Just a couple of quick points

1. Candidates do matter and close to two dozen states have not had their primaries. That being said other then IL8 I think the GOP has good to great candidates in tossup & leaning races where candidates have been selected.

2. There is looking at elections right now and then there is thinking about November 2nd. Campaigns do matter–great candidates with winning issues can move even likely to lean to tossup status.

3. How about those possible election surprises. Here’s a question for you–Neil–what could happen that move momentum towards the democrats? I don’t see economic recovery coming anytime soon nor do I see the deficit disappearing or Obama moderating his stances. Actually I see all the possible gloomy scenerios helping the GOP. Big unemployment numbers in Oct–a hurricane shuts down gulf oil production/gas to $5 per gallon–2000 point drop in the Dow. Lots of nasty that could happen that would help the GOP

And get rid of that goofy grin on your face. I know you had one while you posted the numbers. Have you no shame?

Sigh.
Georgia 5th isn’t listed. There is someone Republican running though. But the crazy Liberals here love Lewis.

MA-10 extends from just south of Boston down to the Cape and Islands. It went 61-39 for Scott Brown in January. Cook lists it as leaning Democrat, but I’d rate it a toss-up.
Much depends on voter enthusiasm. The assume Democrat front-runner, Bill Keating, has been all but invisible. His recent fundraising numbers are grossly inflated because of the $500K he listed as having collected, about half of it was a sleazy transfer from his state campaign funds. On the GOP side, Sandwich State Rep. Jeff Perry took about 400K this quarter, all from direct contributions.
Perry will win this seat if the primary(against former state treasurer Joe Malone) doesn’t get nastier than it already has.

This seat currently held by Dan Boren is listed at RCP as likely Dem,. Cook also lists SD-AL as leans Dem, and RCP lists this seat as leans GOP.

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Activists Taking Action: Unified Patriots

Maybe the Senate, too. That way he’d have a whole new bunch of people to blame for his miserable policies. Oh, and in 2012, he could say he’s all that stands between the Republicans and their ideas.

that for the likely and the tossup catagories –Cook flips a coin and calls one a tossup and the next one a likely. He ignores polls right now and does the coin flip thing

Cook doesn’t seem to discuss methodology.

Its an art not a science.

When you have AL SD with the incumbent down 6 points in alikely voter poll but you list the state as likely democrat then you know its just guessing

are some noticable laggards on money raised but its not too late but other factors need to be considered.

1. Volunteers can overcome money–500 active and motivated people can push a candidate in a district like ID1 over the top.

2. These congressional races-like PA10-are not the only game in town. In NE PA there will be a huge GOTV effort by the GOP to elect Toomey and Corbett. There is a very active GOP local effort there and it will be very well funded. Getting GOP voters to the polls in PA will not be a problem. our candidates there for congress will need to reach out to conservative democrats and ticket splitters but the base will be going to the polls. When you go through those congressional seats there are not many with solid organizations behind them

the outcomes aren’t really independent.

I bet if we win 25 seats, we win 40 or more.

record Primary turnouts for non Presidential years for the GOP in ME-SC-GA-AL-KY-IN-AR-TX-NM-UT-NV–gives you a sense of voter passion.

How about those states setting democratic turnouts for non Presidential year primary turnout. A big O or zero or Obama nothing. That’s right not a single state has set a democratic turnout record this year.

I might add that I can already forecast a record GOP turnout here in TN–looks likely for KS next month–maybe OK as well. democrat numbers look to be down across the board.

He’s still got the 2008 results ramped up on his old mainframe, keeping the Democratic numbers close by, just in case. There are many races that are in flux that Cook is not including. That’s okay. The skewed polls are not bad either. Information, good reliable information allows political operatives to target the most vulnerable races and funnel money and talent into those areas. The more the Democrats rely on poorly calculated results and hopey changey standards, the more likely we can turn some more of these districts they think are ‘safe’. If we really pour on the efforts, we could see some really big surprises in November. The Democratic Party is suffering under the Ostrich Effect right now with Nancy taking little Bobby Gibbs out to the woodshed. The longer they live in delusional stupor, the more ground we can make up this summer.
I just hope the Bamster starts politicking in some of these districts while Rome burns. It makes him look even more inept.

49%R–44% D–registered voters–looks alot like Rasmussen +9 R generic among likely voters

If we see net job losses over the next three months–it will be brutal for the democrats