Comments on: UPDATEDClimategate: What to do with the computer models? http://www.redstate.com/next93/2009/12/04/climategate-what-to-do-with-the-computer-models/ Wed, 11 May 2011 03:18:27 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.2.1 By: acat http://www.redstate.com/next93/2009/12/04/climategate-what-to-do-with-the-computer-models/#comment-45 acat Sat, 05 Dec 2009 16:31:18 +0000 http://www.redstate.com/next93/?p=60#comment-45 Question. What "computer programs" do you mean? http://ace.mu.nu/archives/295373.php#295373 Go read that article. Then come back and explain which computer programs you're talking about. The raw data is tree rings and ice cores. Period. Everything else, the entire data offered by the CRU has already been processed. Let me analogize. If instead of doing climate research, the CRU is your local eatery, then their value-add is akin to turning meat, flour, butter, eggs, etc. into a tasty meal. The problem is, while the CRU will show you the batter and the plate of meat bits that go into General Tso's Chicken, they won't show you where the meat bits started. We agree that an open process is needed here. I believe we disagree about what data to start with. Mew Question.

What “computer programs” do you mean?

http://ace.mu.nu/archives/295373.php#295373

Go read that article. Then come back and explain which computer programs you’re talking about.

The raw data is tree rings and ice cores. Period. Everything else, the entire data offered by the CRU has already been processed.

Let me analogize. If instead of doing climate research, the CRU is your local eatery, then their value-add is akin to turning meat, flour, butter, eggs, etc. into a tasty meal. The problem is, while the CRU will show you the batter and the plate of meat bits that go into General Tso’s Chicken, they won’t show you where the meat bits started.

We agree that an open process is needed here. I believe we disagree about what data to start with.

Mew

]]> By: acat http://www.redstate.com/next93/2009/12/04/climategate-what-to-do-with-the-computer-models/#comment-44 acat Sat, 05 Dec 2009 16:21:54 +0000 http://www.redstate.com/next93/?p=60#comment-44 Converting the raw data to "correlated" data needs to be open. Why do I say correlated instead of corrected? Because it's what's going on. Tree rings tell us thickness and coloration. Chemical makeup. Same-same for ice cores. Neither tell us jack *directly* about temperatures. Perhaps it was very hot and very dry, perhaps it was rather cool but abundantly humid, plants dislike both, eh? So, what they try to do is to correlate.. bah, Go read this post over at Ace of Spades. Explains the math way better than I can. http://ace.mu.nu/archives/295373.php#295373 Mew Converting the raw data to “correlated” data needs to be open.

Why do I say correlated instead of corrected? Because it’s what’s going on.

Tree rings tell us thickness and coloration. Chemical makeup. Same-same for ice cores. Neither tell us jack *directly* about temperatures. Perhaps it was very hot and very dry, perhaps it was rather cool but abundantly humid, plants dislike both, eh?

So, what they try to do is to correlate.. bah, Go read this post over at Ace of Spades. Explains the math way better than I can.

http://ace.mu.nu/archives/295373.php#295373

Mew

]]> By: 6eorge Jetson http://www.redstate.com/next93/2009/12/04/climategate-what-to-do-with-the-computer-models/#comment-43 6eorge Jetson Sat, 05 Dec 2009 03:17:55 +0000 http://www.redstate.com/next93/?p=60#comment-43 nt nt

]]> By: 6eorge Jetson http://www.redstate.com/next93/2009/12/04/climategate-what-to-do-with-the-computer-models/#comment-42 6eorge Jetson Sat, 05 Dec 2009 03:16:49 +0000 http://www.redstate.com/next93/?p=60#comment-42 Ummm....Through them away, just like the data? (only half-joking) Ummm….Through them away, just like the data? (only half-joking)

]]> By: mschmitt http://www.redstate.com/next93/2009/12/04/climategate-what-to-do-with-the-computer-models/#comment-41 mschmitt Fri, 04 Dec 2009 16:00:18 +0000 http://www.redstate.com/next93/?p=60#comment-41 You at least need to have a firm record of what happened to the data between the raw stage and the "corrected" stage. If you don't have that, it's hopeless. As I understand it, they don't have it. GIGO. You at least need to have a firm record of what happened to the data between the raw stage and the “corrected” stage. If you don’t have that, it’s hopeless. As I understand it, they don’t have it. GIGO.

]]> By: acat http://www.redstate.com/next93/2009/12/04/climategate-what-to-do-with-the-computer-models/#comment-40 acat Fri, 04 Dec 2009 15:54:46 +0000 http://www.redstate.com/next93/?p=60#comment-40 Next93, I take it you're in IT. The problem here is larger than just "bad code". The raw data is corrupt and/or tainted and/or non-existent. What needs to happen is a total restart, from the data gathering phase. Go back and look at the tree rings again, go back and look at the ice cores again. Take new core samples if the old ones can't be found. (I'd say take new samples period) This project was engineered to generate a specific result - and not a scientific one - not to actually learn anything new. Dump it all and start over - with an open (i.e. published online, publically available) model, similar to how an Open Source project works. That would let anyone who has enough understanding of the science look at the project. Most importantly, there is zero reason why this has to be done as a government project. Not ruling out grants, but in the interest of keeping honest scientists who are willing to show their work going, it has to be done in the open. Mew Next93,

I take it you’re in IT.

The problem here is larger than just “bad code”. The raw data is corrupt and/or tainted and/or non-existent.

What needs to happen is a total restart, from the data gathering phase. Go back and look at the tree rings again, go back and look at the ice cores again. Take new core samples if the old ones can’t be found. (I’d say take new samples period)

This project was engineered to generate a specific result – and not a scientific one – not to actually learn anything new.

Dump it all and start over – with an open (i.e. published online, publically available) model, similar to how an Open Source project works. That would let anyone who has enough understanding of the science look at the project.

Most importantly, there is zero reason why this has to be done as a government project. Not ruling out grants, but in the interest of keeping honest scientists who are willing to show their work going, it has to be done in the open.

Mew

]]> By: izoneguy http://www.redstate.com/next93/2009/12/04/climategate-what-to-do-with-the-computer-models/#comment-39 izoneguy Fri, 04 Dec 2009 14:25:37 +0000 http://www.redstate.com/next93/?p=60#comment-39 Throw it in the trash. At the end of the day - people cannot control the weather and cannot control what our sun does. The sun is the greatest influence of weather on this planet. Period. All of those scientists need to use their talents to make the earth a better place to live. Not spending time makinf stuff up to receive government grant money from their socialists in crime. Throw it in the trash.

At the end of the day – people cannot control the weather and cannot control what our sun does. The sun is the greatest influence of weather on this planet. Period.

All of those scientists need to use their talents to make the earth a better place to live. Not spending time makinf stuff up to receive government grant money from their socialists in crime.

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