As best as I can tell, the McCain campaign’s strategy for winning in the electoral college has altered significantly over the past month.

Previously, the conventional wisdom held that he would attempt to win all of the Bush 04 Eastern and Midwestern States except for Iowa, and then pick up two out of three of Nevada, Colorado, and New Mexico. Conceivably, if he lost Nevada and New Mexico, he could also win Colorado + 1 electoral vote in Maine’s relatively conservative 2nd District to reach the magic number of 270.

The new strategy, however, is different. It still relies on holding onto Ohio and Florida, Missouri, and North Carolina (states which are all within in the margin of error in most polls). But with Colorado, New Mexico, and even the former GOP stalwart of Virginia showing serious problems, McCain appears to taking a bold new strategy: waging an all out war for Pennsylvania.

Based on what I’m seeing in Virginia, where the current McCain effort seems perfunctory at best, his campaign seems to be preparing for the eventuality of Virginia turning blue. And perhaps even working under that assumption.

This Virginia problem, I realize, is fairly bewildering to my GOP friends outside of the state–after all, this is a state that Bush won by 8 points in 2004. Unfortunately, however, despite whatever legitimate gripes are raised about the accuracy of current polling, the changes in Virginia over the past four years are very real. You can see them with your own two eyes.

In pastures and on farmland where’d you’d have seen giant Bush/Cheney signs four years ago, there are now vast housing developments populated with government workers who commute to DC. Furthermore, our African-American population is much greater than the national average, and we have many, many, universities which are not only hotbeds of liberal politics but from which the Democrats are drawing armies of activists who spend their weekends marching up and down the streets, knocking on doors, etc.

Does Virginia have a large military population? Is the majority of the state conservative? Yes and yes. But these demographics are fairly static–they certainly haven’t exploded out of all proportion in the way the North Virginia suburbs have recently.

While I believe that the state of Virginia is probably undergoing an extremely rapid transition from a reliably red state to at least a light blue one, the transformation is not yet complete during this election cycle. So while I’m disappointed to see that we’re possibly conceding the state, I don’t believe McCain’s strategy of attempting to swap Pennsylvania (with its 21 EV) for Virginia (and its 13 EV) is an unreasonable gamble.

Despite what current polling might say in Pennsylvania, the demographics of the state are arguably much for favorable than those in Virginia. It seems far more likely that we could see significant movement towards McCain there, as a result of these demographics, than in the state of Virginia.

Pennsylvania has an older, and more stable, more blue-collar population. It has about half as many African-Americans as Virginia, and by some estimates, it’s over 50% Roman Catholic.

It’s still, I must say, an uphill battle. It’s been twenty years since Pennsylvania voted for a Republican presidential candidate, but a concentration of campaign resources there, strategic use of Governor Palin who shares a strong cultural connection with a large percentage of its residents, together with Obama’s “clinging to guns and religion” gaffe and Murtha’s branding them as racists and rednecks, could all make a difference. There’s a real opportunity there at least that should be pursued.

According to what I believe to be the current McCain victory scenario, this is how election night could look (focusing on the battleground states). It would be nerve-racking to say the least.

• 7 EST. Polls close in Virginia and New Hampshire. Both states are called for Obama sometime thereafter. Democrats pop their champaign corks, believing that seals the deal.

• 7:30 EST. Polls close in WV, NC, OH. Sometime thereafter, all three states are called for McCain. “Whatever,” the Democrats say, and open more bottles.

• 8:00 EST. Polls close in the Florida Panhandle, Missouri, and Pennsylvania. Sometime within the next hour–shocker! Florida, Missouri, and Pennsylvania have all gone for McCain. Shock and horror spreads through the Democratic ranks. They’re all drunk now. So am I.

• 9:00 EST. Polls close in Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico, and Wisconsin. All five states are called for Obama. Democrats renew their celebrations. Republicans groan.

• 10:00 EST. Nevada and Iowa polls close, with Iowa immediately being called for Obama. All eyes turn to Nevada as the results start coming in. The networks hesitate for a very long time before calling the state. Everyone in the country is drunk. Nevada is called for McCain, pushing him to 273 electoral votes.

• Midnight: Governors around the country call out the National Guard.