With the help of the Real Clear Politics, here are the last few polls of the Kentucky Senate race. PPP: Randal Paul +1. RR: Paul +25. SUSA: Paul +6. RR: Paul +8, Paul +7. And now we have PPP: Tie.

Why is PPP running so much further toward Jack Conway than the other two pollsters?

Now in the primaries the contrarian poll result was so often the right one, but this isn’t a primary with all the sampling issues primaries bring. This is a general election result, which should be much easier to survey.

So why exactly is PPP trending a good 5 or so points toward Conway, when compared with SurveyUSA and Rasmussen Reports? Rasmussen had Obama job approval at 58-41 against, PPP at 58-37. That’s not the difference.

Rasmussen has Paul’s favorability at 55-38 in favor, while Conway’s stands at 51-36 in favor. PPP shows Paul underwater at 42-34 against, while Conway is at 31-29 in favor. Why the sharp difference? Is it just different definitions of likely voter?

Let’s watch as these polls develop and look for more patterns.

Crossposted from Unlikely Voter