Reading some of the online and viewing some of the media pundits projections of Senate races leaves me thinking that they are way off right now. As such, I’ve compiled my own projections:
Highly likely pickups:
1. ND – Gov. Hoeven is a shoo-in for Senate. There is no credible opponent.
2. AR – Sen. Lincoln badly trails not 1, but 5 potential candidates. She polls anywhere from 10-15 down and in the mid-30s. They hate her in AR and she is finished.
3. NV - Sen. Reid may have a war chest and connections, but both Lowden and Tarkanian are in the RealClearPolitics.com average double ahead of him.
4. DE – Castle is running and Biden is not.
Fairly likely pick-up:
1. CO – Freshman appointee Sen. Bennett is unpopular on health care and not well liked. Norton is polling 45-36 ahead of Bennett on Rasmussen Reports’ most recent poll (12/8).
2. PA – Snarlin Arlen faces a bruising primary which he is likely to survive, but two recent polls put him at 49-40 and 45-31 behind Pat Toomey. Toomey’s Club for Growth and social conservative bona fides put him in good shape in PA to unseat the turncoat Specter.
Other vulnerable Dems:
1. IN – Yes, Bayh has a warchest and high name recognition, but he’s polling below 50, has pissed off the liberal base, and IN is a conservative state in a conservative year. If Hostettler gets in this, I think he’s got a great chance to pull it out.
2. WI – Feingold polled recently 47-43 behind Tommy Thompson. He is vulnerable.
3. WA – Murray recently polled 45-43 behind Rossi.
4. NY – Gillibrand is polling behind Pataki.
Outside chance:
1. NY – Schumer has never been a huge electoral success despite huge numbers. While Gillibrand is an easier target than that windbag Schumer, I think with a good opposition candidate, we could have something going on Schumer.
2. IL – Not too enthused about Kirk. He’s trending in the wrong direction, the Dems are still solidifying behind Giannoulis, and I’m just not seeing his base.
3. CA – Boxer is easily one of the worst 5 Senators in the country, maybe the worst. But, again, opposition candidates matter. Campbell is not impressing me, Fiorina has issues with both the base and her business profile is not going to be a big sale in CA. I like Devore best, but unless he’s the GOP’s nod, this seat is an unlikely target for takeaway.
4. CT – Blumenthal is cruising, right now anyways. We’ve got a great candidate there, but at least right now, no momentum.
Final tally:
Highly likely pick ups +4 (out of 4)
Fairly likely pick ups +2 (out of 2)
Other vulnerable dems +2 (out of 4)
Outside chance +0 (out of 4)
I believe that if we get at least +9, Lieberman will caucus with us and we’ll seize control of the Senate.
Moe Lane
Steve Maley
Dan McLaughlin
Neil Stevens
Daniel Horowitz
I Have Differences With Some of Your Senate Analysis
IJB Wednesday, February 3rd at 11:02PM EST (link)I have a different take on some of these:
First, while I may not love him, Kirk now has a very good chance against Giannoulias – Giannoulias will send Indies *running* to Kirk. (If Hoffman had pulled it out for the Dems, it would be a different story…)
Second, Coates is now presumed to run against Bayh – Coates is much better positioned than Hostettler to beat Bayh. (Or did you mean to say Coates in your original comment?…)
On WA, I personally think it’s a pipedream – Rossi won’t run, and without him I don’t think Murray can’t be beaten (unless the atmosphere in the Fall is so poisonous for the Dems that even WA turns on them, but I’ve seen no evidence of that happening…).
On CT, Blumenthal has great numbers *NOW*. But, you know what? So did Martha Coakley at the equivalent point in her race. Like Coakley, Blumenthal hasn’t had a serious, hard race in ages, and if Simmons gets through the Primary, I think Blumenthal’s numbers will start to bleed, provided Simmons has enough money to get his message out. Then all bets are off…
Right now, the two Wild Cards are Tommy Thompson and George Pataki – my gut feeling is that Thompson will end up running (in which case, WI immediately gets upgraded to “Tossup”), but that Pataki won’t. And without Guiliani or Pataki, I don’t think either NY Senate seat is winnable for our side.
So, I think – right now – we hold all our own seats (MO, NH, OH & KY), and pickup ND, DE, AR, NV, PA, CO; then we have really good shots at IN (with Coates), IL (against Giannoulias) and WI (with Thompson). It’s still too early to get a feel for what happens in CA (part of that will depend on the specific GOP nominee, and their cash-on-hand over the Summer). I think WA and NY are long-shots (perhaps, at best).
But it’s still early yet…
WI Thompson
proudgop (Diary) Wednesday, February 3rd at 11:14PM EST (link)I was just over at Political Wire and they were saying Thompson signed up as an advisor to Peak Ridge Capital Group today and they are saying its likely he won’t run for US Senate?
That is true
redtillimdead (Diary) Thursday, February 4th at 7:39PM EST (link)Which, imo, is great news. He’s 68 years old, and in Wisconsin, we can do much better than a RINO who supports ObamaCare.
I like former Rep. Mark Neumann, who is currently not gaining any traction in the Gov primary. He came within two points of beating Feingold in 1998. He is also a self-funder somewhat.
Nancy Pelosi can kiss my asstroturf.
Gillibrand can prob. be beaten in NY
renny (Diary) Wednesday, February 3rd at 11:31PM EST (link)but is Pataki running?
Maybe
redtillimdead (Diary) Thursday, February 4th at 7:38PM EST (link)Supposedly, if it looks like Ford will really bloody her up in the primary, he will run.
But, former Congressman Joseph DioGuardi is likely to run. (Yes, he is Kara’s dad)
He has some good connections in the Conservative Party, and he said Kara would serve on his finance committee. She’s got some great $$$ connections.
Nancy Pelosi can kiss my asstroturf.
I agree with your highly/fairly-likely projections...
Hoosier Economist (Diary) Thursday, February 4th at 8:36AM EST (link)However, I wouldn’t bet on winning IN, WA, WI or NY. Evan Bayh ALWAYS polls lower than he performs at the polls (when voters remember that he was a tax-cutting Governor and a fairly conservative Democrat). WI, WA and NY are heavily Democrat states with much better candidates than Coakley was in MA.
In the end, I suspect the Dems will keep control of the senate by a small margin. The House, on the other hand, is anybody’s ball game. It wouldn’t shock me at all to see the GOP take the House by the smallest of margins in 2010.
In CT, I think Blumenthal is going to have a tough time...
kyoufuu (Diary) Thursday, February 4th at 8:37AM EST (link)You’ve got to look at the situation… Blumenthal hasn’t had to run a serious campaign in a long, long time. Sure, he’s popular, but he’s got an ugly record that the Republican nominee can use against him. Also, he came out some time ago and publicly said that Dodd did nothing wrong in the whole Contrywide mortgage scandal.
Blumenthal is polling well, but I think that’s just because of name recognition. I think that once a Republican is nominated, and is able to get out there, that those polls will tighten a little bit. Especially with the hope that might exist due to the Scott Brown victory.
“There are more instances of the abridgment of the freedom of the people by gradual and silent encroachments of those in power than by violent and sudden usurpations.” — James Madison
“I swear by my life, and my love of it, that I will never live for the sake of another man, nor ask another man to live for mine.”
Name recognition is HUGE in states like CT and IN...
Hoosier Economist (Diary) Thursday, February 4th at 8:40AM EST (link)Look at Indiana, for instance. We have religiously elected and reelected Lugar and Bayh in spite of the fact that they represent warring parties. If there is a state to pull the greatest of upsets, it’s NY if the GOP can pull enough votes from Dems in NYC to add to what should be overwhelming numbers in rural areas and the subs.
You also have to remember that in MA...
Hoosier Economist (Diary) Thursday, February 4th at 8:41AM EST (link)Brown ran a flawless campaign, while Coakley was a terrible candidate who ran a HORRIBLE campaign. It’s possible that the stars will align again, but I think it’s more likely that the House will turn as races get local and votes on unpopular issues are brought to the surface.
For some reason I have visions of Blumenthal pulling a Coakley
kyoufuu (Diary) Thursday, February 4th at 9:03AM EST (link)I don’t know why. The guy has been such a shoo-in that he hasn’t had to campaign. Like I said, the fact that his record is awful might work against him. I’m cautiously optimisitc. Very cautiously.
I’m also interested in the House here in CT. Sadly, my rep Rosa DeLauro will never lose, but I’d like to see Jimmy Himes of CT-4 and Joe Courtney of CT-2 shown the door.
“There are more instances of the abridgment of the freedom of the people by gradual and silent encroachments of those in power than by violent and sudden usurpations.” — James Madison
“I swear by my life, and my love of it, that I will never live for the sake of another man, nor ask another man to live for mine.”
What about beating Chris Murphy?
zbigreddogz (Diary) Thursday, February 4th at 9:19AM EST (link)Sam Caliguri is a great candidate. He took Murphy’s State Senate seat when he was elected to the House and was Mayor of Waturbury before.
I athink he’s got a better shot then Himes personally. And it’s the most Republican district in the state.
“At the top there are no easy choices. All are between evils, the consequences of which are hard to judge.” – Dean Acheson
Caliguri is a great candidate. If anyone can beat Murphy it's him...
kyoufuu (Diary) Thursday, February 4th at 9:50AM EST (link)Truth is I forgot about that race. I’m not sure if I’d agree that it’s the most Republican district, though. Murphy won by 20,000 votes in 2006, and more than 40,000 in 2008. Compare that to CT-4, In 2006 Shays won by 6000, and in 2008 Shays lost by 12,000.
Of course, CT-5 has more small towns, so it’s hard to say.
Either way, if this state can manage to send one Republican to either house of Congress, I’ll be a happy camper.
“There are more instances of the abridgment of the freedom of the people by gradual and silent encroachments of those in power than by violent and sudden usurpations.” — James Madison
“I swear by my life, and my love of it, that I will never live for the sake of another man, nor ask another man to live for mine.”
I think you mean Coats
redtillimdead (Diary) Thursday, February 4th at 7:35PM EST (link)“If Hostettler gets in this, I think he’s got a great chance to pull it out. ”
Hostettler has a great chance at winning nothing.
Nancy Pelosi can kiss my asstroturf.