Another Homework Deficiency – Russia Sees Obama’s Nuclear-Free Offer As…. A Threat


Homework? Too cool for school....

I don’t know about you, but for my entire life whenever I’ve heard someone prattle about “a world without nuclear weapons,” I roll my eyes for at least two reasons. One is the naivete; the other is the practical notion that in such a world, one “kook-with-nuke” would be king.

But it turns out that in Moscow, the Russian leadership sees the Obama offer as something else – yet another move in the game of trying to rein in Russian influence in the world.

In other words, the Kremlin sees this plan as a threat.

Wasn’t the Obama-Medvedev chumminess supposed to reflect a “reset” (?!) of the U.S-Russia relationship? What’s going on here?

More below the fold….

In today’s The Moscow Times, Russian journalist Alexander Golts has a rather pleading (and interesting) column trying to point out to the Russian leadership that Russia faces a real threat – not the phantom threat of NATO, but the real threat of North Korea and its missile program. (And as this distance calculator indicates, the direct flight distance from Pyongyang to Moscow is just a hair longer than that from Pyongyang to…. Anchorage.

But down near the end of the column is this striking penultimate paragraph:

Because Russia’s conventional forces are so weak, the Kremlin relies heavily on its nuclear arms for national security. The country’s nuclear arsenal is the only military component that gives it weight in dealing with the United States and China. This is precisely why Russia’s military strategists see Obama’s call for a decrease in nuclear weapons as another attempt to decrease Moscow’s influence. They fear that once Russia’s nuclear arsenal becomes equal to that of China, Britain and France, Moscow will end up on the sidelines of global affairs.

(Emphasis mine.)

Now that’s interesting. Russia’s non-nuclear military forces have been in terrible shape (in terms of both equipment and personnel) for some time. As I’ve noted in these pages for at least a couple of years, until recently the only country upon which Russia has been able to exercise its will is tiny, impoverished Moldova (with regard to the Transdniestr region). Last August, Russia was able to run wild against Georgia – but only because the Georgian military is still poorly-equipped in comparison.

The only piece of the old Russian “big stick” that is still in reasonable shape is the nuclear arsenal; that’s the ultimate guarantor of Russia’s international status (particularly in Kremlin eyes).

Looks like another White House homework assignment wasn’t done….


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5 Comments Leave a comment

Niave, at best.

Steph C (Diary) Monday, April 6th at 10:08PM EST (link)

On Obama’s part, that is, made more apparent by the Russian response to it. I doubt that was Obama’s aim but I can understand that response from our former cold war enemies.

No, I’m afraid that, for good or ill, Pandora’s box opened and let out nuclear weapons of mass destruction. There’s no putting it back now.

“[I]f the public are bound to yield obedience to laws to which they cannot give their approbation, they are slaves to those who make such laws and enforce them.” –Candidus in the Boston Gazette, 1772
Hillbilly Politics

 

The Left

DerKrieger (Diary) Monday, April 6th at 11:32PM EST (link)

..will never understand human nature. I think that is one of their major flaws. They want to believe, and thus expect it to be so, that all our enemies are really nice, peace loving folk who, if not for the mean ol’ USA, would disarm and join hands in a rousing chorus of kumbaya.
Outside the West the masculine approach to diplomacy and war still dominate the affairs of governments and this is reflected in their testing of Obama, and Carter before him, for signs of weakness. When that weakness is found they find strength in it for themselves and contempt for the weak.
Outside the West it is strength that is feared and respected and that is something Ronald Reagan understood like no president since.
I believe Obama’s ineptitude, inexperience, naivete, and Liberal belief system will get us into a war. Not one of our making but one we will be dragged into or have foisted upon us.

And regarding Russia I believe that one day China will move to seize eastern Russia for its mineral wealth and unless Russia is willing to risk all out nuclear war for barely populated territory they won’t put up a fight. With their population in rapid decline they soon won’t have enough men to put into battle.

“In questions of power, let no more be heard of confidence in man, but bind him down from mischief by the chains of the Constitution.” – Thomas Jefferson

“I cannot undertake to lay my finger on that article of the Constitution which granted a right to Congress of expending, on objects of benevolence, the money of their constituents.” – James Madison

Whenever the legislators endeavor to take away and destroy the property of the people, or to reduce them to slavery under arbitrary power, they put themselves into a state of war with the people, who are thereupon absolved from any further obedience.” — John Locke, 1690

China Demographics

Skanderbeg (Diary) Tuesday, April 7th at 8:53AM EST (link)

Well, I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again.

The notion that China is going to seize a vacating Siberia just doesn’t hold water – because China is poised (by 2015) to go into a demographic implosion of its own.

One of the big “sleeper” geopolitical issues for mid-century could be a vacant Siberia with no one to take it….

 
 

Ronald Reagan said it best

robmikpet (Diary) Monday, April 6th at 11:53PM EST (link)

America will never be attacked because it is too strong. Nukes forever!

 

In view of North Korea and Iran, this make less sense

Marcus_Traianus (Diary) Tuesday, April 7th at 8:15AM EST (link)

To understand leftists, one must prioritize thoughts according to ideology. In that respect, it is not hard to understand what motivates them or how they will react in various circumstances.

Mr. Obama and his acolytes aspire to a one dimensional global society which is attuned to their beliefs. They believe others are driven by, what they see as, flawed motivation. In that regard, Obama believes, dangerously, that reducing the Russian nuclear arsenal or wrenching other related demands will have a deleterious affect on nations aspiring to possess nuclear weapons. He also foolishly believes this offer represents some type of goodwill underwritten by his global cult of personality. Nothing, and I mean nothing, could be more dangerous or naïve. The Russians still bare the scars of past encounters with such cultists and will not be fooled or dismissed so easily. Such actions only multiply the threats for many reasons.

With respect directly to Russia, this foolishness fails to consider not only what you have noted here, but also the complexity and long historical nature of our nuclear relationship. It is history built on a cautious, balanced game of “cat and mouse” whereby all factors (economic, holistic military and political) require consideration. It can therefore not be positively affected by overtures rooted in ideological beliefs because it is much more multi dimensional in nature. To not consider potential reactions based on all factors not only loses Obama any respect they may have yielded, but makes him more dangerous to the Russians. This places us all in jeopardy directly and indirectly from Russian surrogates such as North Korea and Iran. Let’s not forget those latter nations provide another dimension and thereby additional complexity to our overall nuclear threat. Obama has shown weakness with respect to both countries nuclear weapons aspirations. The overtures to Iran are only regarded as a further sign of weakness and further proof of an unwillingness to act in the face of defiance. This is not a situation which can be addressed with flowery oratory intended to beguile and impress nations as if they object of some suitor. Nor can it be affected with superficial opines appealing to organization such as the UN whom North Korea already knows are toothless and ineffective. Both those misguided actions forestall the advance of sensible policy, proactive security measures and other counteractions which remediate the threat and have proven successful deterrents in the past.

In one fell swoop Mr. Obama has made this a much more dangerous world by telling the Russians he wants to further reduce their influence, letting Iran know they can continue weapons development unabated or subject to any material consequence and showing North Korea the emperors has no clothes or fortitude to put them on.

“Both of our political parties, at least the honest portion of them, agree conscientiously in the same object—the public good; but they differ essentially in what they deem the means of promoting that good. One side believes it best done by one composition of the governing powers; the other, by a different one. One fears most the ignorance of the people; the other, the selfishness of rulers independent of them. Which is right, time and experience will prove.”.Thomas Jefferson