http://www.gallup.com/poll/139337/Obama-Weekly-Approval-Average-Dips-New-Low.aspx

Now, assuming that Gallup’s polling sample is about 13% Black (national average), then that means Obama’s support among the 87% of the population that’s not black has to be roughly 39% in order for the total approval to be 46%.  Which means that Obama’s approval among non-black minorities is identical to his approval among whites.

Also, if you take Obama’s 63% approval from non-whites as a whole, and assume that Blacks comprise about 2/5ths of the non-whites in the sample, that means the non-black minorities have only a 43% approval for Obama.

This is quite a large swing, considering less than a year ago Gallup had him polling 78% approval among Hispanics and 81% approval among non-Whites in general.  This represents an 18-point drop-off in non-white support and probably a much larger one among Hispanics and Asians, as his approval among Blacks has only dropped 2 points.

Now, there are a couple of explanations for this: Gallup might have under-sampled blacks this week, they might have over-sampled Conservative Hispanics or Asians (you usually get small sample sizes for those groups unless you’re targeting them, leading to high margins of error), or Liberal Hispanics might be voicing their disapproval of his inaction on Arizona’s immigration law.  However, the most likely explanation is that non-black minorities (and Hispanics in particular) are turning away from Obama, a notion that Gallup notes is likely and says they’ll investigate further.

But whatever the reason, polling that low among two ethnic groups that are usually solid democrats should be unsettling for Obama, especially with the Midterms only 5 months away.

Northern Georgia:

Here are some close-ups
Savannah Area:

Macon Area:

Atlanta Area:

Overall: It should give a solid 10-4-0 Spread (10 Republicans, 4 Democrats, 0 Swings), with all 4 Democratic districts being African-American Majority ones. To break it down by Area, we go 6-3 in the Atlanta Metro Area, 2-0 in the rest of Northern Georgia, and 2-1 in Southern Georgia We should win the 12th and 8th pretty easily, and also the new 14th. The current map only had two African-American majority districts, though it has 4 others with over 40% of the population being black. Basically I packed Southern Georgia’s Blacks into the 2nd district, cut out the white parts of the current 4th and 5th to make the 14th, and made some small adjustments to the Atlanta suburb districts. I also dissected John Barrow and Jim Marshall’s districts, and made them all strongly Republican. The only real leap of faith here is the 9th, which wraps across the Border From Alabama to South Carolina, which was done to spread out Northern Georgia’s heavily Republican tilt

1st District (Dark Blue, Southern Georgia): This district loses most of its territory around Savannah, and some of the northern rural areas, but gains some largely white areas in the Southwestern part of the state. As a whole the district moves a few points toward the Democratic Column due to increased percentage of African Americans, but overall remains a staunchly Republican district. Incumbent Jack Kingston is barely drawn out of this district however, so it could be an open seat depending on if he runs in the 1st or 3rd. Partisan rating of about R + 14.

2nd District (Dark Green, Southern Georgia): This district is probably the ugliest drawn district in the country, as it includes Georgia’s Southwestern black belt, and the heavily black areas around Columbus, Albany, Macon, and Savannah, which has a finger connection drawn straight across the state. Overall, it’s about 60% black, and therefore solidly Democratic. Incumbent Black Blue Dog Democrat Sanford Bishop is probably guaranteed re-election, unless a primary challenge from the left emerges to unseat him, although Democrats John Barrow and Jim Marshall are also in this district. Partisan rating of about D + 11.

3rd District (Purple, Southern Georgia): This district is based out of the Middle of Southern Georgia, and reaches almost completely across the state, from Marion County near Columbus to Savannah. It is vastly different than the current 3rd, based in Atlanta’s Western Suburbs, but is somewhat similar to the old 3rd, which covered much of the same territory. This district is strongly Republican, and is similar to the 1st in terms of demographics. 1st District Incumbent Jack Kingston has his home him this district, though 12th district Democrat John Barrow may also run, as his district has been dissected. Partisan rating of about R + 12.

4th District (Red, Atlanta Area): This district covers most of Southern DeKalb County, most of Rockdale county, and parts of Fulton, Newton, and Gwinnet. It is 64% African American, and heavily Democratic, being only about 20% White. Incumbent Hank Johnson is guaranteed re-election. Partisan rating of about D + 30

5th District (Yellow, Atlanta Area): This district covers Southern Atlanta, parts of Northern DeKalb, and western Gwinnet. It is 60% African American, but only 14% white, with Hispanics amounting to close to 20% of the population. As a result, it’s overwhelmingly Democratic, and therefore safe for incumbent John Lewis. Partisan rating of about D + 35.

6th District (Cyan, Atlanta Area): This district has lost most Northern Fulton, but has gained most of Cobb County instead. It remains heavily Republican, though a bit less white than the current 6th. Incumbent Tom Price’s home has been drawn into the newly-created 14th, though 11th district incumbent Phil Gingrey has been drawn in. Partisan rating of about R + 16

7th District (Grey, Atlanta Area): This district is comprised of eastern Gwinnet county, Barrow, and Walton Counties, and part of Oconee county. It is heavily Republican, and almost identical to the current county. Incumbent John Linder is safe here. Partisan Rating of about R + 16

8th District (Light Blue, Atlanta Area): This district is comprised of Northern Columbus, and most of the South Atlanta Suburbs. As a result, it is heavily White and Heavily Republican, being the spiritual successor to the current 3rd district, though the 3rd district incumbent, Lynn Westmoreland, is in the 11th district. Whoever winds up being the republican nominee is essentially guaranteed the seat. Partisan rating of about R + 20

9th District (Light Blue, Tennessee and South Carolina Border): This district is radically different than the current disposition, as it wraps from the Northwest Corner of the state down to Augusta on the Eastern border. It is drawn to disperse some of the heavily republican tilt of Northern Georgia to the rest of the state, as it includes the heavily black parts of Augusta. As a result it is more African American and therefore more Democratic, but remains a solidly Republican seat. Incumbent Nathan Deal is drawn out of this district, making it an open seat but very likely to remain in the Republican column. Partisan rating of about R + 20.

10th District (Pink, Northern Atlanta Area): This district is comprised of the heavily Republican Northern Atlanta Exurbs, stretching from Gordon county in the west to Jackson in the east. The only part not sharing the heavily republican tilt is the city of Athens, which is mostly in the district (a small bit is in the neighboring 12th), but is nowhere near large enough to affect the politics of this district. 9th District incumbent Nathan Deal is in this district, and is virtually guaranteed re-election. Partisan rating of about R + 18

11th District (Light Green, Western Atlanta): This district is comprised of part of the western Suburbs and Exurbs of Atlanta, and stretches from Chattooga County in the North to Coweta County in the south. Current 3rd District Incumbent Lynn Westmoreland is likely to keep a solid lock on this seat. Partisan rating of about R + 19

12th District (Pale-Blue, East-Central Georgia): This district stretches from the white parts of Augusta to the white parts of Macon, and also includes a good part of Rural Southern Georgia. It is heavily Republican, being 70% white, and current 10th District Incumbent Paul Broun Jr. is drawn into the district, though current 8th district incumbent Democratic John Marshall might run. Partisan rating of about R + 15

13th District (Tan, Atlanta Area): This district covers the Eastern and Southern Suburbs of Atlanta, and is over 50% Black. Hispanics and Asian populations are also high here, pushing the white population to just under 25%. It remains overwhelmingly Democratic, and incumbent David Scott is Safe for re-election. Partisan rating of about D + 20.

14th District (Brown, Atlanta Area): This district comprises most of Northern Fulton and DeKalb counties, and is heavily White, Suburban, and Republican. 6th District Incumbent Tom Price is in this district, and is probably guaranteed to win this seat for the Republicans. Partisan rating of about R + 14.

Not too shabby a pickup. I’ll probably be working on South Carolina next

So, I’ve decided to start drawing some 2010 district maps, hopefully for all 43 states that use them (7 only have 1 representative, and therefore only have 1 possible way to draw them).

Though i’ve decided to try to impose a pair of rules on how they’re drawn, in an attempt to make the resulting maps look a bit cleaner than what we have currently. They are:

1. All districts must be compact. This means they should all be in roughly the same geographic area, and have decently smooth edges.

2. All districts must either
A) Follow county lines as strictly as possible
B) Follow demographic lines as strictly as possible (For example, have a district be completely a part of the Philadelphia suburbs)
C) Be a minority-majority district (as they’re very hard to draw cleanly)
or D) Interlock with another district that fits into category C

With that being said, here is a Map I’ve drawn for the State of Oregon:

Here’s a closer view of the Portland area:

Overall, this map is likely to give a 2-3-0 Spread (2 Republicans, 3 Democrats, and 0 Swings), with the 2nd (Green) and 5th (Yellow) going Republican. Each district follows county lines pretty well except the 1st, which is a mix of Portland and Salem Suburbs across Washington, Clackamas, and Marion counties, and the 5th, which cuts across the sparsely-populated Eastern Lane county

1st District (Blue): This district is comprised mostly of the Left-leaning suburbs of Portland and Salem. It’s significantly different than the current 1st, which cover most of the Northwestern portion of the state, and as a result has no incumbent (at least I think so). Partisan rating probably about D+7

2nd District (Green): This district is comprised mostly of the Conservative Eastern 2/3rds of the state, though it does also contain parts of Clackamas county and Marion county outside of Salem. The incumbent Republican however, had his home drawn into the 3rd district so this should probably not have an incumbent either. Obama only won 2 counties contained in the district, Clackamas and Marion, but the Liberal areas of each are both in the 1st district. Partisan rating probably about R+8

3rd District (Purple): This district is comprised of the city of Portland, Flood River county, and a very small part of Clackamas county. As a result, it is heavily Democratic, and Obama probably would have won about 75% of the votes here. Partisan rating of about D + 22

4th District (Red): This district stretches from Eugene to the Northwest Corner of the State. It covers most of the coast, and is Strongly Democratic. Partisan rating of about D + 9

5th District (Yellow): This district starts from the Conservative areas in the Southwest part of the state, and winds up north, including Linn, Polk, and Yamhill counties and small portions of Lane and Marion. All counties in this district voted for McCain except Lane and Marion, but Jackson, Polk, and Yamhill all had McCain performing under 50% despite winning. Still, the other counties pull this district into the Republican column. Partisan rating of about R + 9

However, there is the distinct possibility that Oregon will gain another Congressional seat in the 2010 census, pushing it up to 6. I’ve drawn a map for that possibility as well:

Another Close-up of the Portland Area

Overall, this map should give a 2-3-1 spread (2 Republicans, 3 Democrats, and 1 Swing district), and it’s generally more Geographically compact than the previous one.

1st District (Blue): This district is similar to the current one, as it cover the Northwestern part of the state and Portland’s Western Suburbs. It remains generally Democratic in nature. Partisan rating of about D + 7

2nd District (Green): This district is also similar to the current one, but it loses part of Southwest and Southcentral Oregon and gains most of Clackamas and Linn counties. As a result, it’s a little more closely divided than the current district. Partisan rating of about R + 7

3rd District (Purple): This district is smaller and more concentrated in downtown Portland, and is therefore even more Democratic in nature than the above 3rd District. This is easily a Democratic Party Safe seat. Partisan rating of about D + 25

4th District (Red): This district is based in the Conservative Southwest, and is comprised entirely of 2008 McCain counties. This is easily the most Conservative district in Oregon. Partisan Rating of about R + 11.

5th District (Yellow): This district is based in Eugene Oregon, and covers the Democratic-leaning parts of the Central Oregon Coast. It also stretches up to include Salem and the surrounding area, and it’s reliably Democratic. Partisan rating of about D + 10

6th District (Cyan): This is the swing district, and it covers the outer Portland and Salem areas. The Washington and Tillamook County parts of the district lean Democrat, while the Marion, Polk, and Yamhill parts lean more Republican. Partisan rating of about R + 1.

(the Program I used to create these maps is available here Credit goes to Dave Bradlee, who despite being a Kossack, writes good code)