Rasmussen Reports is showing Maine Senator Susan Collins has more than doubled her lead against her Democrat challenger Tom Allen, 53-38:
Maine Senator Susan Collins has more than doubled her lead over Democratic challenger Tom Allen in the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of voters in the state. The Republican incumbent is ahead 53% to 38%.
When “leaners” are included, Collins leads 55% to 40%.
The new numbers mark a big improvement for Collins, who had just a seven-point lead and earned below 50% support from voters in July. She now has her highest level of support since April.
Rasmussen has been notoriously Democrat-leaning this cycle, and explained on their blog a few months back that they are over-sampling Dems by roughly 9%.
Perhaps the most discouraging aspect of these numbers is that they come a week into Allen’s television ad campaign. The Allen camp has attempted to spin the lackluster performance of his campaign by saying things will change markedly once the ‘TV wars’ begin. Unfortunately, Rasmussen disagrees.
Collins has led in every poll since this race began. Last month, Maine-based Democratic pollster Patrick Murphy showed Collins with a 26 point lead over Allen. Rasmussen is the only poll that has shown Allen within 10 points, reinforcing the contention that they are oversampling Democrats in Maine.
Now that Rasmussen is showing this race to be a blowout, it will be interesting to see the reaction of the already-desperate Tom Allen campaign. A few weeks ago, they were caught red-handed disguising a female tracker to sneak into a GOP event, complete with wig and makeup.
Watch for the Allen camp, Communications Director Carol Andrews in particular, to try to shirk the poll results off as unreliable. Just last month, Andrews was quoted extensively in the Maine media making the case that Rasmussen’s previous 7 point Collins advantage was a clear example of the viability of Allen in the race. His precipitous decline over the last month will most likely end Andrews’ love affair with Rasmussen Reports.
Moe Lane
Steve Maley
Dan McLaughlin
Neil Stevens
Daniel Horowitz
Any Impact?
dld1717 (Diary) Friday, August 15th at 4:30PM EST (link)I wonder what impact this race may have on Presidents Race in Maine
I doubt McCain can win Maine but Maine is one of 2 states who go by congressional districts and McCain could possibly win 2nd congressional district and get an extra electoral vote.
This Seems Part and Parcel of a Wholesale Swing Towards The GOP Recently
IJB Friday, August 15th at 8:46PM EST (link)It’s not a coincidence that all of these Senate numbers are all improving for the GOP at the same time, nor is it a coincidence that the Congressional Preference numbers have declined from D+15 to about D+8 over the past few months.
The high water mark for the Dem was about Feb. when Obamamania was in full bloom.
Since them, Wright broke, Barry stumbled to a Dem primary victory (barely!), Nancy Pelosi & Barry both declared that they were fine and dandy with $5 gasoline (“And, BTW, we’ll allow new drilling, like, never!”), and Barry then preceded to fill the last two months with empty banalities while the world went to Heck! and Russia tried to start World War III.
When you consider all that, even ol’ McCain and a somewhat discredited GOP start to look pretty good to the average voter.
This is good news
Adam C (Diary) Saturday, August 16th at 7:37AM EST (link)But this statement is just false: “Rasmussen has been notoriously Democrat-leaning this cycle”
First, their Presidential Tracker has been about 2-5 points to the right of all other pollsters.
Second, Democrats do outnumber Republicans both in the country and in ME. The question is by how much.
Third, even if anyone actually thought Rasmussen was biased toward the Ds (and it’s run by an R IIRC), it sure isn’t “notorious.”
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I disagree
rozinante (Diary) Saturday, August 16th at 8:29AM EST (link)Actually I disagree. Rasmussen explained themselves that they are oversampling Democrats in these polls by roughly 9%. When you run their cross-tabs (at least for the maine race) they show that to be almost exactly the case. For instance, two months ago,Rasmussen showed Collins increase her lead among independents by a whopping 18% in one month, yet her overall lead decreased. This is mathematically impossible in Maine, where Independents are the largest group of voters in the state. It can only be possible if Democrats are oversampled.
They are not sampling based on voter registration, they are sampling based on voter registration +9.45% Democrat, apparently in an attempt to compensate for the Democratic wave sweeping the nation.
Up here, they are notorious indeed for this, since there is no Democratic wave. Dems have had a one percent increase in party registration since 2006, despite supposed ‘record breaking caucuses’.
IMHO, it’s not the place of a pollster to predict turnout anyway, they are supposed to gauge the opinion of the public, and turnout is a different measure altogether.
Also, check their crazy numbers in Oregon and Minnesota. They are definitely off the beaten path in terms of Senate races this year.