Comments on: Deconstructing NY23: what happened; what’s next

By: Hooah_Mac

Hooah_Mac — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 06:22:47 +0000

It will be a primary, but the support from the local parties will be pretty solid. The chairs will not choose the candidate, but they will throw all their weight to a single conservative.

By: Hooah_Mac

Hooah_Mac — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 06:03:36 +0000

That won’t happen. It will be Doug if he wants it, or another conservative. The county chairs learned their lesson (well, except for the one that is about to lose her job) from this fiasco.

By: Hooah_Mac

Hooah_Mac — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 06:01:06 +0000

Your thoughts are pretty much in line with mine. I am trying not to deluge the site with my posts so it will be a few days before my final analysis is up. I have more details, but you pretty much nailed it.

By: Flagstaff

Flagstaff — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 18:23:45 +0000

reported on Monday. Either the election results or the poll is suspicious.

It shouldn’t even enter our minds to think this was a defeat of any kind. Whether Hoffman is our candidate next year or it’s somebody else, the candidate will be more conservative than Owens and will win with any sort of competent campaign.

By: randy streu

randy streu — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 18:16:59 +0000

he’s not necessarily a bad choice for 2010. IF. Hoffman still has the baggage I mentioned above, and it won’t go away by 2010.

But here’s where the real brutal honesty comes in.

The real problem I see is a split in the vote during the primaries if there’s more than one or two fairly solid Conservatives. If we all want to vote values, but can’t come together on WHICH candidate to pull for, we could end up with another squish (see McCain, John).

This is where the CPNY and other minor parites could really come in and help. If they can come together and push one candidate over the others (by basically allowing the candidates to present themselves WELL in advance of the primary) and then make a reccomendation, it MAY be enough to get party Conservatives to come together and make a unified decision.

As it is, if there is more than one Conservative on the primary ballot again, I don’t see another way for Conservatives to come together — and that leaves us with a very strong likelihood that we end up with another Dede almost by default.

By: kyle8

kyle8 — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 17:57:25 +0000

He entered a race as a third party, a man with no organization and no name recognition, and he got 43% of the vote!

If he runs again as a republican, he would have the party and the name recognition.

By: JoeG

JoeG — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 17:07:50 +0000

But you broke the ice….

Hoffman’s most visible accomplishment is having the moxie to go the third party route and doing it convincingly enough to

almost

pull this off.

But that alone may not be enough. I sure there is a talent pool there among experienced state legislators that can also run. As you note, there are the other finalists from the non-primary that deserve a good look.

I believe the most important part is for the national party to keep their fingers out and let the local R party sort this out to avoid this whole fiasco again.

By: civil_truth

civil_truth — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 16:42:37 +0000

I seem to recall a RedState diary within the past week that mentioned another candidate (whose last name started with “M”) who had attracted what appeared to be a majority of the district leaders until Dede got forced upon them. I don’t know if some of the no vote on Hoffman was to prevent him from being the incumbent in the 2010 primary.

I seem to recall your ranking some of these other candidates prior to Dede being selected.

So it’s not clear that Hoffman will (or should) be the 2010 Republican nominee. What I hope is that the 2010 primary will not see conservatives splitting the votes and letting another leftist sneak in to the nomination.

So what is the best strategy for NY-23 Republican conservatives re primary 2010 and how will the reorganize to be effective. This is where your NY knowledge could help us out.