The former Virginia governor’s statement on why he won’t endorse either candidate for governor reads more like a paean to the wonderful Wilder years. That’s to be expected, But there are a few barbs here worth noting, none of which are welcome news to the Creigh Deeds campaign…
On taxes, which Deeds has promised to raise and McDonnell has told us to read his lips:
This is not the time in our Commonwealth to talk about any kind of tax increase, especially those that are fundamentally regressive and will hit hardest those who are struggling.
The timing here is rich, considering Deeds wrote an op-ed for the Washington Post promising to raise taxes for roads — a stance the WaPo praised to today for its “guts.”
But it does seem that its the gun issue, and Wilder’s pet project, Virginia’s one-gun-a-month law (which McDonnell voted for and Deeds against) that seems to have sealed it. Wilder likes the law. It remains his signature issue. That Deeds was never on his side, while McDonnell was (when both men were in the General Assembly) shows Wilder is a master at nursing grudges.
And then there is this:
This in no wise is intended to detract from Mr. Deeds in terms of character or commitment to the task of being Governor. I find that he, as well as Mr. McDonnell are fine and honorable men and well suited to that task. The question before me is whether I support the Democratic candidate’s position in addressing these issues. I have not thus far in the progress of the campaign, and as aforesaid refrain from so doing.
This is interesting not in what it says about Creigh Deeds or Bob McDonnell, but what it has to say about Tim Kaine and President Obama — both of whom made highly-publicized, personal pitches to Wilder on Deeds’ behalf.
Wilder only bets on sure things. That’s he’s walked away from the track entirely this time may not bode for the DNC chair (and sometimes Virginia Governor) or the resident at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave.
And as for Bob McDonnell…he was likely never going to get the Wilder endorsement. Wilder has never strayed from his Democratic roots and endorsed a Republican. But he has remained neutral before. The last time? The 1997 gubernatorial race between Democratic Lt Gov. Don Beyer and Republican Attorney General Jim Gilmore.
Gilmore scored a huge victory that year and Republicans swept all three of the statewide offices. How much, if any, of the outcome was due to Wilder’s whims is very uncertain. But his neutrality certainly didn’t help the Democratic cause then, and won’t do so now.
Moe Lane
Steve Maley
Dan McLaughlin
Neil Stevens
Daniel Horowitz
Bad news for Deeds indeed
Stephen Halsey (Diary) Thursday, September 24th at 10:13PM EST (link)I live in the western Henrico County, red territory for sure but was not enthusiastic for McCain last fall (who was?) and McCain signs barely outnumbered signs out our way and were badly outnumbered in the city of Richmond.
This time around, McDonnell signs have been out for months and outnumber Deeds signs out our way at least 6 to 1 if not more. Even in the city, McDonnell signs outnumber Deeds signs.
Granted you can base an election on simple yard signs, but there is a lot of enthusiasm for McDonnell and there is a very strong grassroots organization. His message is simple: Jobs. Jobs. Jobs. And his message has been positive. It is Deeds who has run the negative campaign harping on an off topic 20 year old thesis which is a hapless attempt to hide who he really is….another tax and spend liberal. And I suspect it is Deeds who will get trounced in November. Not getting an endorsement from Wilder is very bad for the Deeds campaign.
Hit hard. Hit fast. Hit often.
http://twitter.com/stephen_halsey
I posted it today too
proudgop (Diary) Thursday, September 24th at 10:21PM EST (link)I wonder how impact it will have on African American turnout?
New poll today had McDonnell up 4 but it seemed odd to me when I looked at the stats on it. They had Deed getting 88% Dem votes but McDonnel only getting 78% Republican votes and Deeds getting 12%
Why would Republican even consider voting for Deeds?
McDonnell was leading Indep big although. I wish his lead was bigger although
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0909/27543.html
I am not a Virginian so I ask our fellow Virginians here who is on offense in race now? Is thesis stuff over?
I think McDonnell
Stephen Halsey (Diary) Thursday, September 24th at 10:37PM EST (link)Is still on offense, at least consistent with the message. He’s just released another version of his ‘I’ll be a jobs Governor’ ad in the past couple of days. He’s been relentless in that positive message of job creation and energy. Deeds had a brief media blitz focusing on social issues and the thesis but, trying to be objective, they were awful. When someone is faced with no good job prospects or unemployment benefits about to expire, the last thing you want is some politician talking about is a 20 year old thesis.
As for that poll, I just would’t trust it as far as I could throw Bawney Fwank. No Republican in their right mind could vote for Deeds this time around.
(and sorry about the typos in my first comment…)
Hit hard. Hit fast. Hit often.
http://twitter.com/stephen_halsey
thanks
proudgop (Diary) Thursday, September 24th at 10:55PM EST (link)whats outlooks on House of Delegates? should republicans expand at all in both houses?
Would you say LT Gov and At Gen race is lock for us?
Embarrassed to say
Stephen Halsey (Diary) Thursday, September 24th at 11:10PM EST (link)That I have not been following the House of Delegates closely at all. Boiling and Cuccinelli seem to be running strong…..I think the whole ticket is very organized and working as one campaign. Haven’t seen very recent polls on the Lt Gov or AG races but the last polls I saw had Boiling and Cuccinelli up in the mid single digits…….I think.
Hit hard. Hit fast. Hit often.
http://twitter.com/stephen_halsey
VA House of Delegates races favor Republicans
Scope (Diary) Friday, September 25th at 9:33AM EST (link)About a week or so ago, I read an article that said the Republican’s are in very good shape with their races for the VA House. This year, they have 70 something strong candidates, as opposed to only 30 something in past elections. Those Republicans are polling well. I have searched again for the article, but, I cannot find it.
Currently Republicans have the majority in the House, however, Democrats have the majority in the Senate.
As pointed out above by proudgop, the Independents are strongly in favor of McDonnell by a margin of 55-33. That’s a 22 point lead for McDonnell. Yes, Deeds, according to a Washington Post poll, is now only 4 points behind McDonnell among D’s and R’s, but, the Independent lead is significant.
Jim Geraghty, at NRO, had this to say-
____________________________
Doesn’t Anybody Poll Likely Voters in Virginia Anymore?
Over on Politico, they’re touting a new poll in Virginia that has Democrat Creigh Deeds within 4 percentage points.
Of course, the Washington Post poll from this weekend showed the same margin. Also, I found this detail surprising:
The poll showed stronger party support for Deeds than McDonnell. Eighty-nine percent of Democrats said they back Deeds, compared to 79 percent of Republicans who would vote for McDonnell. Among Independents, McDonnell leads by a significant margin, 55-33 percent.
Hey, it’s your voter model, guys, but if a guy in a purple state leads independents by 22 percentage points, I think he’s in good shape. Also note this is a poll of registered voters, not likely voters.
I don’t doubt that the race has tightened some; in my neighborhood of “Yuppie Acres,” Alexandria, I have seen a few more Deeds signs around in recent days, a sight that disappeared shortly after the Democratic primary ended.
What’s interesting is that the local Democrats don’t seem to be the least bit interested in touting or defending Deeds; some of this may reflect that most folks around Alexandria and Arlington were Terry McAuliffe or Brian Moran folks, and were never that interested in the guy from the county with no stoplights. In theory, if you can make the election a referendum on the other guy, it often works, and that’s the Democratic strategy: You’re either for the guy who wants to widen I-66 while bringing back the Dark Ages or you’re against him.
Having said that, I think most Democrats, if loaded with truth serum, would admit that current governor Tim Kaine has been underwhelming at best, and the commonwealth feels like it’s been running in place. Creigh Deeds isn’t an empty suit so much as he’s a three-piece-clad vacuum, and his term would almost certainly mean another four years of stasis.
I think if Deeds was going to win, something in the following list would have gone right for him: Sheila Johnson, NRA, Fairfax County Chamber of Commerce, Fraternal Order of Police, the Humane Society — yeah, the Humane Society — Doug Wilder . . . The Washington Post editors and unions can only take you so far.
Doesn’t Anybody Poll Likely Voters in Virginia Anymore?
Over on Politico, they’re touting a new poll in Virginia that has Democrat Creigh Deeds within 4 percentage points.
Of course, the Washington Post poll from this weekend showed the same margin. Also, I found this detail surprising:
The poll showed stronger party support for Deeds than McDonnell. Eighty-nine percent of Democrats said they back Deeds, compared to 79 percent of Republicans who would vote for McDonnell. Among Independents, McDonnell leads by a significant margin, 55-33 percent.
Hey, it’s your voter model, guys, but if a guy in a purple state leads independents by 22 percentage points, I think he’s in good shape. Also note this is a poll of registered voters, not likely voters.
I don’t doubt that the race has tightened some; in my neighborhood of “Yuppie Acres,” Alexandria, I have seen a few more Deeds signs around in recent days, a sight that disappeared shortly after the Democratic primary ended.
What’s interesting is that the local Democrats don’t seem to be the least bit interested in touting or defending Deeds; some of this may reflect that most folks around Alexandria and Arlington were Terry McAuliffe or Brian Moran folks, and were never that interested in the guy from the county with no stoplights. In theory, if you can make the election a referendum on the other guy, it often works, and that’s the Democratic strategy: You’re either for the guy who wants to widen I-66 while bringing back the Dark Ages or you’re against him.
Having said that, I think most Democrats, if loaded with truth serum, would admit that current governor Tim Kaine has been underwhelming at best, and the commonwealth feels like it’s been running in place. Creigh Deeds isn’t an empty suit so much as he’s a three-piece-clad vacuum, and his term would almost certainly mean another four years of stasis.
I think if Deeds was going to win, something in the following list would have gone right for him: Sheila Johnson, NRA, Fairfax County Chamber of Commerce, Fraternal Order of Police, the Humane Society — yeah, the Humane Society — Doug Wilder . . . The Washington Post editors and unions can only take you so far.
thanks
proudgop (Diary) Saturday, September 26th at 2:04PM EST (link)Can we retake the State Senate?
I ask cause if we control Gov and house and senate its great for redistricting