Things Looking Up For The GOP?


One may well think so after having read this:

Just as the economic news was relentlessly negative until the last few days, poll numbers for Republicans were horrific for months. So the GOP should be heartened by the first encouraging polling news it has received perhaps since Lehman Brothers defaulted in mid-September: Republicans have pulled even with Democrats on the generic congressional ballot test, according to a survey by a respected pair of firms.

In the new National Public Radio poll conducted by the Democratic polling company Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research and its Republican counterpart, Public Opinion Strategies, 42 percent of the 800 likely voters surveyed March 10 to 14 said that if the next congressional election were held today they would vote for the Republican candidate; an identical percentage of respondents said they would vote for the Democratic one. For several years, Democrats held a substantial lead on this question.

Democrats still outnumbered Republicans in terms of party identification in this poll by 6 points, 45 percent to 39 percent. Democrats also favored their own party’s congressional candidates 83 percent to 7 percent. But voters who call themselves independents gave GOP candidates the edge by 14 points, 38 percent to 24 percent. And self-identified Republicans supported their own party’s candidates 85 percent to 3 percent.

Republican pollster Glen Bolger, who worked on the survey for Public Opinion Strategies, says that this is the first time since 2004 that he has seen independents favoring Republicans on the generic ballot test. Although he concedes that poll participants agreed — by margins of 6 to 11 points — with Democrats more than Republicans on each of the issues tested, he contends that the generic question’s results are “evidence that voters, particularly independents, are worried that they overcorrected in the 2006/2008 elections combined, and now have more of a liberal slant to government than they want. They want change but with checks and balances.”

There is a lot more at the link, which ought to give cheer to Republicans as preparations are made for the 2010 midterm elections. My New Ledger colleague Brad Jackson takes a look at the political lay of the land and finds that Rasmussen too has Republicans ahead on the generic ballot. And investors love Republicans. Of course, Congress is enjoying surprisingly good poll ratings and the Gallup poll Brad is looking at still has the President enjoying strongly favorable ratings–though, it should be mentioned that many other polls have Barack Obama’s numbers falling to Earth. Bottom line: There is a lot of play in the joints, but those who believed the GOP to be as good as dead may need to eat their words.


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5 Comments Leave a comment

It's a nice poll but...

RedFox84 Tuesday, March 24th at 12:56AM EST (link)

This is like the third front-page story devoted to it. I think it’s time to talk about something else. Or we’re just going to look silly next month when the Democrats are up 12 points or whatever wild swing these things normally take.

 

Wonderful, now if elected republicans

beaming Tuesday, March 24th at 3:13AM EST (link)

would stop acting like democrats I might be incouraged to believe it mattered.

 

More work to be done

maddog (Diary) Tuesday, March 24th at 6:55AM EST (link)

While encouraging, there is more work to be done. It’s a long way to the election. Let’s start with NY-20.

The key to making gains is recruiting. All attention should be focused on that. Sen Landrieu was a potential pickup. We ended up fielding a former Dem.

The other key to making gains is open seats. Recall in1994, Sen Sasser (D-TN) was the only full term Senator to lose that cycle. All the other gains were from open seats and defeating partial term Wofford. I believe Domenici and Warner would have won re-election last year had they chose to run. The problem with open seats is too few open Dem seats. I don’t see any Dems retiring in the near future.Obama was wise to make pick nominees from the Senate that had D Govs to replace the outgoing Senators and were from states that went for Obama (DE, CO, NY)

Dick Morris said last night on Hannity that he thinks Rs can (not will) retake Congress. I believe that be optimistic given the fact we are still defending more senate seats than Dems. The real headaches for the Dems come in 2012 and 2014 when all those 1st term Senators are up for reelection. Webb, Begich, Franken are all mistakes that should be corrected. Byrd can’t last forever.

 

The First Line In Your Link May Be the Key

Joe Cor (Diary) Tuesday, March 24th at 7:22AM EST (link)

The relentlessly negative economic news, with Dems in power, may be the reason Republicans have pulled even. If the stock market continues to shoot up, will Obama and the Dems go right back up with it? I suspect that will be the case.

 

D's Dropping

ggross56 (Diary) Tuesday, March 24th at 7:54AM EST (link)

I wrote here that the GOP’s uptick is more due to independents abandoning the D’s than it is about people jumping on the GOP’s bandwagon.