Maybe, maybe not.

You’d be surprised how large, particularly given the circumstances, Israel’s own “surrender lobby” is.

But agree with the comment above that a comparison with 2004 results would instructive.

That’s indeed the emerging scenario – small shifts in this matter will lead to large changes in outcomes.

I wouldn’t expect a huge change among Jewish-American voters, but even a small shift will have seismic consequences. And even though they’re in Israel, for a full one-quarter of self-identified Democrats to cross over to vote for John McCain is pretty eye-popping.

Since I’m sitting in my office with a few stalled minutes as I wait for a journalist to call me for an interview (not about politics – about business), let me tell you an instructive story.

Several years back, in your humble correspondent’s (very blue) home state, there was a very interesting race for Lieutenant Governor. The sitting (Democratic) Lt. Governor moved up to run for the open Governor’s office, and the longest-serving Democratic state senator moved up to run for the now-open Lt. Governor’s slot. It was a three-way race between him, a virtually-unknown Republican, and a far-left candidate. Despite the presence of the far-left candidate on the ballot, the veteran Dem was very heavily favored to win and had a huge lead in the polls. Barring an “October surprise,” he seemed to be a shoe-in.

Well, funny thing happened – he went and made his own October surprise.

He was one of those annoying rich-by-trust-fund liberals who resolutely blocked school choice while sending his own three children to fancy private schools.

So in October, he goes off to some political conference and leaves the family at home. There was some occasion in the family (I forget what), so someone on his staff arranged a little surprise for him – they secretly flew his wife out to the conference and spirited her up to his hotel room for her surprise entry.

Well, you might be guessing about where this is going. They wafted her into the room, and found him with a young lady who was some sort of staffer (maybe a secretary – I forget) – and let’s just say that they weren’t playing chess or discussing medieval English literature.

To her credit (and given the behavior of the uxes Clinton and Spitzer), she stomped out in a rage and immediately filed for divorce and custody of the three children.

Despite this fiasco, this only made a slight dent in his polling numbers – as we all learned from the Clinton years, leftists are willing to forgive any personal behavioral indiscretions if that’s required to allow them to hold on to power. Going into election day, he was still projected to win in a walk.

Well, a funny thing happened on election night – the race was indeed “a walk,” but it was a walk for the unknown Republican candidate. Votes had clearly moved in droves to both the Republican and the third-party guy.

The exit polling found that the reason for this unexpected result was a change at the polling station among women. The exit pollsters noted this, and recorded a large number of comments along the lines of, “I went to the polling station with the intent of voting for him, but when I got in the booth and looked at the ballot, I just couldn’t bring myself to check the box next to his name, knowing what he had done to his wife.”

One suspects that many Jewish American voters (and others) will find themselves feeling similarly next Tuesday….

this election has both parties crossing lines and telling the world why their doing it. So each thinks the party has left them. so who’s right?

Obviously, Barack Obama was not running in 2004. But comparing the returns for Bush vs. Kerry in 2004 with McCain vs. Obama now would be instructive as to how things are working out so far in this election; as even the original poster acknowledges.

My sincerest apologies, however, if you meant your reply to be a joke.

I’ve been saying for a while that an Obama victory would assure an Israeli strike on Iran before Bush’s term expires. This would force Obama to deal with the Bush policy, whatever it is, of how to support Israel in its maneuvers. In such a scenario, Israel will not wait for Obama.

If McCain wins (PLEASE!), then Israel will hold off in an attempt to gain White House support for whatever they want to do with/to Iran.

If we elect Obama we get a crisis …

And it probably won’t be a crisis caused by a relatively cautious grown-up like Kruschev was, so things can spin out of control real bad, real fast, with a lot of death and suffering.

Vote

McCain/Palin