…

Perhaps if this trend continues we can get enough of a Republican majority in the House that combined with a Republican majority in the Senate and acquiescence by Democrats not wishing to join their extinct colleagues from the 2010 election that we can repeal Obama’s destructive transgressions against America and set the country straight – and even better to do so with a Republican party where the herd of RINOs has been substantially cleared. Ah, one can dream

I predict the polls will bottom out for Dems come October. Reasons, many of us had made up our minds and feeling election fatigue not happening soon enough. About 10 days before election Tuesday, the MSM will cheer how Obama is “coming back”. But it won’t come back anywhere with significance.

There are independents who consider themselves savvy for two weeks in a year there is an election. They want to be made to feel important. They’ll be an even 50/50 split with and against Obama. The MSM will report the indies are “coming back”.

There will be last minute appeals to give ObamaCare a chance because it benefits everyone but you.

1894.

Dems numbers where in the House after the ’94 election would you ? For some reason I thought they much lower than the numbers you gave above.

IMHO, this sort of thing is nice to read about but its still too early to get happy. The only poll that counts is the one on Nov 2 and a lot can still happen between now and then.

Stay focused folks (just sayin….)

anything over what we need to pick up the house it will be a major major victory.

What gives me the most hope is that the guys we have in the race now, tend to be a lot more conesrvative than the older bunch of politicians who ran last time.

Take that to the nearest bank that hasn’t been nationalized yet.

http://libertyatstake.blogspot.com/
“Because the Only Good Progressive is a Failed Progressive”

So, let’s use Neil’s Gallup results of a two-party swing of +22 (i.e. one-party R ‘swing’ of R+11), and plug it into The Swingometer:

Your result R+60 seats.

However, here’s what the Swingometer is *missing* using its simple analysis:

OPEN SEATS:
AR-01 (likely R)
AR-02 (leaning R)
IN-08 (leaning R)
MA-10 (leaning D(?))
MI-01 (toss-up)
TN-08 (leaning R)
WA-03 (likely R (based on ‘jungle’ primary results)

UNEXPECTEDLY ‘ENDANGERED’ DEM INCUMBENTS:
FL-02 (toss-up)
IL-11 (leaning R)
IL-17 (toss-up(?))
MO-04 (toss-up)
ND-AL (leaning R)
NY-20 (toss-up(?))
SC-05 (toss-up)
SD-AL (leaning R)
VA-09 (leaning D(?))
WA-02 (leaning D(?))

A FEW OTHER CHANCES:
CO-03
CO-07
FL-22
NC-02
NC-07
NC-11
WI-03
etc.

But, of course, The Swingometer also takes down a few Dems that may hold on – e.g. ID-01 (Minnick), TX-27 (Ortiz)(?).

BOTTOM LINE: As Neil is the first to admit, there is real reason to think that The Swingometer is actually *under-counting* GOP gains.

The GOP now leads in every currently held Republican seat, including seats once considered vulnerable: Florida, Kentucky, Missouri, Ohio and New Hampshire.

Republicans hold solid leads: Arkansas, Delaware, Indiana, North Dakota and Pennsylvania.

Republicans hold a narrow lead: Colorado and Washington.

The race is essentially tied: Illinois, Nevada and Wisconsin.

Vulnerable seats where Democrats hold rapidly shrinking leads: California, Connecticut and West Virginia.

Gillibrand can be defeated: New York.

like its 2006 or 1986. Candidates still need more money-more calls need to be made–talk to more people–

We got it make happen. Don’t then +11 but then we have one more chance to salvage a win

I am writting more checks this week

This was supposed to be a landslide for Manchin. And 70% of WV voters disapprove of Obama,

Manchin 48% Raese 42%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/west_virginia/election_2010_west_virginia_senate_special_election

Machin was considered a slam dunk. With 70% of WV disapproving of Obama and a similar number against Obamacare, I don’t see how Manchin has much room to grow.

In addition, we can likely assume Raese has little name recognition, and Machin has 100%. Once voters get to know Raese his poll numbers should go up accordingly.

WV could be going red in November.

Gallup’s poll jumps around a ton. I don’t believe anything unless there is a trend. Let’s hope it sticks in the 8-10 range or goes up and other pollsters confirm.

Democrats are going to have to run hard away from Obama, Pelosi, and Reid if they want to keep their seats.

Pelosi allowed the “Blue Dogs” to vote against her whenever she could afford to spare their votes, but this was obvious and reported at the time, and their opponents should be screaming from the rooftops that when Nancy needs them, they don’t stray.

to get enough senators to filibster or vote DOWN any more SCOTUS candidates. We can’t have anymore of Kagan or Sodamayor. also shelve his appellategan and W choices like they did to W, we have to play as mean as the Dems did w/reagan and bush

ing you know what i mean

They are getting better and better at stealing elections since they failed in Bush v Gore. In fact many of their dimmer bulbs still think Gore won, haha.

Obama’s only Hope in 2012 will be a measure of SEIU and “?” formerly known as “ACORNs” success at voter fraud and intimidation.