Indiana’s Dem Senator is Evan Bayh, the son of former senator Birch Bayh.

Arkansas Linclon (D) 56-44 (Might be close with a good candidate)
Huckabee could make it close, but that’s about it.

California Boxer (D) 58-38
Not happening. Safe seat.

Colorado Salazar (D) out pretty much open
Most important race of the cycle.

Connecticut Dodd (D) 66-32 (hear they are getting fed up with him)
If the current Governor runs, she could make it close, but she’s all they’ve got.

Delaware Biden (D) gone pretty much open
Highly unlikely, especially if another Biden is on the ticket. Safe seat.

Hawaii Inouye (D) 76-21 (Not seeking Re-election?)
Democrats hold this one either way. Safe seat.

Indiana Bayh (D) 62-37
Virtually impossible, the man’s a state institution unto himself. Safe seat.

Illinois (D) Pretty much open if not moved Republican in election
Still, that’s Obama’s seat. Republicans won’t take it. Safe seat.

Maryland Mikulski (D) 65-34
Safe seat.

New York Schumer (D) 71-24
Safe seat.

New York (Hillary) Appointed replacement
Kennedy and Cuomo would both be pretty safe.

ND Dorgan (D) 68-32
Safe seat.

Nevada Reid (D) 61-35 Very beatable
Beatable by whom? Safe until a competitive challenger appears.

Oregon Wyden (D) 63-32
Safe seat.

Vermont Leahy (D) 71-25
Safe seat.

Washington Murray (D) 55-43 (Senates #1 dimwit, needs a competitor)
Safe seat.

Wisconson Feingold (D) 56-44
Safe seat.

Moving on to the Republicans:

Alaska Murkowski (R) 49-36
Safe seat, for her or Palin.

Alabama Shelby (R) 68-23
Safe seat.

Arizona McCain (R) 77-20 We need a primary
If he gets primaried, it’s a real race. Safe seat otherwise.

Florida Martinez (R) open winnable seat
If Bush gets in the race, probably safe. Otherwise, a real nailbiter.

Georgia Isacson (R) 58-40
Safe seat.

Idaho Crapo (R)
Safe seat.

Iowa Grassley (R) 70-28
Safe seat.

Kansas Brownback (R) 69-28 (Is he running again?)
Sibelius could make this one interesting. Otherwise safe.

Kentucky Bunning (R) 51-49 (Is he running again?)
Either way, this one’s a toss-up

Louisiana Vitter (R) 51-29 (Problems with prostitutes, get General Honore)
This one could go pretty much anywhere. For now let’s leave it as leans Republican.

Missouri Bond (R) 56-43
Likely Republican, except in another wave.

N Carolina Burr (R) 52-47
NC is moving toward the Democrats, and Burr doesn’t have a huge margin of error. Toss-up.

Oklahoma Coburn (R) 53-41
No Democratic bench, and OK is moving further red. Safe seat.

Ohio Voinavich (R) 63-36
Safe seat.

Pennsylvania Specter (R) 53-42
Toss-up if he wins his primary. Leans Democratic if he loses it. Another seat to watch.

S Carolina De Mint (R) 54 – 44
Likely Republican, unless 2010 is another wave year.

New Hampshire Gregg (R) 66-34
New Hampshire moved sharply blue in 2008. Toss-up.

S Dakota Thune (R) 51-49
Toss-up.

Utah Bennet (R) 69-28
Safe seat.

So I count 17 seats for the Democrats and 19 seats for the Republicans. As usual, the vast majority (13 Democratic seats and 10 Republican seats) are safe pretty much no matter what happens. That whittles us down to 9 Republican seats and 4 Democratic seats that are really competitive.

I am not sure Grassley in IA will run again and if he does not its a tough seat for us to hold

KS Open Seat will be tough to hold

Voinovich, Specter, Bunning (he already announced he is running) and Burr will be tough races for us to hold

Gregg in NH is popular but Congressman Hodes is making some noise he may challenge him

Florida Open Seat will be a race probably

Vitter in LA is likely to face Melancon due to redistricting and him seeing the fact he will be one who loses his seat but I think Vitter damage is done

Reid is number #1 Race for us to pickup or….

They can pick up CO, NY (possibly), or ND if we can get solid challenger. CA if Arnold makes the run, AR only if Huckabee runs, DE if only Castle runs, and IL is still a matter we have to face.

Right now, 2010 is that bleak. It’s possible that the Obama administration will crash and burn, and likely that the economy will get worse, so the Republican electoral outlook could improve considerably. As it stands now, though, we’re looking at losses that are possibly bigger than the ones we suffered this year.

Arkansas will only be close with Huckabee, and he already passed on a Senate bid this year. He sees himself as an executive.

North Dakota is only competitive with Gov. Hoeven, who has already passed on several opportunities to run for Senate.

Wisconsin is only competitive with Thompson, who has, like the others, passed on opportunities to run for Senate in the past.

In Nevada, our top candidate is, rightfully or wrongfully, under indictment.

Illinois could be competitive if the Blago scandal severely harms the Party rather than just the individuals involved, but I’m not sure it will.

All other Dem seats are safe.

As for Republican held seats:

In Arizona, McCain is our strongest candidate. As much as I’d like to see him replaced, I have a feeling that any other Republican would lose. McCain himself may well do the same if the Democrats land a strong recruit.

In Alaska, there’s some chatter, I don’t know how serious, about Palin challenging Murkowski in the primary. If she does so successfully, Democrats are likely to target this seat, and the money will be there for their challenger in the general election if Palin wins the primary.

We’ll probably hold Florida if Bush runs. If he doesn’t, though, this seat will be a toss-up at best.

In Iowa, Grassley could be vulnerable to a challenge from one of the state’s Democrat Congressmen, but would enter that race a favorite. He may well choose to pack it in, though, in which case the Democrats will be favored to take over the seat.

In Kansas, Sen. Brownback is retiring. If Gov. Sebelius runs, she will be heavily favored. If not, it will depend on candidate recruitment, though the state’s Republican lean on the national level would probably give us an early edge.

Sen. Bunning crashed and burned in a solidly Republican year, apparently suffering some sort of breakdown in the final stages of the campaign. I don’t know if he has recovered, but if he only won by 2% in 2004, he is certainly vulnerable to another challenge, possibly from the same candidate whose fundraising would be much stronger given his performance the first time around.

Sen. Vitter, for all his problems, can’t be written off, but he is certainly in trouble. This one is probably the least predictable race of the cycle.

Sen. Bond is highly vulnerable to a challenge from one of the Carnahans.

New Hampshire is turning hard left, and Gregg will likely face one of the toughest elections of the cycle. He starts out in better shape than his counterpart, but he’s still vulnerable to either the Governor or one of the state’s two Democrat Congressmen. His 2004 numbers are not indicative of anything, as the Democrats did not run a serious candidate.

Sen. Burr could face a very tough race if Gov. Easley enters the race. He has stronger ties to the Tarheel state than Sen. Dole, but Dole also lost to a second-tier candidate.

Sen. Voinovich is more popular among the state’s conservatives than Sen. DeWine was, but that’s not saying much. The state GOP was run into the ground by Gov. Taft, and the voters aren’t over that yet. I wouldn’t say that Voinovich is finished, but if he runs for reelection, he starts out even at best. I expect, though, that he’ll call it quits, which would give the Democrats a solid, if not prohibitive, advantage.

In Pennsylvania, Sen. Specter is highly vulnerable to a top-tier challenge. He may first have to fend off another primary challenge first. In either case, his health could become a major issue, as would be the state’s hard left movement. He’d probably start out favored against any Democrat with the possible exception of Gov. Rendell, but his edge would not be what it has been in the past.

I don’t see it happening, but if Rep. Herseth decides to challenge Sen. Thune, that could be a race.

All in all, things don’t look good.