Every debate, it seems everyone agrees about a few things – Romney is the most polished debater. Gingrich is the smartest one in the room. Perry has a better record as a governor than he does skills as a debater.
Everyone knows Gingrich’s personal history has some baggage. He was dismissed early as “unelectable” because of that and his corresponding unfavorable rating. But, in 2011, we have no perfect candidate. And personal baggage of a decades old divorce matter where no laws were broken should not preclude Gingrich from being strongly considered if he is in fact the smartest or most qualified candidate.
In two days, he squares off against Cain in a long debate. Let’s assume he wins the debate, just as Cain’s alleged scandals get more attention. Cain’s numbers would then go down and Cain supporters, many of whom will watch the debate, are most likely to flow to Gingrich. Undecideds watching the debate are also most likely to flow to the winner who gets much much more air time than any of the 6 candidates who will not even be there.
Then what happens? Rasmussen Reports had Gingrich in 3rd today at 14%. If he beats Cain and Cain returns to his pre-surge numbers, Gingrich could easily hit 20% or more possibly. If he gets close to or passes 20%, he becomes the new “anti-Romney.” If that happens, Romney is finished.
Why would Romney be finished? Basically because this whole primary season, Romney has been coasting as the “electable and competent” candidate. Romney has his own glass ceiling in the polls because he has failed to resolve questions as to his conservative bona fides and sincerity. The field has seen one candidate after another be the “anti-Romney” for this reason (Trump, Bachmann, Perry, Cain). Unlike these others though, Gingrich has actual potential to eat into Romney’s share of the vote because like Romney, Gingrich has the same assets they value in Romney. Gingrich is competent, experienced, free from any perception of radicalism among the moderate wing of the party.
The 2012 election should be a competence election. Having our smartest guy who can boast credibly of a capacity to balance the budget could unite the tea party behind him as well. Gingrich is a social conservative and a fiscal conservative with a proven track record on both, and his foreign policy bona fides might be the best in the field.
If I had to vote today, I would lean to Gingrich.
Moe Lane
PG DeFreese
Victoria Coates
Daniel Horowitz
Dan Spencer
Gingrich is my close #2...
Hammer2008 (Diary) Thursday, November 3rd at 8:16PM EST (link)If I am to leave the Cain train it may be to board Gingrich’s camp. Perry hasn’t sold me yet…
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Too much noise! “Noise! You’ll have noise enough before long. The Regulars are coming out.” ~ Paul Revere (April 18th, 1775′s eve…)
IMO, Newt is PREPARED to be POTUS
lastgopinillinois (Diary) Friday, November 4th at 12:00AM EST (link)right NOW. He has experience and connections with people in the know across a wide range of issues. No on-the-job-training required.
He would probably outshine anyone in a debate.
I am currently rooting for Cain, but if he falls in the polls and Newt gains I would not cry over it.
If Newt can gain enough ground to become frontrunner, it will spoil the democrats (and the media’s) plan to keep Romney on top long enough to get him nominated, then demogogue him to death during the general election so they can get 0bama re-elected.
Theres no way 0bama can win a debate against Newt.
In the beginning, God created earth to be an extension of his vast Kingdom and his LOVE was so great that he wanted to share it with man, whom he created in his own image and likeness and gave him free will.
To this very principal, the Founding Fathers of our nation decreed that freedom is a God-given in-alienable right of all the people.
Perry/Keyes 2012
jrmax13 Friday, November 4th at 12:11AM EST (link)lastgo, you make so cogent points. Newt in some ways is the last candidate standing. He’s a known commodity – gosh, that didn’t sound right. How about this? His political, religious, etc. views are well known to the public. I couldn’t even begin to guess his I.Q. ! I bet ava could though. Oh, right — wasn’t trained in WAIS was she? Nonetheless, if we focus too much on religious views (for example) we may end up with an unworthy candidate. Time will tell. I simply want to avoid a bullet-train wreck like Perry/Keyes 2012 !
Keyes???
paint_it_red (Diary) Friday, November 4th at 9:30PM EST (link)Why Keyes? Because he’s black? He already ran against Obama in the 04 Senate race and was a complete disaster as a candidate. Lost by 50%.
“It is not good to cultivate a respect so much for the law as for the right. The only obligation which I have a right to assume is to do at any time what I think is right.” Henry David Thoreau
“The means we use must be as pure as the ends we seek.” Martin Luther King Jr.
“If you want peace, work for Justice.” Pope John Paul II
Newt was a rotten leader while speaker....
californiagold Friday, November 4th at 12:16AM EST (link)Let’s be honest….
Newt is interesting to listen to, but his experience as Speaker wasn’t exactly a success. In fact, as others have previously mentioned, there was an attempt by his fellow republicans to have him removed as speaker long before he finally left.
Newt got his clock cleaned by Bill Clinton during the government shutdown, and that one battle did more to help Clinton get reelected than any other.
And while Newt gets much of the credit for the 1994 republican revolution, the reality is, he had far less to do with it than meets the eye. By far the most influential republican at the time was Rush Limbaugh, who did more each day to sell the republican cause than any other leader in recent memory. Newt came in at the end with the contract with America, but by that time it was already clear that republicans were going to make huge gains in the November elections.
I agree.
NightTwister (Diary) Friday, November 4th at 12:33AM EST (link)Just terrible. I mean, actual votes taken on every item in the Contract with America. 4 years of balanced budgets. How can we get a BBA if congress actually shows they can balance it without one?
The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter. – Winston Churchill
Well actually the framework was there...
conservativeparrothead Friday, November 4th at 12:18PM EST (link)Rush was just really starting to boom at that time, and yes he was a factor. But the reality is that the framework and numbers were already there. In 1992, 57% of America showed up and voted for someone other than Bill Clinton.
57-43 is a drubbing. The Contract with America focused on the Perot-voter, the “independent” voter who generally was fiscally conservative but turned off by some of the social conservative turns the party had taken. It seemed in 1992, you saw much more of the Ralph Rieds out front than you had in the past and I think this did hurt the moderate appeal of the party.
Contract with America had no social issues and really focused in on getting that 57% to unify and vote Republican, which it did.
if Super Tuesday was today,
themamabear (Diary) Friday, November 4th at 1:32PM EST (link)I would vote for Newt. I would love to see Cain as VP. I would also settle for a Cain/Gingrich ticket, but I agree that the crisis that the country faces today requires experience AND competence. Cain is competent (I think) but lacks critical experience. Even surrounding himself with experienced staff may not compensate … but if Newt were out of the race, Cain would have my vote over the others.