After my last diary about sampling in the national polls with respect to party ID, I decided to look at some state polls for the same effect. Sadly, my pool is very limited in most states with respect to gaining access to internals, and I am forced to rely on either partisan polls, or some that have not had the greatest track record in the past, like SurveyUSA and ARG.

The sidebar on Drudge as of this typing show some tightening in the daily trackers tomorrow, but factoring in today’s numbers from Hotline and Rassmussen, Obama’s national average lead from 10 polls between 9/29 and today from which I gained access to the internals stands at 6%. The Democrats sample advantage in those polls over Republicans is 7.9%. I’m not suggesting they should be even, but closer to past figures of a 3-4% advantage for the Dems would be more representative, I feel, of the populous. Even Gallup put out numbers today which downplay expectations for the young voter and minority turnout for Obama, making it more reflective of past voting populations.

I selected 9/29 as a point because it is in the middle of the bailout mess, which I think changed the whole nature of this race. I hesitate to go too far back in state polls as I’d run into convention bounces and such, which may put more noise into the data. I call this writing ”preliminary” because I want to check out more than the 2000, 2004, and 2006 exit polls, and I fully anticipate to continue to add more polls to these figures as election day approaches. But I did want to pass along some of the anomalies I’m finding already.

In Florida, 4 polls show Obama has an average lead of 2.5%, but the Democrats have a sample representation advantage over the GOP of 3.8%. This is significant because in the 2006 and 2004 elections respectively, exit polls show a 3 and 4 point advantage to the GOP. The 2004 exit poll also showed a 2.7% lead for Kerry in a state he lost by 5 points, despite the 4 point GOP advantage. So we begin to see the noise we know all so well with exit polls reflected in these figures, but the 2008 polls are still reflecting a 7-8 point swing to Democrats in Florida if we are to believe these polls are an accurate reflection of these electorates.

In North Carolina, 4 polls average to a 1.3% lead for Obama, and a 10.8% advantage for the Democrats. In 2004, the GOP had a 1% turnout advantage in the exit polls, which showed a 6% lead for Bush (he won by 12%). In 2000, the exit polls show a 12.6% turnout advantage for the Dems, but also showed Gore with a 3.3% lead, in a state he lost by 13%. Perhaps pollsters are looking to the 2000 election exit polls as a turnout guide for their polls? Either way, the change between 2004 and today represents almost a 12% point shift towards Democrats in a state with a competitive Senate and Governor’s race. While those other races may help pull more Dems to the polls, a shift that large smells fishy to me, as I have great familiarity with NC’s voter population. I will have to look back at past elections to see if the exit polls look more like the 2000 electorate (which was still very flawed) or the 2004 turnout. I expect the Dems to have an advantage, but not in double digits.

Ohio: 5 polls average to a 4% Obama lead, and 5.4% Dem sample advantage. In 2006, the Dems, riding a wave of corruption from state Republicans, did see a turnout advantage of 3% in exit polls. So perhaps that will follow suit this year? In 2004, the GOP had the advantage, however, of 5%. In 2000, the advantage was 4% for the Dems. That exit poll showed Bush ahead by 1% in a state he won by 4%. So I’m not sure what to make of Ohio, particularly with the voter registration scandal that is going on now. I’ll have to punt on it until more polls become available. These ID shifts between elections, however, may suggest that movement of 7-8 points is possible in some states, depending on GOTV efforts (if you believe the exit polls).

Virginia: 4 Polls show an Obama lead, and Democratic advantage at an identical 6.8%. In 2006, the GOP advantage in exit polls was 3%, and in 2004 it was 4%. So again we are seeing approximately a 10% shift in the electorate towards the Democrats if the polls are accurate. The 2000 exit polls again showed a Dem advantage of 4.2%, and Gore ahead by 0.6% over Bush – but the real result was a Bush 7% win, so again there is a noise problem, but they are the only thing I’ve found so far close to the current poll representation. Like in Florida, the 2004 exits showed a 5.9% Kerry lead in a state he lost by 8%, and despite the GOP turnout advantage.

So again, take this with a bit of a grain of salt for now. I have several other battleground states in the chart I’ve created, but they all have 2 or 1 poll with available internals in my 9/29-now time frame. I will update as more polls become available.

Overall, if the numbers hold as they are going forward with the inclusion of more polling data, I have great reservations about the 7-10%+ shifts in the partisan ID of the electorate as illustrated by these polls. Like I said before, I’ll buy some shift towards the Dems, but for the population to shift this much would be a realignment of almost historical proportions, which I am just not seeing in today’s public given that such a change would be an acceptance of Democratic policies which trend towards socialist. Current Congressional approval ratings, and the bailout backlash simply do not suggest acceptance for such a change. I also have a lot of concern about comparing these figures to past exit polls, given their inherent reporting problems, but they are the best thing I can think of to use for past elections.

Also, if any of you have access to premium poll data, or can recommend some sites with state polls, I’d love to know, as this has really caught my attention.

Sources:
RCP Battleground Polls
CNN 200 Exit Poll Results
CNN 2004 Exit Polls
CNN 2006 Exit Polls
Roper Center Exit Polls

I decided to review some national polls after seeing the Newsweek poll, and Jim Geraghty’s piece over at NRO with regards to the spread between reported D/R/I party affiliation. Sample weighting is always problematic, and this election appears to be no different. Dating back to 1988, D’s traditionally have a 3-4 point advantage in turnout, save the 2004 election when the two parties ran even. Even 2006, with the Democratic wave in Congress only saw an advantage of D+3 nationally.

We are also told that this is the worst year for the GOP brand since Watergate, and we have a standard bearer candidate in McCain that is not exactly the model Republican or conservative. Obama is also supposed to have a major ground game compared to McCain, and new appeal to younger and minority voters that will drive up Democrat turnout. These things suggest that, perhaps, a spread similar to that in the past, if not slightly higher is indeed possible, if not probable.

However, looking at the polls in which I was able to attain data (I don’t have any premium subscriptions) listed on Real Clear Politics, we see a distinct advantage for the Democrats. I hope this formatting works:

• Poll Sponsor Date Dems GOP Indys DemAdv Obama Adv

• Hotline 10/10 41 37 18 +4 +10

• Newsweek 10/9 40 27 30 +13 +11

• FoxNews 10/9 41 34 21 +7 +7

• Time 10/6 37 29 27 +8 +6

• NBC 10/5 44 36 15 +8 +6

• CBS 10/5 37 28 35 +9 +3

• DemCorp 10/5 40 33 26 +7 +3

• AP 9/30 40 29 25 +11 +7

• Pew 9/29 37 30 30 +7 +6

• Average 39.7 31.4 25.2 +8.3 +6.6

The +6.6 spread for Obama is roughly the same as in recent polls I was not able to get party ID data from, at +6.3. These polls include Gallup, Rassmussen, and Zogby’s daily trackers from 10/10, as well as CNN on 10/5, Ipsos on 10/6, ABC on 9/30, and Marist on 9/30. If any of you have access to these #s, let me know and I’ll update.

If McCain is able to close the gap in future polls, it will be important to watch these figures, and see if the gap closes between D/R. Hotline is the only daily tracker on the list, and is a bit of an outlier. Otherwise, several of the polls show Obama’s lead mirroring the sample advantage for the Dems. Indeed, Republicans should look at polls from CBS and Democracy Corps last week with a bit of hope, assuming the electorate reflects past elections, with a 3-4% D advantage, since roughly 9/10 Republicans are voting for McCain in all these polls, it would quickly shave off the lead.

The Dems, at a 39.7% average are running about where they normally do (just slightly above) in electoral turnout. The GOP’s 31.4 % is what’s off, since we usually run at 35-36%. This makes the GOTV effort on our side even more important. Indeed, 2 of these polls show Independents outnumbering the GOP (Pew does as well in raw numbers). Thus, as we’ve been saying on here, and hearing from consrvative radio: do not let yourself get depressed by the MSM or the horse race aspect of these polls! You need to turnout and continue to talk to friends about the election! This is just as important as winning over the Indys, as it would quickly close the gap in these polls.

This will, no doubt, be where the MSM screams racism or purports the Bradley effect as the reason for a McCain victory. But they are missing this very key figure in the reporting of polls, perhaps on purpose. It could be the frustration with the socialist leanings of Obama, and the Dems in congress that help drive the turnout towards a more historical figure, rather than the gaps shown by the polls currently. McCain can and should indeed feed off the frustration illustrated in the crowds at his events recently.

If Obama wins, it will be interesting to note if these polls are accurate in reflecting the electorate. If so, the MSM will declare it a death knell for the GOP. It may just be a fault of McCain, and his inability to separate from Bush’s shadow or purport a solid economic plan thus far. But it will be a signal, hopefully, to the GOP that it needs to rally the troops for future elections as Rove/Bush did last go-around, and get back to a solid conservative message.

I will follow this up with some battleground state polls soon to see if there are similar problems.

Sources:
Jim Geraghty
RCP National Polls

Being a professor, I guess I wound up on some mailing list. Thought I’d share it, and ask if McCain is doing anything like this? It seems like they are covering their legal bases with partisan messages in class, but I doubt that will be hidden if some of my colleagues follow though.

Not sure how to quote/indent, so I’ll just copy/paste.

“Dear Professor:

My name is [REDACTED], and I’m the deputy youth vote director for the Obama campaign in Michigan. I’m sending this email to ask you, as a professor, to assist students who wish to vote in this year’s election to become registered by October 6.

Registration isn’t complicated, but it can seem that way to a busy student. We’re trying to make the process easy and convenient–and non-partisan.

Because the voter registration deadline (Oct. 6) is so soon, we would appreciate speaking to your class as soon as possible. The information on what will be said in your class is below.

HERE ARE THE DETAILS OF THE NEXT STEP:

(1) Email me to confirm at MI@studentsforbarackobama.com.
(2) Include in your email when your class meets. A volunteer will schedule to come to the class. This person can answer any questions that students may have. The entire process takes just five minutes.
(3) Afterward, the voter registration forms will be delivered promptly to the clerk’s office by the volunteer.

The non-partisan message presented in class goes like this:

My name is [volunteer's name] and I am working to help get all students registered to vote, regardless of their political affiliations. If you have moved since you last registered to vote, or would like to register to vote for your first time, please take a form and fill it out. It takes just one minute to register. I will be here to answer any questions that you may have. Thanks!

Please note what will NOT happen in your classroom:

(1) There will be no mention of any candidate.
(2) There will be no partisan message.
(3) There will be no literature passed out mentioning any campaign.

If you have any questions or hesitation, I would be happy to respond. Please email me at”