Target Lists for the 2010 House and Senate races and the 2012 Senate races

Tuesday, March 23rd at 12:32PM EST

9 Comments

Recommenders: chbroussard (Diary), pilgrim (Diary), IJB

Here’s your 2010 and 2012 congressional race primer. Feel free to share it with everyone you know.

Via Wikipedia and the Cook Partison Voting Index: There are links in the Cook index that you can click on for the district in your area.

For a great write up on the 2010 House races, click here.

For the 2010 Senate races, click here.

For the 2012 Senate Democrat incumbents up for election, click here.

Targets of 2010 House Democratic Incumbents by congressional district. Remember, just click on the Cook Partison Voting Index and click on the hyperlinks for your district or districts of interest in the state you live in:

Alabama: 2nd

Alaska: At large (GOP hold, Young might have some problems with some legal trouble)

Arizona: 1st, 5th, and 8th. The 7th is a secondary target. D+6 district.

Arkansas: 1st, 2nd, and 4th.

California: 11th, 18th, 20th, and 47th. I remind you that Costa and Cardoza (in 18 and 20) had their votes bought by Obama letting the water being turned on so farmers could water their crops in those districts.

Colorado: 3rd, 4th, and 7th.

Connecticut: 2nd, 4th, and 5th

Delaware: At Large (Republican Mike Castle has vacated his seat and is running for Biden’s senate seat)

Florida: 2nd, 8th, 22nd, and 24th

Georgia: 2nd, 8th and 12th

Hawaii: 1st

Idaho: 1st

Illinois: 8th, 10th (incumbent GOP member is in a D+6 district), 11th, 12th, 13th, 14th, 17th. Illinois is interesting. A lot of fluidity in those districts.

Indiana: 1st, 2nd, 8th and 9th.

Kansas: 3rd.

Kentucky: 3rd and 6th.

Louisiana: 3rd

Maine: 1st and 2nd.

Maryland: 1st, 2nd, and 3rd

Massachusetts: 2nd, 3rd, 5th, 6th, and 10th

Michigan: 1st (Hi Bart!), 6th (GOP needs to hold), 7th, 9th, 11th (GOP needs to hold).

Minnesota: 1st, 3rd (GOP needs to hold), 7th.

Mississippi: 1st, 4th

Missouri: 3rd, 4th

Nevada: 3rd

New Hampshire: 1st and 2nd

New Jersey: 2nd (GOP hold), 3rd, and 13th.

New York: 1st, 2nd, 4th, 9th, 13th, 18th, 19th, 20th, 21st, 22nd, 23rd, 24th, 25th, 27th, 29th.

North Carolina: 2nd, 7th, 8th, 11th, and 13th.

North Dakota: At large (Earl Pomeroy is the (D) incumbent)

Ohio: 1st, 6th, 9th (Marcy Kaptur), 10th, 12th (GOP hold), 16th (John Boccieri), and 18th.

Oklahoma: 2nd

Oregon: 4th and 5th

Pennsylvania: 3rd, 4th, 6th (GOP hold), 7th, 8th, 10th, 11th, 12th, 15th, 17th.

Rhode Island: 2nd

South Carolina: 5th

South Dakota: At large (Herseth-Sandlin is the (D) incumbent)

Tennessee: 4th, 5th, 6th, and 8th

Texas: 15th, 20th, 23rd, 25th, 27th, 28th, 29th.

Utah: 2nd

Virginia: 2nd, 5th, 9th, and 11th.

Washington: 2nd, 3rd, 6th, and 8th (GOP hold)

West Virginia: 1st, 3rd

Wisconsin: 1st (GOP hold), 3rd, 7th, and 8th.

Total number of targeted seats: 132 Democratic seats targeted for gain. 10 GOP seats for holding.

2010 Senate race targets:

Ted Kaufman (DE) Mike Castle leads strongly to take this seat over.

Roland Burris (IL) Mark Kirk has been polling well against the corrupt G man.

Evan Bayh (IN) Whether it be Coats or Stutzman as the GOP nominee, Brad Ellsworth dug his grave with his yea vote for Obamacare.

Byron Dorgan (ND) John VanHoeven will take this seat over for the GOP.

Blanche Lincoln (AR) She is looking at getting just killed in her re-elect. Been doing some major damage control.

Barbara Boxer (CA) I don’t care, just kick her out

Michael Bennett (CO) Jane Norton or Ken Buck would do fine

Harry Reid (NV) Heh

Kirsten Gillibrand (NY) Please George Pataki, run

Arlen Specter (PA) Pat Toomey wins in a walk

Patty Murray (WA) Please Dino Rossi, run

Russ Finegold (WI) Please Tommy Thompson, run

GOP Seats need to hold: Voinovich and Bonds seat’s are really the ones that I see being the most vulnerable.

Total number of Senate Democratic targets: 12

2012 Democratic and GOP incumbents:

Nelsons of Florida and Nebraska, Webb of Virginia, Casey of Pennsylvania, Brown of Ohio, Stabenow of Michigan (Michigan is trending red very hard), Tester of Montana, Menendez of New Jersey, Bingaman of New Mexico, Conrad of North Dakota, Kohl of Wisconsin, Byrd of West Virginia, and McCaskill of Missouri all look quite vulnerable. There are 13 vulnerable seats here. Also, keep in mind of a potential retirement from Frank Lautenberg of New Jersey.

GOP incumbents:

Barring any retirements, these seats look safe for the GOP.

2010 Donation priority: First to your local GOP candidate whomever it may be after the primary dust clears –> 2nd to GOP conservative candidates in your state –> 3rd to the NRCC and NRSC which comprise of the Senate and Congressional committes or the GOP itself.

Finally, remember that with what happened with the “pro-life” Democrats, it was revealed with Bart Stupak that in the end, a Democrat is a Democrat and will tow the party line. It’s just all a big show, shell game, whatever you want to call it. They will always vote through legislation and allow Democrats in red states/districts to vote to give the appearance that they are representing their constituents. There is no such thing as a moderate, Blue Dog Democrat anymore. It doesn’t matter if they try to be more conservative than the GOP candidate. When it counts, they will vote the party line and the Democratic party today is really the Socialist-Marxist party that functions under the word “Democrat”. Voting records don’t matter any more with Democrats who vote to keep in line with red state values. A Democrat is always a Democrat and will always vote as a Democrat to incrementally take away your freedom.

9 Comments Leave a comment

Thank you!

chbroussard (Diary) Tuesday, March 23rd at 1:54PM EST (link)

This is a wealth of information. Appreciate the time and effort to compile it.

Disagree with your 3rd donation priority

Tom Anderson (Diary) Tuesday, March 23rd at 2:09PM EST (link)

Don’t give to the NRCC or NRSC because they won’t support true conservatives. Instead, give either to conservative candidates directly (if you don’t know which ones, check out Erick’s suggestions) or to Jim DeMint’s Senate Conservatives Fund.

“All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing.”
- Edmund Burke

I understand danasdaddy.

RealQuiet (Diary) Tuesday, March 23rd at 2:16PM EST (link)

However, primaries usually settle this question. So look at the GOP primaries and look at each candidates stated positions and previous public service and voting record if he/she has one. If your candidate doesn’t win, that’s the breaks. The healthcare debate really opened our eyes. An 80% Republican is better than a Democrat to paraphrase Ronald Reagan. Donate to the candidates of your choice in the primaries and hope they win. If they don’t, support the GOP candidate. Thanks for the info on DeMint’s fund!

Agreed, RQ

Tom Anderson (Diary) Wednesday, March 24th at 3:44PM EST (link)

The strategy needs to be:
The conservative in the primary, and the Republican in the general (as long as it’s not a Scozzafava clone).

“All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing.”
- Edmund Burke

58 Senators in January 2013?

joshgosser (Diary) Tuesday, March 23rd at 2:45PM EST (link)

I was planning a similar rundown on the Senate races, and here is what I came up with:

We have a great chance to get seven this year in Delaware, Indiana, North Dakota, Arkansas, Colorado, Nevada, Pennsylvania.

I think between Illinois, California, and Wisconsin, we can pick off one. (Washington is in play if Rossi gets in.)

So 49 after November looks pretty good, in my opinion.

Looking ahead to 2012, Florida, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, West Virginia all look like solid pick-up chances — meaning 58.

But Scott Brown would face a tough re-election battle, taking the total down to 57.

There are, however, two other races — Wisconsin and New Mexico — that we have a shot in, especially if Paul Ryan finally runs for the Senate.

58 is very doable. And there will be a few shifts — such as in Florida, Ohio, and hopefully Texas — of shifting from a moderate Republican to a conservative one.

Thank you for the run-down on the House races.

Conservative in Topeka, Kansas.

NewtGingrich360

An Outside Target for CA Would Be CA-51, and Corrections

IJB Tuesday, March 23rd at 3:33PM EST (link)

CA-51 is represented by Bob Filner, and it’s a D+8 district with a large Hispanic population. But in a large enough ‘wave’ year, the 4 you listed would go to us, and then Filner’s would be the 5th most likely to go.

Also, you are missing all of the AR & IA districts from your list – I’m assuming this is just an omission, as we have a good chance to take IA-03 (Boswell) and AR-01 (Berry-retiring), and a decent chance to take IA-01 (Braley) and AR-02 (Snyder-retiring), and maybe even AR-04 (Ross).

I’m not too worried about 8-9 of your 10 GOP ‘hold’ districts, though I notice that you don’t list LA-02, which I’m interpreting to mean that you think Cao is already gone (which puts us at -1, before even counting any of your others…).

Yes to everything you said IJB :)

RealQuiet (Diary) Tuesday, March 23rd at 3:59PM EST (link)

putting this together required quite a bit of work so holes are likely to be found and I appreciate you pointing them out. I only targeted Democrats in GOP friendly districts to Democrats in districts D+10 or less. Seniors and independents are going to make a huge red wave in the fall. Combine this with a fired up GOP and you have cataclysmic results. It’s hard to determine what effect this will have but it is bound to be huge.

Daria Novak, Cong. Candidate CT-2

darianovak Tuesday, March 23rd at 11:28PM EST (link)

I am glad to see Red State recognize my race in the 2nd Congressional District in Connecticut as tageted. It is winnable. I have over 400 campagin volunteers now, am ready to launch several headquarters operations covering the 65 towns, and I have a very strong ground campaign with volunteers ready to hit the streets. This is a “perfect storm” type of year for a welll-organized grass roots campaign. I urge others to consider it. People want to get involved and feel like they are helping fix what is broken. I hope you will consider donating to my Congressional campaign as Connecticut helps Take Back Congress! Red State mentioned 3 of our 5 Congressional Districts in CT. I think there may be a surprise in another one of our Districts announced within the next week or so. We may be taking back 4 of the 5 seats in CT. In our ground war in New England, don’t overlook the loyalty of the people in favor of the candidate with more money. I’m a conservative Republican, former Reagan appointee, and I am not backing away from my positions. People want principled, strong candidates. I hope you’ll help me win my race. My web site is novakforcongress.com Thanks!

Daria Novak

Nice post

proudgop (Diary) Tuesday, March 23rd at 11:36PM EST (link)

We already have the primaries over in Illinois and North Dakota

we have great congressional candidates in:\

ND State Rep Beg to take out Pomeroy

IL KInzinger to take out Halverson
Hultgren to take out Foster
Walsh to take out Bean
Dold to hold seat for Kirk

these are 5 candidates you should all take look at. Ne nice for GOP to take house back and it happening big right in Obama’s back yard

OT Its RI 01 (open Kennedy seat) even though RI 2 is more republican technically