McCain wins electoral vote barely due to upset in Pennsylvania, but looses popular vote.

I really admire your optimism, but I cannot share it.

Things seem to be going McCain’s way this week, which is good and, at least somewhat predictable. Pundits, left and right, are quick to criticize voters as uninformed and easily manipulated. And while that is true with some voters in certain occasions, I think a lot of voters do possess an innate common sense. They can see through BS if it clear and obvious. And Obama’s BS, for all its window dressing, is becoming pretty obvious.

If the financial crisis hadn’t happened, if McCain was even closely matched to Obama in funds and if the MSM was trying to be even remotely balanced, I would agree: McCain by 5-10%. But given all these structural disadvantages, it’s going to be close. Agonizingly close

Nonetheless, I do think that unless something really damaging comes out about McCain or Palin before Tuesday, McCain will pull it off, narrowly. My prediction:

Popular Vote:

McCain: 50%; Obama 49%.

E/C:

McCain: 275-290; Obama 248-263.

Then, sit back and watch the fireworks start.

Though I would be ill-advised to share it.

I agree…McCain/Palin by 5-10…early numbers are coming in and they will win the popular vote and EC…substantially…

but I keep reading about Obama’s huge ground operations (2x or more as many field offices as JMac in states like PA, VA, IN).

Even if McCain is starting to surge, I don’t think it will be enough. I expect the Obama ground game to have every black person in Pennsylvania to vote and probably almost every drippy college kid in the state.

I think R’s will get decent enough turnout to help avoid massive losses in the House and keep Senate losses a little below filibuster level. But if I had to bet, I don’t think McCain will be able to pull it out.

Man I love the optimism, but 5-10 points? If McPalin wins, it will be a squeaker for sure. He will be fortunate to hold all Bush states and I think Colordado may be gone along with Iowa, which means he needs PA.

To win by that much, McCain would need 53% to 55% of the vote. When was the last time any presidential candidate got that percentage? I know that neither Bush 43 or Clinton did it (he never broke 50%) Did Bush 41 ever get that kind of juice?

I would imagine Reagan did. Ah, the good ole days.

electoral college:
M-274
O-264

Obama wins popular vote..McCain eakes out victories in Virginia, Ohio, Missouri, Indiana, Colorado and Nevada.

It will be a fun night and early morning.

A margin of .05 or .1% is more like it in my estimation. Either the Obamunist GOTV/Voter Fraud effort will work or not. If it works, BHO wins and fairly handily. If the past is again prologue, it won’t work, or at least not well, and McCain will win by the narrowest of margins, perhaps winning only the EC and losing heavily in the popular vote.

Either scenario is a prescription for a nighmarish two years, maybe four years. If BHO wins handily, lefties being lefties, they’ll aim for the moon and try to get the whole leftwing wish list done in the first few months. If we still have a right to exist after that, we can organize a reaction to that and take back one or both bodies in Congress in ’10. If McP wins narrowly, the screeching will start immediately that his victory was procured by fraud. The Congressional actions, perhaps even impeachment efforts, will begin immediately. They will make it impossible for a McP Administration to govern or even make appointments. As much as I don’t like some of them and though I usually recommend firing everyone immediately, McCain would be well advised to try to keep as many GWB appointees as possible because he will not be able to get the advice and consent of the Senate for their replacements. He may well find himself having to use WH staff as de facto agency heads and having merit system employees in acting status running the day to day operations. A thoroughly unpleasant prospect since most of the merit system employees are Democrats.

I’m focused on reality. The only way to win is to Turn out, Turn out, Turn out the vote for McCain/Palin.

So, enough, go back to work.