Mike Ross (D AR) Retiring

Monday, July 25th at 12:45PM EST

11 Comments

Recommenders: gawken (Diary)

Another so called blue dog democrat is retiring and this time it’s 6 term incumbent Mike Ross of Arkansas. A very good pick up opportunity for republicans

11 Comments Leave a comment

Some actual information....

Darin_H (Diary) Monday, July 25th at 1:04PM EST (link)

1. It’s the 4th CD in AR
2. He’s the most senior member of the AR delegation (wow!) elected in 2000
3. A+ rating from NRA
4. Co-sponsored HR 3, the No Taxpayer Funding for Abortion Act
5. Voted for the repeal of Obamacare
6. Won 58-40 in 2010
7. Wants to be AR Gov (maybe why he’s not running again, so he can spend the following 2 years going for gov).

Although he’s a blue dog, I don’t know if it’s going to be a pick up opportunity for a conservative. But you know what, we can’t get it if we don’t try. It’s obviously going to be easier than if he was running for reelection.

A visionary coward says that anger can be power, as long as there’s a victim on TV – Flat Top, Goo Goo Dolls

Interesting....

Repair_Man_Jack (Diary) Monday, July 25th at 1:08PM EST (link)

The seat reminds me of AL-5. Conservative electorate. Moderate, “Blue Doggish” Dem Rep. Al-5 didn’t go GOP from the end of WWII until just this last election. AR-4 will be no automatic pick up.

Mr. Obama is pretending that an economic “recovery” is underway when he knows damn well that the banking system is just blowing smoke up the shredded *** of what’s left of that economy – James Howard Kunstler

39%

proudgop (Diary) Monday, July 25th at 1:14PM EST (link)

The percentage Obama received in district and it’s been made slightly more republican as result of redistricting.

Of course it will

cordpt Monday, July 25th at 1:15PM EST (link)

This is going to be a +62 McCain district. If this isn’t a good pick up opportunity, what is it?

The Blue Dogs are finito. They’re now reduced to a dozen or so with half of that being California reps who should be in the Progressive caucus.

I dunno

Darin_H (Diary) Monday, July 25th at 1:27PM EST (link)

McCain might have pulled 62% in 2008 (good percentage for how bad that year was for us), but 2 points – 1 – they reelected Ross in that same year (though he was unopposed) and 2 – they reelected him in a great conservative year, 2010 by a 58-40 margin.

We should run someone, we should give it all we got as a pickup opportunity, but we should realize that it’s no gimmie.

The R president nominee should pull 65-70% next year, I just hope we can limit the crossover votes.

A visionary coward says that anger can be power, as long as there’s a victim on TV – Flat Top, Goo Goo Dolls

In this case, 2010 only matters if the R was good..

acat (Diary) Monday, July 25th at 1:50PM EST (link)

And no, I’m not in Missouri either.

The point is, this guy ran unopposed in 2008, and if the R in the race in 2010 was an unknown or total outsider, the lack of traction against an apparently well-liked incumbent is not surprising.

This favors either a blue-dog Dem or an R… and the R – if there’s a good conservative available – has the opportunity to make the case, as was pointed out already, that “we can elect my opponent to be a minority member (blue dog) of the minority party (dems) or .. we can elect me to be a majority member (conservative) of the majority party (gop) ..”

When the ads write themselves that easily… it’s no gimme, but it’s a possibility to keep an eye on.

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self-portrait

Caveat Suffragator

That's the power of incumbency

cordpt Monday, July 25th at 1:54PM EST (link)

That’s why they re-elected Ross. He’s a good congressman who built plenty of good-will and votes conservative in pretty much every important issue. If Ross was running again in 2012, then he’d be clearly favoured to win (absent polling suggesting otherwise).

An open seat is a completely different story. Of course it’s not a given, but it’s one of the best pickup opportunities for the GOP in 2012. I don’t know the Dems bench here, but they’d really need a strong candidate vs a weak republican one to have a chance. Arkansas is trending away from them – hard.

Not disagreeing with you or acat

Darin_H (Diary) Monday, July 25th at 1:58PM EST (link)

It’s certainly an easier road with an open seat, all I’m suggesting is that we’re probably going to need to fight for it. It’s not dropping into our laps.

A visionary coward says that anger can be power, as long as there’s a victim on TV – Flat Top, Goo Goo Dolls

Agreed, Darin_H. Nothing further.

acat (Diary) Monday, July 25th at 2:00PM EST (link)

(null)

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self-portrait

Caveat Suffragator

Certainly

cordpt Monday, July 25th at 2:04PM EST (link)

It isn’t a “safe R” seat and candidates will matter. Fully agreed with that.

Smart play by Ross..

gawken (Diary) Monday, July 25th at 1:42PM EST (link)

It’s an astute move politically. Look, given the way Arkansas has been trending, he might have a tough race next time out. If you lose youe Hosue race..can you really be a viable candidate for governor? Nope

But I suspect he jsut wants t o get out of the House. Look, in the House, it’s no fun being in the minority, and he has the even bigger problem of being a very small minority within his own minority caucus..so..well played, Mike

Climbing out on a limb..look for Pryor to retire and not run in 2014..