has outspent Cristie 3 to 1 so far

Corzine continues to have upside-down favorables: 33%-60%. Christie is nearly even: 45%-44%.

If a guy has unfav rating of 33% why do another 5% vote for him or is it possible Corzine is down to 33% really?

1) The Obama Narrative was going to be about a split GOP…
But Hoffman is in the lead in NY-23, and money has been pouring in. The RINO Skuzzyfava is now the real spoiler, and NRCC will only help the Dem by giving her money. If Hoffman pulls it out it will be a triumph of the conservative heart and soul of the GOP over the soulless RINO/R-uber-alles operatives AND a repudiation of the Obama agenda AND a pushback to Kossacks. Hoffman is poised to win this race, and Newt and Co. will do a service acknowledging the mistake and unifying behind him.

2) The Obama Narrative on Deeds was ‘he screwed up because he didnt listen to us’ … so they will fob off Deeds impending loss (which we hope is a blowout) as a one-shot deal, never mind that trending-blue Virginia will reverse from where it was going the past few election cycles.

3) That leaves New Jersey. If the very-unpopular Corzine can bring in Obama and pull off a win, it would give Obama’s halo some shine (The Narrative would be “Obama still popular enough to save Troubled Incumbents in Blue States” not much but something). But if NOT … then the thrill really is gone, and The One will have lost The Narrative.

Since the Christie race is the ONE RACE that is not in the bag (to close to call with Christie up by 4), THE CHRISTIE RACE IS NOW THE RACE THAT WILL SET THE NARRATIVE FOR 2010. IF CHRISTIE, HOFFMAN, AND MCDONNELL ALL WIN … GAME OVER FOR THE BOLD, LEFTIST OBAMA AGENDA AND “THE NARRATIVE” OF GREATNESS.

Bravo to all those who “Get it” and see these 3 as a trifecta in a CONSERVATIVE comeback.

Two key things need to happen:

1) We need to get over the “electibility hump” such that voters surmount the inherent bias and understand that this is the rare case where the 3rd party candidate has a legitimate case. That’s a really tough obstacle but there is increasing hope that it’s being surmounted,

Continued movement in polls and indications that Hoffman will clearly defeat Scozzafaca and even better if they show him in first place – if there are strong indications that’s happening, that will help a lot to get people past that hump – especially among conservative-leaning independents who may well hold the key to the outcome of this race.

2) Voters have to not lose their nerve and revert to usual habits when they actually get into the voting booth.

But the trend lines – at least from RedState reports – are favorable.

You are correct that in terms of the national coverage, the NJ governor race is going to get the most media attention and spin – and that may affect Congressional votes.

But in terms of Republican internal battles, NY-23 is shaping up to be more critical.

If Christie, Hoffman and McDonnell all win?

WOW!!! Just the thought of it gives Chris Matthews tinglies all up and down his leg or maybe just a painful numbness.

The NRCC should be working night and day on getting that California fellow over the finish line, instead of wasting everybody’s time and money in New York working AGAINST the Conservative movement. A clean sweep next Tuesday would be just UNREAL huge, if we pull that off it would probably instantly end the Health Care debate, as the Dems would jump off that sinking ship faster than you could say ‘Happy days are here again!’.