I know – a brokered convention has historically not ended well. But I am starting to wonder if it would not increase our chances in 2012. Here’s what I’m looking at:
1. We have a field that nobody is rallying around. The Dem division between Clinton and Obama in 2008 was really all about excitement. Our division now is not going to have the same galvanizing, increased voter registration, all one happy family in the end type effect. There are major problems with all 7 candidates we have left in the field. So, its not just that we have a field nobody is rallying around. Its looking like we have a field from whom there is nobody the GOP can rally around.
2. A candidate who cannot unite the factions of the base equals 4 more years of Obama. Our party has such leaders, but not in the current crop of 7 candidates.
3. A more rapid organization around a convention candidate is possible now than in the technological stone age era of brokered conventions past.
4. The Obama super funded reelection albatross will go extraordinarily negative on all these guys, and particularly on leaders for 6 months, but coming out with a “clean” candidate closer to the election could prevent all that damage whereby Obama moves up by tearing the other guy down. Sure, he could still do it closer to the election, but the right candidate’s teflon and armor might not be pierced by then because they might not be able to pin the right narrative on them with such a short time.
5. Ron Paul – he cannot win – he will not endorse the other 6. And, like it or not, his supporters need to be part of our coalition to win too. There are probably some guys out there his folks could get on board with.
I’ve had it with each candidate, given them a second look, and had it with them again. I’ll still vote for whomever is our nominee against Obama, but I’d sure like to be able to do it with a little bit of hope.
Moe Lane
PG DeFreese
Victoria Coates
Daniel Horowitz
Dan Spencer
Look at which of our candidates can afford the brokerage fees, paint_it_red...
acat (Diary) Friday, December 30th at 12:31AM EST (link)then I’d suggest shopping for an appropriate new house because the fit will really begin to hit the shan.
Mew
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Caveat Suffragator
There are lots of problems with a brokered convention...
nathanalbright (Diary) Friday, December 30th at 1:01AM EST (link)…let’s look at some of them. For one, as little enthusiasm as you see for our field now would be vastly greater than the enthusiasm for a candidate that hadn’t been vetted or approved beforehand. The candidate would have to introduce themselves and their message to the American people, overcome the perception of corruption (more on that in a bit), and get up to speed on avoid gaffes, prepping for debates and retail politics, and so on. And that’s only the first problem.
Additionally, a brokered convention would almost certainly produce a corrupt and controversial outcome. It’s highly unlikely that any genuine conservative would result from such a process, since a brokered convention would be a way for party elites to find someone sufficiently milquetoast that they can “rally” around, forget the interests of the base. We already have enough of a problem with would be kingmakers who deny and seek to define (rather than reflect) the will of the Conservative base of the Republican party. We don’t need to let them do so without public scrutiny as would happen in a cigar smoke-filled backroom deal.
So, as a result of these problems we don’t want a brokered convention. We would get a bad candidate that started out with a steep hill to climb that would likely have no enthusiasm with a large body of Republicans except for a few corrupt political elites who benefitted from backroom promises. We can do better than that by choosing for ourselves whom we wish to be our nominee.
Intelligent analysis, nathanalbright, but see I disagree in the sense
trickamsterdam Friday, December 30th at 1:45PM EST (link)that I think Paul Ryan would end up being the candidate. He’s a legitimate bridge between the R establishment and the Tea Party.
He didn’t run because he has young kids, but he clearly wants to be President…otherwise he never would have seriously considered it. And it’s a lot easier when you only have to run convention to election…
That being said, I think the chance of a brokered convention is close to zero…mostly because I actually think Romney is going to win this fairly easily.
The reason he’s going to win it easily, is that everyone is going to realize that he’s going to win in the end…so the fund-raising for the others is going to dry up. Then it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Where I disagree w/ others, is that I then think Romney will beat Obama. Not because he’s a moderate, but because he doesn’t make mistakes. And a sitting President w/ a disapproval rating above 50% means that he truly sucks royally…and all the independents know it..