It has become ever clearer to me that as our economy starts going down the pot, Democrats are poised for apocalyptic losses in all areas state and federal. Here’s how I think it goes down:
2011 races
1. House Specials
NY-26 Special:
Jack Davis(TP)-36%
Jane Corwin(R/C/IP)-35%
Kathy Hochul(D)-29%
CA-36 Special:
Debra Bowen(D)-27%
Janice Hahn(D)-24%
Mike Webb(R)-19%
Marcy Winograd(D)-9%
Mike Gin(R)-6%
Dan Adler(D)-4%
Lorraine Goodwin(D)-4%
Kit Bobko(R)-3%
Stephen Eisele(R)-2%
George Newberry(R)-1%
Craig Huey(R)-1%
CA-36 Special Runoff:
Debra Bowen(D)-53%
Janice Hahn(D)-47%
NV-2 Special:
Kate Marshall(D)-51%
Brian Krolicki(R)-32%
Mark Amodei(R)-10%
Greg Brower(R)-4%
Sharron Angle(R)-2%
Kirk Lippold(R)-1%
Dem +1, Tea Party +1
2. Gubernatorial Races
KY-GOV:
David Lewis Williams/Richard Dwight Farmer Junior(R)-49%
Steven Lynn Beshear/Jerry Edwin Abramson(D)-48%
Louis Gatewood Galbraith/Dea Riley(I)-3%
LA-GOV:
Piyush Jindal(R)-59%
Cathryn Caroline Fayard(D)-33%
John Georges(D)-7%
Daniel Northcutt(I)-1%
MS-GOV:
Phillip Bryant(R)-66%
Johnny DuPree(D)-33%
Shawn O’Hara(Reform)-1%
WV-GOV:
Earl Ray Tomblin(D)-55%
William Maloney(R)-44%
Robert Henry Baber(M)-1%
GOP +1
2012 Races
1. United States Senate Races to Watch
CT-SEN:
Susan Bysiewicz(D)-57%
Michael Fedele(R)-43%
FL-SEN:
Adam Hasner(R)-51%
Bill Nelson(D)-49%
MA-SEN:
Alan Khazei(D)-52%
Scott Brown(R)-48%
MI-SEN:
Thad McCotter(R)-53%
Debbie Stabenow(D)-47%
MO-SEN:
Sarah Steelman(R)-54%
Claire McCaskill(D)-46%
MT-SEN:
Dennis Rehberg(R)-52%
Jon Tester(D)-48%
NE-SEN:
Jon Bruning(R)-60%
Benny Nelson(D)-40%
NJ-SEN:
Joseph Pennachio(R)-51%
Robert Menendez(D)-49%
NM-SEN:
Greg Sowards(R)-51%
Martin Heinrich(D)-49%
ND-SEN:
Brian Kalk(R)-71%
Jasper Schneider(D)-29%
OH-SEN:
Kevin Coughlin(R)-53%
Sherrod Brown(D)-47%
PA-SEN:
Samuel Rohrer(R)-52%
Robert Casey Junior(D)-48%
VA-SEN:
George Allen(R)-54%
Timothy Kaine(D)-46%
WA-SEN:
David Reichert(R)-51%
Maria Cantwell(D)-49%
Resulting in a GOP net gain of +11
2. Gubernatorial Races to Watch
MO-GOV:
Peter D. Kinder(R)-53%
Jeremiah Wilson Nixon(D)-47%
MO-GOV:
Richard Hill(R)-55%
Steve Bullock(D)-45%
NH-GOV:
Ovide LaMontagne(R)-51%
John H. Lynch(D)-49%
NC-GOV:
Patrick Lloyd McCrory(R)-57%
Beverly Eaves Perdue(D)-43%
WA-GOV:
Robert McKenna(R)-53%
Jay Robert Inslee(D)-47%
WV-GOV:
Earl Ray Tomblin(D)-54%
Clark Barnes(R)-46%
GOP +5
3. United States House of Representatives Pickups
Democrats(+2): NY-25, TX-27
Republicans(+72): AZ-7, AZ-8, AR-4, CA-11, CA-18, CA-20, CA-47, CA-51, CO-7, CT-2, CT-4, CT-5, GA-2, GA-12, IN-2, IA-1, IA-2, IA-3, KY-3, KY-6, ME-1, ME-2, MA-3, MA-5, MA-6, MA-10, MI-5, MI-9, MI-15, MN-1, MN-7, MO-3, MO-5, NJ-6, NJ-9, NJ-12, NM-1, NM-3, NY-1, NY-4, NY-9, NY-22, NY-23, NY-26, NY-27, NC-7, NC-8, NC-11, NC-13, OH-9, OH-10, OH-13, OK-2, OR-1, OR-4, OR-5, PA-4, PA-12, PA-13, PA-17, RI-1, TN-5, TX-5, TX-15, TX-25, UT-2, VA-11, WA-2, WA-6, WA-9, WV-3, WI-3
Resulting in a GOP net gain of +70
4. United States Presidency
Republican Ticket: Donald John Trump/Richard John Santorum
Democratic Ticket: Barack Hussein Obama/John Forbes Kerry
Trump/Santorum(389 EV’s)(54%): AL, AK, AZ, AR, CO, FL, GA, ID, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, ME, MI, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NV, NH, NJ, NM, NC, ND, OH, OK, OR, PA, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VA, WA, WV, WI, WY
Obama/Kerry(149 EV’s)(43%): CA, CT, DC, DE, HI, IL, MA, MD, NY, RI, VT
Those races I didn’t mention were held by the incumbent party. In several states, I see Democrats getting demoted to 3rd party status. Pretty soon, Democrats will be the equivalent of the old Whigs. These are my thoughts, and I’d love to hear yours.
Moe Lane
PG DeFreese
Victoria Coates
Daniel Horowitz
Dan Spencer
That's brutal
cordpt Tuesday, May 10th at 3:15PM EST (link)Besides wildly optimistic and inconsistent, there are some really far-fetched scenarios: Scott Brown to lose and Pennacchio to be elected state-wide in MA? Let me guess: you predicted Christine O’Donnell, DioGuardi and Angle to win their elections last fall.
Anyway, I’m worried about NY-26. It’s insane so many people are falling for Crazy Jack Davis act. Rove is spending $600,000 there, hopefully it’s enough.
I want what you're having.
NightTwister (Diary) Tuesday, May 10th at 3:25PM EST (link)There’s no way we win back CO-7. After redistricting we lose CO-3, CO-6 and possibly CO-4.
The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter. – Winston Churchill
Do you have insights into CO redistricting?
YnotNOW (Diary) Tuesday, May 10th at 4:40PM EST (link)I’m only seeing deadlock and potential decision by court.
YnotNOW
If not me, who? If not now, when?
It's gonna go their way.
NightTwister (Diary) Tuesday, May 10th at 11:22PM EST (link)They have the numbers.
The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter. – Winston Churchill
I thought that the legislature...
Moe Lane (Diary) Tuesday, May 10th at 11:36PM EST (link)…had melted down on the maps. What are we missing?
The Kim Kardashian of blogging.
Check out my blog at http://moelane.com/.
http://moelane.com/filthy-lucre-filthy-lucre/
http://twitter.com/moelane
My (combined) wish list.
I'm Assuming NT Is Assuming That The CO Courts...
IJB Tuesday, May 10th at 11:55PM EST (link)…Will just pick one of the earlier Dem maps (i.e. impose a Dem gerrymander).
While that may be a possible outcome, I’m not so sure it’s inevitable (some of the Dem maps were ridiculous from a CoI standpoint – Boulder with Douglas co.?! ridiculous!! I doubt a court would ever do that).
We’ll soon see, it would appear…
Denver Post article on re-districting stalemate
YnotNOW (Diary) Wednesday, May 11th at 12:08PM EST (link)Amid full-scale finger-pointing, the Colorado State Legislature tried (yet again) on Tuesday but failed to redraw congressional boundaries, meaning lawmakers likely are headed to court. A redistricting lawsuit was filed Tuesday in Denver District Court by seven Democratic and unaffiliated voters.
Senate Republicans demanded that every bill be read at length until Democrats agreed to hear a House GOP redistricting bill headed their way. Republicans promised to amend that bill to introduce another map they thought would have a better chance of passing, but a Democratic-controlled committee killed the bill Tuesday night.
The Democratic Senate president Brandon Shaffer of Longmont, and the Republican House speaker Frank McNulty of Highlands Ranch blamed each other for the breakdown of closed-door negotiations in the governor’s office.
Republicans say they believe it was the Democrats’ intent all along to go to the courts, hoping that a liberal judge will draw them a friendly map. But Democrats for weeks have placed the blame on Republicans, saying the GOP drew legislative maps designed to give Republicans victories in five of seven congressional districts
http://www.denverpost.com/politics/ci_18037124#ixzz1M3TErUzT
Democrats and Republicans have each drawn many map proposals. Generally, Republicans have given priority to keeping geographical areas together – such as the Eastern Plans and the Western Slope. But these areas tend to be strongly Republican and result in “safe” seats. Democrats have drawn boundaries to make more districts “competitive” but that requires breaking up these geographical areas to combine portions of each with Denver or Boulder suburbs to get Democrat voters into the balance.
YnotNOW
If not me, who? If not now, when?
Moe, this is what you're missing.
NightTwister (Diary) Wednesday, May 11th at 1:38PM EST (link)The rules are different this time.
It used to be that the Western Slope had to be kept intact. Same for the Eastern Plains. This was done beacuse what’s important for Denver isn’t important for the Western Slope, etc.
Those rules were removed, so they can do pretty much whatever they want. The Democrat plan would make it such that all seven representatives could conceivably live within one mile of Denver International Airport (DIA).
The Democrat plan puts Boulder and Grand Junction in the same district as an example. The idea is to carve up the large cities and include enough of them into the rural areas to negate the rural (and more conservative) vote.
In case you hadn’t noticed, CO-1 and CO-2 have always been very save districts for Democrats, due to most of the Districts covering mostly city areas. DeGette and Polis are two of the most liberal Representatives in Congress. DeGette would give Pelosi a run for her money.
The idea is to take some of those liberal voters and move them into CO-3 & CO-6, and fewer into CO-4. Mike Coffman (CO-6) would likely be replaced by a liberal, same for Scott Tipton (CO-3). Cory Gardner (CO-4) would likely face a much tougher challenge in 2012 was well.
It’s conceivable that if the Democrats get thier map approved, 5 of 7 congressional seats will be held by them for the foreseeable future.
Since the court-appointed commission will be deciding this, I’d say it’s pretty much a done deal. The Democrats knew it, and that’s why they had no interest at all in handling it in the legislature where Republicans control one of the Houses.
Oversight for the Commission is provided by the State Supreme Court, which is safely in liberal hands. The U.S. Supreme Court won’t intervene in these State issues either, so that’s a dead-end. The end-game here is already set. All that’s left is to go through the motions.
The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter. – Winston Churchill
Thank you for the insight, NT. Condolences to Colorado.
acat (Diary) Wednesday, May 11th at 5:12PM EST (link)Y’all are in for a sad, expensive ride if there’s no way to get a better redistricting map rammed through.
Mew
——
Caveat Suffragator
Local Elections have consequences.
NightTwister (Diary) Wednesday, May 11th at 6:37PM EST (link)I’ve been talking about it for a long time now. They aren’t as sexy as national elections, but can have just as far-reaching consequences if enough people aren’t paying attention.
The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter. – Winston Churchill
Definitely agree, we have to keep our eye on ...
acat (Diary) Wednesday, May 11th at 6:47PM EST (link)*ALL* levels of government.
Mew
——
Caveat Suffragator
I'll Make a Prediction
IJB Wednesday, May 11th at 7:31PM EST (link)If the CO Courts do anything like what you suggest, then district line-drawing will be permanently taken out of the hands of the judiciary (and likely the legislature) next time there’s a proposition election.
I think doing things like putting Bolder together in a district with Douglas co., and splitting Eastern Plains and Western Slope would create such a backlash, that a proposition in response would be almost inevitable.
So if the Courts want to put themselves out of the business of line-drawing, they’ll do what you suggest. But, if they’re smart, that won’t color so far outside the lines…
Who's going to stop them?
NightTwister (Diary) Wednesday, May 11th at 9:31PM EST (link)They currently have control of the state Senate, Governor, and Supreme Court. The Republican control of the state House is precarious….only by a single vote do they have a majority.
They know they can do this, and I don’t see anyone stopping them or any real backlash. Even the email today from Ryan Call (State GOP Chair) was weak and whiny.
Until people get serious here with state-level politics and run some good candidates, things are going to be like there for some time to come.
The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter. – Winston Churchill
OTOH, This Is Equally as Crazy a Claim as SE's...
IJB Tuesday, May 10th at 11:58PM EST (link)You really think a 1R-6D map in CO is even possible?!
I sure don’t. The Dems can get to 3R-4D.
Much more than that, and they’ll have a “dummymander” on their hands…
Agree
YnotNOW (Diary) Wednesday, May 11th at 12:11PM EST (link)Colorado has 3 liberal strongholds (Denver, Boulder and Aspen) which can only be spread so far in combining with more conservative areas to gerrymander them into “competitive”.
I reality, no one wants to be joined with Denver or Boulder, because their voices would be balanced with such crazy ideas (remember the ballot proposal to create a department of extraterrestrial affairs?).
YnotNOW
If not me, who? If not now, when?
You don't think a "dummymander" is exactly what they're planning?
NightTwister (Diary) Wednesday, May 11th at 4:14PM EST (link)5-2 is definitely doable, 6-1 isn’t out of reach.
Colorado has 5M people. Of those, 40% are in liberal or liberal-leaning cities in or near Denver, Boulder, and Pueblo. If you divide those areas up strategically, you can dilute pretty much all of the conservative vote except for the Colorado Springs area.
It’s not hard to do either, considering Denver is near the middle of the state. Although the maps the Democrats propose look ridiculous to us, to the untrained observer they wouldn’t look that unusual at all.
The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter. – Winston Churchill
I'd love for Cooper in TN-5 to lose, but I don't see that happening.
Melody Warbington (rwm52) (Diary) Tuesday, May 10th at 3:48PM EST (link)Of course, nobody thought Lincoln Davis in TN-4 would lose either, so I guess it’s possible.
The woman saith unto him, I know that Messiah cometh (he that is called Christ): when he is come, he will declare unto us all things. (John 4:25)
Cooper May Be Targetted in Redistricting
IJB Tuesday, May 10th at 11:56PM EST (link)If Cooper’s district is weakened enough, he could lose.
IJB, that is great news about Cooper. Thanks. nt
Melody Warbington (rwm52) (Diary) Tuesday, May 10th at 11:59PM EST (link)The woman saith unto him, I know that Messiah cometh (he that is called Christ): when he is come, he will declare unto us all things. (John 4:25)
Don't Get Me Wrong...
IJB Wednesday, May 11th at 12:03AM EST (link)Targeting Cooper won’t be easy – you either make his district only marginally more Republican (which may not be enough to take him out), or you have to ‘crack’ Nashville which will be quite controversial and not be popular (esp. with current TN incumbents who will have to take on new Dem-friendly territory…).
Redistricting
proudgop (Diary) Wednesday, May 11th at 12:13AM EST (link)I wont get into guessing game but we know have redistricting done in: MO, IN, OK, AR, LA, IA and nothing gonna change in SD, ND, DE and VT
Republicans are picking up 1 in Indiana losing 1 in LA while Dems lose in MO. They seem to have made AR 1 bit more competitive for Crawford but did same for Ross. Iowa map is interesting I think Latham can beat Boswell and King will hang on to his seat. The other 2 seats are pretty Dem heavy
The one state that worries me with redistricting is Illinois the dems control it all and are gonna try to get 4 seats there. CA too I suspose. Here in NY I hope Republicans play ball and make Dems have fair process.
CO is gonna to courts. I will be happy so long as they shore Coffman, Tipton, and Gardner.
IJB, didn't mean to sound overconfident.
Melody Warbington (rwm52) (Diary) Wednesday, May 11th at 12:56AM EST (link)I know it would be a hard sell to oust Cooper, but it would be delicious for him to at least have to fight for his seat. Plus, as I previously said, nobody thought Lincoln Davis would lose, and that was a total rout.
The woman saith unto him, I know that Messiah cometh (he that is called Christ): when he is come, he will declare unto us all things. (John 4:25)
Lot of guesses
powertothepeople (Diary) Wednesday, May 11th at 12:38AM EST (link)But I do not see a scenario in which Debbie loses in MI. Way too entrenched and too many super strong Democratic strongholds in her area. Even with the 2002 redistricting, Oakland county is way too strong to see her unseated. But stranger things have happened and there is a movement to the right in much of MI.
But the fact that you list Donald Trump as our republican nominee brings much of your political insight into question. If we put up Donald as our nominee, we need to all hit ourselves in the mouth every day for the following four years. As to the other areas, will leave the guessing up to those who live there and or know the area.
There is *no way* that Kinder wins MO Gov that easy
Bill S (Diary) Wednesday, May 11th at 12:39AM EST (link)Nixon is a pretty popular governor here. Any GOP nominee will have an uphill battle, and unless Nixon completely falls apart between now and the 2012 election, he has a very good chance of winning another term.
“It’s such a fine line between stupid, and clever.” – David St. Hubbins
Should The Market Drop About 10%,
Repair_Man_Jack (Diary) Wednesday, May 11th at 4:55PM EST (link)This becomes possible. It would be by virtue of about a 5% shift in the soon-to-retire Baby Boom’s electoral preference. Remember how much of people’s retirements are in the market these days.
Mr. Obama is pretending that an economic “recovery” is underway when he knows damn well that the banking system is just blowing smoke up the shredded *** of what’s left of that economy – James Howard Kunstler
Real Estate is also going to continue to slide....
acat (Diary) Wednesday, May 11th at 5:21PM EST (link)Zillow (http://www.zillow.com) don’t see a bottom to most of the market in 2011, expect home prices to continue to drop…. and for some people approaching retirement, their money is in their houses, not IRAs or 401ks.
(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/housing-crash-is-getting-worse-2011-05-09?link=MW_latest_news)
The only two places to go have been the market and precious metals… and most Joe and Janes, as far as I can tell, haven’t been buying gold…
When the crash comes, it’s going to be bad.
Mew
——
Caveat Suffragator
Most major real estate markets are still
mbecker908 (Diary) Wednesday, May 11th at 6:11PM EST (link)20% to 25% inflated. At least.
Normal MLS is about 4 months supply based on current month sales. Right now MLS in most areas is running 12 – 16 months.
Lenders are holding real-estate-owned inventories that are not listed that are about equal to MLS listings.
And then there’s the houses that are in default but haven’t been taken back yet. Roughly twice MLS and very likely to go up dramatically as prices continue to fall.
Bottom line, huge inventories. Mortgage underwriting standards that are very, very restrictive based on income verification, liquid assets and credit score. And then there’s the unexpected problem with appraisals. Frank/Dodd significantly tightened up appraisal standards and I’ve seen reports to the effect that 10% of houses under contract have to be renegotiated because of appraisals that are significantly below the offer price.
There is no end in sight for residential real estate crumbling. If you’re looking at buying or selling, DO NOT believe anything a realtor tells you. And talk to a bunch of them. Be skeptical.
NY-26
cordpt Wednesday, May 11th at 7:08PM EST (link)Tea party darling David Bellavia endorses Crazy Jack Davis,
http://www.rollcall.com/news/bellavia_endorses_davis_as_attack_escalate_in_ny_special-205512-1.html?pos=hln
Jack Davis, mind you, is a Democrat (collected multiple defeats in Dem primaries) who’s running as a phony Tea Party candidate. It’s amazing that Bellavia is falling for such a transparent fraud like this one:
https://political.nrcc.org/ny26/
From now on, Bellavia can’t be taken seriously – and he’s putting in jeopardy the credibility of Tea Party activists by endorsing Crazy Jack Davis (a perennial loser in Democratic primaries who has some pretty bizarre ideas on issues like farm labour and everything else).
There’s a strong conservative like Jane Corwin in this race:
http://www.janecorwin.com/
This is a seat Republicans have hold for 50 of the last 60 years and won by almost 50 points last November. If they lose this seat, you can bet we’ll never hear the end of it about how voters are turning against conservatives and DeMint/Ryan agenda.