers frantically typing. It's a good night. Happy New Year to you, too!
"I'm just beginning...The pen's in my hand...Ending unplanned"
That's what we're talking about. Huckabee has 4,220 (with 15% reporting).
On the Democrat side, something sounds funny - they're saying 28% of precincts in but the candidates only have about 160 votes each. What's the deal with the Donks and their reporting - or are there really that few Democrats at the caucuses?
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Underlying most arguments against the free market is a lack of belief in freedom itself. - Milton Friedman
they could probably get their stuff done faster. Just a guess.
see comment by theone below - dems are releasing an estimate of the number of delegates each candidate will receive at the state convention. cnn.com has this in their special notes section on their results page.
"oh our statistical models" bla bla. Explain it. You're calling this stuff with so few precincts reporting?
I don't understand the point of it. Why even have these votes, just let the media call it for us. Even FOX, wtf is going on here?
that Huckabee can find that success in New Hampshire or the big states. Nominating him would be the equivalent of the Democrats nominating Howard Dean in '04.
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According to Democrats, it’s greedy to want to keep your own money, but it’s “justice” to demand someone else’s.
--Jonah Goldberg
The dems don't report raw vote totals, just delegates to their state convention.
As I said here, there's alot of votes left to be counted but if Romney loses with only 24%, this has to be considered a disaster for him.
Are these numbers being reported in percentages? I hope so, because Fred just went from 17 to 14, so if we're talking absolute numbers, something's not adding up.
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I guess that would explain why Huck just went from 35 to 31.
Also looks like Fred is dropping to a tie with McCain. (Shudder.)
Fred is in a solid 3rd place, like he had to finish (looks like within 7 of Romney - not bad).
Looks like all that negative knifing in the back didnt help Romney after all.
He (Romney) had it coming and bad. Instead of trying to sell a vision, its been nothing more than identity politics of the worst type (Romney tries to identify with everyone and their brother).
I have said it once, I will say it again, there is a major disconnect between the party apperatus and the party roots. We know a phony when we see one. Romney is Phony.
My hope is for Romney to loses NH and for Fred can pick up his supporters and rock SC, etc.
Identity politics defined the Iowa race.
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"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777
Huckabee's appeal is NOTHING BUT identity politics.
Let's be real here.
But look on the bright side, seriously, most of us would rather elect Obama than Huckaby and we are conservatives. It's not like we still don't have a best worst case scenario.
Anyway, this is far from over. Too bad the networks again show themselves to be arrogant. At least explain your damn methodology, 15% reporting, doesn't that BEG for an explanation? WTH?!?
Remember in 2004 when Fox News was so proud about waiting a few extra minutes to call Florida in 2000? And then how they were touting their caution as they watched the '04 numbers come in?
I was surprised to see them jump so quick to call Iowa tonight.
McCain in Iowa seems so far to have failed. That is a good thing.
It is so obvious how bad they are shilling for his big "comeback".
McCain losing 4th helps Romney in NH.
Do you seriously expect them to spend 3 hours giving a basic statistics class to everyone? I think the combination of the raw vote reported total, county modeling, and the exit polls was more than sufficient at that point with such a large gap...
Nobody is asking for a 3 hour lesson. Fact is they spent less than 3 minutes, or maybe 3 seconds, to explain it.
And the only gap that was wide was the gap between precincts who reported and those that didn't.
Try not to insult my intelligence. I understand statistics and I understand how they can be manipulated.
I am watching via my laptop
CNNLive.com was the only live streaming I could find
Joanie
RV Wanna-be
Maddie the Wonderdog
"apackof2, coming to a town near you!"
It is of the LORD's mercies that we are not consumed, because his compassions fail not.
Lamentations 3:22
LOL, well then we can understand an 8% point gap in a 6 (viable) person race is enormous, particularly with no reason to think the other unreported precincts will come in substantially different.
You are suggesting that there's no reason to believe other precincts could be different. There is also no reason to think Huckaby could even win this to begin with.
Conventional wisdom is the basis of these models, they have no business being used with such a small number of precincts reporting.
They benefit nobody but the media even if they turn out to be right.
Chris asks Ed Rollins about Giuliani's "girlfriends" and Rollins goes on to suggest Rudy sent police cars out to pick up his women.
Then Chris starts to defend his pathetic self as Rollins rips him as being part of the press corpse elite.
Priceless. Wallace, you're a tool.
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Molon Labe!
jUst read the interview with him with a drink in his hand.
BTW Fox just called Obama to win 1st.
it certainly makes clear Huckabee's team's attitude towards the rest of us. They sound pretty snobby for somebody fighting against the elite.
That this is only with 25% of the vote and I doubtr if western Iowa which is Fred country has been counted
Bill Kristol just said B. Hussein Obama and Huck will be the nominees. Not sure what he's smokin. Juan Williams just said B. Hussein Obama will be the Dem. nominee "if he can win in a state that is 95 percent white (Iowa), he can't see states like SC, with large black populations voting for anyone else. Hmm, guess he's passing the cheeba with Bill? Oh, Mike Wallace is also saying Huckabee is the guy to beat. If I hear the word "change" one more time it's going to be deleted from my dictionary.
"Nec Aspera Terrent"
bene ambula et redambula
Contributor to The Minority Report
The whole Hussein thing is silly. I think he will be the nominee.
and I think the whole Evangelical-Mormony thing is silly. So why not include the fallacious doctrines, memory lapses and heresy of the opposition? Plus, I don't recall anyone asking what you thought. Oh yeah and that is his name isn't it?
"Nec Aspera Terrent"
bene ambula et redambula
Contributor to The Minority Report
Who did they hire to make the projection ? The Politico ?
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"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777