Debt Limit Surrender


Members of the Tea Party and the conservative movement need to be prepared for some serious disappointment if news reports are correct. News reports have emerged indicating that that “dollar for dollar” cuts to spending promised as part of a grand bargain to increase the debt ceiling may be pro-rated over 10, 20 or even 25 years. It is easy for politicians to promise future cuts to spending when many of these politicians cutting the deal will be long gone from Washington, DC.

Politically this deal is very attractive for incumbents of both parties. A $2.4 trillion debt limit increase would negate the need for a further increase in the debt limit until after the next Congressional and Presidential election. This level of a debt limit increase would protect House and Senate incumbent Republicans and Democrats from any further politically difficult votes before they have to face the voters in November of 2012.

Furthermore, the deal may include cuts over a time period that will exceed the 10-year budget window of the Congressional Budget Office making these cuts unenforceable. If an agreement is reached on a $2.4 trillion increase in the debt limit for $2.4 trillion in cuts over 10, 20 or 25 years, politicians would get the double benefit of not having to vote on increasing debt over the next year and a half and they can claim they cut spending by $2.4 trillion. This deal may make for a good talking point for politicians of both parties, but it would turn out to be bad deal for the American people.

Vice President Biden is leading bipartisan and bicameral negotiations on a comprehensive deal to increase the debt limit. These negotiations include Vice President Joe Biden, Senators Jon Kyl (R-AZ), Max Baucus (D-MT), Daniel Inouye (D-HI), and Representatives Eric Cantor (R-VA), Jim Clyburn (D-SC) and Chris Van Hollen (D-MD). Another meeting is scheduled for later this week.

The AP reports that Democrats are pushing for tax increases as part of the deal.

The Biden group is slated to have its sixth meeting Thursday at the Capitol. Kyl said the topics will include revenue increases sought by Democrats and a proposal to cap spending at a fixed percentage of the economy, say 20 percent. Republicans have promised to block any revenue increases, however, and the administration opposes the spending cap. If tax increases are not included in any deal, conservatives should not be all that happy, because this may be the bone that the negotiators throw to conservatives to buy a massive increase in the debt ceiling.

According to CQ and the AP, a deal is close.

CQ Reports today that Senate Republicans are working out a deal for $2.4 trillion in cuts that will be punted way into the future.

Senate Republicans are backing House GOP demands that a debt limit increase be paired with an equal amount of spending cuts, a formulation that suggests any bargain that would settle the issue through 2012 will require at least $2.4 trillion in budget reductions over the next decade or longer.

Some simple math is in order to understand this potential “deal.” If the deal were to cut $2.4 trillion over the next 10 years, then the cuts would be $2.4 in Fiscal Years 2012-24 equaling $240 billion a year. If the deal were to cut $2.4 trillion over 20 years, then the cuts would be $2.4 trillion in Fiscal Years 2012-2034 equaling $120 billion a year in cuts. Any window longer than 20 years is laughable and would amount to an empty promise by politicians today. It will be difficult, if not impossible, for Congress to enforce these promised cuts on a future Congress.

It is important to understand how Congress defines “cuts” to spending. If negotiators use an artificially high budget baseline to calculate spending over the next 10 years, then these promised cuts may not be cuts at all. For example, President Obama’s $3.7 trillion budget plan for Fiscal Year 2012 would have created $8.7 trillion in new spending, $1.6 trillion in new taxes and add $13 trillion in new debt over the next 10 years. It is easy to “cut” spending if Congress uses a bloated baseline to measure these promised future cuts.

It seems immoral to ask of future generations to shoulder the burden of $2.4 trillion in debt over the next two years in consideration for cuts to government spending over the next 10, 20 or 25 years. This is classic generational theft. A mortgage may be taken out by politicians in Washington today that the American people will have to pay off over the next few decades.

What options would make the Tea Party movement and conservatives happy? Well there are many ideas on the table.  The most promising idea is Cut, Cap, and Balance. The House Republican Study Committee has deployed a Cut, Cap, and Balance plan including three elements.

  1. Cut – We must make discretionary and mandatory spending reductions that would cut the deficit in half next year.
  2. Cap – We need statutory, enforceable caps to align federal spending with average revenues at 18% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), with automatic spending reductions if the caps are breached.
  3. Balance – We must send to the states a Balanced Budget Amendment (BBA) with strong protections against federal tax increases and a Spending Limitation Amendment (SLA) that aligns spending with average revenues as described above.

The Senate is expected to take up this call and to push for a Cut, Cap, and Balance Pledge.  Expect conservative Senators to push over the next few weeks for a coordinated effort to force Congress to pass a Balanced Budget Amendment, an 18% cap on spending and cut programs today.  This may be the landing place for conservative Members of Congress.

There will be members who don’t support any increase in the debt limit if Congress can’t pass dramatic and significant reforms.  They believe the debt limit is a de facto balanced budget measure and is a great alternative to Cut, Cap, and Balance. These conservatives believe that not increasing the debt limit would force the federal government to live with the constraints of what revenues can be raised through selling of government assets and incoming tax revenues.

The bottom line is that any deal that spreads the cuts over a long period of time would be tough to enforce and may turn out to be an empty promise. Conservatives want budget reform, entitlement reform and specific cuts to spending if a debt limit increase idea is allowed to move forward.


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50 Comments Leave a comment

If this is true, than I don't know how I'll keep up the fight

earlgrey (Diary) Wednesday, June 8th at 9:10PM EST (link)

Vote them ALL out

izoneguy (Diary) Wednesday, June 8th at 9:17PM EST (link)

Don’t ever let them hold office for more than one term.

The point cannot be made often enough: Modern liberalism, as embodied in the Obama presidency, is the defender of the status quo. And the status quo is a road to economic ruin. Political forces cannot redistribute the wealth that the economic system does not produce.

 

This isn't the fight

punditpawn Wednesday, June 8th at 10:09PM EST (link)

As soon as Bush-boy Boehner became speaker, this Congress was toast.

The fight is in 2012, and there is no way Boehner will remain speaker if taxes or the debt limit are traded for future sweet nothings.

It’s quite clear in hindsight where many of Bush’s Congressional problems came from, and Boehner and Cantor are their names.

 

They are just kicking the can

teridavisnewman (Diary) Thursday, June 9th at 8:02AM EST (link)

Business as usual. Kicking the can down the road so they can continue to take their bribes from their lobbyist pals while they bleed Main Street dry with taxes and entitlements. Hopefully the abomination that is Obamacare will be declared unconstitutional in the not-to-distant future and we can focus on tossing out these 435 idiots that are intent upon bankrupting America.
We must have new representation in Washington if we want to have a future as a nation. Keep the pressure on your Congress(wo)man and let them know we are not kidding.

Teri Davis Newman
2010 Republican Nominee for Congress
2012 Candidate for Congress
12th Congressional District of Illinois
www.terinewman.com

 

Debt Surrender

308winchester Thursday, June 9th at 9:36AM EST (link)

I agree that we need Term Limits a AND new leadership in both Houses of Congress.They just keep playing patty cakes with people who want to destroy the American system. They seem to be very comfortable just trying to manage Americs decline instead of taking the Bull By the Horns and restoring Americas Consitutional greatness. We need a true conservative for President and replace the leadership in the GOP and Congress as soon as we take over in 2012.

 
 

So lets all understand...

unclefred (Diary) Wednesday, June 8th at 9:19PM EST (link)

The Senate has always been the weaker link in all this. Call them and lean on them and CALL THE HOUSE. If we keep the heat on the house the Senate is just noise.

The rule must be that if they raise the debt ceiling they must cut spending in the same time frame. So if the debt ceiling will carry the government for 6 months they must cut spending by that much in 6 months.

With several very staunch exceptions the Senate has always been more disconnected from the country. We need to remind them. Changing a culture is hard, and we all must be prepared to keep the heat on them to change.

Same Time Frame - Right!

adair Thursday, June 9th at 2:06PM EST (link)

They’re all doing some blathering about demanding a Balanced Budget Amendment to the Constitution. Unfortunately, that requires 2/3 of both Houses of Congress, and then 3/4 of all the States to ratify it. How long will that take???

They must not base the debt ceiling increase on getting Dems to agree to an Amendment.

Obama’s budget was so roundly dismissed, it is obvious that the spending cuts have to take us back to 2008 levels.

 
 

We need to make a pact on this site

mboyle1988 (Diary) Wednesday, June 8th at 9:24PM EST (link)

To personally take out every single congressman, Democrat or Republican, who votes to increase the debt ceiling without IMMEDIATE and equivalent cuts to spending. I don’t care how they talk. I don’t care if we worked to get them elected. They will all get primaried, and we will call them to let them know they will be primaried. With me, anyone?

With me, anyone?

izoneguy (Diary) Wednesday, June 8th at 9:28PM EST (link)

Oh, absolutely, positively, 110%

The point cannot be made often enough: Modern liberalism, as embodied in the Obama presidency, is the defender of the status quo. And the status quo is a road to economic ruin. Political forces cannot redistribute the wealth that the economic system does not produce.

Already on board

unclefred (Diary) Wednesday, June 8th at 9:52PM EST (link)

And my congressman has a town hall tomorrow I will be sure to explain it to him

 

I'm 110% with you.

rickbull Wednesday, June 8th at 11:48PM EST (link)

We have to get this country on a sustainable path, or we’ll all be eating catfood–that is if we can still get catfood.

WE ARE THE 53% (who actually pay taxes).

There's always cats...

sccrenny (Diary) Thursday, June 9th at 12:15AM EST (link)

when the cat food runs out.

When I look at Barack Obama I don’t see black. I don’t see white. I do, however see RED! It’s the same color I see when I look at Pelosi, Reid, ACORN, SEIU…

Precinct Delegate since 2010

You just go ahead and try it....

acat (Diary) Thursday, June 9th at 12:37AM EST (link)

Cats have fur and claws.. you don’t. Better hope it’s warm where you live.

Mew

——
self-portrait

Caveat Suffragator

Have to agree

powertothepeople (Diary) Thursday, June 9th at 12:52AM EST (link)

Cats are just to scrawny, tough, and smell too much like rotten tuna. Big dogs would taste much better and would sustain you for some time. That or the neighbors horse.

If it ever comes to the point animals look like dinner, I will be the first to offer to share my wife’s Shih Tzu to all my hungry friends on RedState. If she reads this or my kids tell her about this, I dare not sleep again.

obama

My pit bulls would like a word with you. [nt]

acat (Diary) Thursday, June 9th at 1:10AM EST (link)

——
self-portrait

Caveat Suffragator

My five mixed breeds would, too. -nt-

rickbull Thursday, June 9th at 7:38PM EST (link)

WE ARE THE 53% (who actually pay taxes).

 
 
 
 

Old Becker family recipe for

mbecker908 (Diary) Thursday, June 9th at 12:52AM EST (link)

cat stew.

1 carrot
1 onion
1 cat
1 blender
The carrot & onion are optional.

Purrrrrfect ! nt

Bobcat51 Thursday, June 9th at 1:32AM EST (link)

The left wing intent is to destroy the existing society and replace it with a society of its own design.

 
 
 

Eating cat food my foot....

teridavisnewman (Diary) Thursday, June 9th at 8:14AM EST (link)

Eating cat food my foot….Americans will be eating the cats–just like they do in China. I lived in Asia in the 80s and believe me, they do eat cats and dogs over there. I went to many markets where there were dogs and cats in crates waiting to be purchased for Sunday dinner or the Chinese equivalent. Don’t think it can’t happen here–when the government collapses and our way of life is gone, it becomes survival time. I planted a vegetable garden this year for the first time in my life and I also learned how to do home canning. I have the household on an austerity plan and we don’t buy anything we can’t eat. I’m sorry my car is a GM product (bought in December 07 just before the government takeover) as I have serious doubts about it’s durability. I wish I had the Ford I traded in on it;

Teri Davis Newman
2010 Republican Nominee for Congress
2012 Candidate for Congress
12th Congressional District of Illinois
www.terinewman.com

Stockpile of . . .

jetman Thursday, June 9th at 1:52PM EST (link)

7 indoor cats and at least 4 feral outdoor cats, so I guess I can eat for at least a little while b/c I have the required blender (and maybe a carrot or onion or two). That will be a last resort, AFTER spending all the money I will NOT be sending to the Republican Party in 2011 and 2012 on regular food. The cats are all healthy and plump. Yummmmm.

 
 
 
 

Term limits

rmowen Thursday, June 9th at 6:27AM EST (link)

These are exactly the term limits that our founders built into the law! AKA – performance appraisals known in their employment contracts as elections. I have been in for quite some time.

 

with me on this?

blairblaster3 Thursday, June 9th at 10:02AM EST (link)
 

Agree

clarkm Thursday, June 9th at 10:02AM EST (link)

You should post this as a policy proposal on w ww.whitehousevoice.com

 
 

Talk about politically tone deaf

Kyle-MI (Diary) Wednesday, June 8th at 9:26PM EST (link)

Does anyone really think this cop-out will satisfy any of the voters and especially the Tea party people?

This is what happens when you get too many lawyers in congress. In a court of law, most judges would technically rule that this was OK. In the court of public opinion however no one is going to buy this.

 

Opposed to deal

dajeeps (Diary) Wednesday, June 8th at 9:28PM EST (link)

I am additionally opposed to the cap part. Some of the reasons are obvious, like the fact that statutory caps on anything, like debt, for instance, are subject to ceiling increases. But the other not so obvious is that if something is capped at a certain level, it will guarantee that the level will always be at the cap. There will be no way to get less, even if less is all that is warrated. They will still throw around and use our own money to remove our liberties and stomp all over the states, individuals and business entities alike.

I believe that the more proper way to address out of control government from which the spending and debt problems arise is to deal directly with the problem of out of control government and the majority of the spending a debt problems will be taken care of with states sharing more of the responsibility as was intended by the constitution.

There are many areas where congress has delegated power to the executive, with the best of intentions and the public good in mind, that may have served their purpose in a bygone era, but are no longer useful or effective for anything other than to be tools to further a political agenda and are not subject further vote in congress. They end up more like menaces to society when abused and should be transfered to states or ended completely.

Outside of that I believe that constitutional amendments should be focused on Article III and clarification of the commerce clause, so that the police power that has been usurped from the states is returned to them and is no longer subject to being stripped by backdoor judicial amendments to the constitution.

…”I would quarrel with both parties and with every individual of each, before I would subjugate my understanding, or prostitute my tongue or pen to either.”
–John Adams

 

If they cave...

persiflage Wednesday, June 8th at 9:51PM EST (link)

I sense a “Ceau?escu moment” looming.
Folks get fed up with a government that won’t listen, won’t do the things it is told to do, and worst of all, persists in doing things that harm them.

“A republic, if you can keep it…” – B. Franklin

 

Oh no,

persiflage Wednesday, June 8th at 9:55PM EST (link)

didn’t like that chracter – sorry.
I mean, of course, Ceausesco

“A republic, if you can keep it…” – B. Franklin

 

I grew up in Boehner's district

tea4me Wednesday, June 8th at 10:13PM EST (link)

And all my family stll lives in it. It this happens, Boehner needs to be primaried out. If that doesn’t work, I wouldn’t even care if a Dem wins. Just get him out and see what the next Speaker in does.

 

Here we go again

Guru115 Wednesday, June 8th at 10:26PM EST (link)

Immediate tax increases and spending cuts “When we get around to it”

 

I thought dollar for dollar was for this budget

snowshooze (Diary) Wednesday, June 8th at 10:30PM EST (link)

Not over 2 years, not over 20…

 

Screwed again....

lgbpop Wednesday, June 8th at 10:41PM EST (link)

I bet the people in the districts represented by these turncoats and RINOs are glad they believed the promises these people spouted so piously last November – anything, anything to hang onto their seats. What a lesson to learn yet again. In 2012, these people have to go.

 

Hold on a minute

Adjoran (Diary) Thursday, June 9th at 2:45AM EST (link)

Your sources for the details are Congressional Quarterly and the Associated Press. Don’t bet the farm on their accuracy.

I do agree no cuts beyond the 10-year window can possibly be considered, even though reducing the base will have an effect enduring beyond that. No serious person believes it impossible that a further increase in the debt limit might be sought within 10 years anyway.

If tax increases are to be on the table – and in our fiscal situation, we just can’t say they aren’t – they should be found NOT in increases in marginal rates but in eliminating deductions. Cutting out the deduction for state and local taxes is a great place to start – it is a clause which mandates taxpayers in lower-tax states pay more to subsidize the freer spenders.

If the Democrats agree to that, I say give them an increase to 39% for the $250,000+ earners. But not until the deduction is scratched!

I see where you are coming from, but

The_Gadfly (Diary) Thursday, June 9th at 6:18AM EST (link)

the reality is that our economy can’t support taxes in excess of 20% of GDP over an extended time. Perhaps two or maybe three years, then the adverse effects start to really kick in. Not a good idea when there are already enough adverse effects working on the economy. There’s only one way to jump start this Jimmy Carter 2.0 economic malaise: Reaganomics 2.0. Cut spending, cut regulation, and remove the boot of the bully pulpit from the American economic throat.

 
 

They had the chance

popster Thursday, June 9th at 7:20AM EST (link)

to fix the problem (the progressive/socialists) and they have shown us they don’t give a fiddlers whatever about anyone but themselves. It is almost too late to right the wrongs done by politicians over the last 75 years.

 

They had the chance

ag8tor Thursday, June 9th at 7:49AM EST (link)

over the last 6 years and failed to do anything about it. These clowns like Pelosi, Reid, Franks, Dodd et. al. have made such a mess with their drunken sailor aproach to fix the economy that they have screwed it up even more. Does anyone seem perplexed that the same ones who have gotten us into this mess are the same ones we expect to fix it? Not happening. This is just another example of a do-nothing congress that only cares about themselves. We as a people have not been the subject of their dealings for quite some time. I’m referring to Reps as well as Dems. Term limits would go a long way towards getting back on track but it is not the total answer. As long as the masses continue to not care until an election comes up then we will remain stuck in neutral. That’s why those of us who do keep up with what’s happening in DC MUST continue to get the word out whether they want to hear it or not.

Drunken Sailor?

Cargosquid (Diary) Thursday, June 9th at 9:42AM EST (link)

HEY! I take offense at that, having been a drunken sailor!

We only spend OUR OWN MONEY!

 
 

Balance Budget Amendment a Bad Idea

brimstone Thursday, June 9th at 8:23AM EST (link)

A balanced budget amendment is a very bad idea. What makes anyone think that a Congress that doesn’t obey the Constitution now will change their ways and obey an amendment? Publius Huldah says it best here.

http://publiushuldah.wordpress.com/category/balanced-budget-amendment/

I have never been convinced by that argument

kyle8 (Diary) Thursday, June 9th at 8:29AM EST (link)

There are various ways such an amendment can be written.

OF course it would be more effective if it also contained authorization for the line item veto as well.

“Nothing works like freedom, Nothing succeeds like liberty”
Kyle

BBA re-write

brimstone Thursday, June 9th at 4:43PM EST (link)

@kyle8
How would you re-write the BBA to solve the problems with it pointed out by Publius Huldah?

I don’t see how the BBA can be rewritten to fix those problems. Why not just stop all the unconstitutional spending?

WHy not just bell the cat? NT

kyle8 (Diary) Thursday, June 9th at 11:35PM EST (link)

“Nothing works like freedom, Nothing succeeds like liberty”
Kyle

So you don't have an answer

brimstone Friday, June 10th at 9:26AM EST (link)

You would rather push it under the rug because you can’t see the problems it will cause.

 
 
 
 
 

I am sick to death fo this Bipartisan Bull Stuff.

ihateliberals Thursday, June 9th at 9:08AM EST (link)

The Republicans are in charge of the House right now and they should be dictating what is going on just like the Democrats did when they were in charge. As a matter of fact there were no deliberate bipartisan legislation during the Democrats tenure. It is time for our Republicans to lead not be led. i knew as soon as Boehner was elected Speaker of the House that we were in trouble. then his actions, his crying etc have just been devastating to the Party. His very first major battle in the House he lost bg time because the Democrats found out they just had to wait him out and he would cave in. The RINO’s of the Party aren’t gong to be happy until they split the Party in two. This will destroy any chance for a Republican victory not only in the White House but Congress as well. The career Politicians like Boehner are the ones that will love this Debt ceiling bill of saving $2.4 trillion over 10, 20 or 25 years. First off that will never happen because things change, Party control changes etc. If you give the Democrats a debt ceilig of $2.4 trillion more they will fill tht void as fast as possible and then be asking for more. They will never stop.

 

The amount of cuts must equal or exceed the cap and both must occur during the same time frame..

Old_Crow (Diary) Thursday, June 9th at 9:28AM EST (link)

1. Non negotiable.
2. No support for any republican or candidate that doesn’t sign on.
3. Primary challenges for anyone who supports stretching out the time frame of the cuts.

“Enlightened statesmen will not always be at the helm.” — James Madison

AMEN to . . . .

jetman Thursday, June 9th at 1:57PM EST (link)

1.
2. and . . .
3.

That’s all folks!

 
 

Establishment Republicans

ltcoldon Thursday, June 9th at 9:56AM EST (link)

The problem with the Republican Party is the Republican Party paying Carl Rowe to telll you how to get elected won’t cut it with me any longer.I will not pay the RNC to elect individuals I don’t support.Principled conservatives I will support.The Republican leadership has not thus far not earned my trust .

 

Did anyone really think

jiminga Thursday, June 9th at 11:48AM EST (link)

our Congress or president would actually do the right thing for our economic survival? Silly us! As long as they’re all working to be re-elected nobody will support the painful solutions necessary. Collapse is imminent as there is no political solution possible.

The time for personal solutions is now. Take care of your own by growing food and providing your own version of personal/family security.

You know I’m right.

 

It's Bush's fault

anencephalic Thursday, June 9th at 12:12PM EST (link)

Sounds like the republicans during Bush’s run.

 

That's why NOT raising the debt limit is the only solution

danielbdp (Diary) Thursday, June 9th at 12:15PM EST (link)

The great majority of our elected politicians are in a sense just like Mr. Weiner – they are DEBT JUNKIES who CANNOT and WILL NOT control their impulsive behavior to always spend more of OUR money.

We MUST send them to rehab now! Stand with Michele Bachmann and any other sane person who is still fighting to convince our House Republicans NOT to raise the debt ceiling! WE KNOW who needs that spending, and it’s not US!

Stand today with the TeaPartyPatriots and send Congress your message to stand strong on not raising the debt limit here: http://act.theteaparty.net/

Citizens Against Government Waste also has its own petition(s) and campaigns here: http://www.cagw.org/

Fill as many petitions and call as many Congressmen as you can; we MUST keep up the pressure! Grumbling amongst ourselves will achieve very little!

This is the only way they will get to seriously cut spending NOW, before it’s too late to save the economy. And those politicians with the courage and conviction to stand for doing the right thing, will “strangely” find themselves amply rewarded by a grateful and smart public!

Speaker Boehner: I truly hope you’re reading our posts and give a damn for our country!

 

I am sick to death of this Bipartisan Bull Stuff.

ihateliberals Thursday, June 9th at 12:45PM EST (link)

The Republicans are in charge of the House right now and they should be dictating what is going on just like the Democrats did when they were in charge. As a matter of fact there were no deliberate bipartisan legislation during the Democrats tenure. It is time for our Republicans to lead not be led. i knew as soon as Boehner was elected Speaker of the House that we were in trouble. then his actions, his crying etc have just been devastating to the Party. His very first major battle in the House he lost bg time because the Democrats found out they just had to wait him out and he would cave in. The RINO’s of the Party aren’t gong to be happy until they split the Party in two. This will destroy any chance for a Republican victory not only in the White House but Congress as well. The career Politicians like Boehner are the ones that will love this Debt ceiling bill of saving $2.4 trillion over 10, 20 or 25 years. First off that will never happen because things change, Party control changes etc. If you give the Democrats a debt ceilig of $2.4 trillion more they will fill tht void as fast as possible and then be asking for more. They will never stop spending money they don’t have.

 

Hard decisions

spolson Thursday, June 9th at 2:53PM EST (link)

Our encumbants need to realize that this is the the hard decision and we won’t forget.