Arlen Specter vs Pat Toomey: A Reality Check


Arlen Specter, who is facing a threat from the right in next year’s primary, recently launched a preemptive strike against former Club for Growth president Pat Toomey with a television ad that attacks his likely opponent for ties his to Wall Street. A recent Quinnipiac poll found Specter trailing Toomey by 14 points among Republican primary voters, 41 percent to 27 percent. Toomey came within 17,000 votes of beating Specter in the 2004 Republican primary, and the state’s Republican Party has only gotten more conservative in the intervening two years. However, there is a problem.

On the one hand, a staunch conservative like Toomey should sound great to the Republican base; on the other hand his chances of winning a general election against a well-funded Democrat are questionable at best. There is a reason Specter has always been a centrist (some would say leftist) Republican- that is what Pennsylvania will vote for.

It is interesting to note how hard conservatives have pulled for Norm Coleman in Minnesota, who actually scores less conservative on the The Poole-Rosenthal Conservative Rankings than Specter does. Yet those same conservatives can’t wait to oust Specter. While I am the first to admit that he was on the wrong side of the stimulus bill with Snowe and Collins, I am not ready to hand Democrats another senate seat on principle. Specter does have more conservative credentials than any Democrat replacement would. To whit:

* He supports personal accounts for Social Security
* He voted for Alito and Roberts
* He was given a 65% by the NTU, which is a hell of a lot more than we’d get from a Democrat
* He voted to repeal the AMT
* He voted against raising the minimum wage
* He voted yes on building a fence across the Southern border
* He voted to reauthorize the Patriot Act
* He was given an 81% rating by the Christian Coalition in 2003
* He supports drilling in ANWR
* He voted for school vouchers in DC
* He voted against withdrawal from Iraq within 9 months in 2008

Is Arlen Specter my first choice to be a Republican Senator? No. But I do want the party to think long and hard about whether it can win with a more conservative candidate in a state that trends to the left.

For more center-right news and views see The Rockefeller Republican.



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12 Comments Leave a comment

I note that PA re-elected Santorum while Bush was losing the state in 2000.

Martin Knight (Diary) Wednesday, April 15th at 7:08PM EST (link)

That said; have you ever considered that PA may be turning blue precisely because of attitudes like yours …? It is entirely valid for Democrats to bluster that such-and-such Republican is “too conservative” to represent a particular state, but when other Republicans are adding their voices to the same chorus …?

The fact that whole of New England has no Republicans representing it in the House is as a result of Rockefeller Republicans stupidly following Democrats in declaring that conservatism was out of step with the region. They thought they were insulating themselves instead of also staining themselves with the same “too conservative” brush.

Here’s the reality check; if you want PA to start voting Red, perhaps the best approach would be to field candidates that do not act as if holding mainstream Republican views is akin to being a pedophile. Swing voters respond to confidence and strength of conviction – the Rockefeller Republican’s typical flustered attempts to distance himself from the rest of the GOP (i.e. “I’m not like those other Republicans – I’m a moderate! Reagan sucks!”) doesn’t portray either.

That is not why we lose PA

Aetius728 Wednesday, April 15th at 9:11PM EST (link)

Republicans lose PA because the every election that Democrats resort to economic populism and demagoguery.

I might sound like a broken record, but every election I see advertisements ripping Republicans for tax breaks for the rich, shipping good paying American jobs offshore, deregulating Wall Street and big business, etc. It is disgraceful, but effective.

Many independents and Democrats here are socially moderate to conservative, do not approve of welfare, support gun rights, believe that the government spends to much, and are honest, hardworking, patriotic Americans. They just are convinced that the Democrats are the party of the little guy.

All that being said, I am certainly not defending squishy, moderate Republicans.

 
 

You didn't have to actually tell us you were a Rockefeller Republican

E Pluribus Unum (Diary) Wednesday, April 15th at 7:19PM EST (link)

We could pretty much gather that. Your best defense of Arlen Sphincter is that he’s “better than a Democrat”.

Yeah well, we got a prime chance to upgrade. To render a “me too” to what Martin said, I would add that PA is only nominally blue. It ain’t frakking Massachussetts. A strong, articulate, fearless conservative can win there. The way Obama keeps jacking with the economy, all those little incentives for centrists to stay with his agenda in 2010 are drying up. It is a time to take back territory, not a time to retrench.

Kill the Terrorists
Protect the Borders
Punch the Hippies h/t IMAO

 

Party over principle, eh?

stang (Diary) Wednesday, April 15th at 7:35PM EST (link)

“I am not ready to hand Democrats another senate seat on principle.”

Another moderate Republican that stands for….nothing.

“It is easy to be tolerant of the principles of other people if you have none of your own.”

Herbert Samuel

“Whenever the legislators endeavor to take away and destroy the property of the people, or to reduce them to slavery under arbitrary power, they put themselves into a state of war with the people, who are thereupon absolved from any farther obedience, and are left to the common refuge which God hath provided for all men against force and violence.”

John Locke

 

Cornyn Supports Specter

steve_b25 (Diary) Wednesday, April 15th at 8:42PM EST (link)

Guess I am not the only one who reasons Specter as the best shot at holding PA. Sen. John Cornyn, chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, issued his firm support of Sen. Arlen Specter today.

“As I survey the political landscape of the upcoming 2010 elections, it’s clear we need more candidates that fit their states,” Cornyn wrote. “While I doubt Arlen could win an election in my home state of Texas, I am certain that I could not get elected in Pennsylvania. I believe that Senator Specter is our best bet to keep this Senate seat in the GOP column. A vote for Arlen Specter is a vote for denying Harry Reid and the Democrats a filibuster-proof Senate.”

We Don't Care (nt)

IJB Wednesday, April 15th at 8:47PM EST (link)
 

Yeah right-Specter sure didn't provide a

redware Wednesday, April 15th at 8:55PM EST (link)

filibuster-proof Senate on the Stimulus Bill,did he?

Oops-should have reversed the didn't and the did

redware Wednesday, April 15th at 10:05PM EST (link)

Guess I was still too revved up from the Tea Party!

 
 
 

Thanks for playing the "why Specter should be re-elected"...you lose!

JadedByPolitics (Diary) Wednesday, April 15th at 9:47PM EST (link)

I personally will be donating 3/4 ths of my donations to Toomey to WIPE OUT that PIG of man Specter. He makes a great liberal and should just call himself such. It is literally the lying about one’s party id that kills me. Republicans are not and should not be in the habit of helping any President SPEND billions on a lie called “stimulas”. GOOD BYE Specter what a waste of the Republican Brand!

 

There would be a huge benefit in having Toomey run and lose in the general election

David123 (Diary) Wednesday, April 15th at 10:12PM EST (link)

It would make an example for all the other politicians who are primarily motivated by getting re-elected instead of standing for conservative principles.

I would say that America is better served by having 42 Senators with principaled conservative stands and spines than 52 Republican squishes. Having Toomey ensure that Specter will not be re-elected should help ensure that other Republicans grow spines and follow conservative principles better.

And, as Martin pointed out, Rick Santorum, a solid principled conservative has won Senate races in Pennsylvania TWICE. So Toomey may well have an excellent chance of winning the general election. If Santorum can do it, so can Toomey [or maybe Santorum could be the nominee].

David123

 

Specter can go directly to hell.

mbecker908 (Diary) Wednesday, April 15th at 10:39PM EST (link)

And you can go with him.

I want to make a special note here that I have no particular problem with the ME girls, I’m even willing to send them money. The only money I’d ever spend on Specter would be for flowers.

 

I'd rather have a dem than Specter.

Return to Revolution (Diary) Wednesday, April 15th at 11:11PM EST (link)

As a PA voter, I’m aware of the reality that PA is a blue state and as of the last election, appears to have gotten more blue. That said, nothing is worse than having a Republican so consistently go against his base. Specter made the stimulus bill possible – one less vote and it wouldn’t have passed. Watching him support such a horrible monstrosity was too much for me.

If he wins the primary I will not vote for him. I’d rather have a democrat.

Out of hand Constitutional fetishist