South Ossetia – Some Semi-Invited Thoughts


Old History Collides With New Troubles

One of our Directors pinged me on Friday about penning some thoughts on the South Ossetia situation – due to my considerable (and ongoing) eastern European business experience, including one visit (two years ago) to the Caucasus region. I can’t claim any insider knowledge, but having seen quite a bit, I’ll just note that contrary to Francis Fukuyama’s expectations, history is once again asserting itself.

In the interest of brevity, I’ll just mention three things….

1. Ottoman Hangover. Three of the world’s biggest trouble spots in recent years have been the Middle East, the Balkans, and the Caucasus. It never seems to be noted that all three of these regions have one thing in common – they were all edge-regions of the Ottoman Empire. Particularly in its latter couple of centuries, the Ottoman Empire was beyond being a complete mess – it was a crazy quilt of local autonomies of various incoherent sorts. Think a kindergarten with no teachers and you’ll probably get the idea; after a few centuries of this sort of thing, it’s no surprise that chaos is the normal order of business even to this day.

2. Too many “ethnicities” in too little space. The fission of “Yugoslavia” (which may not be finished yet) is a good example of this. In the Caucasus, the present border between Russia and the Caucasian states is defined by the crest of the Caucasus Mountains; to the south of the crest, the nation-states are now defined by the old (imposed) “SSR” boundaries – giving us Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan. But the number of (at least claimed) ethnicities is much larger. “Ossetia” straddles the range, while there are fragments on both sides. This is probably an intractable problem – on BOTH sides of the crest. Russian trouble-making in the South Caucasus could boomerang into the (Russian-controlled) North Caucasus.

3. The “nation-state” system is in deep trouble. This problem is evident in this crisis, and it may be the most important problem we face today – one that supersedes even “Islamic terrorism” since they’ve been so effective at exploiting this problem to get it to swing both ways for them. The present (very effective) system dates to the Treaty of Westphalia in 1648 – with a chief benefit being that “nation-states” were given privileges, but also responsibilities. Basically, when there was a problem somewhere, you knew who to go to. That’s obviously a problem in the South Caucasus; both South Ossetia and Abkhazia are “holes in the map” – supposedly in the territory of one state (Georgia) but actually not under the control of any recognized state. When you get murk like this, with no real effective responsibility, all sorts of weeds grow – for example, apparently one of South Ossetia’s largest contemporary “industries” is the production of counterfeit $100 bills. The Transdneistr (a non-part part of Moldova) is another hole in the map that has become a center for uncontrollable murky activities. And for the time being we need not discuss the Hezbollah non-part of Lebanon, or the Waziristan non-part part of Pakistan. But you get the drift – the situation with these vaporous non-entity entities will have to be resolved soon, or the entire international system will collapse catastrophically.


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pilgrim recommends

pilgrim (Diary) Sunday, August 10th at 11:03AM EST (link)

Thanks for sharing your thoughts in a historical point of view. You have echoed my thoughts about how the possibilities exist for a boomerang effect of separatists creating problems for Russia in North Ossetia.

I just finished reading a book by Winston Churchill about the UK battling the Islamic forces in the Sudan. Just change the country UK to USA and the enemy Mahdi to Bin Laden, and it is the same story.


Activists Taking Action: Unified Patriots

 

Thanks for sharing your knowledge and take on this, Skanderbeg.

janis (Diary) Sunday, August 10th at 11:23AM EST (link)

While reading your summary, I was thinking “just like Pakistan and Waziristan” when I came to your remark saying the same thing. In my own mind, I think of these areas as being like “no go” areas in large cities where even the cops don’t have a grip on things.

As you said, if areas such as these don’t get resolved, we’re all in for a world of hurt. While the no-go areas in a major American city present a problem for a limited area, these international trouble cells may be the enablers of world-wide terror attacks, such as Afghanistan under the Taliban.

Surely Obama will fix the Waziristan problem in 20 minutes, right? nt

streetwise (Diary) Sunday, August 10th at 11:30AM EST (link)
 

The irredenta of empires

Achance (Diary) Sunday, August 10th at 11:54AM EST (link)

have caused most of the troubles of the last century and promise more of the same for this century. The one good thing about the old Soviet Union was that its brute force kept the …stans and all the other disparate provinces in their sphere in check. We didn’t have to deal with it there but had a full plate with the irredenta of the British, Dutch, and French Empires and plenty of Soviet mischief-making therein.

In Vino Veritas

Given The One's miraculous credentials,

janis (Diary) Sunday, August 10th at 12:01PM EST (link)

I expect that 20 minutes would be considered insulting to his powers. Try 2 minutes, right after the stopping the oceans from rising thingy.

 
 

Okay, I have to quibble with #3

JKH1232 (Diary) Sunday, August 10th at 12:02PM EST (link)

By your definition of things, the entire Nation-State system has been in trouble since Westphalia. THere have always been holes in the N-S system, places that were always disputed or odd. In fact, by weakening the Holy Roman Empire, Westphalia created a whole number of German principalities that, today, we’d think in this way- right dead in the middle of Europe.

Worldwide, these sorts of “Dead Zones” have been part of the game for a good long while- just ask Afghanistan and all the wars that occured there in the 19th Century. In fact, the only time when you didn’t have this issue was the age of High Imperialism, at least on paper. As it turns out- yeah, lots of dead zones in Imperial Authority, too.

In fact, I’d argue that, really Westphalia created this situation. It’s just part and parcel of the Westphalian agreements- we’re going to have them, we’re going to dispute over them. It’s fashionable to say Westphalia’s failing, but, really, I find such arguements lack historical perspective. Basically, by most evidence, Westphalia’s been failing since 1648. And it shows all the signs of continuing to be in the process of failing for a long, long time.

 

Gc is working on a major nation-state column

Mike gamecock DeVine (Diary) Sunday, August 10th at 8:38PM EST (link)

and has for weeks. You will be a major cite!

great column man

Mike DeVine’s Examiner.com, Charlotte Observer and The Minority Report columns
“One man with courage makes a majority.” – Andrew Jackson

 

gc highly recommends - nt

Mike gamecock DeVine (Diary) Sunday, August 10th at 8:43PM EST (link)

nt

Mike DeVine’s Examiner.com, Charlotte Observer and The Minority Report columns
“One man with courage makes a majority.” – Andrew Jackson

Nation-States

Skanderbeg (Diary) Sunday, August 10th at 9:50PM EST (link)

Fair points, but be careful about making the perfect the enemy of the good.

The problem we face now is that the nation-state system has worked pretty well for a few hundred years (certainly well compared to alternatives), but it is being challenged by various unsavory players.

Iran is a real nation-state, but it is continually demanding the right to game the system – wanting the privileges when it’s to its advantage but wanting immunity from the responsibilities when it feels that suits its needs.

Hezbollah is running a state-within-a-state in Lebanon that similarly has all the privileges of a nation-state but none of the responsibilities (or accountabilities).

Then of course various non-state terror groups are demanding things like Geneva Convention rights that they clearly don’t deserve. Again, they want free rein to ignore the qualifications for GC treatment, but be granted the benefits later.

And these non-places (like South Ossetia, Abkhazia, Transdniestr….) can’t just be sub-places outside normal constraints of responsibility.

This nonsense has got to stop.

Italian history might offer some insight.

jonlester (Diary) Sunday, August 10th at 10:08PM EST (link)

As I recall from history, Machiavelli was exactly right about the vulnerabilities of city-states to every level of treachery, in his time, and federalism has proven to be a better idea ever since then.

In our own history, there were at least two aspiring new states during the Civil War, in eastern Tennessee and in Dade County, Georgia. I’ve heard some say that the very formation of West Virginia was a covert action by Lincoln to gain one more Union state. There comes a point when a locality just becomes ridiculously small to argue complete autonomy. I’m not saying arbitrary limits should be defined but one definitely has a feeling for when things get ridiculous.

My point is that it's always been that way.

JKH1232 (Diary) Sunday, August 10th at 10:35PM EST (link)

You’ve always had these sorts of problems. You always will. If not Iran, then someone else. If not Hezbollah, then someone else. We simply need to deal with them, and realize it’s part of the game.

Besides, everyone games the system to it’s advantage. It’s part of politics.

 
 
 
 

Skanderbeg....

Joshua Trevino (Diary) Wednesday, August 13th at 10:55PM EST (link)

Might you drop me an e-mail at your convenience?

joshua.trevino
{at}
trevinostrategies
[dot]
com

We are but warriors for the working-day.

 

Russia Plays

ICRJCalvin (Diary) Thursday, August 14th at 1:18PM EST (link)

we kicked the crap outa the commenists

helms4ever Thursday, August 14th at 1:27PM EST (link)

those hazbllah boys got it comin to em way i see it!

 
 

I wonder if the solution

Change Jar Conservative (Diary) Thursday, August 14th at 1:37PM EST (link)

will be Pakistan / India like split ups or re-drawing of maps.

Kurdistan coming out of part of Turkey and Iraq along ethnic lines … that sort of thing.

********
Formerly know as “Oz” in these parts

 

Did I just watch Fox News or Pravda?

Doc Holliday (Diary) Thursday, August 14th at 5:16PM EST (link)

Steve Herrigan, the guy Fox always sends to hurricanes and makes him stand outside on camera, just delivered a crazy report from Georgia.

I am paraphrasing, but this is basically what he said:

“One minute we were hanging around calmy with Russian forces when out of control, hummiliated, and totally undisciplined GEORGIAN irregulars started firing on us. These GEORGIAN irregulars are out of control and humilitated. These Georgians will shoot at anyone they can get away with, and that seems to include reporters”.

I find it interesting that the Fox News “guy that they make stand in hurricanes” is so sure that the irregulars were Georgian, and that the Russian forces occupying Georgia we quite calm.

From what I hear, even from Human Rights Watch, and the President of Georgia, it is the Russian irregulars that are commiting genocide, rape, and looting.

Again, did my cable company switch Fox News with Pravda?

Molon Labe!

 

Steve Herrigan is an idiot

Octavian Thursday, August 14th at 5:23PM EST (link)

Steve Herrigan is so stupid he can’t even keep the actors straight.

I agree he is an idiot

Doc Holliday (Diary) Thursday, August 14th at 5:27PM EST (link)

but there is no doubt he was accusing the Georgians. He said Georgians and humiliated three times. And he mocked them by implying they could only get away with shooting at journalists.

Molon Labe!

Another journalist buying into the lies of tyrants and thugs

JSobieski (Diary) Thursday, August 14th at 5:33PM EST (link)

Don’t be surprised in the New Duranty Times gives him a job offer

My rules of the road for primary season.
Rule #1: Vote for YOUR first choice in the primaries
Rule #2: Vote for the R in the general.
Rule #3: Don’t let anyone convince you to violate Rule #1 or Rule #2
Rule #4: When in a center-right argument, reaffirm Rules #1-#3–it will help us all to get along better.
Rule #5: If you are using the language of the left, you probably aren’t furthering conservativism
Rule #6: The priority is issues first, candidates second, and supporters third. Nobody is bigger than the issues. Conversely, if you spend your time focusing on supporters, you are wasting everyone’s time.

STOP THE MADNESS!

A reduction in the rate of spending increases is NOT a cut!
In-state tuition for illegals is NOT amnesty!
Requiring someone to pay their medical bills is NOT an individual mandate!
Reducing tax rates is NOT a tax increase!

Tovarisch Steve Herrigan

Octavian Thursday, August 14th at 5:35PM EST (link)

Steve Herrigan probably has a mail order bride from Russia.

and Herrigan ran like a girl

Doc Holliday (Diary) Thursday, August 14th at 5:47PM EST (link)

for a mile. Yet, ironically, a real girl, a Georgian female reporter was shot live on camera by Russian thugs. This reporter not only took a real hit, but she calmly finished her report.

here is the link

http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/news/article-23532788-details/Video:+Georgian+TV+reporter+shot+by+Russian+sniper+during+live+broadcast+carries+on+with+her+report+with+bleeding+arm/article.do

I could have imbedded the youtube video but this site gives a translation of what she said.

Molon Labe!

Now Fox accuses the Georgian

Doc Holliday (Diary) Thursday, August 14th at 6:42PM EST (link)

President of temporarily shutting down a Fox owned news station years ago because it was critical of him. The plot thickens. It seems Rupert Murdoch has an axe to grind with the leader of Georgia. I am making guesses but just responding to what I am seeing live on Fox tonight.

The libs think we all just adore Fox News. Personally I think it is the worst at several things, such as sensationalism etc. Yes they have some good shows such as Cavuto and Hannity (I can take or leave Billo), but they are not some great conservative organization.

The thing is, at least in my humble opinion, is that Fox seems like a truffle only compared to the cow pies of CNN and MSNBC.

Molon Labe!

I should have said this earlier

Doc Holliday (Diary) Thursday, August 14th at 6:47PM EST (link)

I apologize to the diarist if my comments seem off topic. I admit I went for the first diary discussing the Georgian conflict.

A complaint I have long had with 3.0 AND 2.0 is the scarcity of open diaries. Not every news story is diary worthy, and some of us are not comfortable always writing a diary. But as a community, I think we should have an opportunity to keep up with breaking issues.

anyway, I am done with this Fox thing.

Molon Labe!

How do I reply to your diary?

Doc Holliday (Diary) Thursday, August 14th at 6:56PM EST (link)

man I don’t like 3.0, but at least I am back, so I guess I hate it less lol.

I think this is a great diary and recommended. So many countries, particularly in Eastern Europe seem to be based solely on ethnicity.

This reminds me of the Chris Rock joke. “Black people don’t hate Jews, we hate white people, we don’t have time to chop them up into little groups!” :)

My point is these people see everything by some ethnic difference that most people would never even see. This is where the USA, and even France and Britain have been proven superior. The mentioned countries are based on ideals, not ethnicities.

Having said that, Georgia seems to be trying to be based on an ideal. The Russians, who were always racist even during the USSR, are trying to exploit ethnic differences for strategic reasons.

Molon Labe!

thanks doc for the video link

pilgrim (Diary) Thursday, August 14th at 6:59PM EST (link)

I do not think of your posts here as threadjacking at all. The story that went along with the video said the female Georgian reporter was either brave or foolish for continuing her report after a sniper shot her. My vote is that she is brave.


Activists Taking Action: Unified Patriots

thanks Pilgrim

Doc Holliday (Diary) Thursday, August 14th at 7:09PM EST (link)

I agree, she was brave and professional.

Molon Labe!

thanks Pilgrim

Doc Holliday (Diary) Thursday, August 14th at 7:09PM EST (link)

I agree, she was brave and professional.

Molon Labe!

Done

Skanderbeg (Diary) Thursday, August 14th at 10:39PM EST (link)

Done. If you see this, let me know if you got it.

Darfur should be a snap.

daveinboca Saturday, August 16th at 6:35AM EST (link)

Let’s not forget Darfur, where The Anointed One will multiply fish & bread [lotsa Omega-3s & carbs] for the famished refugees from his Islamic buddies.