Update: WIth today’s poll in IL-17 showing Schilling up by 13 over the Democratic incumbent Phil Hare, it could be argued that there may be some other Democratic seats not listed here that could be on the radar now as well.
Before I get into this, I should let you know what the fonts mean. These are all based on current trends. Boldface means that the GOP is sure or has a great shot of winning the seat. Italics mean the GOP has a 40-50% shot. No alteration of font means less than 40% chance of winning. I would like to make this kind of a participation type project as I know there are plenty of Redstaters that have a good gauge on what is happening in their districts around the state. Please, PLEASE contribute any observations, input, or ideas how things are going in your neck of the woods. 139 seats are targeted for pick-up seats with an additional 12 GOP seats targeted to hold.
Alabama: 2nd (Martha Roby is a formidable challenger to Bob Bright.)
Arizona: 1st, 5th, and 7th and 8th. The 7th is a secondary target. D+6 district. It is hard to imagine those congressmen holding those seats with Obama suing the state of Arizona over its highly popular immigration bill.
Arkansas: 1st, 2nd, and 4th.
California: 11th, 18th, 20th, and 47th. I remind you that Costa and Cardoza (in 18 and 20) had their votes bought by Obama letting the water being turned on so farmers could water their crops in those districts. Loretta Sanchez has a very tough fight on her hands but I’ll keep it blue for now.
Colorado: 3rd, 4th, and 7th.
Connecticut: 2nd, 4th, and 5th
Delaware: At Large (Republican Mike Castle has vacated his seat and is running for Biden’s senate seat)
Florida: 2nd, 8th, 22nd, 24th and 25th. (It is amazing that Rotheberg left out Boyd’s seat as Boyd voted for Obamacare and Boyd is in a R+6 district)
Georgia: 2nd, 8th and 12th
Hawaii: 1st (Djou has a great chance at holding this seat for the GOP come November. This race can’t be neglected.)
Idaho: 1st
Illinois: 8th, 10th (incumbent GOP member is in a D+6 district), 11th, 12th, 13th, 14th, 17th (Shocker. A just released Magellan poll buts the GOP challenger Schilling up by 13 over Hare in this D+3 district). Illinois is interesting. A lot of fluidity in those districts.
Indiana: 1st, 2nd (Donnelly voted for Obamacare), 8th and 9th (I don’t think Baron Hill will be able to defend his healthcare vote here in this R+6 district).
Iowa: 3rd
Kansas: 3rd.
Kentucky: 3rd and 6th.
Louisiana: 2nd (GOP Hold. Cao might have a hard time holding but any seat is worth defending)and 3rd
Maine: 1st and 2nd.
Maryland: 1st, 2nd, and 3rd
Massachusetts: 2nd, 3rd, 5th, 6th, and 10th
Michigan: 1st, 6th (GOP needs to hold), 7th, 9th, 11th (GOP needs to hold).
Minnesota: 1st, 3rd (GOP needs to hold), 7th.
Mississippi: 1st, 4th
Missouri: 3rd, 4th
Nevada: 3rd
New Mexico: 1st and 2nd
New Hampshire: 1st and 2nd
New Jersey: 2nd (GOP hold), 3rd, and 12th, and 13th.
New York: 1st, 2nd, 4th, 9th, 13th, 18th, 19th, 20th, 21st, 22nd, 23rd, 24th, 25th, 27th, 29th.
North Carolina: 2nd, 7th, 8th, 11th, and 13th.
North Dakota: At large
Ohio: 1st, 5th, 6th, 9th (Marcy Kaptur), 10th, 12th (GOP hold), 15, 16th (John Boccieri), and 18th.
Oklahoma: 2nd
Oregon: 4th and 5th
Pennsylvania: 3rd, 4th, 6th (GOP hold), 7th, 8th, 10th, 11th, 12th, 15th, 17th.
Rhode Island: 2nd
South Carolina: 5th
South Dakota: At large (Herseth-Sandlin is the (D) incumbent)
Tennessee: 4th, 5th, 6th, and 8th
Texas: 15th, 17th, 20th, 23rd, 25th, 27th, 28th, 29th.
Utah: 2nd
Virginia: 2nd, 5th, 9th, and 11th.
Washington: 2nd, 3rd, 6th, and 8th (GOP hold)
West Virginia: 1st, 3rd
Wisconsin: 1st (GOP hold), 3rd, 7th, and 8th.
If these numbers hold then the GOP would pick up 59 60 seats (Thanks to skepticalmi for pointing out me missing MI-1) 32 additional seats have a decent chance of winning. So it could be argued that for the time being, 92 seats could flip if the GOP were able to win all of the decent chance seats. One thing I have not mentioned. I wouldn’t see a few of those seats that have a less than 40% chance of winning flip to the GOP. No Democratic incumbent is safe this election cycle.
KnightsofMalta
Dan Spencer
Moe Lane
Steve Maley
Dan McLaughlin
Caleb Howe
Fluid Levels
lukematthews (Diary) Tuesday, July 20th at 4:20PM EST (link)I completely agree with your estimation as to this election cycle. There are too many intangibles in play that may turn this into a rout. The negative attitude of the Democrats, the positive attitude of Republicans, the shear rage of many independents will all play deeply into this mid-term election. If the Democrats continue to remind us why we are angry, it could be significant factor and they are hellbent on getting Crap and Tax, Card Check, and Immigration Deform passed.
Perhaps the worst case scenario for us is the electorate forgetting why their mad or Obama coming up with a lot of ‘creative’ voters.
Beware the "October Surprise".
eastbaylarry (Diary) Tuesday, July 20th at 9:12PM EST (link)No telling yet what form it will take, but I think we can count on it.
2+2=4 dammit!
The big states to watch for
RealQuiet (Diary) Tuesday, July 20th at 5:27PM EST (link)Texas – I think more house seats could flip there big time. There hasn’t been a whole lot of polling but congressional incumbents like Henry Cuellar and Ciro Rodriguez should be taken out. Chet Edwards is already facing an uphill fight.
Pennsylvania – There are some races there that are somewhat disappointments for the GOP. Districts 4, 8, and 10 would have thought to be money in the bank even though Altmire voted no for Obamacare in CD-4. Scott Murphy and Chris Carney should be very vulnerable but it seems that their opponents haven’t done a whole lot of fundraising.
Illinois — Given what happened today with the poll coming out of CD-17, Melissa Bean and a few others should be getting mighty nervous.
New York — Not many are talking about this state but there are a lot of seats here that stand a good chance of flipping red.
Ohio — The GOP is doing well here but it would really make my day if they won CD-5, 6, 9, and 10 based on how they are doing elsewhere in Ohio.
Wisconsin — If Russ Feingold loses, then it is entirely possible that the GOP could pick up 3 seats here.
Florida — If Rubio wins and these Dems in GOP and purple districts get their butts handed to them, it will be a long night for the Democrats.
Tennessee and Virginia are looking to deliver a beating to the Democrat congressional delegations from those respective states.
Michigan
skepticalmi (Diary) Tuesday, July 20th at 7:16PM EST (link)On the MI races:
the 1st and 7th districts should definitely be at least italicized, and probably bolded. The 1st is an open seat in a lily-white district who’s current Congressman famously burned them on our most important moral issue. I don’t think people are going to forget that easily, and Stupak’s betrayal will make it that much easier for Benishek (or whoever ends up being the nominee) to convince the voters that they won’t be able to trust the Dem nominee to do it again. As for the 7th, Shauer won 49-47 in 2008, and he’s been a reliable vote for Pelosi. Assuming the Reps can unite behind the eventual primary winner (this was an issue in 08), he should be pretty easy pickings.
The 6th is safe. The Dem candidate is the same as in 08, where he lost by 20 points. Somehow I doubt he’s going to make up a 20 point swing when the generic swing will be 10-20 points the other way.
DOH!!! I missed that one!
RealQuiet (Diary) Tuesday, July 20th at 9:45PM EST (link)How in the world did I forget to bold that one??? Wow. Thanks! Revising now.
New York
proudgop (Diary) Tuesday, July 20th at 10:25PM EST (link)I live in New York and can tell you there is a lot competitive races I just fear because NY GOP has basically rolled over and Cuomo is anointed next Gov, Gillibrand is cruising, Schumer is up and has 25 mill COH, that Republicans on bottom of ticket might be hurt
I hope not because I do think we are definitely taking back Open Massa Seat, Hall is in trouble, Murphy, Accuri, and Bishop on Long Island too
McHanhon and Massei are long shots but vulnerable too
Its RI 1 that is race to watch by way