more later on that!

Let us pray for a 1994 style landslide in 2010…

I agree this will require a major crisis – as it unfortunately always does to get Republicans in power. But we conservatives have ceded the party to Dem Lites and big surprise, real Dems are running the country.

And I no longer have faith that whatever party is governing, we won’t be in the same mess. The mediocre personalities in politics for the power far outweigh the true public servants as exemplified by Palin, Jindal, DeMint, Coburn, etc. Politics now attracts exactly the mental and moral mediocrities that we DON’T need running things.

They will now control the patronage, they will control the media and message like never before, They will rewrite the election laws and gerrymander. You can write off all the states in the Southwest after the massive immigrant amnesty.

It will take a major economic crises to unseat them.

Then even if that happens you have to wonder if the new GOP elected officials won’t just morph into democrats the way the last bunch did.

I recollect a tale about Clinton running reelection for Gov. and failed. He immediately called his father and questioned, ‘Dad, but I promised roads and infrastructure…and I delivered’. While in office, he ended up taxing the public of AK so much so, that yes, although the pledge of a public servant was filled, the consituents were unhappy. Clinton’s father answered, ‘Son, the voters don’t care about your roads, your infrastructure. They just care about getting up every morning with food and going fishin”.

I sincerely believe this drove Clinton’s thinking. And it was encapsulated by, ‘It’s about the Economy, stupid’.

There’s truth to that, in as horrible and twisted as it may be.

Obama has a timeline to turn this over. Either Axelrod is supremely confident that this thing can be turned around in two years, that they play the martyr card now to set relative expectations low early and end up gleaming or they are going to miscalculate and will ultimately feel the wrath of the American voter, and their impatience. I tend towards the latter.

I, for one, am not rooting for our financial fallout for the next two years. But I must admit, with regards to this Adminsitration-elect, I’ll have Schadenfreude running up and down my leg if it happens.

Incumbents however, are not untouchable, as South Dakota proved 4 years ago by ousting Democratic floor leader Tom Daschle.

On a good note though, freshman senators are still relatively easy to defeat, and the Dems have 8 up for election in 2012 in swing states that are winnable.

As for the open seats. A combination of a strong Republican year and good candidates should be very helpful. We’ll definitely win Kansas, I think Sebelius is incredibly overrated by the media blockheads. We’ll win Missouri with someone who is a solid conservative like Sam Graves. We can win Ohio with a guy like Rob Portman who’ll be strong in Southwest Ohio. And statewide Florida Dems don’t have much to brag about outside of re-electing Bill Nelson. We’ll beat them in Florida.

Heck, we might even pick up Illinois if the primary is so divisive that backers of the losing candidate refuse to support the Democrat. I don’t think Clinton’s seat is off the map until we know who is appointed. If it’s a dynasty pick, then that seat is also on the table.

And Dems in Republican states may be more vulnerable than we’d think. But a big part of the progress is the attitude that we’ll win.

But the thing is, all but two of those pick-ups came from open seats, IIRC.

Defeating incumbent Senators, even in ‘wave’ years, is extremely difficult.

It’s possible to take out ‘baby chick’ office holders like, back in the day, Wofford of PA, or current people like Burris, and whoever replace Biden and Clinton.

But defeating entrenched incumbent Senators is extremely tough. Even in a very anti-Dem year, it would be tough to take out more than 2 or 3 Dem incumbents.

So, unless there’s a sudden wave of Dem retirements (unlikely), retaking the Senate is very, very unlikely in 2010, as scarlos points out below.

As it is, we’re going to have to waste time and resources defending *our* open Senate seats…

Retaking the Senate will most likely take place in 2012, as seats in Montana, Nebraska, Missouri, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Minnesota and Wisconsin are easily within reach, and add to whatever we come out of 2010 with.

But in order for this to happen we need to unify as an opposition. We need another person like Newt to rally the county’s discontent with the Policies of the President and transform that into election results. Being a presidential election year as well, this would presumably be the GOP nominee, and alot therefore rides on who gets the nod next time.

seven seats wouldn’t win the Senate but it’d sure enough pucker up ole Harry’s carp whole wouldn’t it?

The House, OTOH, is theoretically doable, provided there is a sizable anti-Obama, anti-Dem wave, a la 1994.