Gerry,
The whirlwind is intensifying for you, but things are still calm on my peaceful perch. I have more observations which I hope will help you decide.
You have reached the House in your political career. Your freshman (and women) peers have recognized your talents by making you their president. Your seniors have put you on prestigious committees and have you on a fast track to leadership. The President asks your opinions. Things were going great until the Senate passed an awful Health Care Bill which was only intended as a negotiating platform with the House in a Conference. And now you must vote that bill into law before anyone can change it; and when you do, no one knows what changes if any will occur.
If you vote yes, you will lose the next election. Supporters are telling you that polls show people like specific provisions and you need only explain them to win back your constituents. Some provisions are popular, but I doubt you are seeing numbers on forcing people onto private insurance plans, removing $500 billion from an already unfunded Medicare program, adding another costly entitlement to be paid with debt, approving special exemptions for Florida, Louisiana, Nebraska, and unions, buying a House vote with an Appeals Court Judgeship, increasing taxes by $500 billion, and authorizing Federal money (or tax credits) for abortions. The good provisions are not driving the anger that is swelling up in the countryside and your district.
Supporters are telling you that you can claim to not be “voting” for the Senate bill but voting only for a rule with corrections in it. If that were really the case, it would be unconstitutional. In any case, the whole world is watching and knows when you vote for the rule, you voted the Senate bill into law with all of its baggage. The President will sign it and fly off to Asia glorifying in his accomplishment.
You may be hoping your vote isn’t needed for passage freeing you to vote no, but this will not mask your active support and involvement from the bill’s inception and will provide no cover. You are behind in polls, your opponents have staked out their opposition, and my reading from independents and moderate Republicans in your district is that they will not come back to your side in November.
If you vote no and cause the Senate bill to fail, your fast track career as a Democrat in the House under this regime is over. The President and Speaker are saying this publically. It won’t matter that you have carried their water in committee or voted their way on previous measures; you will have broken that cardinal rule for newbies: “To get along, go along” spoken so eloquently by a former Speaker whose name is on either your office building or the other one. As a lowly first termer from an unsafe district, you will be an easy target for “discipline”.
Being a student of history and politics, you know that a Lyndon Johnson would never have put you in this position; but Obama and Pelosi, whose egos and ambitions match that Texan’s, lack his legislative talent and skills. You are now in that “Profiles in Courage” zone, but what you do may or may not be recorded beyond your friends and family. That is your predicament.
I can tell you what I would do, but I don’t stand in your shoes, so it’s only free advice. I would run right into the guns. I would publically say this bill is unacceptable; despite the Reconciliation cover, there is no way to fix it because of the election of Senator Brown; my friends and constituents sent me here to lead and that is what I am doing. They didn’t send me here to vote against their interests, and this Senate bill is not in their interest or anyone else’s. You might be surprised how many of your colleagues join your cause and frighten your leaders into submission.
In any case, when Hell’s fury does come down on your head from above, you can always use the old George Wallace tactic and run against them. After all this is Virginia.
As always, I wish you only the best and hope these ramblings are of some help.