More on Poll Panic: A Little History


Why it's far too soon to worry (much)

A quick tour of liberal blogs seems to indicate that gleeful Democrats are ready to pop their champagne corks and start celebrating an Obama victory, considering the current movement in head-to-head polls. Meanwhile, some Republicans seem caught somewhere between fatalistic resignation and despair. But not so fast. It’s a bit early yet to start moving assets offshore and training our tongues to say “President Obama.”

The current situation: today’s Gallup Tracking Poll shows Barack Obama moving out to an 8 point lead on John McCain, while the Rasmussen poll shows a 6 point lead and the Hotline/FD poll shows a 5% Obama lead. According to the current Real Clear Politics average, Obama leads by 4.3%–although that includes a GW/Battleground Tracking poll that’s a couple days old now and shows McCain up by two.

Discounting the GW/Battleground poll, I think it safe to assume that McCain is currently trailing by something like 5-7 points. As I pointed out in a previous diary, I believe that the last two weeks have very nearly constituted a “perfect storm” for Obama, and the current lay of the political landscape (as a result of Wall Street panic) is very unlikely to remain the front page status quo for the next five weeks.

While it’s obviously better to be ahead than behind, a little historical context about presidential polling is in order.

First, a handful of examples related to the instability of polling in the final weeks of presidential elections.

  • At around this time in September of 2000, a Newsweek poll showed Al Gore leading George Bush by a 52-38 margin. We’ve yet to see ANY poll showing anything close to a 14 point lead for Obama, and we know how the 2000 election turned out.

  • At approximately this point in the race in 2004, polls showed George Bush with a lead in most polls that looked slightly greater than Obama’s current lead. (8 in the CNN/USAT/Gallup, 8 in Pew, 7 in the Battleground, 6 in ABC/WJ). By the time the election rolled around, the race was back within virtually every poll’s margin of error, with a RCP average of +1.5% for Bush.

  • In 1996, the CBS/New York Times final pre-election poll predicted an 18% Clinton victory. This was 9.5% greater than the actual result.

I’d also like to point out that when Rasmussen (my personal favorite pollster) put out his final poll for the New Hampshire Democratic primary in January, he showed Obama at 37% and Hillary Clinton at 30%. Clinton did nine points better than that, winning 39-36. The RCP average for this contest was also wrong–predicting an 8.3 Obama victory. Reuters, for instance, predicted that Obama would win by 13 points. They were fully 10 points off. This raises real questions about Obama’s ability to deliver in actual votes what he’s predicted to receive by the polls.

Of course, past performance is never a predictor of future results. All that I’m sure of is that a 5-8 deficit in September polls is not quite as terrible as some might initially think, considering how they’re appearing in the midst of a very bad economic situation.

Had I only been following the news–without ever peeking at the polls–I would have guessed that Obama was currently ahead by 15%. At least. Considering that he’s not, and that something like 20% of likely voters have still not made up their minds, I think it far too soon to predict with any degree of confidence how this election will actually turn out.


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Do you have a link on that Newsweek poll?

CrabCakes (Diary) Sunday, September 28th at 3:57PM EST (link)

I know it’s hard as hell to find pre-2004 polls online, largely because major news sources were just beginning to put their information online at the time. The only Newsweek polls I could find for late September had Gore up by 5 among RV’s but down by 1 among LV’s.

Being a poll junkie myself, I’m always looking for new bits of data to bookmark, so of course I’d be happy to add the poll you cite to my list.

 

Thanks for the reminders....

DrOldSchool (Diary) Sunday, September 28th at 4:23PM EST (link)

It does provide some hope for things to come, but it needs to start with a much clearer strategy from the McCain camp. The trend is not in our favor, and we need to stop that first, and quickly.

Once again, Palin may be able to bail him out a little bit on Thursday with a good appearance in the debate.

But we need to see an aggressive positive campaign right now on energy independence, tax/spending cuts, and and how the bailout negotiations from the House GOP helps “Main Street” (since that seems to be the working theme now). Attacks need to be substantive on Obama’s lavish spending increases, not things that come off as “mean” or are on fringe issues.

“Is it a third party we need, or is it a new and revitalized second party, raising a banner of no pale pastels, but bold colors which make it unmistakably clear where we stand on all of the issues troubling the people?”

- Ronald Reagan, 1975 Speech to CPAC

 

He'll never be President Obama to me.

c17wife (Diary) Sunday, September 28th at 4:24PM EST (link)

Not from my lips. He’ll just be Barack.
For 8 years I have watched the left show disrespect to President Bush by calling him all kinds of foul things.
Well, you know what they say about paybacks.
Nope, if the worst comes on Jan. 20th, he’ll just be plain old Barack.

Duty is ours, outcomes belong to God.~Mike Pence

Agree, but he will be a great

dbecraft Sunday, September 28th at 4:30PM EST (link)

Community Organizer for the left!

I can only hope that it does not take the country down with him… Keep hoping that most people are smarter than that but am beginning to have my doubts.

Formally known as Deagle… “Golf is a way of life…”

Here

PSDA (Diary) Sunday, September 28th at 4:40PM EST (link)

I was looking at these graphs right here..

The numbers are somewhat hard to see (for me, anyhow), but the poll I cite is from mid-Sept, not late Sept. Sorry for not being more clear.

Thanks for the link!

CrabCakes (Diary) Sunday, September 28th at 4:44PM EST (link)

I’ve added it to my bookmarks.

 
 
 
 

Given that we live in a 6-8 hour news cycle

Illinicon (Diary) Sunday, September 28th at 5:04PM EST (link)

I think looking at any poll at this point or really anytime before 2 weeks to go in an election is rather pointless. For example, both Chicago papers are saying Rezko is singing to the feds about Blago. I am sure that will be getting alot of national press time through blogs and talk radio. Then on Thursday you have the Veep debate in which Palin will likely, in part thanks to the campaigns mismangement of her, exceed expectations and there is a 50-50 chance of Biden committing a bad gaffe. It would not surprise me if this time next week Obama’s lead is down to 3-4 points. However, that does not change the fact that this race is in Obama’s favor according to historical standards and that McCain needs to start hitting Obama hard on 3 things before the next debate:

  1. His involvement with the GSEs
  2. His involvement with ACORN
  3. His “truth squads”

My Potus shortlist

declared candidates:

1. Tim Pawlenty
2. Herman Cain
3. Gary Johnson
4. Rick Santorum

among declared and rumored candidates:

1. Rick Perry
2. Tim Pawlenty
3. Rudy Giuilani
4. Herman Cain

 

I know I've been a little negative lately......

Andy Smith (Diary) Sunday, September 28th at 5:04PM EST (link)

….and I’m trying to stay positive. But the fact remains that McCain has a pretty steep uphill climb in the last 40 days.
The one thing that keeps my faith is that this election has turned on dimes. Look at the convention bumps, and how the economic crisis has given Obama an advantage. Something that favors McCain could happen as well to tilt everything in his favor.
However, I’m not rooting for a disaster. Unlike our Democrat counterparts, I would rather not see a terrorist attack or economic meltdown to favor a political candidate.

“Let us have faith that right makes might, and in that faith, let us, to the end, dare to do our duty as we understand it.”-Abraham Lincoln

 

I know I've been a little negative lately......

Andy Smith (Diary) Sunday, September 28th at 5:05PM EST (link)

….and I’m trying to stay positive. But the fact remains that McCain has a pretty steep uphill climb in the last 40 days.
The one thing that keeps my faith is that this election has turned on dimes. Look at the convention bumps, and how the economic crisis has given Obama an advantage. Something that favors McCain could happen as well to tilt everything in his favor.
However, I’m not rooting for a disaster. Unlike our Democrat counterparts, I would rather not see a terrorist attack or economic meltdown to favor a political candidate.

“Let us have faith that right makes might, and in that faith, let us, to the end, dare to do our duty as we understand it.”-Abraham Lincoln

 

I know I've been a little negative lately......

Andy Smith (Diary) Sunday, September 28th at 5:05PM EST (link)

….and I’m trying to stay positive. But the fact remains that McCain has a pretty steep uphill climb in the last 40 days.
The one thing that keeps my faith is that this election has turned on dimes. Look at the convention bumps, and how the economic crisis has given Obama an advantage. Something that favors McCain could happen as well to tilt everything in his favor.
However, I’m not rooting for a disaster. Unlike our Democrat counterparts, I would rather not see a terrorist attack or economic meltdown to favor a political candidate.

“Let us have faith that right makes might, and in that faith, let us, to the end, dare to do our duty as we understand it.”-Abraham Lincoln

 

This is no time to panic or give up

RMJ (Diary) Sunday, September 28th at 9:48PM EST (link)

Good post PSDA. We need more level-headed comments like this instead of self defeating hysteria.

This election IS NOT OVER.

WE CAN STILL WIN!

This is the most unusual presidential election in HISTORY.

It is not over yet.

Keep the faith, or as Dan Rather would say “Courage”.