Okay, not likely. Maybe impossible. But though very improbable, there are at least 10 seats we could take back to even this out:
1. NV – Even the liberal Daily Kos polling outfit notes Reid as trailing both of his challengers – Danny Tarkanian, son of Jerry Tarkanian by 45-40, and Sue Lowden by 44-40. As Obama continues to press Reid into pushing a crazy liberal agenda, the generally conservative Nevada may throw him out. Reid has moved significantly left over the past two years.
2. CT – Dodd has been hit hard over sweetheart mortgage deals and lobbyist ties and Quinnipiac’s most recent poll (in mid-July, which means its probably worse for Dodd now) has him trailing Simmons 48-39.
3. DE – Though I’ve seen several forecasts rating this as a safe hold for Democrats, the PPP (D) has Mike Castle defeating Biden 44-36, and Susquehanna has Castle over Biden 55-34. Both polls were done in the spring, and I have not seen more recent polling data, but I would think the summer has made things worse for the junior Biden.
4. IL – Kirk (R) leads Giannoulias 41-38 in Rasmussen Reports. PPP and Daily Kos have it a tie and plus 8 (D) respectively, but they are partisan polling outfits generally polling several points left of actual results. The Burris scandal and Blagojevich scandal have the Dems in Illinois in worse shape than usual, and a strong challenger like Kirk stands a shot.
5. NH – Hodes is only polling a couple points ahead of Bass, again with no polling since mid-July, and over 20% are undecided. This would not be a pick up, but as most people thought the Dems would take it, its worth mentioning.
6. PA – Toomey has been on and off ahead of Specter and Specter has a bruising primary set up with Joe Sestak.
7. NY – If Pataki runs, this could be competitive. Gillibrand runs behind him in the most recent Siena and Marist polls.
8. AR – Blanche Lincoln is running behind multiple opponents who have name recognition in single digits in a red state with tough votes ahead of her.
9. ND – If popular Governor Hoeven enters the fray, Dorgan could be finished. Particularly if his health care co-op plan becomes unpopular.
10. HI – Yes, Inouye could coast to reelection. But the guy is about 90 and Gov. Lingle could present a strong challenger, defeat any younger replacement, and maybe even give him a run for his money.
11. KY, OH, and MO should be competitive but the GOP should be able to hold at least KY, probably MO, and have a very strong candidate in Portman in OH. All 3 GOP candidates have polled ahead at various points, and never more than a couple points behind.
12. The tenth seat to take from the Dems could be Colorado as Bennet is considered vulnerable and some forecasts have it as a toss up or just lean dem.
10 seats gets us to 50-48. If Lieberman does not choose to support the Dems for majority of the Senate, we could retake control. Given how Obama and crew are proceeding in Iraq, Afghanistan, the broader middle East and Israel, its all very possible.
A dream? Yes. A pipe dream? Yes. Still, its nice to think about it.
Neil Stevens
Daniel Horowitz
what about all the senate republicans who are retiring?
kyle8 (Diary) Friday, September 4th at 6:12PM EST (link)I don’t think we will even gain a seat, maybe one at most.
Like wise 20-22 seats in the house, maybe a little more. Everyone is getting excited about these poll numbers but we are a year out.
The Democrats have some real strong advantages and the Republican brand is still tarnished, and will be for a long time.
I don’t like being overly optimistic. I don’t see a lot of new faces jumping into the house races for the GOP yet. And races always tighten up when you get close to the election.
Now, a lot could change, If the economy really goes into the tank then I might be more optimistic, but in all probability we will probably have a weak recovery going on by then. The really big inflation probably won’t kick in until a year after the elections.
“Nothing works like freedom, Nothing succeeds like liberty”
Kyle
CA
redtillimdead (Diary) Saturday, September 5th at 12:03AM EST (link)You left out Boxer, who was only 4 pts ahead of Fiorina. Also, in NH, Kelly Ayotte is running ahead of Hodes
Nancy Pelosi can kiss my asstroturf.
It's possible . . .
BlueStateSaint Saturday, September 5th at 10:21AM EST (link)Because, right now, things are looking the way they are. For the Dems, they’re only going to get worse, as the Oministration makes mistake after mistake and sends their poll numbers lower. I think that, if Charlie Cook is to be believed, that those 25 to 40 seats that he says could swing will swell to 55 to 70 seats by this time next year.
Then, in 2012, there will be a terribly unpopular president on top of the ticket, and of the 33 Senate seats up for re-election, 24 are Democrat-held. There will be a massive loss that year. I’m going out and saying right now that, when we wake up on November 7th 0f 2012, the Republicans will have 62 to 63 United States Senate seats. Which means that the Dems will have to “take their medicine.” ‘Hope and Change” will be replaced by “Strength and Prosperity.”