In 2010 there are currently 37 seats in the US Senate that are going to be filled. Eight of these seats open and the other 29 have an incumbent running for reelection. I think that the GOP has a good shot at picking up all five of those eight open seats held by the GOP and picking up two of those three seats that are held by Democratic Party. I would hope that the GOP can keep all of the seats the incumbent GOP have an incumbent running for reelection and defeat nine incumbent Democrats running for reelection. If that hope becomes reality, then there will be 51 GOP Senators, 47 Democrat Senators, and two independents who caucus with the Democrats. Ten months ago I could not have imagined this to be a possibility. A lot of good things are going to have to happen, but I really believe it can be done.
Let’s break it down seat by seat, shall we.
The three open seats that are now held by the Democrats are Delaware, Illinois, and Massachusetts. The GOP can capture the Delaware and Illinois seat, and the lady from Massachusetts can be the sole Democrat in the new freshman class.
The five open seats that are now held by the GOP are Florida, Kansas, Missouri, New Hampshire, and Ohio. The GOP can keep these seats.
The really tough part will be defeating nine incumbent Democrats. The five of these nine that I think should be the least difficult are Arkansas, Nevada, North Dakota, Colorado, and Pennsylvania. The people who live in these states are willing to vote for the GOP if the time and effort are put into GOTV.
That leaves four states that will be more difficult to win, but it is still doable. The states I have in mind are Connecticutt, New York, Washington, and Wisconsin.
If the GOP can recruit Rudy Giuliani to run against Kirsten Gillibrand we can pick up New York. Rob Simmons can defeat Chris Dodd, but I think it will be a closer election than what the polls look like now to pick up Conneticutt. I think Clint Didier who played for the Redskins can defeat Patty Murray. I think that Russ Feingold who refuses PAC money can be defeated by Terrence Wall.
This is my dream freshman class of 17 new GOP members to the US Senate and 1 new Democrat. So now I will wait for incoming attacks by mobys and trolls knowing that Neil and Moe are capable of dealing with them. I realize that some may have another individual to win in a GOP Primary than I picked, and it is not my intent to argue with you about that primary. I want and I hope you want a GOP candidate to win the General Election.
Moe Lane
Dan McLaughlin
Neil Stevens
Daniel Horowitz
lady?
proudgop (Diary) Wednesday, December 9th at 8:58AM EST (link)who is the lady next to Blunt?
thanks
that lady is Sue Lowden of Nevada nt
pilgrim (Diary) Wednesday, December 9th at 9:20AM EST (link)invaluable work pil' - GC reccos - I may actually watch (instead of just listening) C-Span when Sue speaks - nt
Mike gamecock DeVine (Diary) Wednesday, December 9th at 10:54AM EST (link)Mike DeVine’s Examiner.com, Charlotte Observer and The Minority Report columns
“One man with courage makes a majority.” – Andrew Jackson
5!
E Pluribus Unum (Diary) Saturday, December 12th at 8:23PM EST (link)I’m there.
Kill the Terrorists
Protect the Borders
Punch the Hippies h/t IMAO
Ah Pilgrim, we will think positive on these possibilities.
penguin2 (Diary) Wednesday, December 9th at 9:44AM EST (link)a year ago, everyone was getting the charts out trying to see if we could get the House back, and the doors of the Senate looked dark for our side. Not so much now. Recent election results from New Jersey, Virginia and even NY_23, show not only movement, but momentum. The continued decline in polls and all things Obama and Dems, give support to your prospectus. One thing to keep in mind, is how much anti-incumbent fever is going to affect our side, as well as the other. IMO of course, that should benefit our Conservative choices in the primary runs.
Resistance to tyrants is obedience to God. – Benjamin Franklin
When Good stands up to Evil, Evil blinks. – Vassar Bushmills
Conservative Education: Suggested Reading List
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thanks penguin
pilgrim (Diary) Wednesday, December 9th at 10:01AM EST (link)It will be interesting to see how many incumbents lose in the primary, both Ds and Rs. There could be an even bigger class of freshmen Senators from the 2010 election. Normally a freshman class of Senators is around six or seven. These times are not normal, and I tripled the size.
Well, At Least You Call It A "Dream Class"
Swamp_Yankee (Diary) Wednesday, December 9th at 10:19AM EST (link)I think we will pick up about five, maybe six seats, which puts some meat on our ability to protest.
well SY you are halfway on board with this
pilgrim (Diary) Wednesday, December 9th at 11:07AM EST (link)Now all that needs to happen is for you to get a positive attitude on just five additional Senate contests.
There is no possible way that the R's will only pick up 5-6 seats in 2010
Scope (Diary) Saturday, December 12th at 3:05PM EST (link)The momentum is with us, and, against the Dems. Now, if the R’s can manage to not screw up a free lunch, I’ve read many saying we can pick up over 20 seats.
There is no possible way that the R's will only pick up 5-6 seats in 2010
Scope (Diary) Saturday, December 12th at 3:05PM EST (link)The momentum is with us, and, against the Dems. Now, if the R’s can manage to not screw up a free lunch, I’ve read many saying we can pick up over 20 seats.
Its A Thread About The Senate
Swamp_Yankee (Diary) Saturday, December 12th at 4:18PM EST (link)How on earth are we going to pick up 20 Senate seats.
Dems will rebound especially in Blue states. Obama will play superman in Illinois and the ACORN-Daly machines will probably cook up a million phony votes for him. Same for Biden in Delaware and Clinton in NY. GOP will still have to fight to save Ohio, Missouri, NH and FL. ‘Realistcially, Nev, Conn, Ark, Colo and maybe Del, ND, Ind could be picked up
you now consider a 7 seat pickup, only 4 away from my 11
pilgrim (Diary) Saturday, December 12th at 4:40PM EST (link)I lived for 57 years in Indiana, and sadly I do not see any realistic chance of Evan Bayh being defeated. Do you really think Clinton could keep Giuliani from winning in NY? Do you really think that Blago has not tarnished the Ds in IL? The only two of the eleven I picked that I have doubts about are defeating Murray in WA and defeating Feingold in WI.
to Kowalski. Scope is in error about a 20 seat pickup in the US Senate
pilgrim (Diary) Saturday, December 12th at 4:59PM EST (link)That is mathematically impossible since the Ds have only got 19 seats in total to defend. Even if we picked up every one of them we could not achieve a 20 seat pickup.
U have all seats
proudgop (Diary) Wednesday, December 9th at 10:19AM EST (link)I see we have few differences in party nominee though
still not sure who is our best candidate in Nevada is
I like your selection of Ken Buck.
NightTwister (Diary) Wednesday, December 9th at 10:36AM EST (link)Unfortunately the NRSC and John McCain are pushing Jane Norton. I didn’t recognize anyone from the CO-4 race. Did you miss that one?
The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter. – Winston Churchill
Sorry, this is Senate.
NightTwister (Diary) Wednesday, December 9th at 10:37AM EST (link)It’s minus 17 deg. here this morning and my brain is still slightly frozen. Have I mentioned yet the morons in Copenhagen talking about global warming? Bring it on, I say!!
The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter. – Winston Churchill
thanks NT, I thought you'd like that pick in CO
pilgrim (Diary) Wednesday, December 9th at 10:44AM EST (link)This is a very optimistic look at the 2010 elections in the Senate. I just think that a positive attitude is exactly what we need to embrace for this election cycle.
Norton better choice for CO
letswinsomeelections Friday, December 11th at 1:13PM EST (link)It would be unfortunate for people to not support Jane Norton. A look at her issues page shows the former Lt. Governor is a solid conservative – and she can win.
Norton is NOT the better choice.
NightTwister (Diary) Friday, December 11th at 4:36PM EST (link)Neither is she a conservative. While Lt. Gov. she pushed hard for what turned out to be the largest tax increase in CO’s history (Ref. C). She’s never run for public office with the exception of riding on Bill Owens’ coattails in his second term. She really has no legislative or executive record to know what she’d do. She’s regularly denying interviews with just about everyone, and even when she gives them she gives typical politician non-responses.
Also, she’s John McCain’s hand-picked candidate. He wasn’t successful before in stealing our water, so maybe now he wants to get his people in congress so he can try it again. He’s also stuck his nose into CO-7.
If you want big-spend Republicans like we had from 2000 to 2006, Norton’s your candidate. If you want to bring fiscal responsibility back to Washington, look to Ken Buck.
The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter. – Winston Churchill
Nicely done pilgrim-with a quibble
BlackConservative (Diary) Wednesday, December 9th at 10:49AM EST (link)My quibble is your picking of Simmons over Dodd, and Kirk in IL. Having spent time in both states, Simmonsand Kirk are RINOs in the mold of McCain and the Maine girls, and being pushed by McCain and his move to the center movement. Kirk in fact, voted for crap and trade, although now that he is facing a challenge from his right he si trying to cool off on that prospect. I’d rather let the Ds have these seats than have two more Maine girls giving bipartisan cover for the Democrat agenda.
Blessed are you when people insult you, persecute you and falsely say all kinds of evil against you because of me. Rejoice and be glad, because great is your reward in heaven.-Jesus Christ
I understand your quibble, but I disagree with your solution
pilgrim (Diary) Wednesday, December 9th at 11:03AM EST (link)The solution is not to simply cede states to the Ds that are not conservative enough. The solution I would like to see is have GOP leadership with a spine in the Senate exert pressure on the liberals and moderates to knock it off with respect to going on the Sunday morning talk shows and parroting the talking points of the Democratic Party. It is always better to be in the majority and have the problem of people on your side of the aisle being kept in line than it is to be in the minority and have the problem of getting nothing accomplished.
BR, the point of politics is to make laws that are good for society. I know some hermits...
Mike gamecock DeVine (Diary) Thursday, December 10th at 8:50AM EST (link)BR, the point of politics is to make laws that are good for society. I know some hermits that are right on all the issues but they do no good. Isn’t that what your version of the GOP would be, i.e. a wise hermit?
Read the Old Testament and you will find that this dichotomy between the liberal utopian vision and the conservative, reality based vision begins in the garden with the serpent’s promise.
It is part of human nature that some 20-30% will be liberal. They have a home in the Dem party and always will. But given the complicated party history in America as well as geography and the difficulty of selling conservatism, it is a struggle to get a simply majority of pure conservatives much less the fillibuster majority we need to actually REVERSE Obama and even LBJ and FDR policies.
Your version of the GOP would be a permanent minority that could barely get passes for the Capitol Hill swimming pool.
In certain states, if we want to govern….and that is the issue, Do you want to govern or just “be right”….we have to accept some moderates from up north, etc.
Mike DeVine’s Examiner.com, Charlotte Observer and The Minority Report columns
“One man with courage makes a majority.” – Andrew Jackson
I disagree with that GC-conservatism wins every time its tried
BlackConservative (Diary) Thursday, December 10th at 12:57PM EST (link)Why would the American people vote for Dem-lite when they can get the real thing? Its the simple choice, not an echo that will win us elections. Wasn’t that RR who won states in the Northeast and Midwest, states that the establishment wants us to believe are only winnable as long as we run liberal candidates. I say thats a farce. Redstate’s own Erick Erickson says this will be a banner year for the GOP-in the age of Obama do you want to sweep another set of big government drunken spending Repubs like we did in 1994…or principled conservatives that can and will win, and then govern and gain leadership for the Right, rather than the McCain liberal wing. If we must die GC, let it not be as men…and remember what Christ says about gaining the world and losing our soul…what is the cost of a liberal victory under the GOP brand.
Blessed are you when people insult you, persecute you and falsely say all kinds of evil against you because of me. Rejoice and be glad, because great is your reward in heaven.-Jesus Christ
BC, it's not true that conservatism always wins
pilgrim (Diary) Friday, December 11th at 12:32AM EST (link)Can you name a conservative elected to the US House or US Senate from any New England state other than New Hampshire? I can’t think of any. There have been conservatives who ran in New England, but they lost. I can’t accept your conspiracy theory that those evil establishment party insiders are all to blame for them losing.
I just went to look at a map of the 1980 election, and Ronald Reagan got less than 50% of the vote in every New England state except for New Hampshire. Some of the voters wrote in Ted Kennedy’s name instead of voting for Carter, but it wasn’t until the 1984 election that Ronald Reagan won handily in New England.
Pearce - Wilson - Udall
Swamp_Yankee (Diary) Friday, December 11th at 12:46AM EST (link)Its pie-in-the-sky optimism to assume that conservatism wins everytime. I dont mind cheerleading and optimism, but when it replaces sober analysis its just annoying. There are many races, even outside New England. The GOP went with the “real conservative, Pearce, over the highly electable Heather Wilson in New Mexico, in 2008 and Udall, a lousy candidate smoked Pearce. Wilson may have won, but Pearce had no shot.
Both Reagan and Newt's winning coalitions made necessary accomodations to northern GOP moderates - that is a fact - nt
Mike gamecock DeVine (Diary) Friday, December 11th at 8:03AM EST (link)Mike DeVine’s Examiner.com, Charlotte Observer and The Minority Report columns
“One man with courage makes a majority.” – Andrew Jackson
Just this past weekend, I was updating my spreadsheet
cardcarryingmom (Diary) Wednesday, December 9th at 12:15PM EST (link)on who I was likely going to “gift” to. I’m there on 13 of these, need to check out the others. Thank you!
PS: Can someone tell me if there is a way to save a diary, other than posting to it? I read several I would like to be able to reference, but I don’t comment on many. Thank you, in advance, for any tips on this. PSS: I am familiar with the site search feature, it just isn’t as fast a method as saving would be.
Proud member of the Robert Morris Society
What's wrong with bookmarking them? -nt-
Beaglescout (Diary) Thursday, December 17th at 11:34AM EST (link)“A nation which can prefer disgrace to danger is prepared for a master, and deserves one.”
Pilgrim, Karl Rove Sent You a Present
Swamp_Yankee (Diary) Wednesday, December 9th at 8:46PM EST (link)http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704240504574585921173928460.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
thanks SY for that link
pilgrim (Diary) Wednesday, December 9th at 9:02PM EST (link)The only wildly positive ideas of mine that he did not cover are Rudy in NY, Clint Didier in WA, and Terrence Wall in WI. Great minds think alike i guess. :^}
Read that, Swamp. I was surprised (pleasantly) to see that Karl
eburke (Diary) Saturday, December 12th at 11:52AM EST (link)had donated to Rubio. Had kinda always had the gut feel that he was largely to blame for the GOP losing its soul with his over-emphasis on identity politics and GOTV over a strong, coherent conservative message (i.e. he pushed both the Prescription entitlement and the whole shamnesty fiasco).
Glad to see he at least got the FL primary right (and what a slap at Crist! Heh-heh!)
“All that need be done for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing.”
Unified Patriots